[T] MS Paint-Off Mafia - Page 103

On August 18 2017 12:50 geript wrote:
I'm game Copcake, what's your tinfoil?

On August 16 2017 05:29 Jealous wrote:
I think both HF and CopCake can be either or; HF for being either tryhard scum trying to eliminate rayn, or tryhard town trying to eliminate rayn. At least HF does things, posts reads, and interacts with people. CopCake is getting a power-up for doing practically nothing but defend rayn and cry. It's like rolling dice.

On August 16 2017 05:42 Jealous wrote:

Nope, never said I scumread her. I said that both of them can go either way to some degree, but with either of them in a position to earn a power-up, voting for her would be like taking a shot in the dark and praying. I am wary of her because she made it practically impossible, for me, TO read her. At least HF pushes the game along to some degree until rayn put up the roadblock with his obstinate tantrums.

On August 16 2017 06:41 Jealous wrote:

Can you elaborate please?

On August 16 2017 13:34 Jealous wrote:

Earlier on I didn't like his play. I would have to look at the filter to point out specifically what. Later on I started to like his play more despite not agreeing with the things he was saying/concluding. I'll go into more detail on him tomorrow after FF/H1. I honestly probably won't have time to do any of that because exam is in 12 hours and I still have to study and sleep so after the exam I will have about 2 hours to at least do FF/H1 before the cycle ends and then I can do Conversion after that. Stay tuned! Sorry for the lack of paint and my upcoming brief absence.

On August 17 2017 00:39 Jealous wrote:
Quick catch-up post:

1. @conversion: Cop couldn't be in the lynch pool, please familiarize yourself with the game because this was a major point in the early hours of phase 1 to the point where Artanis had to step in.

2. @HF: Looking at your progression throughout the game through memory, it looks a lot like this: spend the majority of your time antagonizing rayn which becomes the main topic of conversation for many hours and gets heated and likely contributed to him being in the lynch pool, throw in some okayish reads on other people but don't discuss them much (until recently), then claim to have vig shot and to have shot rayn while also claiming that he is townlock which effectively "made him quit" and ushered in a decent period of silence from everyone, then come back and judge people for still voting for rayn. There are different ways to interpret this:

1. That you were in fact in the heat of the moment and kicked in the door guns blazing and have cooled off, and that Artanis' post does in your mind town lock rayn, and that you genuinely do think the vote should be on one of FF/H1.

2. You almost singlehandedly sparked into motion a series of events which led to approximately 36 hours of almost no one doing anything not - rayn related, or at least not close to what it would be if you hadn't launched your endless assault. Then you tell people to not vote rayn.

I can see 1. I can also kinda see 2, but if the ends is confirming one town (in your mind) and simultaneously killing their motivation to play, I don't know how much I like that. My wariness is rising and I'm not going to take my vote off rayn just because you said so. I want to see this chapter closed and see what the outcome is without a doubt so that there are no lingering questions. It would be a marvelous scum performance if it was MvM, perhaps overplayed but I can't let the possibility of that go. Ultimately, while I don't think the judges are infallible, they did nominate rayn so as you said earlier, I feel justified.

Also, heavy misrepresentation on your part when you say I have all 50/50 reads. I said that H1 and geript are hard town for me. I said that Damdred is scum lean. I said that rayn townlean. Please no misrep. Also curious how I moved down your list in towniness with no input on my part, after you said that my vote for you was the "towniest thing ever" but I can understand the wifom involved in that as well (I was curious why no one other than you said anything about it and you viewed it so purely positively... that's a topic for another discussion. For the record I just couldn't risk it going to CopCake).

3.@geript: Thank you!

On August 17 2017 11:47 Jealous wrote:

Wha...?

On August 17 2017 12:27 Jealous wrote:
Nevermind, paint got too complicated once I realized all of the contingencies and the limitations of TL's textbox. Let's look at it from the judge's perspective.



1. T+V. Let's assume this as the baseline, as this is what I imagine the judges would hypothetically be going for.

It would only make sense for T+V to claim in this scenario. The vig shot could almost never be used as a bargaining chip to appeal when up for lynch, because that would indicate that the judges had chosen someone to give it to then changed their minds about whether that person is townie or not and put them in the lynch pile. Wouldn't make sense.

2. S+V This is the worst-case scenario, the one that I overlooked in the previous analysis.

If S+V claims, then that would just be a bad/dumb move. It would be much more effective to save it and use it if suspicion ever DID fall on them from the judges and they thought they were going to lose the lynch vote, or if the game gets to the point where the judges are no longer present.

3. T-V. This would mean that HF is intentionally misleading everyone in the game, EXCEPT the judges who already know that he doesn't have the V.

This would only make sense if he was trying to put all the attention on himself, so that the judges could give the shot to someone else who would be under less scrutiny. This would also likely force scum to use a RB on him, as he currently has vest and with the shot in tow, it is a bad position for scum. However, I think that this is still not a very good play, as it would assume that the judges don't scumread him for the move, and it would assume that when the vig shot is actually given out there is likely to be a legitimacy argument which would be counter-productive. I don't think this possibility makes much sense. If the judges did scumread him for the move it would look like this:

4. S-V This would also mean that HF is intentionally misleading everyone in the game, EXCEPT the judges who already know that he doesn't have the V, and of course excluding his scummates.

This wouldn't make much sense to do because then the judges could just indicate that it is false by not including HF in the "Top 3" vote in the next cycle, effectively showing that "we don't care if this guy gets a vest or not because he is lying." That will show to everyone to stop listening to HF, and then he will be in the lynch pile the next cycle.



In short, I don't find any situation in which it makes sense for scum HF to claim; I also think that the move for town HF to claim without actually having it would be too much of a gamble. QED, HF is town and has the shot.

It was pretty hard for me to explain myself throughout all of this. If you disagree with my conclusions, please share your counterarguments because I could easily have just confused myself while thinking of the possibilities and interactions.

On August 18 2017 01:18 Jealous wrote:
What a shit show. I expected more from you H1. Rayn, not so much, but still.

On August 18 2017 01:19 Jealous wrote:
H1, 1-10, how drunk/fucked up are you right now?

On August 18 2017 01:40 Jealous wrote:
To answer people's concerns about me being 50/50 in my posts, the reason why I do this is because I believe that committing to a read and then looking at all consequent posts through that filter makes for biased play. Especially in the first few days, I'd rather discuss what happened objectively and use that to shape my opinion, not make an opinion and then discuss based on that. I hate it when people put out one liner reads early in the game en masse like Damdred did. I also can't partake in any of the meta because in the long and illustrious history of players like rayn and HF, I am sure they can dig up whatever they want to prove/disprove anything they claim about the other, and also because I have no point of reference in that regard. So, that being said, I don't see how it's unexpected that a player who is unfamiliar with the rest of the population, has 0 meta, and is a relative scrub is making long posts that are trying to explain their thinking process. I'm trying to get better at this as I'm doing it, so I explain my rationale from start to finish. Then I get scumread for it? Whatever.

I appreciate people like geript explaining things clearly and also answering my posts, even if they don't make sense because of meta or because I didn't think things through in a civil manner. But apparently what flies here is 1. shit up the thread 2. make one line read posts like "xx is scum," or "give me a gun," etc. 3. use meta like it's the gold standard. 4. make unsubstantiated lists. The newbie mafia game(s?) I played were much more civil, interesting, and entertaining than this. So without further ado:

geript
HF, fuck it, I'll put my faith in my gut since apparently him lying habitually is NAI
I understand Ever's position, having to catch up with the thread, and their posts so far have made sense to me so townlean.
H1 going to carry over some of the towniness from earlier in the game but he hasn't do anything to impress me recently and this recent shit rubs me the wrong way

CopCake is still a mystery

Rayn has been playing in a way that I can't disenfranchise my feelings from my reads and he shitposts too much, so I'd be fine with him just not being here anymore. Unfortunately that doesn't make me scumread him because he still has made some decent posts and ultimately this post in his spat with H1:



I would probably think the same thing.

Rels I have no clue because I have no meta and he hasn't posted, so natural scumlean

Conversion - I didn't like his posts earlier in the game, then he kinda started posting better, then he apparently started willfully not reading filters in their entirety as soon as he found something to latch onto and publish to the thread so I'll give him a scumlean on that

Damdred
ritoky
TW


Fuck it. See y'all tonight.