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On June 26 2019 19:17 Pandain wrote:
Rayn is assuming that Grack is town. Under that theory, there's no way that Kelsier and Shape are both mafia (because the last three mafia have to be within Ewya, Kelsier, and Shape, also assuming that Pandain and Jock are town).
If Grack is mafia, there's a non-zero chance that the last scum could be Eywa for instance.
Yeah this a problem.
I guess I'll have to try and figure grack out before tomorrow. Grack/eywa seems somewhat possible to me right now.
BTW that first sentence doesn't make sense to me, do you mean this:
Rayn is assuming that Grack is town. Under that theory, there's no way that Kelsier and Shape are both TOWN (because the last three mafia have to be within Ewya, Kelsier, and Shape, also assuming that Pandain and Jock are town).
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On June 26 2019 19:25 Pandain wrote:
Yeah I meant to say town.
Honestly the slam post on Eywa puts me against thinking he's scum, which is why I'm pretty certain there's at least one (if not both) scum between Kelsier and Shape.
What did you think about that post?
I think its more than likely that you are right, but just based off that one short post I wouldn't want to gamble on it. I had forgotten about that tbh. That does make it more likey that there is one mafia in ksc/shape.
Everything is pointing towards that anyway. I still think killing shapelog is a good idea, even though I'm still null on him. It looks to me like this although this plan could feasibly go very badly wrong, the chances of that happening given what we know are kinda low.
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On June 26 2019 21:04 Pandain wrote:
I'm upgrading Kels to a null-read and downgrading Shape to a slight scum read.
Also making Grack null.
Why?
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On June 26 2019 22:55 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 19:07 Jockmcplop wrote:On June 26 2019 19:02 Holyflare wrote:On June 26 2019 18:41 Jockmcplop wrote:
Hf can we talk about trfel please?
Him being town is pretty important if I'm going to go along with a shapelog vote tomorrow.
I can't see any way that trfel isn't town. He had the choice of 3 wagons, if trfel is mafia then at least one of those 3 is town and he can safely vote for them. He hadn't town read either KSC or shapelog at any point during day 1 so wouldn't have been contradicting himself. Both ksc and shapelog were being scumread by alot of players so no-one would raise any eyebrows at trfel voting for either of them.
I know you said its a just a gut feeling right now but can you see that the logic of the situation pretty much means he has to be town?
Nothing logical works in mafia, ever. That's a lesson you'll have to learn. I agree it's quite unlikely but I can't shake the gut feeling. I'm not sure that this is true, more like you can't trust logic over everything else. I'll keep an open mind but continue to presume that trfel is town unless I see something extremely convincing. To be honest Holyflare is right, there is a small chance I could do what I did as mafia and it's not worth ignoring. Yes it would be a suboptimal play, but sometimes mafia messes up. You can judge the likelihood and look at my play as a whole, but I would never recommend treating someone as 100% confirmed town for that alone. That said if you lynch me first while Shapelog/KelsierSC/Pandain/Eywa- are all alive, I think I'd (rightfully) be a bit annoyed 
Oh I'm not saying 100% town, I'm saying +90% that both you and ES are. Given the balance of probability of mafia sacrificing one of their own unnecessarily I think that's fair.
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On June 26 2019 23:08 Eywa- wrote:
So we're lynching Rayn tomorrow right?
Hey everybody
its
RNG LYNCH TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Because there's no point in trying to work things out. Just shout names at random and hope the game solves itself.
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So lynch shapelog with us unless he gets got by a vigi!
We're pretty much all working on the assumption that there's mafia between shapelog and kelsier so surely that's a good plan, no?
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On June 26 2019 23:28 Grackaroni wrote:
Jock is mafia.
Take your shot grack. I'm definitely not mafia, although I would like to see what you think you have.
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On June 26 2019 23:31 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 23:29 Jockmcplop wrote:
So lynch shapelog with us unless he gets got by a vigi!
We're pretty much all working on the assumption that there's mafia between shapelog and kelsier so surely that's a good plan, no? No, that's a terrible plan.
Feel free to explain this, or anything you have said so far, and then it'll be worth taking notice of.
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On June 26 2019 23:34 Eywa- wrote:
So I'm obvtown, I think we should check Rayn before shooting the PoE.
I disagree. I think the priority should still be trying to lynch mafia, and I'm fairly sure rayn isn't mafia. Unless you can convince me that there's at least some reasonable chance of rayn flipping red I'm not going near a rayn lynch.
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On June 26 2019 23:36 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 23:35 Jockmcplop wrote:On June 26 2019 23:34 Eywa- wrote:
So I'm obvtown, I think we should check Rayn before shooting the PoE. I disagree. I think the priority should still be trying to lynch mafia, and I'm fairly sure rayn isn't mafia. Unless you can convince me that there's at least some reasonable chance of rayn flipping red I'm not going near a rayn lynch. I disagree, you need to understand why there's a good chance of Rayn flipping mafia
So try and convince me. I've seen nothing so far to suggest that he is, hf's case doesn't even remotely convince me. You haven't really explained it to me other than its based off your own PoE list, but I don't really believe in that list, because you've hardly explained anything that you've said so far.
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On June 26 2019 23:36 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 23:30 Jockmcplop wrote:On June 26 2019 23:28 Grackaroni wrote:
Jock is mafia. Take your shot grack. I'm definitely not mafia, although I would like to see what you think you have. Goes back to this. Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 07:32 Grackaroni wrote:On June 26 2019 07:26 Jockmcplop wrote:
Grack: Stupid time to claim, don't like his read progression (it seems forced/unnatural). This argument that I'm following thread sentiment is pretty suspicious to me. I've given my own reasons for whatever push I've made and I don't think that's an accurate description of my filter. My reads have been changing fluidly. I don't believe Jock's have so far. Your reads are too confident. I don't see enough doubt in any of your play. I don't think that's your town play. The biggest shift I can see over the night is you upgrading me from scum to *scum lean* (I can really see the doubt creeping into your mind!) and then you assuring HF that Trfel cannot be mafia because of his vote.
Yep. In the last game I didn't follow up with my leads, I acted unsure, and all of the mafia that i suspected of being mafia didn't get lynched in part because of that - then we lost the game...
THis is exactly what i posted after that game (bolded for emphasis). I'm making a concerted effort not to make the same mistakes as I did last time which played a part in costing town the game.
On May 30 2019 20:51 Jockmcplop wrote:
I think I need to be more confident in getting people to vote with me when i have a read.
I feel like I should have got artanis on day 2 but I kinda gave up a bit. I could've had conversion day 1 also but didn't really go for it. Covnersion you shut that down pretty nicely well played.
Bugs we should definitely hydra on the next game where mods allow it.
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Just to follow up on that, and you can ask hf about this, someone has tried to meta read in each of my last 4 games. I have only ever played 5 games on here, and each time the meta read has been wrong, and each time I have said at the time that meta reading me probably won't work because I'm deliberately changing my game and I've played too few games to get a good meta.
Each time I'm ignored.
Hopefully this time, given that I've been able to demonstrate exactly when I said I would change my play (before this game started) and exactly how I was going to change my play, and its exactly that change that you hae pointed out - i'm hoping you'll listen.
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On June 26 2019 23:40 Eywa- wrote:
I'm sorry Eywa but something is lost in the communication here. Explain it to me like I'm a baby cos I really don't get what you're trying to say about rayn and kelsier. I don't think there's enough in that brief interaction for it to be alignment indicative to be honest, certainly not a case that makes it worth forgoing the two best lynches to lynch someone who's probably town.
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Voting shapelog
Not really here to talk though I'm freakin wasted
maybe i'll hang out for a bit but you won't get anything useful from me.
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On June 27 2019 07:45 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 07:41 Jockmcplop wrote:
Voting shapelog
Not really here to talk though I'm freakin wasted
maybe i'll hang out for a bit but you won't get anything useful from me. Ooooh. Is that different from the norm or same? Are you standing firm on all of your reads?
Is what different? Not getting anything useful from me? I guess that depends on your perspective
Am I standing firm? Fairly.
I'm interested to see what happens with koshi.
The more time that goes past without shapelog posting the more i want to lynch him.
Rayn still seems town to me.
Pandain/grack I'm not entirely sure about.
Grack is looking less and less mafia to me as the days go by but i'm still somewhat suspicious of him.
Pandain is hard to read this game.
ES/trfel i'm still townreading based off the last vote, that ain't changing.
Eywa, you are also starting to look more townlike, although I don't feel like I'm getting anything useful or interesting from you because I can't figure out how you're coming to your conclusions about anything.
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On June 27 2019 07:58 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 07:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On June 27 2019 07:45 Eywa- wrote:On June 27 2019 07:41 Jockmcplop wrote:
Voting shapelog
Not really here to talk though I'm freakin wasted
maybe i'll hang out for a bit but you won't get anything useful from me. Ooooh. Is that different from the norm or same? Are you standing firm on all of your reads? Is what different? Not getting anything useful from me? I guess that depends on your perspective Am I standing firm? Fairly. I'm interested to see what happens with koshi. The more time that goes past without shapelog posting the more i want to lynch him. Rayn still seems town to me. Pandain/grack I'm not entirely sure about. Grack is looking less and less mafia to me as the days go by but i'm still somewhat suspicious of him. Pandain is hard to read this game. ES/trfel i'm still townreading based off the last vote, that ain't changing. Eywa, you are also starting to look more townlike, although I don't feel like I'm getting anything useful or interesting from you because I can't figure out how you're coming to your conclusions about anything. Well, that's fair, I'm not really trying to build any cases. Somehow my POE matches everyone else though to some degree. Which... IDK, is it normal here for people to share the same POE as everyone in the game and to act on it? I would expect people to be suspect of that... OR maybe it is as simple as 3 lurkers?
Every game I've played in has felt different here tbh. This game is remarkably calm and everyone is basically on the same page which is a bit of a weird feeling but I like it.
I get where you coming from. I've not seen a game this serene on tl.net and my number one theory is that its because mafia is afk. I guess it could be that they somehow have this entire situation exactly where they want it to be but they haven't killed anyone and our only lynch was a hit so I would expect more movement from mafia to try and disturb things.
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On June 27 2019 08:03 Eywa- wrote:
Where else do you all play mafia?
I once tried playing a game on mafiascum but I didn't like it. The meta is different and I felt more offended by people's aggro because I couldn't detect much of a community element like there is here. The only other games I have played have been here.
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Anyway I should go to bed its not good to play mafia drunk when you have to try and explain everything you said the next morning.
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On June 27 2019 16:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe you're right and if you are it means (at least to me) that Pandain is not mafia. I am not sure but i got the feeling that Kelsier was pretty viable option at the time and Pandain was already on Kelsier. From my memory people showed more interest in lynching Kelsier than Shapelog, right? I dont remember what happened there.
You had a conversation with pandain yesterday where the idea to lynch shapelog and then PoE our way to victory came around and I think it was agreed that that is a good way to go.
I have maintained all along that ksc (koshi) is my number one lynch/mafia read. I liked your plan of lynching shapelog first though, it makes sense to me and seems like a decent move.
I'm also hoping that koshi shows up and does something, which makes me slightly more hesitant to throw my vote that way before he's had a chance.
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On June 27 2019 16:37 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I never said anything about lynching Shapelog last night phase but this probably makes you look even more townie than before unless for some magical reason both of shapelog / kelsier are town.
OK you're right you wanted a vigi to kill shapelog. I get the difference, but for me that idea works just as well using a lynch on shapelog (given that we have mucho time now to do what we want and get a nice solid PoE going).
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EPT
