On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar.
If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
Like, Palmar literally wasn't playing the game. Jesus christ why am I being force to defend the case on someone that I treid to safe? What's wrong with this world
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar.
If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
I
Never
Thought
Rels
Was
Town
So
Why
Vote
For
Palmar?
More
Than
One
Can
Be
Scum
And
He
Wasn't
Playing
Show me your post stating that you think palmar is more scummy than rels and why.
??? man screw off, I tried to SAVE Palmar. I listed him as scummer than Rels cause he wasn't playing at all, then I changed my mind due to doubts and gut feeling. Then I did my best to save him, and almost did. Don't give me shit for that
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar.
If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
I
Never
Thought
Rels
Was
Town
So
Why
Vote
For
Palmar?
More
Than
One
Can
Be
Scum
And
He
Wasn't
Playing
Show me your post stating that you think palmar is more scummy than rels and why.
??? man screw off, I tried to SAVE Palmar. I listed him as scummer than Rels cause he wasn't playing at all, then I changed my mind due to doubts and gut feeling. Then I did my best to save him, and almost did. Don't give me shit for that
IF YOU WANTED TO SAVE PALMAR YOU COULDVE DONE THAT WAY EARLIER THAN LAST 10 MINUTES.
So, your only criticism is that I was ineffective? Fine. But Hey. I am the shenanigan king. I've BEEN the shenanigan king for YEARS:
On January 13 2014 05:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: This discussion is stupid. Can we discuss who to lynch instead of if the only mayor candidate is trustful or not?
or we could make someone else mayor. it's not like it's too late to swap. The shenanigans king is reasdy
On June 29 2017 03:10 ruXxar wrote: BUT OH WAIT, YOU ACTUALLY WANTED TO SAVE PALMAR AN HOUR BEFOR DEADLINE DUE TO YOUR FUCK UP. AND SOMEHOW YOU EXCUSED YOURSELF THAT YOU WERE DUMB.
DOESNT SEEM LIKE YOU ACTUALLY WANTED TO SAVE HIM.
Dude. Think about how close I came to geting FF onto the Rels wagon. Think about how BTDT was temporarily on Rels and he was the lynch. It almost happened. I tried so hard, and it almost happened.
I'll admit it. I fucked up. I failed to save Palmar. and that's on me. But don't make the fact that some peopel were too cowardly to follow my lead, and that I wasn't able to inspire them enough, into "blazinghand was malicious". I didn't succeed, but taht doesn't mean I didn't try.
And where were you when I needed you, Ruxxar? You were on Rels. Why didn't you try to save Palmar like I did?
On June 29 2017 02:55 raynpelikoneet wrote: [quote] Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar.
If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
I
Never
Thought
Rels
Was
Town
So
Why
Vote
For
Palmar?
More
Than
One
Can
Be
Scum
And
He
Wasn't
Playing
Show me your post stating that you think palmar is more scummy than rels and why.
??? man screw off, I tried to SAVE Palmar. I listed him as scummer than Rels cause he wasn't playing at all, then I changed my mind due to doubts and gut feeling. Then I did my best to save him, and almost did. Don't give me shit for that
IF YOU WANTED TO SAVE PALMAR YOU COULDVE DONE THAT WAY EARLIER THAN LAST 10 MINUTES.
So, your only criticism is that I was ineffective? Fine. But Hey. I am the shenanigan king. I've BEEN the shenanigan king for YEARS:
On January 13 2014 05:48 Blazinghand wrote:
On January 13 2014 05:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: This discussion is stupid. Can we discuss who to lynch instead of if the only mayor candidate is trustful or not?
or we could make someone else mayor. it's not like it's too late to swap. The shenanigans king is reasdy
My criticism is that even when you were going to try to save palmar and fucked up 1 hour before deadline, you didn't actually continue trying to save him, but called your move a "dumb mistake" paraphrasing, instead of actually powering through and trying to save palmar.
Then you just waited until right before eod to pick up your little act.
well yes, I planned to save him the whole time. And I planned to do so via shenannies, somethign that I'm really good at. And then it didn't work.
BUT I TRIED.
You might not like my methods, you might not like how ruthless and effective I tried to be, you might not like that I was willing to throw everything scared out the window to save the man, but I TRIED and you did NOT.
On June 30 2017 00:45 beentheredonethat wrote: Also, disformation's setup speculation leaves out the fact that there have been double KP for scum involved. So it actually makes a lot of sense that scum has quite a lot of investigatives.
On June 30 2017 00:02 beentheredonethat wrote: So first of all, I am blue. I am Watcher. I visit a person at night and I see if that person was visited and if so, by who.
I have Xata, no visit N1 (wanted to confirm the vig if one was in, no result), I have ruxxar N2 (didnt believe his "bait" on xata, no result), N3 disfo (no visit), VA N4 (no visit)
There is 100% strongarm in. It was used on sicklucker after the roleblocker found out his role. Chezitwo was the target of the regular KP.
VA fake claimed. Of course no counter claim because no vig in. Disformation slipped a TMI.
VA/Disfo
and I am probably wrong on Skynx because I've been wrong on everything thus far.
On June 30 2017 03:54 Skynx wrote: Btw have to say I'm not gona consider anyone else before btdt and Rels is dead
Yeah given yesterday's EoD I consider this to be 100% the way things should go down. Also this is in line with my original plan from yesterday so I am a happy camper
On June 30 2017 03:54 Skynx wrote: Btw have to say I'm not gona consider anyone else before btdt and Rels is dead
Yeah given yesterday's EoD I consider this to be 100% the way things should go down. Also this is in line with my original plan from yesterday so I am a happy camper
lol. BH makes no sense here. What about yesterday's EOD ? He created the situation himself, and now he's using it to further push me. It would be the same if it was Palmar that lived - he would be using that exact argument. It's a loop without a start.
I'm not talking bout the flip bro
but you're not actually analyzing the game as you are scum so whatevs
On June 30 2017 04:36 beentheredonethat wrote: Also, disformation either is the scum killing this town or he is the town killing this town so there's pretty much no way he'll dodge the scum MVP regardless of his alignment :D
EPT
