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[T][M] Resistance VI - Page 96

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18375 Posts
February 13 2017 21:15 GMT
#1901
On February 14 2017 03:55 Superbia wrote:
I'm just banking on the game being over in 3 hours so I can fully dedicate what little free time I have to diplomacy ^^


Game won't be over. I'll bet you that
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14276 Posts
February 13 2017 21:58 GMT
#1902
On February 14 2017 02:39 RtaniSoul wrote:
Alright, here's where I'm at.

Starting assumptions
Silver/me
Starting out with Silver and myself being in all effect confirmed town. I already had a very strong feeling on Silver being town before, and it's only compounded through dick move analysis after silver went emo on a mild amount of shade thrown on them by sharkie. We've put in too much effort to be a spy and that should be obvious by now. If Silver is spy, and to the rest if we're spy, the game is by all means over.

EC
Next, EC is confirmed mafia. Throughout the game he has taken very floaty stances as mentioned by I think silverika. His Grack townread came off a shaky SL scumread that when challenged, he almost immediately dropped. He's also dropped off the map and though some people really don't like this argument, the fact that the slot's been replaced twice already, including once from HtS whom has played through a game where she was quite sick as town all but condemns them in our eyes.

Summary
This leaves 2 spies in a group of 6, of which at least one is between sharkie/grack/vivax. To make things simpler, I will attempt to rule out certain combinations that don't make much sense and attempt to come to a set of scenario's where we can guarantee a win by mission 5.

Connections
Super
Super/EC seems unlikely at first, especially if the remaining mafia is not Vivax. They both voted against the first and second mission that went through, with the second one failing. It is important to note that spies don't have the ability to communicate with one another, but in a scenario in which Sharkie or Grack is mafia, 2 spies voted against a mission with a spy on it and all 6 resistance players plus the spy voted for it.

On the other hand, during EC's mission, he said:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2017 06:26 emperorchampion wrote:
@art I don't really see a compelling reason to switch super for grack? makes sense to put both on to me

Sorry this is from mobile

For his nomination he didn't want to swap grack in for super despite thread pressure, for which there's little reason for him to do so unless that would change the spy total to either 2 or 0. This leads me to believe that Super and Grack are opposite alignments, and thus Super is never mafia with Grack. I still see it as a possibility however that Super is mafia with EC, which would suggest to me that the only viable combination with Super as mafia is Super/Sharkie/EC.

Tumblewood/LightningStrike
TW/LS is an interesting slot as well. His nomination was TW/Grack/Vivax. If he's a spy, it doesn't really make sense for him to send himself with another spy, though it's possible he didn't believe the mission would go through. He's hardballed on Vivax being town and on Sharkie being mafia leading me to believe he's most likely to be a spy with Grack. Though he went softer on sharkie later and scumread them about equally, I don't believe TW has the balls to hard townread AND send spy teammate Vivax on a mission with him.

What speaks in favour of TW being mafia is that EC voted for his mission. This is also something pointing towards one of Grack/Vivax being mafia rather than Sharkie. The two combinations I can see for TW/LS are TW/Grack/EC and to a lesser extent TW/Sharkie/EC.

Sicklucker
Sicklucker has been the punching bag for most of the game and has not been on any mission other than the unanimously rejected mission of RtaniSoul, sicklucker, Silverika, Vivax which provides little information. A large point in his favour is that EC nominated a Super/TW/Silver team, and with Silver being for all intents confirmed, we have to conclude that either EC sent an all-town team or SL is town.

In the scenario in which EC sent an all-town team, we have to dig a little deeper. Vivax mentioned halfway through the approval process of M1 that he will treat SL as perma scum. Half a day later, he's considering a scenario in which SL is town. His opinion change on SL to potentially add him on a mission as the first person to openly do so doesn't feel like a likely spy/spy scenario due to the favorable position Vivax was in at the time. Considering this combination unlikely.

I don't believe in a Sharkie/SL team because of this post:
Show nested quote +
On February 04 2017 18:00 sharkie wrote:
- sicklucker: approving/rejecting keeping secret only works in real life scenarios imo. There is so much meaning lost when you type something instead of seeing your other players face to face. So I don't think you can avoid keeping it open that at all imo. In this setting the more you post the more information you give other players so that's why people who don't post a lot seem very suspect.

P.S. Vivax I hate you for not choosing yourself over me.

Sharkie is talking to SL as if he thinks SL is town. Given the amount of suspicion ousted towards SL at the time, this combination seems exceedingly unlikely.

It's also hard to see a Grack/SL spy team due to the incredible certainty in which Grack put away SL as mafia, though possible. This post also doesn't feel spy on spy:
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2017 07:36 Grackaroni wrote:
On February 12 2017 07:34 sicklucker wrote:
On February 11 2017 08:27 Grackaroni wrote:
On February 11 2017 07:32 sicklucker wrote:
you posted a low percentage team to pass like me. but dont include yourself. that makes no sense to me. your less scum read then me for sure

You realize that your mission got 0 votes.

And yet my mission is the one that doesn't make sense...

I'm mostly taking into consideration the people that I think are town.

I know that Rtanisoul/Sharkie will both consider the mission. Not sure about Silver/Super.


sick 0 votes

lol.

But mine at least had some discussion and an active day.

Yours was "I'm choosing myself..." into everyone afking.

Unless we're talking Toad/VE TL Mafia LI kind of hate it seems rather unlikely, thus I consider SL to basically be town, with an outside chance of being mafia with Vivax or Grack.

Conclusions
Combinations that I view as plausible:
EC/Sharkie/Super
EC/Grack/LS
EC/Sharkie/LS

Combinations that I view as possible but unlikely:
EC/Vivax/SL
[gap]
EC/Vivax/Super
EC/Grack/SL

This excludes the scenario's in which two of the people in the second mission are mafia, and doesn't go into my personal feelings of the slots itself (other than EC/Silver/me).

Going forward
Myself/Silver/SL/Vivax is the mission with the highest probability of success. Presuming my analysis is correct, they are either both spies, or, far more likely, neither are spies. The only contingency I haven't looked at for this is whether it's likely Vivax is a spybuddy with Grack or Sharkie, though my initial experience throughout the thread suggests it isn't the case.

I can't speak for Tumblewood as he was the one playing before I replaced in but I am town this game and approving the team Superbia put in.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
February 13 2017 21:58 GMT
#1903
Minimal effort.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
February 13 2017 22:00 GMT
#1904
The team consisting of RtaniSoul, sicklucker, Silverika, Vivax has been approved.

Votes for: LightningStrike, RtaniSoul, sicklucker, Silverika, Superbia.
Votes against: emperorchampion, Grackaroni, sharkie, Vivax

The team will now embark on the mission. If there are any spies on the mission team, they may sabotage the mission by PM to all hosts with ##sabotage.


Deadline/Mission results on Tuesday, Feb 14 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) in .
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
February 13 2017 22:01 GMT
#1905
Is it over?
Minimal effort.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14276 Posts
February 13 2017 22:02 GMT
#1906
WTF EC actually voted without posting shit? Okay if he wasn't confirmed scum now than he's scum for sure. Dunno why he wouldn't post shit while voting.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
February 13 2017 22:03 GMT
#1907
On February 14 2017 07:02 LightningStrike wrote:
WTF EC actually voted without posting shit? Okay if he wasn't confirmed scum now than he's scum for sure. Dunno why he wouldn't post shit while voting.


Meh is there scum on the team?
Minimal effort.
RtaniSoul
Profile Joined December 2015
552 Posts
February 13 2017 22:03 GMT
#1908
I would've felt a lot better if Vivax voted for and LS voted against :/
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
February 13 2017 22:04 GMT
#1909
On February 14 2017 07:03 RtaniSoul wrote:
I would've felt a lot better if Vivax voted for and LS voted against :/


Yup. There's no reason to WIFOM at this point as scum.
Minimal effort.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
February 13 2017 22:05 GMT
#1910
Tbh if I sticked to my reject vote I still would've pushed you to bring this team forward since LS seems like he's putting forward some major WIFOM.
Minimal effort.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
February 13 2017 22:05 GMT
#1911
But the fact that no one is conceding z_z
Minimal effort.
RtaniSoul
Profile Joined December 2015
552 Posts
February 13 2017 22:06 GMT
#1912
They couldn't talk about conceding with each other you dolt. How would we even hear about it now?
RtaniSoul
Profile Joined December 2015
552 Posts
February 13 2017 22:06 GMT
#1913
Unless you're trying to concede right now, in which case please go right ahead
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
February 13 2017 22:07 GMT
#1914
On February 14 2017 07:06 RtaniSoul wrote:
Unless you're trying to concede right now, in which case please go right ahead


You really think I would put forward and all town team as scum and then vote pass on it? :p
Minimal effort.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
February 13 2017 22:08 GMT
#1915
On February 14 2017 07:06 RtaniSoul wrote:
They couldn't talk about conceding with each other you dolt. How would we even hear about it now?


This is fair lol.
Minimal effort.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
February 13 2017 22:08 GMT
#1916
Like this is all town please concede. x:
Minimal effort.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14276 Posts
February 13 2017 22:08 GMT
#1917
I not conceding because I town here Superbia.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
February 13 2017 22:08 GMT
#1918
if*
Minimal effort.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
February 13 2017 22:09 GMT
#1919
I was hoping this would get rejected tbh. I hinted at it saying "be careful".

For information, and cause I wanted to see the people scumreading me squirming when they had to change their read on me for my vote.
RtaniSoul
Profile Joined December 2015
552 Posts
February 13 2017 22:10 GMT
#1920
On February 14 2017 07:07 Superbia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2017 07:06 RtaniSoul wrote:
Unless you're trying to concede right now, in which case please go right ahead


You really think I would put forward and all town team as scum and then vote pass on it? :p

It's what I did last resistance game in hopes of getting mad cred for it when it didn't go through
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