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On September 15 2018 01:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:
we only need every other townie (if meapak is town it doesnt matter).
why are you so sure he is town?
Let me make the voting simple for everyone, because town!meapak does matter:
town!meapak votes town!rels
every other townie votes the same scum (4 votes total)
all 3 mafia vote town!rels (4 votes total)
You're now looking at tiebreakers to determine the game.
Do you really think the town is going to coordinate itself on a single scum faster than the mafia coordinates itself on town!rels?
As far as my read on Meapak goes, it's related to my read on you, which is a longer post. Don't worry, it's coming.
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Okay, talking about Rayn. First of all, let's talk about his actions on day 3. What has he done so far in day 3? He continued to push for a lynch on his strongest scumread, Kelsier, and has since been raging at/defending himself against pressure from Meapak and RoL.
Stop and think for one moment. What is the mafia's goal today? It's pretty simple: it's mylo, so they want a mislynch at all costs. As Sergio pointed out, the most votes any potential mafioso has had the whole game is one. They haven't exactly been pressured very hard. In other words, the town has basically been self destructing the whole game on its own. With all of that in mind, what is the best way to go about getting one more townie lynch? By waiting for a small bandwagon to form on someone they know is town and then to jump on it. Even better if the townie they are voting with happens to be relatively inactive. All they have to do is make sure that they follow the townie in a way that doesn't make the townie suspicious.
So, with that in mind, what would be the absolute worst thing the mafia could do? Getting in a big argument with a townie, drawing attention to every little thing they have possibly done that is even remotely suspicious seems pretty awful. That's an easy way to make themselves an easy lynch candidate in a town as swingy as this one!
So why would rayn or Meapak do something like that? They aren't even pushing for lynches on each other right now! The answer is pretty simple. Additionally, Meapak has claimed to be roleblocked and nobody has counterclaimed. This doesn't make him 100% town on its own, but it should carry significant weight.
On top of that, the mafia shouldn't be feeling a huge amount of urgency. Why would they? Although this is mylo, they haven't even lost any members yet! Plus, as I mentioned above, none of them have ever received more than a single vote.
As far as the voting analysis of rayn goes, it's completely bogus. Day 1, rayn was voting for someone who was accusing him and literally doing nothing else constructive, even after being asked to meaningfully contribute. Nothing obviously scummy about that. Day 2, rayn had a strong townread on vivax. When the vote was winding down, vivax was the lynch, and there clearly wasn't going to be a switch to rayn's favored target, Kelsier. Rayn saw the vote as being between someone he was sure was town (vivax) or someone he wasn't sure on (damdred). It makes perfect sense that town!rayn would switch.
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On September 15 2018 01:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:
also tell me why you let the shit argument run around in the thread?
Frankly, you're right and I should have made more of an effort to stop it. You will note that I made a halfhearted effort to stop it here:
On September 13 2018 06:53 Qatol wrote:
rayn and meapak, I think you've reached the point of diminishing returns. Is either of you seriously pushing for the other as the lynch target for day 3 anyways? Remember, we have to coordinate our votes or the town loses.
On a side note, rayn, could you please call him prplhz and not purplehaze? It's hard to search your filter for your posts on him.
I fully realize this isn't a defense of you, which I should have posted, but all I can do on this point is plead lack of clear thought (if you must know, I have to do things that aggravate a serious spinal condition and it means I'm not sleeping very well). I'm running on a full 10 hours of sleep now, however, and am hoping it helps.
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On September 15 2018 02:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
fuck why dont you guys want to vote for Kelsier?
Like what is the reason, you are just bnanging on someone based on a shit case?
pfffffffffffff.......... Maybe rels is mafia, but maybe he isnt.
kelsier is however
like he literally made two sets of reads (his own -- and the one based on night kills) and he played with the deck he found more comfrotable.... townies do their own choises, right or wrong.
My reluctance to vote for Kelsier comes down to 2 posts:
On September 12 2018 00:40 KelsierSC wrote:
I could lynch anyone apart from you and rayn.
(directed at me)
Followed, after being pushed a bit more, by:
On September 12 2018 01:14 KelsierSC wrote:
Because I can see the scenario where Koshi is lynched either for role because he scum reads qatol and it makes hf/sergio look bad in the process. But then HF dies unexpectedly and now Qatol is kind of fucked.
If this looks like a sheep and a massive contradiction to what i've been saying , that's because it is.
##Vote: Qatol
(Underline added by me)
That's a pretty fearless statement to make for a townie, going against your reads like that. I think what happened is he got frustrated by me pushing him on his scumreads (I was trying to get him to realize that maybe he shouldn't give so much weight to the reads of Koshi and HF) and decided he would trust players that he perceives as being better than him. You should know that this phenomenon isn't especially uncommon for townies, especially with a townie who feels like they aren't especially good at the game. I'm hoping that means that other people in the thread can persuade him to change his mind; my conversations with Kelsier since then have clearly proven that I cannot do that.
I'm not saying it isn't possible he is mafia. It's entirely possible he's only pretending to be a tunneling townie. However, I've seen the phenomenon too often to be sure. That's why I would prefer not to vote for him today.
If you can build up enough support for him today to get a lynch through, I'll support it. However, because sergio and meapak are also against it, and I think a scumteam of meapak/sergio/Kelsier is very unlikely, that means that we need to focus on someone else right now.
Remember, the most important thing right now is to get the town coordinated on a single person they all think is likely scum.
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On September 15 2018 02:57 Sergiovan wrote:
So Qatol, from that I gather that you read Rayn and Meapak as town, yes?
Yes
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On September 15 2018 03:06 Sergiovan wrote:
Qatol: Meapak’s RB claim is total WIFOM. Scum could easily have not sent a RB and claimed it themselves. I think Meapak appears townie but that isn’t a good reason to think so
Notice that my read isn't really based on that. I'm just pointing out that it's an additional thing that would have had to happen for scum!meapak to be true. Let me take this a step further. Think about who the mafia shot last night. Again, rayn spent a decent chunk of the night explaining why vivax was extremely likely town. I think they were worried enough about a potential medic that setting up the claim by meapak wouldn't be worth it. And again, this is just a supporting point to my main argument anyways.
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On September 15 2018 03:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Qatol would you, or would you able to make these posts as mafia, on this page?
I doubt it. Mafia!Qatol wouldn't be so eager to call attention to this being mylo. Mafia!Qatol also wouldn't be so worried about not splitting the vote. There simply wouldn't be the same urgency.
If you really want insight into mafia!Qatol, after the one game I was scum, I did a full writeup on the game including my thought process here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/92894-qatols-mafia-vii-experience
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On September 15 2018 03:23 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2018 03:20 Qatol wrote:On September 15 2018 03:06 Sergiovan wrote:
Qatol: Meapak’s RB claim is total WIFOM. Scum could easily have not sent a RB and claimed it themselves. I think Meapak appears townie but that isn’t a good reason to think so Notice that my read isn't really based on that. I'm just pointing out that it's an additional thing that would have had to happen for scum!meapak to be true. Let me take this a step further. Think about who the mafia shot last night. Again, rayn spent a decent chunk of the night explaining why vivax was extremely likely town. I think they were worried enough about a potential medic that setting up the claim by meapak wouldn't be worth it. And again, this is just a supporting point to my main argument anyways. I think you are misrepping a bit here. Probably 70% of the game (my guess since i didnt talk with anyone except for you and meapak) were afk when i was around at nightphase.
I'm not sure what I'm misrepresenting. This actually isn't saying anything about you other than you pointed out that vivax was unlikely to be mafia. I'm not saying it was scummy. I'm not actually even saying it was pro-town. All I'm saying is you made a relatively persuasive argument for vivax being almost confirmed town, and that it's likely that at least some townies would be persuaded by it. That makes vivax both a good target for the mafia night kill but also a good target for a medic. Because he's a good medic target, the mafia are less likely to try and use the roleblock to establish their own credibility.
Again, my main point has to do with how the two of you acted at the beginning of Day 3 not fitting what I would expect from the mafia team.
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On September 15 2018 03:21 raynpelikoneet wrote:About Kelsier, who are you taking about in this part: Show nested quote +That's a pretty fearless statement to make for a townie, going against your reads like that ?
I'm talking about Kelsier. Let me try and say this a different way: I think that only a townie would act in such a fearless manner. I think a mafioso would be much more concerned about being lynched for obviously going against their reads like that.
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On September 15 2018 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
can someone tell why meapak's case on rels is good?
can everyone who is not on rels or kelsier either vote for those two or argue why their case is better?
pleasE?
Give me a sec, I'll explain why I have a scumread on rels. The short version is that he dogpiled on me with a super crappy argument, which is exactly what I expected to see from scum.
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As I mentioned in post #606, I think the mafia are basically on cruise control right now. Anyone who has been reading the thread (or at least who has looked at Meapak's post #450) knows that I am on the scumlist of literally almost everyone. Regardless of what you think about my alignment, this makes me an easy target for scum "contributions." I expected to see scum dogpile on me at some point, probably adding more poorly considered fuel to the fire. As you know, basically everyone in the game has been piling on me with various arguments, some more reasoned than others. That makes it extremely likely that the mafia shows up in there somewhere. However, in day 2, only two people really added new content to the fire: Vivax (which was why I scumread him day 2) and Rels.
In particular, Rels's accusation was as follows:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 07:38 Rels wrote:On the other hand I see NOONE except someone looking actively for blues reading this post: Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 00:25 Koshi wrote:On September 08 2018 00:17 Sergiovan wrote:
And Time is finally on my side, I get to be here for a bit.
I don’t know anyone particularly well so if any of you can add meta reads to what I’m seeing I would appreciate the help. My meta knowledge is, at best, deeply outdated.
I believe that Koshi is the best lynch of the people who have posted this far. His most recent post shows that he is aware of how he appears and is nervous about it and is trying to fit in to the town atmosphere.
Kaley seems most town to me, I like his image post. It shows a carefree mindset which I believe is hard to fake as scum.
Koshi, Vivax and Kaley - the three of you have all posted in the past hour so I assume you are still here. Koshi please respond to my Kaley read. Kaley please respond to my Koshi read. Vivax please respond to both.
I am sorry that I appear to you like that. Please dont lynch me. You look very town. And thinking: "mm yeah this person is 90% blue" And THEN making this post: Show nested quote +On September 08 2018 15:42 Qatol wrote:
I agree that Koshi isn't really contributing very seriously and he should be looked at as a more serious lynch candidate in the near future. His posts generally are not helping the town, with the possible exception of his halfhearted stabs at me, which at least potentially foster discussion. However, I don't agree with calling him scummy for not posting his town reads, at least if those townies are not under threat of lynch and he himself is not about to die. Oh yeah. Really 90% sure Koshi was town at that point.
In other words, his "contribution" was that it isn't pro-town to look for blues. However, as anyone who looks for mafia by evaluating how nervous they appear would know, a huge part of that is distinguishing blues from reds (because both will act nervous when pressured). Plus, sometimes people just make posts that make you think they have a role. If anything, in the context of a discussion about why Koshi was killed, me revealing that I had a blue read on him is more likely to make me town than mafia. However, when I pointed that out to him, instead of thinking about the argument like you would expect from a townie trying to contribute, he instead mindlessly doubles down and tries to make it a blue hunting competition:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 07:55 Rels wrote:
you got lucky with your unlikely assumption being right
or maybe you really caught him with his posts asking for advice during the night
but that post is not a blueslip, and no VT would think it is
However, at this point, he has justified his crappy vote.
So at this point, I'm already not loving what he has done, but maybe his other contributions to the thread have something that redeems him?
Day 1, he's trying not to get into arguments with anyone. Instead, his posts are either defenses of Vivax or him talking about various people he thinks are probably townie (sergio, rayn, koshi, and kelsier). As Meapak pointed out in post #349, he isn't taking sides with people who are arguing against each other, which is unusual. Instead, he thinks they're all town.
Night 2, he only discusses modkills and a quick support for rayn.
These look like the type of posts I'm expecting out of mafia. He's doing his very best to avoid any sort of controversy while at the same time not really contributing. Literally the only potentially redeeming things I can find in his filter at all are his defense of Vivax (which doesn't bring him under fire) and him being confused about Koshi flipping blue (but this is a mistake scum could easily make).
I also like Meapak's point from post #349 that Rels lazily jumped on the bandwagon for Kaley, mostly in the spirit of "punishing poor town play." (Only excerpt copied below)
+ Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 02:15 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2018 03:02 Qatol wrote:Getting back to the game, I will say that I am nervous that there hasn't been more pushback regarding Kaley, both by the player themselves and by others. Usually lynching mafia day 1 is like pulling teeth. That hasn't been the experience so far. On September 08 2018 23:17 Rels wrote:
Sergio is almost lock town for me
rayn Koshi and KSC look town too
I want to lynch Kaley Rels, why is Sergio almost a lock? Why do you want to lynch Kaley? Considering there was 30 minutes between your "yo" post and your vote, I'm confused as to why you didn't say more. During those 30 minutes I read the game. Sergio's angryness makes no sense as scum in my opinion. Kaley has chosen to play in a way that makes her very hard to read. Fair enough. But when pushed for it, she doubled down and did it more strongly. I can see this strategy coming more from scum (kinda like "they wouldn't believe scum would continue roleplaying in my position"). Could also come from stubborn town but for now she's the more likely to flip scum. His reasoning for lynching Kaley is that he/she was hard to read? That's just lazy town play, not scumhunting. Killing someone for roleplaying is a super low percentage policy lynch move which is both apathetic and ineffective as it gives no real information. But it sure is an easy position for a scum to hop on and defend bc they wanted to "punish poor town play." But folks our goal is to catch mafia, not punish bad townplay.
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Sorry, I write slowly. I'm trying not to mess up the TL spoiler and quote functions again too, which almost happened 3 or 4 different times in there.  And you are slightly incorrect, his "bluehunting" posts were all made after that post.
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On September 15 2018 04:56 Sergiovan wrote:
So Qatol which of me/RoL/Prplhz is town?
RoL. He's distracting the thread and trying to divide the vote for no good reason. He's also trying to downplay the urgency to focus votes, despite this being an inactive game involving people in wildly different time zones. Plus, as I mentioned earlier, the "voting" argument on rayn is just wrong and RoL should know better.
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On September 15 2018 05:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I can understand your first argument, especially since i do not think you are mafia. But i do not think it makes Rels mafia (your first paragraph).
Second thing, yeah i think his argument is shit, it really is. But i can't really let it go, if i am being really honest you are the one that is arguing that "anyone should have been seeing Koshi was blue" when that is not really how it works. From my perspective, i do not think Koshi hinted blue, not any good player nowadays hints blue so that people can catch it (unless you are blazinghand lol). I do not know why Rels makes that argument, but i also do not know which is worse, him making the argument or "you enforcing it" when you never should in case you are town.
What has Rels done, other than that, that is mafia-esque, other than is related to me (which i find really annoying)? If you wanna call me mafia, call me mafia, but i find a lot of your (and Meapak's) points out to be heavily related towards me. And i don't like people calling other people mafia because "someone else is mafia". Obviously i am not going to lynch myself or want to be lynched myself over Rels because it is LYLO, but please, can you just not make your case founded on something that the person themselves did?
I fully know i dont have any say in if people want to lynch Rels or not since the people who "are listening to me" arent actually listening to me, and well, you have the rest. So i hope you are right then, i just think Kelsier is most likely mafia and i want to lynch him.
I think I understand what you're saying. Again, it doesn't really matter whether Koshi actually hinted he was blue. I thought it was obvious (and I come from an era where people most definitely did leak that they were blue - read this game if you don't believe me). And even that isn't really the point. The point is that identifying posts as potentially indicating a blue after the fact is not scummy behavior. When pressed on that point, Rels decided to double down because it was his only contribution to the argument.
As far as the remainder of the argument goes, it isn't so much that Rels supported you. It's that he supported a bunch of people while otherwise trying not to get in the way of anyone who would call him out. Yes, you were mentioned both times, but so what? So were Sergio, Koshi, Kelsier, and Vivax. The point is that he was trying to stay out of your way (and really out of the way of most of the active town).
As far as your arguments towards Kelsier go, trust me, they are having an effect. Your arguments are the main reason I haven't completely written him off as a misguided, tunneling townie. I just have a stronger read on Rels (and RoL). I also happen to think that Rels is the most likely to get a townie majority.
If Meapak shows up and Meapak and Sergio are willing to switch, I am perfectly happy to lynch RoL instead. Ideally, we could get prplhz to switch too. My preference would be to have 5 votes so, if they join the majority, mafia cannot switch off the majority at the last second.
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On September 15 2018 05:19 Sergiovan wrote:
But I have twenty minutes until I’m AFK so if we are gonna do it we have to do it now. Qatol?
Let's do it. Rayn isn't supporting the Rels lynch and we need him. Here's hoping Meapak and prplhz show up in time to help.
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On September 15 2018 05:07 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2018 04:56 Sergiovan wrote:
So Qatol which of me/RoL/Prplhz is town? RoL. He's distracting the thread and trying to divide the vote for no good reason. He's also trying to downplay the urgency to focus votes, despite this being an inactive game involving people in wildly different time zones. Plus, as I mentioned earlier, the "voting" argument on rayn is just wrong and RoL should know better.
I just realized I exactly misread your post. I think RoL is mafia (not town). I think the second mafia is Rels. I think the last mafia is one of prplhz, KelsierSC, and you. I'm not going to worry about which one right now, as night kills and future posts can provide more clarity.
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On September 15 2018 05:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:Wait what does this mean? Show nested quote + I also happen to think that Rels is the most likely to get a townie majority.
That I think Meapak is town and is likely to be perceived as town by the townies in the group of prplhz, kelsierSC, and Sergiovan. Sergio backing a RoL lynch helps things, but I really would like 5 votes.
Because we're switching to RoL, I'm hoping Meapak and prplhz at a minimum will back this play.
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On September 15 2018 05:41 raynpelikoneet wrote:
can you still tell me which of Meapak's points on Rels were good Qatol?
Two of them:
1. Meapak doesn't like that Rels decided that everyone in you, sergio, koshi, and kelsier were town, rather than backing one or two of you. I agree. It isn't how townies react to arguments. It's a way to avoid confrontation and keep yourself off the radar.
2. Meapak points out that Rels basically wants to lynch Kaley for playing in a way that is hard to read. I agree that this is about as flimsy of a reason as you can get to join a bandwagon. Rels doesn't even point out any arguments regarding Kaley that he thinks are persuasive.
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On September 15 2018 05:44 prplhz wrote:
When is deadline?
Deadline is in just over 2 hours.
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On September 15 2018 05:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am going to be 100% honest here Qatol. I do not know if you are either just very hard to understand because for me your answers do not answer the question i am asking, or if you are just mafia...
I'm not sure what I'm not answering, but if you point it out, I'm happy to do so. We definitely have completely different posting styles, which can be a source of confusion.
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EPT
