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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm going to try and focus on Pandain and Eywa-, I think it would be much easier to read Shapelog and KelsierSC once they come back and post a little more (which hopefully they will?), but those four are the four I am most suspicious of. Can talk for a little, then going to a game night. Sorry you can't sleep Eversince  | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm suspicious of Shapelog but not super sold yet, I'm more convinced of Pandain currently by a decent margin. Mostly for the reasons Holyflare gave, though his early Day 1 I wasn't a huge fan of. He's been playing better lately but I don't think that outweighs the suspicion. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 26 2019 01:36 Eywa- wrote: This. Really highlights how Eywa- leaves things really open and is willing to throw suspicion around at seemingly everyone. I don't like how he backs down from his townread of Shapelog for seemingly no reason, his townread first sounds much stronger than his later explanation, coincidentally while Shapelog comes under suspicion.I could flop onto eversince That Eywa- waits for Holyflare to vote for raynpelikoneet before voting (I think anyway? on phone, double check this) or at least really starting his push on raynpelikoneet makes me feel like he's hiding behind Holyflare, like he looks great if raynpelikoneet flips mafia, and Holyflare gets the blame if he flips town. Definitely worth looking at D2 imo. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Sorry. I'd love to hear your thoughts and I'll read them when I get back though! | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 26 2019 19:07 Jockmcplop wrote: To be honest Holyflare is right, there is a small chance I could do what I did as mafia and it's not worth ignoring. Yes it would be a suboptimal play, but sometimes mafia messes up. You can judge the likelihood and look at my play as a whole, but I would never recommend treating someone as 100% confirmed town for that alone.I'm not sure that this is true, more like you can't trust logic over everything else. I'll keep an open mind but continue to presume that trfel is town unless I see something extremely convincing. That said if you lynch me first while Shapelog/KelsierSC/Pandain/Eywa- are all alive, I think I'd (rightfully) be a bit annoyed  | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 26 2019 23:08 Eywa- wrote: I'll consider it if you tell me why we should be doing that?So we're lynching Rayn tomorrow right? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 27 2019 12:10 Eversince wrote: I'm here, if a bit distracted. What's up?Anyone about? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 27 2019 12:26 Eversince wrote: Honestly I'm kinda thinking the same as raynpelikoneet, just reading and waiting for Shapelog/Koshi to play. It really does feel like the mafia team is all the afk's, though I've felt that way before and it's never been true before; though I think it's true this time. I still think it's almost certain at least one of Shapelog/Koshi is mafia, and just the way the game is going on doesn't necessarily make me feel like there's an active mafia presence.. You?Oh that's ok! I am patient! Thoughts about what has happened? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 27 2019 12:30 Eversince wrote: I haven't looked more closely at Eywa- today, I'll try and do that next. Pandain I still think looks bad for EoD, he's really the only potential active mafia I see. I don't think he is 100% mafia, and if anything I'd rather lynch someone else because at least he's still active, but I'm most always going to be suspicious of him.Specific on Ewya and Pandain. I've spent far to much time on Pandain and Ewya's actions are bothering me so much because they seem agenda driven. Shapelog is my current choice of lynch, I just think he's been suspicious and afk and he needs to go. Koshi and Pandain get a little more time if anything to make the game more interesting. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Right now I'm most inclined to think Eywa- is town, moreso than Pandain. To choose between them. But I should look at both again. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 27 2019 13:00 Eversince wrote: They can I think, I just really hope they're not so that there is one active mafia Why can't Shape/Kosher be mafia togther? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 27 2019 13:01 Eversince wrote: My reasoning for being suspicious of Pandain is the same as Holyflare's, he's described it a few times. It's just really suspicious that he'd be wanting to kill anyone but Alakaslam, regardless of the rest of his play.and I'm so foiled on Pandain please actually just explain where you get the read. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I also really didn't like how Pandain voted for Grackaroni after he claimed his role. That's just not a good play for town, there is no reason to push a claimed player, and I highly doubt Pandain wouldn't know this. I once pushed someone who claimed when I was mafia and I paid the price for it. Something else I'm wondering about Pandain, what made him gain more confidence in his scumread of KelsierSC Day 1? + Show Spoiler [Analysis] + On June 24 2019 23:44 Pandain wrote: I think Rayn is mafia with kelsier On June 25 2019 20:54 Pandain wrote: (emphasis mine)Unfortunately I don't have too many useful opinions. Rayn's reasoning is convoluted enough that's it's hard to understand (and thus make judgments on) his arguments. I think Slam would actually be a fine lynch, just because I don't have a lot of convidence in anyone and better to lynch someone completely noncontributive. I agree Grack's roleclaim makes no sense, and I doubt he's doctor, but I'm unsure whether that makes him VT or mafia. I'm still going to keep my vote on Kelsier because I don't like his responses. I have strong town reads on you (eversince) and jock. Anyway feel free to push me but I honestly don't have more thoughts than that On June 26 2019 04:23 Pandain wrote: @HF if you're going to lynch a random, might as well lynch Kelsier. At least we know slam will spam up the thread later when he's free. Kelsier will just always be the same and be lynch bait every lynch in future even if town. On June 26 2019 04:43 Pandain wrote: Anyway I don't even know if I will defend myself much anyway. If I was you guys I would probably vote me anyway. Great news is that we lynch scum day 1 so mislynching me isn't a big deal. I'll just say that yeah I thought Slam was a decent lynch if we had no idea what to do, but I grew increasingly certain KSC was scum. And it still seemed unlikely to me especially later that with the votes this close a mafia would be lynched. And I think this is true, if even 2 mafia were active then it would have been easy to force another lynch. But yeah anyway sometimes in mafia you're wrong and you end up hard-defending the mafia with three minutes to go. What you gonna do To me, Pandain's increased suspicion of KelsierSC seems to come out of nowhere, it feels fabricated. His initial vote honestly feels like a pressure vote, then he seems to treat him not too differently from a random lynch. I just don't understand what would make him get increasingly more confident that KelsierSC was mafia over time, and more importantly I don't see that reflected in his posts, until after Alakaslam became the leading wagon. Also, I just noticed Pandain stopped being suspicious of KelsierSC and Shapelog, huh? + Show Spoiler [More analysis] + On June 26 2019 19:25 Pandain wrote: (along with many similar posts and explanations for why at least one of KelsierSC/Shapelog have to be mafia)Honestly the slam post on Eywa puts me against thinking he's scum, which is why I'm pretty certain there's at least one (if not both) scum between Kelsier and Shape. On June 26 2019 19:12 Pandain wrote: In my opinion, Eversince is practically confirmed town. Jock, Rayn, and Trefel are 98% town. Grack and Ewya are null to slightly town. Keslier and Shape are likely mafia. On June 26 2019 21:04 Pandain wrote: I'm upgrading Kels to a null-read and downgrading Shape to a slight scum read. Also making Grack null. On June 27 2019 07:19 Pandain wrote: What is this read progression? He went from Shapelog and KelsierSC as mafia to null on KelsierSC (!) and downgrading (!!!) Shapelog to a slight scum read, while previously thinking Shapelog was mafia.Extremely extremely town read on Grack that will never change unless/until more people claim. So that leaves Shape/Kelsier/Eywa/Jock for last possible scum. Don't think the last two are scum, but it's possible. First two options are afkers so it's hard so it's basically a coin flip maybe between the two. Honestly though I haven't done a heavy enough analysis to choose which one I will definitely pick, so I will analyze all the four tomorrow hopefully. Honestly I don't know what to to think of this, it feels mafia-motivated, like he started to doubt and then followed the thread sentiment. But sometimes I feel like town is more likely to mess up like this rather than mafia, as mafia is more careful... Pandain, I'd definitely like to know what was going on with this post, if possible. Looking back on Pandain's filter, he really hasn't done that much work... He's been very active, probably the most active player in the game (particularly Night 1), but there hasn't been much real thought there. Mostly he's just been defending himself and explaining things again, often things that other players have been saying too. Admittedly there isn't much new information to analyze or much original thought to be had, but that doesn't entirely excuse him. All that to say I'm pretty suspicious of Pandain, which is nothing new, but if you wanted words, here are words. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Raynpelikoneet scumread analysis On June 26 2019 00:50 Eywa- wrote: For Rayn, I feel like a lot of his early posts are somewhat non-committal. He wonders why I have random town reads, gives a couple random town reads, over justifies his town read on Eversince, then agrees on my scum reads conditionally (before I even responded to his previous concerns about my town reads). I mean, I don't have any one thing about his play I don't like, but it feels like a very cautious start from him. I also don't like the pun on the town claim. On June 26 2019 00:51 Eywa- wrote: That seems like quite a contradiction. He's saying that raynpelikoneet had a cautious start with a bunch of non-committal posts. I don't see this at all from raynpelikoneet's play: raynpelikoneet had some hard townreads early on, willing to defend them, which Eywa- even mentions. That's not non-committal, that's highly committed...The hard defense of Kelsier is also really weird. Really that's the only notable thing I see from Eywa-. Also, I noticed that Eywa- was not around for the lynch, and wasn't around for the Alakaslam wagon at all. This means he's effectively in the same group as Shapelog and KelsierSC as an inactive mafia who couldn't do anything to divert the lynch from Alakaslam. And I mentioned before how it felt like he (she?) was hiding behind Holyflare for the raynpelikoneet push. Honestly could see Pandain/Eywa- being the remaining two mafia. It would be nice to get more from Koshi and Shapelog, I would really appreciate more information to try and better read those slots. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm still a bit hesitant about jockmcplop too. I would read him as town, but I was very confident he was town last game for his open, honest play, but he was mafia then and completely burned me. So I don't want to townread him here wrongly... On June 25 2019 02:45 Jockmcplop wrote: Rayn just to be sure what I'm looking at, you're saying that shapelog has shown the ability to discern when a post definitely isn't mafia motivated and didn't apply that here for whatever reason? I don't think its a slam dunk but its definitely an interesting case. I can see a situation where someone doesn't apply a way of thinking that they are capable of, without having mafia motivations. That said, I don't really like shapelog's posting in general. Sort of pressured ES a little bit then dropped it, made that post about trfel and then went back on it later while still leaving room to go back to the suspicion if needed. On June 25 2019 02:53 Jockmcplop wrote: Vote count the last time jockmcplop was present in the thread Day 1:I think I'd like to see more from shapelog, yeah. Definitely suspicious. If everything stayed the same between now and deadline I would vote. On June 26 2019 02:47 Fecalfeast wrote: It doesn't make sense to me why he votes for KelsierSC here. Why not vote for Shapelog or Grackaroni, both people he's said he's suspicious of? Feels like he's just trying to be off-wagon..vote count day 1 Shapelog: (1) raynpelikoneet, Eversince: (2) grackaroni, eywa- KelsierSC: (1) Grackaroni: (2) Holyflare Raynpelikoneet: (0) Pandain: (0) Not Voting: Alakaslam Shapelog KelsierSC Trfel Eversince Grackaroni[blue] is currently set to be lynched. deadline is in 1 hour 43 minutes On June 26 2019 07:26 Jockmcplop wrote: What happened to his suspicions?(...) Null Shapelog - Could well be mafia.I haven't seen anything that specifically suggests scum though. (...) And he also qualifies as an AFK mafia at end of day, just like Shapelog and KelsierSC and Eywa-. Honestly I'm kinda null on jockmcplop, in my opinion he has a killer scum game and I haven't seen him do anything super townie here. I'm probably just being paranoid... but I'm a bit suspicious. Voting for Pandain, I'm currently more convinced about him than Shapelog. Miiiiight change it later, I think this game would be more fun with Pandain in and Shapelog dead, but for now that's my vote. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 27 2019 14:36 Eversince wrote: Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this a good reason to be suspicious of Pandain? If it is as you say?Pandain has been useless but he hasn't tried to mask why. He's active enough but not actually trying to push for anything is why. I could definitely see that mafia team being a possibility but currently I think Pandain is the best individual shot at being mafia so he gets my vote. I would like to think more about Eywa-, they could maybe be worth considering for today, and I really am not opposed to lynching Shapelog just for maximum fun. Can I ask how you feel Eywa- is pushing a mafia agenda? To me it feels like he's only pushing raynpelikoneet, and otherwise not doing a ton. Just trying to understand what you mean by that exactly. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 27 2019 14:40 Eversince wrote: Mostly because I townread jockmcplop last game and he was mafia, at a glance I don't see any difference from his play there in this game. How could I not be at least a little suspicious of him?I haven't read that latest post through. But why questioning on Jock? I don't have many good reasons why he's town either, why is everyone else townreading him so easily? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Yeah, that all makes enough sense anyway (@everything since my last post). On June 26 2019 14:33 raynpelikoneet wrote: Jumping way back to this. What about Pandain and Eywa-? Eywa- wasn't present at End of Day, and Pandain did everything possible to try and save Alakaslam already.Like do you completely understand the argument why at least one of Kelsier / Shapelog has to be mafia? If you don't agree with it can you please show me a pair who cannot put their votes onto either Shape / Kels and save slam not being outright caught? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 27 2019 15:00 raynpelikoneet wrote: My take is that Eywa- wouldn't have a plan and just push you without thinking ahead. Heck, I probably wouldn't have thought that far ahead if I were mafia. Pandain can, Eywa- feels like the stubborn player who would do their own thing as mafia.I think they would have consolidated earlier, or at least kept their options open for consolidation in case it comes to Slam (i think Pandain might have been possible too maybe in some world) being lynch target.I have played as mafia with Pandain and he is not a stupid mafia player, idk it's probably best put that i dont really see them having any mafia plan together. I get what you're saying, and it's not super likely, but I feel like it's not outside the realm of possibility. | ||
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