[M][N] Generic Mini Mafia II - Page 120

On July 02 2016 09:57 Tumblewood wrote:
long time no see

apparently I'm supposed to answer questions so I'll answer the one that goes "hey tumble who do you think is scum"
I think there are only three players who would have gone for the legendary 5-day solo run given their position after N1: skynx, jean, and jealous. tt and damdred were in very poor position, and super made a move that is pretty bold for someone who loses as soon as they're lynched (that of course being the fakeclaim) though in theory I should not give him a free pass for that-- I'm in a shortcutty mood.
tbh I'm talking out of my ass when I talk about skynx's meta because I hardly interacted with him in xxi, but under the "generic newbie" meta his push on art was pretty hard to pull off. also he's been bringing up the same point I did in this post (that it's probably someone in favorable enough position to pull it off) which is something scum in favorable position a la skynx would want to avoid bringing up because duh why would you give people a free reason to scumread you? skynx is probably town.
jealous confuses me meta-wise so I'll ignore meta regarding him + Show Spoiler + except for the part where I'm considering him because I surmise that he might believe in himself enough to go for the 4 mislynch try. I was scumreading jealous mostly by poe but at the end of D2 I noticed something that made him pretty townie in my mind: he was under pressure in a 3-way wagon scenario (between him, tt, and damdred, and at end of day chezinu). he faced more stark opposition targeting damdred than anyone else, but he pushed his preferred lynch over the path of least resistance. it just looked like jealous really really cared about his damdred scumread right then.
jean is the one who makes the most sense in my mind. he's been swinging for the fences all game, which is something you kind of need to do when you see moosy/ec as your scum partners. highest priority when you see they're under fire is to get as much town cred as possible and jean did that. the path he took seems unlikely but I think he is the most plausible scum.

On June 29 2016 01:23 Tumblewood wrote:

at the end of my 6-page catching up spree I get a nice little summary. I don't think anyone outside of jealous / tt / damdred (/ art? probably not) is ever scum so I think the logical plan is to lynch them in about that order. in every respect damdred feels pretty alright but not exceptional this game. I generally skim what jealous says because he writes paragraphs about sentences, so tbh no strong opinion on him. tt is looking better after not conceding... I don't think that very many people have the will to try and force 4 mislynches in a row with no partners while being scumread with blue evidence, but as a matter of principle I don't ever want to judge anyone on whether or not they concede. tt feels much better than he did d1 though, so I'd prefer to lynch jealous today. good order is jealous -> tt -> damdred -> art though hopefully we don't get so far down the list.

On June 30 2016 05:32 Tumblewood wrote:
Likeliest scum
Chez
Tt
Skynx
Jean
Super
Damdred
Everyone else
0% scum