EPTI'll read through and make a conclusion by the end of the night.
[M][N] Generic Mini Mafia II - Page 14
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Grackaroni
United States9856 Posts
I'll read through and make a conclusion by the end of the night. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9856 Posts
On May 25 2017 06:53 Prison Break wrote: Alright so here's my thought process. I made it kind of clear that I'd lynch lightningstrike today yesterday. i Showed no hints that I could be persuaded in lynching anyone else, and my stubbornness this game hasn't gone unnoticed to scum, so here's my interpretation of the night: If Lightning Strike is scum -> he would nightkill me, and try to convince sicklurker that Grack is scum. If Grack was scum -> he'd leave me alive, most likely. So this points towards Grack being more likely scum. But could be WIFOM as well. But if LightningStrike were scum, would he really nightkill sicklurker over me? I don't think that makes sense at all, which is mainly what's pointing me towards Grack right now. I think Sicklucker would probably have killed me. I'm not sure what thought process LS uses to make his kills though. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9856 Posts
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Grackaroni
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I'm fairly convinced that it's Lightningstrike. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9856 Posts
1) He had a strong scum read on HF day 1 that just sort of faded after day 1. At the end of day 1 when the lynch was still completely up in the air (we last second wagoned both DF/Damdred) he suggested Palmar might be scum for considering sheeping him on HF, which seems like a strange suspicion to me for someone strongly convinced that HF is scum. On May 11 2017 19:42 LightningStrike wrote: Just woke and I caught up. I think I want to lynch HF the more times I read his posts and him being very nitpicky he actually playing closer to his scum game that he played in the liquidmania qualifier game that I played with him and got mislynched Day 1 after playing mostly horrible Day 1 too. As scum Hf loves to be nitpicky on people as town he not very nitpicky at all. Sorry HF that you had to roll scum again vs me. His filter from that game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/517873-liquidmania-qualifier-2?user=Holyflare My filter from that game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/517873-liquidmania-qualifier-2?user=LightningStrike ##Vote: Holyflare On May 11 2017 20:26 Palmar wrote: You better take this seriously HF, I would gladly blind-sheep LS if my lynch doesn't work out. On May 11 2017 20:30 Palmar wrote: Just convince LS you're town and you'll be fine. On May 12 2017 04:23 LightningStrike wrote: Is it bad I starting to think Palmar might be scum for sheer fact he not much of person who sheep's other people's cases on Day 1? 2) The other thing is what HF pointed out earlier. At first he said that TW's interactions indicated that I was a potential teammate. After other people were reading it the other way he interpreted TW's filter differently to argue that he spewed both of us town. On May 19 2017 01:50 LightningStrike wrote: I think this was the closest he got to a town case on Grack but it wasn't exactly a great town case which is why I don't remember him doing one: his points aren't really great so the fact he went to try to defend grack could mean grack is a potental partner for TW but there might be other people who could be TW's partner. On May 20 2017 04:16 LightningStrike wrote: I think HF or Palmar are scum based on TW's list honestly so I willing to lynch one or the other and the fact Grack was spewed makes so my 3rd scum is between sicklucker and prison break. sicklucker hasn't have the same euthiaism as normally does as town after lynching a scum and was afk for the most part of the auto lynch of TW like he normally does when one of his scum buddies is getting lynched. PB I did like his content early I just more afraid that he could of just been trying to blend but his way of trying to lynch sicklucker over HF and Palmar might seem townie? | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9856 Posts
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Grackaroni
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Grackaroni
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![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/o3AnJGy.gif) | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9856 Posts
Prison Break is clearly very stubborn. He was really upset after we lynched Fuba ignoring HF/SL on day 2. On May 15 2017 10:32 Prison Break wrote: FUCK why did we lynch fuba, he was a HARD townread + I explained this, and he ALSO went after sicklurker d1 guess who's on the vote.... sicklurker.... reading through the pages now to see how this unfolded. holyflare and sicklurker escaped a lynch yet again.... is this seriously going to be one of those games where I catch scum d1 and then people refuse to lynch them and keep killing townies instead? goddamn this is frustrating... He was very tunneled on SL for the entire game prior to HF flipping, and he was making a lot of reads by association with Sicklucker. These posts I flagged as suspicious even before HF flipped. I think there's too much justification for dropping his read, like he's overplaying the significance of it saying that he's going to hate himself for changing his read if HF flips scum. On May 18 2017 08:34 Prison Break wrote: Eh my theory on holyflare trying to direct a scan towards himself and then frame it so he can ride confirmed town status etc, admittedly makes less sense now due to tumblewood flipping framer and holyflare seemed extremely paranoid with arguing tumblewood could be town like why would scum ever go on and ramble about that? I can see it being town trying to figure out the set-up, unless if he's scum and wants us to fake it... so the real question is do we believe him or not.. it seemed pretty real though, can't place it in my head as scum going to think he may be town now, just don't think his current play makes sense as scum at all On May 18 2017 08:37 Prison Break wrote: if I'm wrong though I'm going to hate myself ... ugh.... I don't like changing reads but I have a bad habbit of tunneling, shouldn't be limiting myself just because I could be wrong, if he's scum and I'm wrong then that sucks, but I am confident enough in my townread to not want to lynch him today Coming into day 3 during the night he had LS/Palmar/HF as town reads with SL/me or SL/Vivax as the scum team. On May 19 2017 01:53 Prison Break wrote: I've nailed it down to this town: LS, Palmar, HF scum: Grack or Vivax scum: sicklurker but vivax pushed sicklurker, so grack is more likely. vivax did have a weird post where he'd question why people would lynch sicklurker though, which can be interpreted as softdefending. I really don't like vivax "if my townread on TW is anything like my townread on PB then he must be mafia", that sounded insincere and it's complete bullshit. what's holding me back is that vivax pushes sicklurker now as for grackeroni, he mentioned my post seemed scummy (where I went from scumreading HF to townreading him based on his posting), then when called out on it he basically retracted it pretty fast. seemed like he was trying to see if others would catch on, and when they didn't he kind of dropped it. Very scummy. If HF is town, and I went from scumreading to townreading him, then I can imagine scum being frustrated by that because they obviously want town to kill other town, so I can see this play having a scum motive. Don't see how it makes sense from town though I think 2 scum is between these 3, LS palmar have been townie all game. no way HF is scum and being that paranoid yesterday, that seemed very real and townlike. so yeah I want to lynch between these 3, and I think both scum are between them However, if you look at the posts between the night and the day 3 lynch he doesn't do anything to try to lynch me or SL. I would expect from his annoyance with Fuba being lynched that he would prod people harder to kill Sicklucker. He says he'll join the HF wagon because he doesn't want scum to decide the lynch, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that he would say that right after seeing SL push me into joining the HF wagon. It seems a lot like the behavior of somebody not wanting to look bad in case HF flips. On May 20 2017 14:12 Prison Break wrote: 4, he doesn't have lightning strike I'll vote HF because I don't want scum to decide the lynch Still not convinced you're town for the record but I'm not going to be able to convince 4 people after I've already brought up all arguments, and we need a lynch. If HF flips scum you'll receive townie points for pushing it through though At least this lynch is better than palmars because palmar got greenchecked day 1, which gives him over 67% of being town (can only frame 1 of the 3 members, aka 33% it was palmar) A lot of his posts come off as townie to me, but his posts are pretty well reasoned and concise, and I think he has the potential for a pretty strong scum game. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9856 Posts
On May 27 2017 03:58 Prison Break wrote: I still think it's grack and he hoped I would auto-lynch lightningstrike today it doesn't help that he's willing to switch to me now, because if he thinks lightningstrike is scum, then it's better to try to convince me to lynch lightningstrike instead, but he gave up pretty quickly on that after I made my intention clear I want to see gracks flip because I think we won this game. him saying I played brilliant if I was scum but bad if I was town could be a method to manipulate me into unvoting, because no one wants to be called bad on their first game, obviously. but I'm not going to fall for that I just can't see lightningstrike leaving me alive here, so it's pretty auto from my PoV I just don't like that I'm the only one filtering. I think it would be really clever if as scum you pushed LS and then killed SL and flipped based off that. Since LS already wanted to kill me before it basically ensures that I get lynched. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9856 Posts
On May 27 2017 04:00 Prison Break wrote: I don't think I played that bad, especially if I'm right on grack, but I learned a lot nonetheless. if I'm wrong on grack then lightningstrike played it excellent, but I don't see that as a likely possibility I think you played better than me whatever alignment you are. It's probably LS though. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9856 Posts
On May 27 2017 04:07 Prison Break wrote: wouldn't it be smarter to leave my options open as scum? the flipflop could also be seen as suspicious. I don't think my play would be good from a scum PoV I read through the filters but nothing in it changed my mind. yes, HF pushed lightningstrike which could be scum vs scum, but that still doesn't explain the sicklurker nightkill over myself, so it is not strong enough for me to think lightningstrike is scum now I thought it could work well as a buddying tactic. It didn't really have much of an influence on my read of you. I can't say much about the night kills. The reasoning is a bit circular. If you get killed off will SL use that as reasoning to kill LS? SL bases a lot of his reads on night kills (if you notice, he jumped to Palmar right after Darthfoley got killed on night 1). | ||
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) and it didn't make any sense to me. Since really, i know my own alignment and even if fuba is mafia there is no reason anyone of you three would most likely respond differently, therefore your conclusion didn't make much sense to me -- and looked more to be like what i said.
