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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:36 GMT
#2421
I am also quite interested in why rsoultin apparently agrees with it??????
table for two on a tv tray
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
March 24 2018 13:42 GMT
#2422
On March 24 2018 22:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The thing with Palmar's approach to disformation during D1 and after is this. I actually thought about that too there since i think disformation is mafia and originally i figured it would be beneficial for Palmar to do what he did if he is mafia with disformation.

The problem i have with that line of thought is the following:
We can probably agree Palmar isn't completely unaware of what happens in the game, especially close to the lynch D1. If Palmar is mafia there is actually zero benefit for him to downplay his accusation on disformation after the claim because:
1) thread sentiment suggest not lynching disformation anymore
2) he can use that as a cover up into eternity for not doing anything other than saying "lynch disformation"
Therefore i came to conclusion that this:
Show nested quote +
My gut says that veteran is both a stupid and weird claim for mafia to make. It's also one of those types of claims that bad townies feel really comfortable revealing, because they don't understand the role of a veteran in the game. Thus if I was forced to bet, I'd bet town on disfo.

...line of thought has to be legit thought process and the only explanation for "breaking character" is this. There is literally zero reason for Palmar to break character here regardless of disformation's alignment since not doing so ONLY helps his mafia play because it's correct (1) metawise, (2) noone can blame him fro that, (3) it gives him an excuse to not do anything. If disformation is mafia, the seed of bussing would have been implemented already before the claim so it makes no sense for him to not continue that. If disformation is town, there is ABSOLUTELY no reason Palmar should "lay off" him like he did.

Here is an example of Palmar breaking character as mafia. One big game there was we had a similar type of situation where Vivax claimed a role D1 when being lynched. Palmar is known for his "lynch claimers" policy, although he is a bit of a hypocrite in that tbh, lots of words why it's the best play, always do the opposing thing.... I, in that game, kept my vote on Vivax and tried to get him lynched because i didn't think the claim means anything. Palmar comes in -> says he reads me town -> says he will sheep me -> votes for the counter-wagon Rels. That is how Palmar breaks character as mafia, doing something completely illogical that fucks him up immediately + Show Spoiler +
(except that it doesn't since none of the plebs were able to lynch him in that game while me and Artanis shouted all N1 "Palmar is mafia" and got both killed N1)
.

TLDR; There is zero reason for Palmar to break character he is very well aware of regardless of disformation's alignment.

Another thing is the coag townie seal that noobking talked about. I can't understand how he can come to a conclusion that "if Palmar is mafia he is lying" because i think that's a completely unnatural thought. There are more players in the game who know coag than Palmar, and the reason why noone is "contesting" the townie seal "case" is because well.. that's how it is. I can't figure out where the line of "if Palmar is mafia then he can be lying" comes from because that's not an option for him as mafia regardless of coag's alignment.

I am not sure why noobking throws all these things into trash and just follows one line of thought (which is definitely less likely than this). This is not even any sort of meta thing, this is just "why would town/mafia do this and how likely" which is what he loves all that much (like i do).


Hm, I was kind of liking noob's palmar digging because that's the sort of thing that I would do, and the sort of thing that would ping me. A discrepancy in game perception: see issues with slam and conversion this game, moosy last game, etc.

I agree with you on palmar that I don't see the benefit for him doing that as scum here. It was just making me feel a bit better about noob, though I wanted to keep the pressure on to see what he came up with.

You're right about his approach to the coag point, though. It's not a matter of lying. It's a matter of, do you think Palmar convinced coag in their scum qt that this was the game that he was going to break his meta for ultimate glory? Or, conversely, that Palmar focused on that rather than other things just to look like he was doing something.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
March 24 2018 13:45 GMT
#2423
On March 24 2018 22:42 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2018 22:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The thing with Palmar's approach to disformation during D1 and after is this. I actually thought about that too there since i think disformation is mafia and originally i figured it would be beneficial for Palmar to do what he did if he is mafia with disformation.

The problem i have with that line of thought is the following:
We can probably agree Palmar isn't completely unaware of what happens in the game, especially close to the lynch D1. If Palmar is mafia there is actually zero benefit for him to downplay his accusation on disformation after the claim because:
1) thread sentiment suggest not lynching disformation anymore
2) he can use that as a cover up into eternity for not doing anything other than saying "lynch disformation"
Therefore i came to conclusion that this:
My gut says that veteran is both a stupid and weird claim for mafia to make. It's also one of those types of claims that bad townies feel really comfortable revealing, because they don't understand the role of a veteran in the game. Thus if I was forced to bet, I'd bet town on disfo.

...line of thought has to be legit thought process and the only explanation for "breaking character" is this. There is literally zero reason for Palmar to break character here regardless of disformation's alignment since not doing so ONLY helps his mafia play because it's correct (1) metawise, (2) noone can blame him fro that, (3) it gives him an excuse to not do anything. If disformation is mafia, the seed of bussing would have been implemented already before the claim so it makes no sense for him to not continue that. If disformation is town, there is ABSOLUTELY no reason Palmar should "lay off" him like he did.

Here is an example of Palmar breaking character as mafia. One big game there was we had a similar type of situation where Vivax claimed a role D1 when being lynched. Palmar is known for his "lynch claimers" policy, although he is a bit of a hypocrite in that tbh, lots of words why it's the best play, always do the opposing thing.... I, in that game, kept my vote on Vivax and tried to get him lynched because i didn't think the claim means anything. Palmar comes in -> says he reads me town -> says he will sheep me -> votes for the counter-wagon Rels. That is how Palmar breaks character as mafia, doing something completely illogical that fucks him up immediately + Show Spoiler +
(except that it doesn't since none of the plebs were able to lynch him in that game while me and Artanis shouted all N1 "Palmar is mafia" and got both killed N1)
.

TLDR; There is zero reason for Palmar to break character he is very well aware of regardless of disformation's alignment.

Another thing is the coag townie seal that noobking talked about. I can't understand how he can come to a conclusion that "if Palmar is mafia he is lying" because i think that's a completely unnatural thought. There are more players in the game who know coag than Palmar, and the reason why noone is "contesting" the townie seal "case" is because well.. that's how it is. I can't figure out where the line of "if Palmar is mafia then he can be lying" comes from because that's not an option for him as mafia regardless of coag's alignment.

I am not sure why noobking throws all these things into trash and just follows one line of thought (which is definitely less likely than this). This is not even any sort of meta thing, this is just "why would town/mafia do this and how likely" which is what he loves all that much (like i do).


Hm, I was kind of liking noob's palmar digging because that's the sort of thing that I would do, and the sort of thing that would ping me. A discrepancy in game perception: see issues with slam and conversion this game, moosy last game, etc.

I agree with you on palmar that I don't see the benefit for him doing that as scum here. It was just making me feel a bit better about noob, though I wanted to keep the pressure on to see what he came up with.


You're right about his approach to the coag point, though. It's not a matter of lying. It's a matter of, do you think Palmar convinced coag in their scum qt that this was the game that he was going to break his meta for ultimate glory? Or, conversely, that Palmar focused on that rather than other things just to look like he was doing something.


To be even more clear for you, rayn, I didn't think it had bearing on Palmar's alignment. I was prodding into noob's.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:45 GMT
#2424
Coag has been tried to convince that in scum qt earlier and it didn't work.

I agree that the above thing is something a townie would say, but i kind of disagree it makes noobking townier because of how he looks at things and here he seems to be working completely differently than for example with his stuff on Tictock.

That being said i also think Tictock looks way better for his latest posts.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:45 GMT
#2425
Yeah i understood that.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:49 GMT
#2426
Another problem i have is that no matter how much i would like to lynch noobking here i don't think that's the best option here. Because the thread sentiment suggests that either:
1) noobking is mafia with lurkers
2) mafia doesn't care about what's happening -- aka mafia are lurkers

That is, if i am in fact correct and tictock isn't mafia after all.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:52 GMT
#2427
But if tictock is mafia then same thing applies lol.
So i don't think noobking is the best lynch here and we should look elsewhere.
table for two on a tv tray
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
March 24 2018 13:52 GMT
#2428
On March 24 2018 22:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Coag has been tried to convince that in scum qt earlier and it didn't work.

I agree that the above thing is something a townie would say, but i kind of disagree it makes noobking townier because of how he looks at things and here he seems to be working completely differently than for example with his stuff on Tictock.

That being said i also think Tictock looks way better for his latest posts.


If I can keep focused long enough, I need to double check HF's reasons for wanting TT dead. I do remember something about TT defending mocsta before reading or something, but it's hazy. I definitely don't think his post at the start of today was weird at all.

Yeah, that was the other thought. The timing on noob pushing that.

I'm just going to do that now while it's still fresh and then maybe try to sleep this off.

And, really, I feel like TT and disinfo have been some of the people most actively digging this day phase. TT you could argue is on the chopping block, so it's not as alignment indicative for him. But yeah.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
March 24 2018 13:53 GMT
#2429
On March 24 2018 22:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Another problem i have is that no matter how much i would like to lynch noobking here i don't think that's the best option here. Because the thread sentiment suggests that either:
1) noobking is mafia with lurkers
2) mafia doesn't care about what's happening -- aka mafia are lurkers

That is, if i am in fact correct and tictock isn't mafia after all.


You're not supposed to say this before he answers my questions ;o;
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:54 GMT
#2430
On March 24 2018 22:53 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2018 22:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Another problem i have is that no matter how much i would like to lynch noobking here i don't think that's the best option here. Because the thread sentiment suggests that either:
1) noobking is mafia with lurkers
2) mafia doesn't care about what's happening -- aka mafia are lurkers

That is, if i am in fact correct and tictock isn't mafia after all.


You're not supposed to say this before he answers my questions ;o;

He will still fuck up if he is mafia.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:55 GMT
#2431
If he is town Tictock's alignment should be irrelevant to him by wagon-analysis.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:55 GMT
#2432
Also noobking wants to lynch lurkers so THAT ACTUALLY looks a bit better to him, except for the Palmar "case".
table for two on a tv tray
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
March 24 2018 13:56 GMT
#2433
On March 24 2018 22:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2018 22:53 rsoultin wrote:
On March 24 2018 22:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Another problem i have is that no matter how much i would like to lynch noobking here i don't think that's the best option here. Because the thread sentiment suggests that either:
1) noobking is mafia with lurkers
2) mafia doesn't care about what's happening -- aka mafia are lurkers

That is, if i am in fact correct and tictock isn't mafia after all.


You're not supposed to say this before he answers my questions ;o;

He will still fuck up if he is mafia.


True. And if he's town, I like how he thinks with that poke into Palmar. Worth keeping around.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:57 GMT
#2434
On March 24 2018 22:56 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2018 22:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On March 24 2018 22:53 rsoultin wrote:
On March 24 2018 22:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Another problem i have is that no matter how much i would like to lynch noobking here i don't think that's the best option here. Because the thread sentiment suggests that either:
1) noobking is mafia with lurkers
2) mafia doesn't care about what's happening -- aka mafia are lurkers

That is, if i am in fact correct and tictock isn't mafia after all.


You're not supposed to say this before he answers my questions ;o;

He will still fuck up if he is mafia.


True. And if he's town, I like how he thinks with that poke into Palmar. Worth keeping around.

I think here is where we disagree.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:57 GMT
#2435
Not the worth keeping around though, just the "how he thinks" in this specific situation.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 13:59 GMT
#2436
On March 24 2018 22:52 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2018 22:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Coag has been tried to convince that in scum qt earlier and it didn't work.

I agree that the above thing is something a townie would say, but i kind of disagree it makes noobking townier because of how he looks at things and here he seems to be working completely differently than for example with his stuff on Tictock.

That being said i also think Tictock looks way better for his latest posts.


If I can keep focused long enough, I need to double check HF's reasons for wanting TT dead. I do remember something about TT defending mocsta before reading or something, but it's hazy. I definitely don't think his post at the start of today was weird at all.

Yeah, that was the other thought. The timing on noob pushing that.

I'm just going to do that now while it's still fresh and then maybe try to sleep this off.

And, really, I feel like TT and disinfo have been some of the people most actively digging this day phase. TT you could argue is on the chopping block, so it's not as alignment indicative for him. But yeah.

What does that mean?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 14:03 GMT
#2437
Kelsier
ykl
FF

Basically have to contain at least one mafia however i look at this. Unless of course the two people i don't talk about are scum.
table for two on a tv tray
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
March 24 2018 14:03 GMT
#2438
On March 24 2018 22:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2018 22:56 rsoultin wrote:
On March 24 2018 22:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On March 24 2018 22:53 rsoultin wrote:
On March 24 2018 22:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Another problem i have is that no matter how much i would like to lynch noobking here i don't think that's the best option here. Because the thread sentiment suggests that either:
1) noobking is mafia with lurkers
2) mafia doesn't care about what's happening -- aka mafia are lurkers

That is, if i am in fact correct and tictock isn't mafia after all.


You're not supposed to say this before he answers my questions ;o;

He will still fuck up if he is mafia.


True. And if he's town, I like how he thinks with that poke into Palmar. Worth keeping around.

I think here is where we disagree.


Lol, if this game has proven anything, it's that I'm at least a bit narcissistic; oooh he looked at something the way I would have! -snorts-

Between that and Rels and pouting over HF and ExO (and conv though I think it's okay if I say that I want to still believe there's a chance he's scum so that I didn't fuck that up too bad), my ego is getting entirely too much in my way this game.

FF/ykl/ksc I guess is where your head's out regarding afkers? Need to reread ksc. Ykl I think...god in a vacuum his behavior since D1 looks scummy. Factoring in that he's a newbie and this is a 20-player game I think reduces that to a coin flip.

And I have no clue how to read FF. Damdred's the one who seems to have that nailed and I was content to let him do that, since I usually have no trouble with Damdred's alignment. I want to avoid the same trap of 'no way am I the one person you want to lynch' trap that I fell into with Rels. But I still do find it strange that he's like 'rsoul scum' then 'but i could sheep onto the wagon that my one scumread is on'.

Should do a proper filter dive for KSC, though.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
March 24 2018 14:04 GMT
#2439
On March 24 2018 22:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2018 22:52 rsoultin wrote:
On March 24 2018 22:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Coag has been tried to convince that in scum qt earlier and it didn't work.

I agree that the above thing is something a townie would say, but i kind of disagree it makes noobking townier because of how he looks at things and here he seems to be working completely differently than for example with his stuff on Tictock.

That being said i also think Tictock looks way better for his latest posts.


If I can keep focused long enough, I need to double check HF's reasons for wanting TT dead. I do remember something about TT defending mocsta before reading or something, but it's hazy. I definitely don't think his post at the start of today was weird at all.

Yeah, that was the other thought. The timing on noob pushing that.

I'm just going to do that now while it's still fresh and then maybe try to sleep this off.

And, really, I feel like TT and disinfo have been some of the people most actively digging this day phase. TT you could argue is on the chopping block, so it's not as alignment indicative for him. But yeah.

What does that mean?


The headache @.@. It's not quite at nauseous level but it's getting there.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
March 24 2018 14:04 GMT
#2440
On March 24 2018 12:42 darthfoley wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2018 09:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Regarding this i actually have one thing to say.

darthfoley, since i have completely forgotten what i think your alignment is do you remember who was the guy who said one or both of us have to be mafia? Basically he called the argument between us "forced" but couldn't tell if we are both mafia (which is always the case if an argument is forced). But then he added the "if not both at least one" which is completely bs since if a townie and mafia are arguing and you cannot tell which one of those is mafia then it is equally likely the argument is TvS than that it is TvT.


Yes I remember what you're talking about but I can't remember who it was. I'll try to find it
table for two on a tv tray
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