|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Blazinghand, what you're saying right now is that:
- You had doubts on Palmar because his last day phase was good
- You thought Rels is mafia
Yet you sat on Palmar almost all day just to fuck up with everything in the last couple of minutes. How does that make any sense?
1) it took time for those doubts to develop. Bear in mind, 5 hours into Day 1, I've seen Palmar trying for 5 hours. That's very different than 48 hours into Day 1, seeing him try for 48 hours, and like, set up all these plans and shit for when he was dead. And even then I didn't think "Palmar was town" I thought "well, let's here a bit more from him" and basically it was just a gut feeling that wouldn't go away. IT was intuition. I know other people felt it too. Fecalfeast did. Other people did. Nobody acted on it, because people don't trust their guts. But I FELT IT. IN MY GUT. So at the end, I tried to make a play. I'm the shenannigan King. I can do this. This is something that I know how to do, that I've done well.
2) I never didn't say Rels was mafia
3) Screw off
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:38 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:36 Blazinghand wrote:On June 29 2017 02:35 ruXxar wrote:On June 29 2017 02:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Blazinghand, what you're saying right now is that:
- You had doubts on Palmar because his last day phase was good
- You thought Rels is mafia
Yet you sat on Palmar almost all day just to fuck up with everything in the last couple of minutes. How does that make any sense? He actually even did it twice LOL. If you recall he fucked up and did it actually 1 hour before deadline. Then he did it at deadline too. CAN WE JUST FORGET THAT PART If there's one word I wanna put on your EOD BH, it's forced. It felt way too fucking forced to be real.
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
BUT IT ALMOST WORKED. If it worked, I don't care if it's forced or not forced or whatever. Who gives a shit how "forced" it sounds, It could have saved him. I'll own that. I'll own that any day.
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:36 ruXxar wrote:
Which means he basically had the shenannies planned beforehand.
Thats fucking scummy if you ask me.
Yeah I had the shennannies planned. I wanted to do them an hour before. But I realized the timing was off, so I waited until I Was closer. And IW as still doubting myself. But I did the best I could.
Don't tell me, Ruxxar, that you've never had a gut feeling. and you've never acted on it. and youv'e never tried to, in the most effective way possible, make it happen.
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:40 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:38 Blazinghand wrote:
BUT IT ALMOST WORKED. If it worked, I don't care if it's forced or not forced or whatever. Who gives a shit how "forced" it sounds, It could have saved him. I'll own that. I'll own that any day. It they were both town then how does that redeem you in any sense?
??? Rels likely to be scum. And if they're somehow both town then maybe I dun goofed, but my motivation was good.
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
I mean shit I don't care about getting redeemed relative to actually lynching scum so I think basically all your stuff here is way off base Ruxxar. Here's what I did:
I tried to lynch scum.
That's all there was to it. I put my vote on Rels, at the end, and used all of my considerable skill to try to kill him instead of Palm. I used every dirty trick and tactic I knew. Because it was the right thing to do. Because my gut told me.
And you know what, I failed. And if I had succeeded, you'd all be kissing my feet right now, begging to hear the next revelation, of Blazinghand, Scum Hunter and MAster of Shenannies.
But I didn't do it. I fucked up. And that's on me.
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:43 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:41 Blazinghand wrote:On June 29 2017 02:40 ruXxar wrote:On June 29 2017 02:38 Blazinghand wrote:
BUT IT ALMOST WORKED. If it worked, I don't care if it's forced or not forced or whatever. Who gives a shit how "forced" it sounds, It could have saved him. I'll own that. I'll own that any day. It they were both town then how does that redeem you in any sense? ??? Rels likely to be scum. And if they're somehow both town then maybe I dun goofed, but my motivation was good. What happened to the "fake rels dumbtell" 100% scum that you had going. Why did you even consider voting for palmar over rels.
??? Did you not read any of my posts today? wtf
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Whatever this is a waste of my time. i'm out until daybreak. quote me or mention me if you want me to respond to something otnight.
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:44 ruXxar wrote:
Your story is not congruent with your actions.
It looks scummy.
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?? I fucking went on Palmar as my TOP SCUMREAD like, AGES ago with my PoE post. Then he started playing better and I had doubts. HAVE YOU ACTUALLY READ MY POSTS???
FUCK JESUS CHRIST THIS GAME IS FULL OF IDIOTS AND WAFFLERS
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:44 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:42 Blazinghand wrote:
I mean shit I don't care about getting redeemed relative to actually lynching scum so I think basically all your stuff here is way off base Ruxxar. Here's what I did:
I tried to lynch scum.
That's all there was to it. I put my vote on Rels, at the end, and used all of my considerable skill to try to kill him instead of Palm. I used every dirty trick and tactic I knew. Because it was the right thing to do. Because my gut told me.
And you know what, I failed. And if I had succeeded, you'd all be kissing my feet right now, begging to hear the next revelation, of Blazinghand, Scum Hunter and MAster of Shenannies.
But I didn't do it. I fucked up. And that's on me. Bro, you don't need to tell me. I WAS THE FIRST GUY ON RELS SO PISS OFF.
1) I get asked what my motivation is
2) I explain it
3) I get told to piss off
???
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:46 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:45 Blazinghand wrote:On June 29 2017 02:44 ruXxar wrote:
Your story is not congruent with your actions.
It looks scummy. WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?? I fucking went on Palmar as my TOP SCUMREAD like, AGES ago with my PoE post. Then he started playing better and I had doubts. HAVE YOU ACTUALLY READ MY POSTS??? FUCK JESUS CHRIST THIS GAME IS FULL OF IDIOTS AND WAFFLERS THE ONLY THING I REMEMBER ABOUT YOU IS GOING "HURR DURR RELS IS SCUM 100% DUMBTELL". AND NOW SUDDENLY YOU ARE LIKE OH NOO PALMAR IS SCUM LETS VOTE PALMAR.
wait, do you... actually not know about my posting about PoE? Let me find it for you, I thought you'd seen it and were just ignoring it, my bad.
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/523282-tl-mafia-lxxv?page=270#5397
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:
Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES
Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
It's probably like, the only good post I've made all game, and the basis for almost all of my recent play, I kinda assumed anyone who had legitimate informed thoughts about me would have read it, but I guess not???
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:50 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:48 Blazinghand wrote:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/523282-tl-mafia-lxxv?page=270#5397On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:
Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES
Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
oh, huh, so it doesn't. But Palm was deffo like, not playing so
QED
On June 29 2017 02:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:
BH when exactly did you start having doubts about Palmar's alignment? Can you point out to a specific time, post or something?
nope, other than like, i guess a couple hours before the end of day. But then again, I think I only voted him for a couple hours? So???
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:36 ruXxar wrote:
Which means he basically had the shenannies planned beforehand.
Thats fucking scummy if you ask me. That's not scummy in itself tbh.
people seem to underestimate my level of ruthlessness and willing to win as any alignment, whether town or scum. Even though I have a reputation for it
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:53 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:52 Blazinghand wrote:On June 29 2017 02:50 ruXxar wrote:On June 29 2017 02:48 Blazinghand wrote:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/523282-tl-mafia-lxxv?page=270#5397On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:
Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES
Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels. oh, huh, so it doesn't. But Palm was deffo like, not playing soQED On June 29 2017 02:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:
BH when exactly did you start having doubts about Palmar's alignment? Can you point out to a specific time, post or something? nope, other than like, i guess a couple hours before the end of day. But then again, I think I only voted him for a couple hours? So??? Is that all you got? Really?
I mean, yes. That was literally the reason I was suspicious of him. Why, did you ahve some OTHER reason you saw at the start of yesterday? LIke, it's not like the dude had made a lot of posts or something that you could read to figure out he was suspicious. He was literally not playing and one of the 4 people who I thought could be scum (and I still think we basically autowin, lynching into that group btw). What was ANYONE'S reason to scumread Palmar? it was literally that he wasn't playing.
THAT'S IT.
that's the hwole case
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Like, that's a LOT though, given we were far into the game. And basically ANYONE who voted him, their reasoning was "he's not playing". They might dress it up real fancy-like, but it's not like Palmar did something scummy or made some big play, he literally hadn't been playing. Nobody had any other reason to actually vote him. It's a fine reason, btw; it's just a simple one. Don't h8 cause i'm honest
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:50 ruXxar wrote:On June 29 2017 02:48 Blazinghand wrote:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/523282-tl-mafia-lxxv?page=270#5397On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:
Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES
Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels. Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
I'm not sure what he's arguing.
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:59 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:On June 29 2017 02:50 ruXxar wrote:On June 29 2017 02:48 Blazinghand wrote:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/523282-tl-mafia-lxxv?page=270#5397On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:
Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES
Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels. Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it... Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar. If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
I
Never
Thought
Rels
Was
Town
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
