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Who needs 72 hours anyway! [M][T] - Page 13

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 24 2016 23:17 GMT
#2155
Plus I haven't played in forever but this used to be a factor that Rayn considered.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 24 2016 23:25 GMT
#2160
I'm pretty drunk so I don't know if I'm making any sense.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 24 2016 23:31 GMT
#2161
We're pretty much just putting the game on hold until Rels shows up right?
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 00:44 GMT
#2168
On July 25 2016 09:40 DCWasabi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 24 2016 19:04 prplhz wrote:
DCWasabi


So hey, prplz?

You ain't the cop, for reasons that I already outlined.

Grack supposedly thought this was a cop claim???
Did anybody else feel that way?

Don't answer this. I was being stupid to bring this up in the first place. And what rasons how could prplz be the cop if youre town anyways.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 00:50 GMT
#2170
Did you read my Lunatic stuff?
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 01:01 GMT
#2172
On July 25 2016 09:55 DCWasabi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2016 09:50 Grackaroni wrote:
Did you read my Lunatic stuff?


What specifically?

I'm sheeping Koshi for now.

##unvote
##vote sicklucker

It's gotta be somewhere near the end of my filter. You'll recognize it.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 11:31 GMT
#2259
Bombshells have been dropped. Cya SL. I was so fucking close to nailing him too but I was lazy and never checked SL's scum meta.
On July 23 2016 15:04 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 23 2016 14:48 Tumblewood wrote:
On July 23 2016 14:43 Grackaroni wrote:
We're getting way off track. It seems like nobody sees SL lurking in the shadows with the dagger hidden behind his back.

why do you want to lynch sl (oh all people) now (of all times)

Because he's full of shit. First he wanted to lynch me because I was pushing Kushm4sta. Then he jumped on the Kushm4sta wagon because he thought it was strange that Kushm4sta voted him. End of day 1.

Day 2 he says that I'm scummy for leading the Kush wagon while excusing himself from all responsibility because "he would have been lynched anyway", which is a lie since Sicklucker is not an oracle and could not have known who was getting lynched that day until the day was over.

Now day 2 comes so he's right back to pushing me because I "would have killed Palmar." Where does he even come up with that? As he has said earlier this game, I played one game with him before and I was town and got nked day 1. So why does he believe I would have killed Palmar? Where is he gleaning this information from? It's certainly not from past experience. If I was scum I wouldn't have killed Palmar because Palmar was being suspicious and wasn't even suspecting me to begin with.

And then there's the fact that this thread is filled with information, which he hasn't used at all. All of the suspicions he has posted are based entirely off this NK, which is pretty much wifom. Some people think it was Rels/Koshi/SL who killed Palmar. I think it could be you or a newbie who is giving too much respect for the power of Palmar's play.

Either way Sl has contributed nothing of use besides sheeping me and then accusing me out of thin air of wanting to kill Palmar.

On July 24 2016 05:59 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 24 2016 05:57 sicklucker wrote:
On July 24 2016 05:56 Grackaroni wrote:
On July 24 2016 05:54 sicklucker wrote:
Ya im sure were hard aligning grack to get 1 mislynch. that makes so much sense on day 2 grack. you got us

It's out of desperation. You really think that you and DCW would be able to go on and win the game if Tumble gets lynched? Even if you contribute the final vote, not a chance.


if I hammered tumbleweed you bet your ass I would win

Sounds like the perfect strategy then. I'm taking this to mean that you would liberally bus people in your scum games. Someone in here should be able to confirm whether this is true.

Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 11:54 GMT
#2268
I'm not really sold on this DCW having to be town, but right here Koshi.
On July 24 2016 06:22 sicklucker wrote:
its so stupid to kill tumble now tho... WE HAVE VOTE LOGIC FOR HIM. we can figure out his alignment later. VOTE FOR WHO YOU THINK HIS PARTNER IS

On July 24 2016 06:25 sicklucker wrote:
like killing tumble is so stuuupid. killwho you think is his partner guys holy fuck. tumble;s alignment can be proven through the votes after a flip or 2

On July 24 2016 06:30 sicklucker wrote:
I dont know I might have to compromise and lynch dc at this point... this sucks dont think hes mafia

Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 11:55 GMT
#2269
It looks like SL was setting up for a DCW vote the entire time if he could have got it.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 11:55 GMT
#2270
But there was never a big enough mass of votes on him to hammer.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 11:57 GMT
#2271
Fuck I should have seen this. SL was such an obvious scummer.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 12:08 GMT
#2272
This is by far the most important quote from Rels.

On April 28 2016 01:16 sicklucker wrote:
so we have acual evidence in a very very recent game where super LITERRALY ASKED ME TO BUS HIM. but I refused.

Yet for me to be scum here I would have had to run such a crazy epic bus on super AND ONEGU.

like its acualy so improbable and you can not denie my logic here


This is essentially a confirmation that SL has lied this game. He said that if he was mafia he would just bus his teammates and win the game easily. When faced with a similar situation in a different game he did the opposite because he knew he would never win in the way that he described he could win as scum this game.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 12:23 GMT
#2278
On July 25 2016 21:21 Koshi wrote:
You can lynch sl, he can be red, easily, but my list is

prplhz
lunatic
dcw
sl
skynx


top is most mafia and if either dcw or sl flips mafia in the future the other one needs to be autolynch.

Why are you mafia reading DCW now?
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 12:26 GMT
#2280
Wow no talk at all from prplhz about Tumble during the crazy end of day.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 12:29 GMT
#2281
No prplhz's vote still looks townie to me.
On July 23 2016 06:42 prplhz wrote:
this game would be so much easier if it was Tumblewood & DCWasabi & Grackaroni or something like that

Here is where he was at before the train. It looks like he's only voting for Tumble out of that list because that's where the votes are. Later on he came up with solid reasoning to actually favor a DCW lynch over Tumble lynch. I don't think his change was suspicious.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 12:35 GMT
#2283
I think a SL luna team makes a great deal of sense. These two both seemed like the ones committed to saving Tumble.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 12:41 GMT
#2284
On July 25 2016 04:44 Lunaticman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2016 04:35 Grackaroni wrote:
On July 25 2016 04:30 Lunaticman wrote:
I swear to god koshi/grac if you lynch me and I flip green, the town is going to go ham on you. It would suck if you both are green.

Well then explain your actions from my post. You spent the start of day 2 trying to start wagons on TW/Koshi and trying to trick mafia into CCing Kruppe, right? Why didn't you reveal your trap as soon as TW hit 5 votes and was in danger of being lynched? And why did you think SL was suspicious for choosing not to vote TW and say that SL was a good counter wagon?


Well timing has a factor and there wasn't a whole lot of time to write down the idea and have people change their votes. I was very specific when we were getting close to say that there should be no hammer. I was also waiting for kruppe to make an apperance but when he did there was almost no time left.

Thats when I cosigned and wrote the dice has been cast because I felt like the situation had gone out of my control. Even though tumble did convince me there was of course still a chance that he was a mafia. There was only one way to be certain.

Kruppe has specifically said me and SL are town, and we were completly in sync during that entire process.

Of course nothing is certain, but to lynch me is a mistake and you know this in your heart of hearts.


On July 25 2016 05:12 Lunaticman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2016 05:05 Koshi wrote:
On July 25 2016 05:03 prplhz wrote:
can somebody put words on why DCWasabi is town?

seems like it's just a feeling

Nowhere in this game has he ever tried to put himself in a good position. Literally all lists and all reads he had were 100% wrong.

Somewhere a mafia tries to actually look good eventually, they plan ahead.

DCWasabi was able to make the worst possible post each time.



Maybe he is mafia and wanted to win with all mafia alive. But I am entertaining the idea that he is town COMPLETELY on the wrong path.



And there is 2 mafia in Lunatic/Skynx/Sicklucker


Both SL and I are actually town if you read my argument above.

Yeah. I'm pretty sure these two are working in tandem. Luna's play so far today has just been trying to get town to "FOLLOW KRUPPE HE'S BLUE" yet he didn't vote with Kruppe yesterday when Kruppe wanted to lynch Tumblewood.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 12:54 GMT
#2286
I'm fine with that.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 17:45 GMT
#2356
On July 26 2016 01:43 Lunaticman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 26 2016 00:09 DCWasabi wrote:
On July 25 2016 23:10 Skynx wrote:
Summary:

Koshi's lynces: haze/Luna
Sky's lynches: Luna/DCW
Rels' lynches: SL/Luna
SL's lynches: DCW/? (but never Luna)
Grack's lynches: Luna/SL
DCW's lynches: SL/?


I agree with Rels / Grack.


Let's see if I can think like Tumble. He strikes me like a cautious player, building an early rep by posting in the beginning and then making sure to contribute enough not to get noticed.

I think a player like that would spread the risk rather than try to run the town, a classic case of silent mafia. I also think they chose this strategy when they noticed a lot of the players were very vocal (see Skynx/lunaticman/Koshi). I honestly think most of the people talking are TvT when looking at day one.

I think tumble made sure never to put his vote on the same ticket as his teammates during day one and two unless otherwise directed and to try and spread suspicion on as many players as possible while making tumble look analytical. Of course I have no read on his meta at all but this is what it felt like.

By this reasoning I think there are a couple of names that stick out:

The mafia were unlucky that I started a lynch train on Kosi/Tumble that quickly gained traction (other players too). So they had to take some drastic measures:

They put DC on Rels to break up the obvious train and quick lynch together with Tumble. When Tumble started gaining traction, DC tried to save him by moving the train too Rels with Tumble (see 62# vote thread) When they noticed that Tumble and Rels had 3/3 they removed DC:s vote. Too Koshi to spread more distrust.

Right as the train went to 5, EC removed his vote on Tumble to avoid the auto lynch and DC never once moved his vote at this stage from "random" position (SL was also suspicious from my analysis in this part).

At this stage I gave tumble a life line in Grac when he was at 4 votes again. Here SL looks super scummy too but he also believed in Tumbles defense (remember there were 2 big camps going on).

At the final count, I think EC made a critical error in the group chat and went for the town cred by command of tumble.

In my opinion either EC or SL is scum those two should both be killed.

The last mafia can be anyone but my guess is DC because of the no vote (or he was simply afk but I dunno that doesn't make sense. I think they were following the orders of Tumble not to buss/train).


Either DC/SL or EC should be mafia for sure.

That would make the mafia team look like this:
EC/SL/Tumble
EC/DC/Tumble
DC/SL/Tumble



Out of these configurations I believe that EC and SL are the most probable.

Resons for bussing your own team mate:
This way at least one of them (EC) would gain immense town cred if successfully lynched. Because I think Tumble reasoned that he was going to die next round anyway.

Out of those three names SL was defiantly the one with me to push for the grac lynch hardest so
he feels like the best lynch with EC.

Kruppe however did mention he townread SL and if he is mafia he is sure fooling me.

There is only one thing about grac and koshi that is worrying me and they always vote the same. It's just a very wierd thing. If either of them flips the other should definatly die too. If I am completly wrong I apologize to town. Just so you don't tunnel to much I believe Koshi/Grac are to tight and haze/skynx has been really low activity.

Man have a cookie for reading that.

I just want to say that this is my favorite post from you because its the first time that I've been able to clearly follow your reasoning and get a glimpse of what your mindset is for what you think is going on in the game.

The difference between this post and a lot of your other posts is that you are actually specifying the actions that are determining your reads.
i.e.
"I think DC is mafia because he tried to move the lynch on to Rels to save Tumblewood"
"I Think EC is mafia because he unvoted to try to save Tumblewood and then came back at the end in an attempt to look townie."

In the past your suspicions have lacked specifics, such as "I think Koshi and Tumblewood are trying to create confusion and sow suspicion." I can't do anything with a post like that unless you make it clear what posts are making you think this is the case.

I don't what you were doing differently for this post, but if you keep making your suspicions specific I would be greatly pleased.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
July 25 2016 18:00 GMT
#2364
On July 25 2016 23:00 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2016 22:55 Lunaticman wrote:
is there any particular reason why koshi and grac are playing like conjoined twins?

If 2 people play exactly the same over a long period and not in the endgame it is almost always that they are both town. Never are they both mafia. Sometimes it is a mafia riding in the ass of the townie. But that can be deducted.


Anyway. Can you do the % thing? Like this ↓

1) Prplhz 75%
2) DCWasabi 75%
3) Skynx 50%
4) Lunaticman 60%
5) emperorchampion 0%
6) Rels 25%
7) sicklucker 60%
8) Gracaroni 0%
12) Koshi

Maybe you are not mafia.

##unvote
##vote Prplhz

Here's where I'm at right now.
1) Prplhz 10%
2) DCWasabi 30%
3) Skynx 20%
4) Lunaticman 40%
5) emperorchampion 15%
6) Rels 0%
7) sicklucker 85%
8) Gracaroni 0%
12) Koshi 0%

I believe I have followed the correct percent procedure! It's actually kind of weird I ended up having to lower my percentages quite a bit just to get to 200%

Switching back to SL now that Koshi has come around. If SL does not flip mafia then DCW moves up ahead of Lunatic on the percentages.
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