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End of the World Party Mafia - Page 407

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18246 Posts
March 14 2019 08:54 GMT
#8121
Tomorrow there's going to be 15 ppl alive if the KP stays the same. Pretty sure if you don't lynch scum, it's over:

Formula 1: #scum/2 rounded up (traitor doesn't count)
10 town vs 5 scum
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 8v4
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 6v3
Lynch scum, kill 1 town: 5v2
Breathing space: town bought themselves a final mislynch.

If you lynch town:
Lynch town, kill 3 town: 6v5
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 4v4 and it's over.

So HAVE TO kill 3 scum in a row.

Formula 2: flat 3 KP, unknown number of mafia:
15-X vs X
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 12 - X vs X - 1.
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 9 - X vs X - 2.
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 6 - X vs X - 3.
Lunch scum, kill 3 town??? 3- X vs X - 4.

This obviously cannot continue and the last scum must be dead here, so X <= 4 in this scenario.
X < 4 would make the scumread too small for the game, IMHO. So balance says that scum should be exactly 4 here, and to win, town needs to kill all scum in a row, starting now.


So what I'll do tonight is give you a list of the 4 scummiest shits and you lynch them in order. If KP stays 3, then you are in the bottom scenario and every day is lylo. If you're in the top scenario, you can take a brief breath after killing the three scummers.

Obviously I'm expecting to be dead tomorrow, but maybe there's a backup medic. Who knows.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
March 14 2019 09:04 GMT
#8122
Acro just accept your fate with me. We're both going to be shot tonight and then scum will push exo or someone random.

Last thing I will do tonight is listening to the dead zone radio.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
March 14 2019 09:06 GMT
#8123
Sentinel is mvp this game for sure

Root cause for this shitty game of continual town v town

Amazing job as traitor

Playes it to perfection
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
March 14 2019 13:16 GMT
#8124
Great thoughts come in shower

Oats is scum because of how hard i had to try for him to comment on my scum case on ace

He pretty much hedged as much as he could

Onegu or oats tomorrow

I dont care what order as long as they are the next 2
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
March 14 2019 13:19 GMT
#8125
Oo and darthfoley to finish off top 3

My notes on him are legit
Content reads good. Hes clearly not a muppet.
Yet somehow his vote is always on worst option for town.

Muppet vote and non muppet posts = scum

Next 3 lynches

Onegu / oatsmaster and then darthfoley
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 14 2019 14:24 GMT
#8126
Just woke up:
On March 14 2019 13:24 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 14 2019 13:00 LightningStrike wrote:
Mocsta didn't you claim a parity check on someone earlier?
Cos Pandain made it public

So just Pandain and noone else then right?
On March 14 2019 15:52 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
LightningStrike calls in with the following answer:
Show nested quote +
On March 14 2019 12:08 LightningStrike wrote:
On March 14 2019 11:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Faithful listener LightningStrike calls in:
On March 14 2019 11:20 LightningStrike wrote:
I took some time off I think it was TvT for Tubesock vs Chez which makes me sad. It kinda shitty but we have to deal with it.

What's making you change your mind on TS? I don't like how TS rolled over at the end, and unlike some others, I don't believe it's necessarily a town tell. For me that's not alignment-indicative, so I think the previous case still stands.

Because if he was scum then why would town just move all over the place they did EoD?

We're not sure this explanation makes sense. Town shouldn't know whether he's scum or not for sure, so them moving around at the end of day shouldn't matter too much based on TS' alignment? This town has gotten cold feet on plenty of votes, we can look back at the D1 conversion vote, for example, and Vivax acted similarly then as well.

Some people didn't seem convinced by the arguments against TS and tunnelled in on Chez or looked for alternate lynches. This led to lots of churn near the end of the day. We think at least some of this was scum trying to get people off TS or Onegu. Maybe it wasn't reflected in the votes, but some of the counter wagons proposed should be looked at.

I think Moscta mentioned that it could of been to prevent Onegu from being lynched thus making it possible based on votes Onegu could have a real chance of being scum.
Also Moscta I was called the town puppy since Horns of Africa by Eden of all people kinda funny to see how you described me XD
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
March 14 2019 15:08 GMT
#8127
Those last minute shenanigans were absolutely to save onegu imo. He goes first tomorrow. I can't fucking believe people still lynched chez after the town seal and acros explanation of the claim but whatever. I still think we've got a decent shot to win this.
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 14 2019 15:15 GMT
#8128
Ya I royally fucked up EoD mainly even with his seal his claim was becoming more unbelievable for me honestly.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 14 2019 15:16 GMT
#8129
+ Show Spoiler +
Beto announced he is running for nomination for president makes up for how shitty yesterday was for me
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
March 14 2019 15:26 GMT
#8130
My plan at this point is to sheep the shit out of acros reads whether he lives tonight or not. His deconstruction of the chez thing shows a better understanding of this game than anyone else so far.
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
March 14 2019 15:54 GMT
#8131
I am 3p survivor.

Don’t really care who I win with, plz don’t Lynch me...
Try TL Mafia!!!
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 14 2019 15:55 GMT
#8132
My logs with Rels take as you will only censoring a name due to the name being who I want to mason:
+ Show Spoiler +

142
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
10:23 PM ET (US)
EDIT

DELETE

Rels you mind if I share what we talked about in the entire qt up to this point?
141
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
08:37 PM ET (US)
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This was likely a Town vs Town lynch. Really need to dive the people on the other wagons.
140
Rels
03-13-2019
07:51 PM ET (US)
just step out and come back tomorrow then
I'll do the same, I'm not angry at all lol but just a little bit demotivated that Chez was town.
139
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
07:49 PM ET (US)
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This game actually is making me mad I going have to take break or I end up telling someone to step on a lego.
138
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
07:45 PM ET (US)
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*********** I am pretty sure this is town ***********.
137
Rels
03-13-2019
07:38 PM ET (US)
dunno, I want to reread EOD 3 and D4 with the knowledge that Chez is town
who would you suggest inviting to the QT ?
136
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
07:33 PM ET (US)
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So where you at in terms of people you want to lynch since we know Chez flipped Vet?
135
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
07:23 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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Ya I fucked up with my switch T_T TS needs to be lynched.
134
Rels
03-13-2019
07:18 PM ET (US)

133
Rels
03-13-2019
07:12 PM ET (US)
WHY IS IT SO SLOW
132
Rels
03-13-2019
07:04 PM ET (US)
If they're both scum that means nothing though
131
Rels
03-13-2019
07:03 PM ET (US)
ME TOO
What a burst a last second votes
130
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
07:00 PM ET (US)
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Super nervous about the flip hopefully it's good.
129
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
06:56 PM ET (US)
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/m128 Swapped because I getting super nervous TS lynch. He not even attempting to save himself.
128
Rels
03-13-2019
06:53 PM ET (US)
/m127 yeah I did, it was pretty good work I don't know how much it is alignment indicative though. But TS looks like shit outside of this. Like, WTF why is he not voting Chez? I don't understand something about that
127
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
06:49 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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So rels had you read my meta point on TS regarding his list posts?
126
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
06:15 PM ET (US)
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if you like you can post the stuff from qt so people will know exactly what I been posting in here along with you.
125
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
06:10 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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Onegu is trying to push me for stupid reasons still like wtf lmao. He using the excuse that I haven't rolled scum in a while and that I haven't played enough scum games to say that my filter size shouldn't be a indicator that I am scum lol.....
124
Rels
03-13-2019
06:04 PM ET (US)
oh yeah I just read the Slam page, I see what you meant now
123
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
05:59 PM ET (US)
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/m122 Deadline is in 1 hour and it didn't have much of an effect in my posting since it was only just 1 and the lemonade itself only had 5% alcohol in it.
122
Rels
03-13-2019
05:53 PM ET (US)
finally home, I think I have time to catch up as deadline is in 1 hour I think?
/m120 hahaha can't wait to see the effect
121
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
03:49 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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I brought a good meta point against Tubesock regarding his list post vs his other lists posts as either alignment.
120
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
02:36 PM ET (US)
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Man I such a dumbass I broke 3 bowls after I forgot to turn on the dishwasher properly. Talked to my parents about it and my mom told to drink a Mike's Hard lmemonade which has alcohol in it. Doing it for the first time while in a game let alone at my house alone >.<
119
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-13-2019
11:25 AM ET (US)
EDIT

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The thread is boring atm Slam is just posting stuff.
118
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
11:52 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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/m116 Good night hopefully you not to busy tomorrow!
117
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
11:51 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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Chez's role claim regardless of alignment is confusing >.< Tubesock's post was actually worse than I originally thought. Let's lynch him.
116
Rels
03-12-2019
11:49 PM ET (US)
lol wp then ?
I'm going to sleep, see you tomorrow!
115
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
11:46 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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Side note I might set a record for my biggest filter this game my highest before 28 pages in a certain mountain flavored game that I had thrown as town.
114
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
11:42 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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Also that feeling when your filter size is the largest one that is alive but it's mostly 1 liners XD
113
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
11:40 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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/m112 agreed
/m111 I did thought TS's post was meh honestly but didn't post it in the thread as everyone else had other things they wanted to talk about. Also I was getting a headache on his posts because of the possibilities from the KP stuff.
112
Rels
03-12-2019
11:19 PM ET (US)
and, I love Wiggles radio show p:
111
Rels
03-12-2019
10:50 PM ET (US)
TS post is horrible as fuck.
Mocsta's NK analysis is a lot of work, so townie points for that, but kinda useless: first, he's basing all his assumptions on the KP formula being number of scum / 2 if I'm reading his charts right, rounding up or down, when we don't know that; second, even if we could assume this to be true, the conclusion is basically that there are a lot of possibilities p:
110
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
10:42 PM ET (US)
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Well current thoughts since you are catching up to the thread?
109
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
10:13 PM ET (US)
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/m108 same mainly from his opening calling himself scum when he never does that as scum before. Outside of that I do generally have a hard time reading him.
108
Rels
03-12-2019
10:03 PM ET (US)
dunno, I am finally free, was a long day lol. Gonna catch up, then I'll see about the Mocsta post. About SL, I think he's playing his town game, you?
107
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
08:36 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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Moscta got a decent kp in the thread just fyi. Tell me your thoughts on it when you finish reading it!
106
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
02:20 PM ET (US)
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Trying to get an actual interaction with MZ today and see where it will lead. So far he going deeper into my scumreads.
105
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
01:48 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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I wish we had an option to lynch 2 people today both MZ and Chez are likely scum >.<
104
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
12:48 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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When you are around thoughts on Sicklucker?
103
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
12:14 PM ET (US)
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Posted the stuff earlier Acro still thinks you're scum from the look at things. Tubesock came out of the woodworks from not having internet apparently.
102
Rels
03-12-2019
12:04 AM ET (US)
nope, to be clear you can post anything you want from here to the thread, now that my role is known ther is litte point keeping interesting things here
101
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
12:03 AM ET (US)
EDIT

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/m98 I was just thinking of doing the same thing. Good night you mind I post that stuff we been discussing the QT in the thread tomorrow?
100
Rels
03-12-2019
12:03 AM ET (US)
yeah, both Chez and MZ are almost locked scum in my mind
99
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
12:02 AM ET (US)
EDIT

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Based on those kills*
98
Rels
03-12-2019
12:02 AM ET (US)
anyway going to sleep, good night
97
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-12-2019
12:02 AM ET (US)
EDIT

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I should of just said the night killed dead my bad for not clarifying >.< MZ might actually be 99.99999999% mafia based those kills
96
Rels
03-11-2019
11:58 PM ET (US)
oh you're talking about all the night kills. That could be interesting
95
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
11:57 PM ET (US)
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/m93 WoS thought MZ was scum, Tina didn't give a real read on him and needed to look closer to him, rayn scumread him??? Marv didn't say much about him???? Koshi did townread him. Hmmmm
94
Rels
03-11-2019
11:51 PM ET (US)
I don't remember them saying much about him, but the thing is, TW was killed because he was confirmed. Ace was probably killed because of that Oats theory. But why the TT kill? That could be why
93
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
11:45 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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/m92 Going to recheck the dead regarding MZ and see where they were at on him at their time of death.
92
Rels
03-11-2019
11:43 PM ET (US)
TBH I think it makes MZ scum 99% of the time. I thought he was scummy before, and this TT NK makes it even more likely.
91
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
11:38 PM ET (US)
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Just saw it and agreed with Oats regarding scum knowing the traitor. Makes me wonder if Mafia is trying to leave WIFOM at max levels with the TT kill if both MZ and Wiggles are town.
90
Rels
03-11-2019
11:37 PM ET (US)
lol I just replied to it in thread p: it's a good theory
89
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
11:32 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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Post of reference is his latest post in the thread: #7233
88
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
11:29 PM ET (US)
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Thoughts on Oat's regarding the Night Kills?
87
Rels
03-11-2019
11:26 PM ET (US)
yeah that's the post I was talking about
86
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
10:26 PM ET (US)
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/m83 Grack mentioned that part here: Post #6931 He should of been much happier about the Traitor flip than he was.
/m84 Interesting point
/m85 Kk See when you get back!
85
Rels
03-11-2019
10:19 PM ET (US)
gotta go for a little while, will check the QT again before sleeping. See you later mate
84
Rels
03-11-2019
10:18 PM ET (US)
/m81 yeah Chez claim is so bad compared to FF, FF was straight forward no BS, Chez was trying to insinuate he was hatter and got caught. After FF counterclaim Chez didn't push FF, but didn't really rescind the claim ... that's why I think Chez is scum.
83
Rels
03-11-2019
10:16 PM ET (US)
Im always very bad at reading Onegu =X I agree his push on you was bad but I don't know if it makes him scum. The thing that bothered me about him though is something someone called out yesterday, lik ehe was not happy with the mafia traitor lynch.
82
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
10:13 PM ET (US)
EDIT

DELETE

Also I not liking Onegu's push on me because he doing it for stupid reasons. Not sure how to call it for his alignment what you think of his push on me?
81
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
10:11 PM ET (US)
EDIT

DELETE

Maybe 1 of them is scum the other is town? Ace said that if we believe Acro's claim lynch Chez under the rule since host shouldn't just give 3 towns for him to shoot. Chez did his meta tell but you made a good point since its likely the last TL Game he could just break it. My brain hurts from the Ace kill >.<
80
Rels
03-11-2019
10:07 PM ET (US)
what do you think of the Chez / FF situation?
79
Rels
03-11-2019
10:06 PM ET (US)
yeah, the Ace kill in particular is so weird. I was so sure he was scum lol
78
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
10:03 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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Had posted some information that I could gather from the NKs.
77
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
09:38 PM ET (US)
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There was non it just was a fun night at the league. Wednesdays I play in tournaments normally but my parents are out of town so I can't go
76
Rels
03-11-2019
09:23 PM ET (US)
how did your tournament go?
75
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
09:21 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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I figured I wasn't going to die almost home.
74
Rels
03-11-2019
09:10 PM ET (US)
and yeah I was not expecting these NKs ...
73
Rels
03-11-2019
09:10 PM ET (US)
yep happy to see you didn't die p:
72
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
07:15 PM ET (US)
EDIT

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You can tell them you gave the qt to me I won't claim it without permission.
71
LightningStrikePerson was signed in when posted
03-11-2019
07:09 PM ET (US)
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BTW on mobile for a bit.
70
LightningStrike
03-11-2019
07:09 PM ET (US)
So you got me aye? These night kills were wtf worthy.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
March 14 2019 15:55 GMT
#8133
On March 13 2019 19:49 Onegu wrote:
Unless we see a red flip at night from being shot I’m not even going to think about it.. if there is a third party I would put my money much more on there being a survivor...



My breadcrumb
Try TL Mafia!!!
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 14 2019 15:56 GMT
#8134
On March 15 2019 00:54 Onegu wrote:
I am 3p survivor.

Don’t really care who I win with, plz don’t Lynch me...

Well better to lynch you then assuming a sk not a survivor
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
March 14 2019 15:58 GMT
#8135
On March 15 2019 00:56 LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 00:54 Onegu wrote:
I am 3p survivor.

Don’t really care who I win with, plz don’t Lynch me...

Well better to lynch you then assuming a sk not a survivor



RIP
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
March 14 2019 15:58 GMT
#8136
I wish I was a SK that might be better than being mafia...
Try TL Mafia!!!
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 14 2019 16:02 GMT
#8137
But you are the SK :D
+ Show Spoiler +
I joking but survivor can be used a SK claim though
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
March 14 2019 16:05 GMT
#8138
On March 15 2019 01:02 LightningStrike wrote:
But you are the SK :D
+ Show Spoiler +
I joking but survivor can be used a SK claim though



I guess... but I am a survivor.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
March 14 2019 16:06 GMT
#8139
Try TL Mafia!!!
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22251 Posts
March 14 2019 16:30 GMT
#8140
On March 15 2019 00:54 Onegu wrote:
I am 3p survivor.

Don’t really care who I win with, plz don’t Lynch me...


Bro play with town please. If your role works how I think it works you're immune to night kills anyway.

Don't say how it works at night though please.
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