EPTOn April 26 2016 02:03 Onegu wrote:
She gave me a caveat
She gave me a caveat
So? You 2 were her 2 mafia reads. The rest of the alive people is either confirmed or a super strong townread to her.
A normal game just for JAT <3 - Page 22
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
So? You 2 were her 2 mafia reads. The rest of the alive people is either confirmed or a super strong townread to her. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
On April 26 2016 02:04 sicklucker wrote: when you townread someone they are less likely to be lynched. half the reads in mafia are like a cool kids club. one person says it and the next person agrees This is not how this game works. If you give a townread to someone who obviously doesn't deserve it you just make yourself suspicious to other people for no reason at all. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
On April 26 2016 02:09 sicklucker wrote: all early town reads are "vibes" or pretty much just leaps of faith on really thin shit. subtle things like calling someone town puts ideas in peoples heads that they are infact town | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
This only works if you yourself have any towncred which super didn't have. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
On April 26 2016 02:31 ObiWanShinobi wrote: If there's a reason to avoid lynching him, I don't really see it. I tried to look back and see if there's something I could read into (not saving the RB) but there really isn't. There's just nothing there that I can make sense of aside from some reads that aren't good. I know. But the more time passes the more I want to kill tumble for not giving a single fuck about being in LYLO. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
On April 26 2016 02:59 Rels wrote: Well either his partner is dying or a mislynch is happening. In the first case he does not have the towncred to change the lynch, in the other he doesn't need to do anything. Thank you for this very helpful and deep analysis. If tumble is mafia he is probably with SL btw. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
On April 26 2016 03:16 Rels wrote: JAT & OWS thoughts on that ? I just refuse to believe this game is so easy that it is just tumble + onegu. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
On April 26 2016 03:20 Rels wrote: Of course the "each chose a kill" was a silly thought, my point is that each kill hard scumread one of Superbia, Onegu & Tumble. Yeah, that is obvious. Gumshoe might have been shot because he is the fucking medic though. And that wasn't hard to figure out especially if SL is mafia. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
On April 26 2016 03:25 Rels wrote: Maybe. He townread SL quite a lot though so if SL is scum that must have been a painful kill to make. Not really. If Onegu is town and gets mislynched this doesn't matter at all. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
This has been discussed to death but it is really bad: On April 16 2016 13:38 Tumblewood wrote: I'm skeptical on your Superbia read, rsoul. On April 16 2016 13:39 Tumblewood wrote: And by that I mean your only evidence is Superbia saying "Hey I'm not going to be here" and then not being here. Attributing that to scum burnout is a huge conclusion-leap. But it especially makes no sense considering what his reason to scumread Super is afterwards: On April 16 2016 14:11 Tumblewood wrote: where I'm at right now: null most people don't want to lynch gumshoe because innocent town rels because actually trying ows because actually trying palmar because in Devil I lynched him day 1 and I never got to play with him could lynch today rsoul because all her answers are kind of meh superbia because AFK; prefer vig shot "Saying super is mafia because of burnout is a huge conclusion leap""Super is mafia because afk" This doesn't work together very well. Also the "prefer vig shot" doesn't make any sense. Shapelog made a meta case on tumble somewhere which he requoted before he got lynched. That was pretty on point. Examples of what mafia tumble is more likely to post than town tumble are those things: On April 17 2016 05:30 Tumblewood wrote: "Oh but Tumblewood you didn't say that last part earlier." "Scum scum scum for changing his reasons on rsoul." On April 19 2016 02:41 Tumblewood wrote: OWS what is the point of these emoticons "oh no he felt angry face he must be town" On April 18 2016 06:00 Tumblewood wrote: rsoultin why did you switch from "total scumlord tumblewood" to "eh i could shenanny gb" ooh didn't see the reversal coming didya Eod1 this was what made me townread tumble: On April 17 2016 05:39 Tumblewood wrote: i don't really see a way to not die here, so i'm going to just let you all vote me as long as i get 80 minutes of you listening to me and not treating me like i'm scum I don't think it is impossible for him to do it as mafia though? That was part 1. Part 2 will follow soon. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
On April 17 2016 05:42 Tumblewood wrote: pls lynch rsoul tomorrow pls vig shoot superbia tonight for the record i was only focusing on rsoul because the rest of you were european and asleep and ows and sl were boring Still going for the vig shoot for whatever reason. On April 17 2016 05:47 Tumblewood wrote: fazers you voted me why did you vote me palmar why are you voting superbia rsoul and ows when did you change from TR to SR + Show Spoiler + actually did ows actually SR me? is he even here? Why is he questioning Palmar about his superbia read then? On April 17 2016 06:20 Tumblewood wrote: "me to a degree" there are only two ways to go with me: either i am the scummiest scum scummer to ever scum scum and your name is rels, or i am town who fucked up and you are a kind compassionate soul who is voting superbia People voting superbia = good. On April 17 2016 06:36 Tumblewood wrote: i could switch to superbia to save myself but tbh that would probably lead to me getting lynched tomorrow anyway if rayn is in the obs qt i hope i'm driving him insane right now erm, what? On April 17 2016 06:41 Tumblewood wrote: everyone on me is dead set because i bsed some reasoning earlier i don't feel that good that superbia will flip mafia if he doesn't it goes D1 town dies D2 town dies So he isn't mafia. But where is the difference to any other potential townie dying over Tumble? On April 17 2016 06:51 Tumblewood wrote: superbia is maybe scum (i have no good reasons on this one) Now he is mafia again? Maybe? It doesn't make any sense. At best he is unsure about supers alignment and in that case he ALWAYS ALWAYS votes him to save himself. He voted a guy he genuinely thought was a bad lynch in storm to save himself. End of part 2. To be continued. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
On April 20 2016 11:32 Tumblewood wrote: Is your whole scum strategy "make myself as annoying to lynch as possible" to survive? Because the annoying is definitely there, seriously getting tired of pursuing this. This is Tumbles scum strategy if he is mafia btw. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
If you read tumbles filter you notice that he interacts/talks with almost everyone. Especially when he is about to be lynched he asks specific people to do stuff. He does this to everyone. Well, almost everyone. The people he does not do that to are Superbia and Sicklucker. For the biggest part of his filter (until LYLO basically) he more or less completely ignores Sicklucker. He interacts with Rels quite a bit gets pushed by him repeatedly. It doesn't seem very likely they are together. He even interacts/talks about Onegu. But not SL. All that he says early in the game about him is this: On April 17 2016 05:59 Tumblewood wrote: rels still picking the low-hanging fruit didn't jat SR sicklucker a while back? i thought that was a pretty good read rsoul you have some important questions to answer protip: if it's lylo and i'm still alive, i'm probably scum because i never make it past d4 as town Which should indicate a mafia read, right? Still he doesn't really push that or reason it out at all. I know there is one post to rsoultin where he asks why she is going for GB and not for Onegu/SL but SL is just a listed name there. Later he completely "forgets" about this read though. On April 19 2016 11:37 Tumblewood wrote: SL: He's cocky in the right way, and his curiosity about the vig seems genuine. SL suddenly town in a listpost where he has to be included. On April 21 2016 02:59 Tumblewood wrote: I feel comfortable about my town circle now, it's probably not changing anymore, bar a scum claim. My feeeels have been working overtime this game. town jat rels gum ows onegu probably also town sl not town shape rsoul SL "probably" town. But not even as town as Onegu. Why? Who the fuck knows! On April 21 2016 14:11 Tumblewood wrote: I honestly don't know who we would lynch after Shape. I have six townreads and one scumread this game and these are pretty solid townreads. Is the case against Rels just that one vote? Is the case on JAT just the low-hanging fruit argument? Is the case on Onegu just Onegu? These are all solid arguments but they also go against all the townie things those players have done and my feeeels are all I have to distinguish them. I suppose the best way to go is Shape -> jat/rels -> rels/jat We need to get shape lynched and then Onegu/jat/rels. Where on earth has is SL? On April 23 2016 11:53 Tumblewood wrote: is this what a ten page filter feels like? are you also looking at my filter with similar dread because you don't want to read 200 posts? anyhoo, current status is me gumshoe ows = 100% town sl = 80% town rels = 60% town onegu = 20% town i guess that leaves 40% of a townie for jat but that's not enough because he looks at least equal to rels if not townier, maybe they could take some towniness from sl and be split 55/55 btw don't read page 105 or most of 104 unless you want in on my ramblings which are spread out among 40 posts Ah, he is 80% town again suddenly. Why? No idea! On April 23 2016 04:03 Tumblewood wrote: Onegu and then Rels the next day. I'm 80% sure no one else is scum. SL is not scum because he's totally in line with his town meta by being cocky all game and he's not triggering my spidey senses in any way. He's at most the third scummiest in the game and would just be a stupid person to lynch at this point. I guess for the age old reason that he is being cocky again. But then why was he only probably town in between? And where is the scumread from earlier gone? Basically tumble avoids talking about SL before LYLO (and what he says there is really really shallow) as much as he can and his read progression on him makes 0 fucking sense. | ||
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justanothertownie
16319 Posts
But I also don't want to let tumble get away with this if he is with SL.  | ||
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justanothertownie
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justanothertownie
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