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On June 26 2019 00:53 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 00:43 Eywa- wrote:
I think Grack claiming is weird, but isn't necessarily scummy. Scum have no reason to fake claim doc because they are setting themselves up for a D2-D3 lynch... That being a player not under pressure makes it more likely that it's town.
Players who claim under pressure have a higher chance of flipping scum than players who claim when not under pressure. It's crazy how the scummiest player in the game always tends to claim before getting lynched. But Grackaroni was not under pressure at all. He had one vote on him (HF). And HF was the only person pushing him. If you're actually the doctor, is this when you feel compelled to claim? And basically forsake your whole role because it's very likely you will be roleblocked every single round? And there's plenty of reasons to fake claim doctor. I actually doubt there's any doctor at all (and it wouldn't seem very balanced considering we have a day-1 auto confirmed town who happens to be an active Vet, and yes these sort of things do play into a hosts' mind.) And if there does happen to be a real doctor who counter claims, that gives mafia a free roleblock +shot on HF. Even for a dead mafia that's not that bad a play. Conversely, if he gets away with his fake claim, he gets a bunch of town cred.
Sure, but if he's not the doctor, we lynch him later in the game and there's no damage done.
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On June 26 2019 00:57 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 00:53 Pandain wrote:On June 26 2019 00:43 Eywa- wrote:
I think Grack claiming is weird, but isn't necessarily scummy. Scum have no reason to fake claim doc because they are setting themselves up for a D2-D3 lynch... That being a player not under pressure makes it more likely that it's town.
Players who claim under pressure have a higher chance of flipping scum than players who claim when not under pressure. It's crazy how the scummiest player in the game always tends to claim before getting lynched. But Grackaroni was not under pressure at all. He had one vote on him (HF). And HF was the only person pushing him. If you're actually the doctor, is this when you feel compelled to claim? And basically forsake your whole role because it's very likely you will be roleblocked every single round? And there's plenty of reasons to fake claim doctor. I actually doubt there's any doctor at all (and it wouldn't seem very balanced considering we have a day-1 auto confirmed town who happens to be an active Vet, and yes these sort of things do play into a hosts' mind.) And if there does happen to be a real doctor who counter claims, that gives mafia a free roleblock +shot on HF. Even for a dead mafia that's not that bad a play. Conversely, if he gets away with his fake claim, he gets a bunch of town cred. Sure, but if he's not the doctor, we lynch him later in the game and there's no damage done.
But how do you know he's not the doctor? It's likely he wouldn't get shot because mafia can just RB him every turn + that would increase suspicion on him if he's actually town.
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On June 26 2019 00:55 Pandain wrote:
I don't think Rayn is non-commital at all. He's hard defending Kelsier, pushed for SL, gave reads on a whole bunch of people.
And what new reads would you have if Rayn flips town?
Eh, he has 4 pages of content from just him, so I mean, yea... There was a shift to hard defense and some kind of push I must have missed in reading... But that doesn't change his early posting or how it poorly reflects on him.
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Also Grack is literally the king of shenanigans. This is exactly something he would do
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On June 26 2019 00:59 Pandain wrote:
Also Grack is literally the king of shenanigans. This is exactly something he would do
Sure, but I still think he's good to keep around, see what develops around him.
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Fair enough. I have the same opinion but as regarding rayn.
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On June 26 2019 00:32 Pandain wrote:
#summonJock
I know he would vote grack
I'm here now.
I'll be reading along with this until probably an hour before deadline then I've got band practice.
I'm leaving my vote where it is right now. Let's see where everything's at in a couple of hours.
Grack is in my top 2 for sure.
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
On June 26 2019 00:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Don't care. I have reads on all the people in the game except for slam already so i don't care. Do what you do and go lose.
Alienate the confirmed town guy that you can get to vote who you want. Smart play.
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Wait hf why are you voting grack if rayn is your number one big case scumread?
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
Anyone that thinks there's a doctor and a named townie is sorely misinformed.
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On June 26 2019 01:13 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 00:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Don't care. I have reads on all the people in the game except for slam already so i don't care. Do what you do and go lose. Alienate the confirmed town guy that you can get to vote who you want. Smart play.
You haven't shown any sign that you would work with him and haven't commented on Shapelog.
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
On June 26 2019 01:14 Jockmcplop wrote:
Wait hf why are you voting grack if rayn is your number one big case scumread?
Didn't realise my vote wasn't on him. Don't think I'll vote him today anyway.
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
On June 26 2019 01:15 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 01:13 Holyflare wrote:On June 26 2019 00:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Don't care. I have reads on all the people in the game except for slam already so i don't care. Do what you do and go lose. Alienate the confirmed town guy that you can get to vote who you want. Smart play. You haven't shown any sign that you would work with him and haven't commented on Shapelog.
I have commented on shapelog, I literally said I didn't agree with his case.
I asked him a simple question that required a simple answer. What was the bs in the thread that he felt like he needed to stop by town casing kelsier.
Also, why is his town read on kelsier later that he's playing proactively rather than reactively when that doesn't feature in any of his town case whatsoever?
How is this me not trying to work with rayn?
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On June 26 2019 01:14 Holyflare wrote:
Anyone that thinks there's a doctor and a named townie is sorely misinformed.
The setup is short two townies. Normal balance is 10/3.
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
That's why it's veteran parity named
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On June 26 2019 01:18 Holyflare wrote:
That's why it's veteran parity named
If you say so. 
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My mafia team is Shapelog, Eversince, KelsierSC.
Pandain isn't mafia.
There's a chance that Rayn or Jock is mafia but they're both town reads at the moment. I think Jock can be very dangerous.
Eywa/Slam can be swapped in if Kelsier isn't mafia.
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I don't have much more to add.
I don't think town will lynch Shapelog today and will likely lynch me. HF can say that that's my fault for claiming, but I'm fine with my play today. Aside from the claim I did more than most of the other players.
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I could flop onto eversince
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On June 26 2019 01:14 Holyflare wrote:
Anyone that thinks there's a doctor and a named townie is sorely misinformed.
100% this. It's possible but unlikely.
And especially when the named townie is HF. Hosts do keep these kinds of things in mind for balance - a host would almost never make all HF, Rayn, and me a mafia team for instance.
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EPT
