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Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 16:55 GMT
#2141
Btw this vote situation suits me. Tumble will you be here at deadline ?
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 17:17 GMT
#2142
I have a big town indicator for sicklucker being town. I know most of you already townread him to the max but whatever.
I reread Drams' SL filter, probably his most tryhard scum game ever. In D1 happens kinda the same situation than in this game. scott and Damdred were both blue and both claimed before deadline. In Drams SL first instantly believed scott's claim:
On October 01 2015 05:47 sicklucker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 01 2015 05:39 scott31337 wrote:
I can't break Rayn's tunnel - and I really was hoping to get some use out of this before day 2 - I had planned an end of the day list post - but with Strongman I'm pretty fucked anyway.

I'm a one shot Nikka Coffey Malt Whiskey.
I'm hard claiming.


weird that someone would sub out of a power role. looks like we killin cool

On October 01 2015 06:10 sicklucker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 01 2015 06:10 Damdred wrote:
Hmmmm.... what did Scott claim while I was driving


1 shot tracker.... kinda ironic not gonna say why...

On October 01 2015 06:11 sicklucker wrote:
Scott you devil you

On October 01 2015 06:16 sicklucker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 01 2015 06:14 Damdred wrote:
It's kinda hilarious Scott gets tracker and claims 1 shot two gams in a row.


...............................................

+ Show Spoiler +
IDIOT

Then when came time to vote SL appeared hesitant but voted scott - sealing the deal for the 1-shot tracker (these posts are 2 minutes before deadline and he's having doubts but voting scott anyway):
On October 01 2015 06:58 sicklucker wrote:
i dont know who to vote

On October 01 2015 06:58 sicklucker wrote:
like scott claimed 1 shot tracker last game. i know hes faking but it might be town


In this game SL played it very differently. He was convinced Shape was fakeclaiming, when as scum he would know it to be false:
On June 09 2016 05:41 sicklucker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 09 2016 05:37 Shapelog wrote:
Damm, I didn't want to do this, but I have waited to long.

I am a PR.


kind of want to lynch you now

On June 09 2016 05:41 sicklucker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 09 2016 05:39 Shapelog wrote:
Doctor

Hence Butterfly references, Butterflies = life


a doctor would not claim a doctor... he would claim a tracker...

On June 09 2016 05:42 sicklucker wrote:
no town in the history of towning claims doctor so mf can nk them. wtf they just claim pr and dont say which one or lie or something. its pretty bad

On June 09 2016 05:46 sicklucker wrote:
shapelog is fakkke claimingggg

On June 09 2016 05:49 sicklucker wrote:
like im not claiming but I do not believe his claim. i am not of the school of thought that claims should be ignored all the time. his claim is bad

##vote shapelog

On June 09 2016 05:50 sicklucker wrote:
Like you dont have to lynch him im not medic I just dont buy his claim reminds me of superbia. do what you want

On June 09 2016 05:53 sicklucker wrote:
like if your a doctor you dont claim doctor you calim power role. if you claim doctor is very bad because it tells mafia how to handle night actions perfectly

On June 09 2016 05:54 sicklucker wrote:
sign i dont know what im going to do just dont lynch shape because of me. we can probably figure that out later. i just personally want to lynch shape but even that im not decided on

Then when came time to vote he voted the newbie over blue roles.

This makes him very likely town.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 17:22 GMT
#2143
In addition all the probbing from VE today was pretty townie. I think Tumble is scum. The tone of the his posts is pretty townie but he's been so, so sure of his reads all this game without the hint of a doubt. Especially when we were debating to lynch or not that day where we no lynched. He was OK to no lynch ONLY because he was "afraid" LS and VE would tunnel each other and let Palmar live in LYLO. So sure of a Palmar / Rels team at the time. The doubts were missing.
Plus I still believe the NKs kinda makes VE town even if I see how it is WIFOM. I can't get around VE killing his most easy lynch apart from me.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 17:33 GMT
#2144
The posts of Tumble I'm talking about:
On June 16 2016 07:01 Tumblewood wrote:
##vote: no-lynch
Rels is right that this is the best play but I'm still lynching him tomorrow.

On June 16 2016 07:24 Tumblewood wrote:
assuming we no-lynch
If VE is town, scum wins because they can force LyLo with LS and VE and win. If he's scum with Rels, he busses Rels and kills LS and forces LyLo with SL and Palmar and wins. If he's with Palmar, they go for the mislynch on Rels and maybe win.

On June 16 2016 07:31 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 16 2016 07:26 VisceraEyes wrote:
I don't know about Rels. He could be mafia, but Palmar pushing on him is strange. Like if they're partners why? And if they're not I certainly would rather lynch Palmar than Rels.

Did you see SL's post about bussing being the best play in 3v2 or 4v2 LyLo? If Palmar busses Rels and it goes through he gets all the cred, if it doesn't he wins on the spot.

This logic for not voting no-lynch is very twisted
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 17:46 GMT
#2145
Yep Tumble let's fight. I'm decided.

VE, SL: I'm asking for a DUEL with Tumble. Leave your vote on Palmar, so it's 3-2 Palmar-Rels. That's a risk you have to take. I'm taking it too.
If Palmar is not scum, the game is lost. That's part of the risk. He's very very likely scum though: town!Palmar appears decisive but he's actually always doubting and thinking about the game. He wouldn't 100% scumread me for all these days over something I'm known to do, IE tunneling someone because of only one post. But never once did he showed doubts about me.

Now if VE and SL are scum with palmar, the scum in there will switch to me and we lose the game right there. That is the risk I'm taking.
If no switch happens AND Palmar is scum, then VE and SL are confirmed town. And Tumble will be confirmed scum, and from his POV I will be the only one left to be pushed. 1V1 fight
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 17:50 GMT
#2146
On June 09 2016 10:38 Tumblewood wrote:
tumblewood esteemed even more 100% accurate reads list

really town
sl
koshi
shape
damdred
ls

townish
wbg

null
palmar
kelsier
chezinu

could lynch
rels

would lynch
ve

So basically Tumble's reads didn't evolve from the beginning of the game. Apart from that time where Damdred was lynched of course. This is a scum tell
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 17:54 GMT
#2147
On June 17 2016 03:35 Tumblewood wrote:
rels, here is why I think you're scum:
a) you see information, and you make conclusions from it (in the form of X is scummy) that a townie could not reasonably conclude. it comes as either a huge leap to a conclusion or that you say "it benefits scum" and don't consider whether scum would have done something else or whether town would have done that too. examples: kwah case D1, case on me today.
b) you call me (and occasionally LS) scummy but then don't actually call me scum. it's like you want me lynched but you don't want to say so.

and here is why I think palmar is probably scum:
a) wrong on both his scumreads D1 and his vote on D2. apparently being wrong D1 is a scumtell for palmar.
b) who else is, eh?

and here is why ve is probably town:
a) he's been very genuine this game. it seems like he actually believes what he's saying when he gets pissed that someone's scumreading him or he tunnels on someone.
b) he's been so horseshit with some of his reads to the point that scum knows they'll get called out on it and town doesn't care.

shit, I'm confirmation biased to all hell on palmar/ve.

Nothing much has happened since that post. VE was townie in his doubts over Palmar just recently, Palmar didn't do anything apart from repeating to lynch me. I have no idea why Tumble is scumreading VE more than Palmar right now. By voting me he's saying VE is scum over Palmar which doesn't align with his reads.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
June 20 2016 18:00 GMT
#2148
On June 21 2016 02:50 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 09 2016 10:38 Tumblewood wrote:
tumblewood esteemed even more 100% accurate reads list

really town
sl
koshi
shape
damdred
ls

townish
wbg

null
palmar
kelsier
chezinu

could lynch
rels

would lynch
ve

So basically Tumble's reads didn't evolve from the beginning of the game. Apart from that time where Damdred was lynched of course. This is a scum tell


mine didn't really evolve either, but I guess that makes me mafia too doesn't it?
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
June 20 2016 18:01 GMT
#2149
or well, my main scumread on day 1 (damdy) was wrong and my 2nd scumread from then is still alive and I don't have a better case, but that's mostly because the case I have is really good.
Computer says mafia
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 18:02 GMT
#2150
On June 21 2016 03:00 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2016 02:50 Rels wrote:
On June 09 2016 10:38 Tumblewood wrote:
tumblewood esteemed even more 100% accurate reads list

really town
sl
koshi
shape
damdred
ls

townish
wbg

null
palmar
kelsier
chezinu

could lynch
rels

would lynch
ve

So basically Tumble's reads didn't evolve from the beginning of the game. Apart from that time where Damdred was lynched of course. This is a scum tell


mine didn't really evolve either, but I guess that makes me mafia too doesn't it?

Yep. Especially given your playstyle. If you're town you really were tunneled this game
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 20 2016 18:03 GMT
#2151
ok I was gone for less time than expected
rels, if my reads didn't involve since the start of the game and I'm really wure of them, why is that an indicator that I am scum and not that I was mostly right and confident in my reads?
good times for all
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 18:06 GMT
#2152
On June 21 2016 03:02 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2016 03:00 Palmar wrote:
On June 21 2016 02:50 Rels wrote:
On June 09 2016 10:38 Tumblewood wrote:
tumblewood esteemed even more 100% accurate reads list

really town
sl
koshi
shape
damdred
ls

townish
wbg

null
palmar
kelsier
chezinu

could lynch
rels

would lynch
ve

So basically Tumble's reads didn't evolve from the beginning of the game. Apart from that time where Damdred was lynched of course. This is a scum tell


mine didn't really evolve either, but I guess that makes me mafia too doesn't it?

Yep. Especially given your playstyle. If you're town you really were tunneled this game

Like, this is what I expect from town!you. From PYP where I was scum and you got me lynched:
+ Show Spoiler +

On February 01 2016 07:00 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2016 06:52 Tictock wrote:
On February 01 2016 06:31 Palmar wrote:
On February 01 2016 05:51 Tictock wrote:
I'm still pretty much at only wanting to lynch Rels or Cake.

If nothing else hopefully Super shoots one of those 2 if you guys lynch me.

I'm also sticking with my initial target for the Ban, I'll announce it near EoD if I can step off the floor for a sec at work.

Why not shining?


I think he's town. Why do you guys think he's mafia?

Ban player either takes the RB or they have no vote tomorrow, one or the other has to happen.

I don't really think he's mafia. But the options is this.

Superbia and I are not getting lynched. If one of us is mafia the game is over.

there were 2 mafia kp last night. 1 was likely by disfo.

CC couldn't have delivered 1, because she would have been roleblocked if she tracked mafia delivering a kp.
sl claims a roleblock, which can be explained by koshi.
you claim a roleblock, which can be explained by the vanilla virus.

This leaves ONLY 2 people:

shining
rels

One of which must have delivered the other mafia KP. (unless one of the roleblocks is a lie).

Shining has like... 6 pages of filter, rels has 22 or something. There is a very good statistical reason to lynch shining over rels.


On February 01 2016 07:01 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2016 07:01 sicklucker wrote:
I THINK THE BEST PLAY IS TO LYNCH RELS AND ROLEBLOCK SHINING.

but thats me and im sure it wont be popular. Its risky to leave rels alive because he can save himself

you know what, screw it.

let's lynch rels for no good reason.

On February 01 2016 07:59 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2016 07:58 Rels wrote:
On February 01 2016 07:57 Palmar wrote:
On February 01 2016 07:54 Rels wrote:
On February 01 2016 07:52 Palmar wrote:
unless I'm misunderstanding the roles, which is certainly a possibility, I'm terrible with mechanics.

You are.
Listen, I understand your pov. I should be convinced that shining is scum. I don't think he is though, do I think this other possibility is what happened.
Disfo shot koshi, koshi hadd put a bomb on keir n2 so keit explodes
TT and copcake are scum

did koshi breadcrumb or claim that?

I asked you a question before I think. What did koshi do n2 ?

I don't care and you're the one getting lynched.

On February 01 2016 08:22 Palmar wrote:
No we just got all the good roles killed.

I'm so fucking uncertain.

Rels is not wrong, koshi did not say what he did n2 as I can find.

On February 01 2016 08:26 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2016 08:24 Rels wrote:
On February 01 2016 08:22 Palmar wrote:
No we just got all the good roles killed.

I'm so fucking uncertain.

Rels is not wrong, koshi did not say what he did n2 as I can find.

That feels so good to hear that
I feel I have a super hard time explaining what seem super logical to me

No your explanation is fine.

But a much simpler explanation is that koshi randomly roleblocked scum or something (like disfo) who didn't carry kp and that guy didn't claim it and koshi didn't really think about it. or that he blocked alot, of course.

On February 01 2016 08:31 Palmar wrote:
fuck it let's kill shining then?

On February 01 2016 08:38 Palmar wrote:
I don't care.

I'm going to stay on rels as a revenge for him disagreeing with me on kita day 1.



Another example, the "I don't know what I'm doing" post from the last game when we were lynching marv.
Your mindset this game does not ressemble your town mindset.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 18:06 GMT
#2153
First this:
On June 21 2016 01:51 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2016 01:29 Tumblewood wrote:
if ve is scum he's going for the "be as obvious as possible and they'll be too scared to lynch me" plan. and it might be working, I feel really uncomfortable lynching him.

What do you mean ?

What posts are you talking about here ?
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 20 2016 18:08 GMT
#2154
On June 21 2016 02:46 Rels wrote:
Yep Tumble let's fight. I'm decided.

VE, SL: I'm asking for a DUEL with Tumble. Leave your vote on Palmar, so it's 3-2 Palmar-Rels. That's a risk you have to take. I'm taking it too.
If Palmar is not scum, the game is lost. That's part of the risk. He's very very likely scum though: town!Palmar appears decisive but he's actually always doubting and thinking about the game. He wouldn't 100% scumread me for all these days over something I'm known to do, IE tunneling someone because of only one post. But never once did he showed doubts about me.

Now if VE and SL are scum with palmar, the scum in there will switch to me and we lose the game right there. That is the risk I'm taking.
If no switch happens AND Palmar is scum, then VE and SL are confirmed town. And Tumble will be confirmed scum, and from his POV I will be the only one left to be pushed. 1V1 fight

there's something to make of this for sure
hold on while I think about things

...

alright I've got it
in a world where rels is with palmar rels is committing suicide but probably banking on his plan not working.
in a world where rels is with ve rels is hoping to get his one out mislynched today. that would definitely make sense.
in a world where ve is with palmar rels is a scrub.
hm maybe there wasn't anything to make of this
good times for all
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 18:09 GMT
#2155
Now my answer:
On June 21 2016 03:03 Tumblewood wrote:
ok I was gone for less time than expected
rels, if my reads didn't involve since the start of the game and I'm really wure of them, why is that an indicator that I am scum and not that I was mostly right and confident in my reads?

1. cause town are almost never 100% right this early in the game. The last post that called all the mafia in D2 in a game was by rsoul in Himalayas, and it was so impressive she got a 2015 reward from that.
2. cause scum has an harder time changing reads than town because they need to fabricate the reasons for this change.
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 20 2016 18:11 GMT
#2156
On June 21 2016 03:06 Rels wrote:
First this:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2016 01:51 Rels wrote:
On June 21 2016 01:29 Tumblewood wrote:
if ve is scum he's going for the "be as obvious as possible and they'll be too scared to lynch me" plan. and it might be working, I feel really uncomfortable lynching him.

What do you mean ?

What posts are you talking about here ?

generally ve is mentioning that he's town / he shouldn't be lynched / people shouldn't be scumreading him waaay more than a normal townie is and had some pretty horseshit posts at the start of the game. this is a) town!ve being weird and we shouldn't lynch him or b) scum!ve playing the "too scummy to be scum" card
good times for all
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 20 2016 18:13 GMT
#2157
On June 21 2016 03:11 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2016 03:06 Rels wrote:
First this:
On June 21 2016 01:51 Rels wrote:
On June 21 2016 01:29 Tumblewood wrote:
if ve is scum he's going for the "be as obvious as possible and they'll be too scared to lynch me" plan. and it might be working, I feel really uncomfortable lynching him.

What do you mean ?

What posts are you talking about here ?

generally ve is mentioning that he's town / he shouldn't be lynched / people shouldn't be scumreading him waaay more than a normal townie is and had some pretty horseshit posts at the start of the game. this is a) town!ve being weird and we shouldn't lynch him or b) scum!ve playing the "too scummy to be scum" card

But this was posted after a set of posts by VE that I did not felt were "too scummy to be scum" ?
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 20 2016 18:13 GMT
#2158
On June 21 2016 03:09 Rels wrote:
Now my answer:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2016 03:03 Tumblewood wrote:
ok I was gone for less time than expected
rels, if my reads didn't involve since the start of the game and I'm really wure of them, why is that an indicator that I am scum and not that I was mostly right and confident in my reads?

1. cause town are almost never 100% right this early in the game. The last post that called all the mafia in D2 in a game was by rsoul in Himalayas, and it was so impressive she got a 2015 reward from that.
2. cause scum has an harder time changing reads than town because they need to fabricate the reasons for this change.

what I did not "100% right" though, it's 3 for 5. plus if I were scum I know not to be super right because being good is probably a scumtell for me.
good times for all
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
June 20 2016 18:13 GMT
#2159
On June 21 2016 03:02 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2016 03:00 Palmar wrote:
On June 21 2016 02:50 Rels wrote:
On June 09 2016 10:38 Tumblewood wrote:
tumblewood esteemed even more 100% accurate reads list

really town
sl
koshi
shape
damdred
ls

townish
wbg

null
palmar
kelsier
chezinu

could lynch
rels

would lynch
ve

So basically Tumble's reads didn't evolve from the beginning of the game. Apart from that time where Damdred was lynched of course. This is a scum tell


mine didn't really evolve either, but I guess that makes me mafia too doesn't it?

Yep. Especially given your playstyle. If you're town you really were tunneled this game


I am always tunneled as town
Computer says mafia
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 20 2016 18:13 GMT
#2160
On June 21 2016 03:13 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2016 03:11 Tumblewood wrote:
On June 21 2016 03:06 Rels wrote:
First this:
On June 21 2016 01:51 Rels wrote:
On June 21 2016 01:29 Tumblewood wrote:
if ve is scum he's going for the "be as obvious as possible and they'll be too scared to lynch me" plan. and it might be working, I feel really uncomfortable lynching him.

What do you mean ?

What posts are you talking about here ?

generally ve is mentioning that he's town / he shouldn't be lynched / people shouldn't be scumreading him waaay more than a normal townie is and had some pretty horseshit posts at the start of the game. this is a) town!ve being weird and we shouldn't lynch him or b) scum!ve playing the "too scummy to be scum" card

But this was posted after a set of posts by VE that I did not felt were "too scummy to be scum" ?

that was a feeling I was harboring for a while
good times for all
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