EPT[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
| ||
|
Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
| ||
|
Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
I am going to do nothing and see if mafia respect kills me. | ||
|
Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
I made absurdly town-favored assumptions and got 45%. Assume scum ignore blue claims and always blindly shoot into town at random. Night 0 scum kills 1/5 of us. 3/5 = 60% to hit VT, ensuring both doc and cop survive to Day 1. Assume no mislynch on Day 1. Night 1 scum kills 1/4 of us. 1/4 = 25% to hit doc, i.e. 75% for doc to survive to Day 2. Raw odds 75% * 60% = 45% overall to satisfy prereqs "of if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1" That's under the most town-favored set of assumptions. Even lower probability in any actual reality. I don't understand the town favored assumptions but the math is correct. (Except if the extreme town assumptions are that town won't fuck up, because, town will fuck up.) | ||
|
Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
Opportunities missed. | ||
|
Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On December 06 2016 18:33 ExO_ wrote: If Koshi doesn't die tonight kill him tomorrow So much respect in this sentence. I like it. Basically if you are town your thought process is: If mafia doesn't respect kill (The Great and Awesome) Koshi during N0, Koshi is always mafia. And I agree. I am pretty terrifying. | ||
|
Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On December 07 2016 00:21 Hopeless1der wrote: Why are there suggestions for the cop to claim during D1? Why not end of N1 when theres a chance at 2 checks? mylo | ||
|
Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On December 07 2016 00:17 NeverUnlucky wrote: Yo, TW, you up for a chat with me? I've one spare hour  Are you going to respect kill me tonight? | ||
|
Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
Either mafia kills me tonight, or I will destroy them tomorrow. | ||
|
Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
| ||
| ||
