Keirathi - Has to provide his tracking result each night, unlikely busdriver pick when publicly claiming House Superbia - Has to claim his shot each night, likely town but scum would want cpr doc here even if mafia ObiWanShinobi - Possibility Rels - likely town but scum would want Reynolds here even if mafia Palmar - Probably shooting me tomorrow, so confirms him as arrow geript - has a bit more wiggle room busdriver here n1, but likely crucified if he doesn't use link n2 so likely not busdriver Breshke - Other two roles confirm whether Holmes makes a check Koshi - A bunch of conformable abilities tomorrow Cephiro - Has to claim his shot each night and explain why he is alive if no scum flip kitaman27 - That's me Vivax - Dead Tictock - Used blazinghand on damdred. It's possible to have a busdriver TT + blazinghand copcake or gb, but copcake claimed the public vig so that leaves TT + gb disformation - Can confirm watson via other two by withholding info from one and honesty checking the other Fecalfeast - Can confirm moriarty via other two by withholding info from one and honesty checking the other Damdred - Possibility AlotSomuch - if he is busdriver, we know it after his kitaman27 check points to someone else so 1:1 at worst VayneAuthority - Possibility The Shining - Has to claim shot....takes a couple days to resolve which could buy him time but has been townie enough to earn pass Onegu - Possibility sicklucker - Has publicly confirmed role. I suppose we gotta consider whether he actually took busdriver though, but leaning towards him being town
Out of the three remaining Obi, VA, and Onegu we can confirm VA is hero through lynching him and having him redirect the kp towards our real lynch target. Onegu should be the lynch target tomorrow if he survives the night.
On top of the lynch role speculation stuff, Onegu would be a good lynch target on his own and is my strongest scum read right now. Keir is my second strongest and Breshke/TT the third
Obi is a wild card so I'd suggest looking at him later on if the others don't work out. Having trouble reading him though one way or the other.
Aside from the stuff on me, Palmar is saying enough stuff that I agree with that I'm willing to admit that I was probably wrong. I think I'll have a better idea of FF tomorrow.
If I get shot tonight or by Palmar tomorrow, read through my filter about what I've said about others. Almost always people fail to do this.
Hold people accountable for their use of their claimed actions and force people to claim things because there could be other trackers or watchers that conflict with what they're saying.
I USED MY DT CHECK LAST NIGHT SO THE FRAME IS IN EFFECT. THIS APPLIES TO ALIGNMENT CHECKS ONLY
I'm like 90%+ sure that Kita is scum. And it really just comes down to one main thing - the way town!kita approaches the game vs the way scum!kita approaches the game.
So, what's the difference? Let's take a look at some of the kind of posts that town!kita makes:
On March 29 2015 12:01 Snarfs wrote: I got HF, rsoultn, Koshi, kita(because of HF), wave, chez as town. Very similar to crossfire, not sold on keirathi but that seems like a good start.
On March 30 2015 04:31 Hapahauli wrote: Furthermore, you're not really understanding what I"m trying to say about Trefl in general. Sicklucker post was good on its own. Paired with the 2nd, it is bad.
I actually found the post on sicklucker to not make much sense, as I commented earlier. Perhaps you can take a look at what I said and explain what makes it good.
On March 30 2015 08:20 VisceraEyes wrote: For the record any PMs sent to me in the night will be summarily ignored.
So to be clear, you attack me for my mason target because of my ability to read HF, but when given the opportunity to mason and read all 25 players at night you choose to ignore PMs?
On March 30 2015 07:50 Hapahauli wrote: Sigh. Sickulcker seems like such a cop-out vote. I don't see how an anti-town 3rd party is claiming in his situation.
On March 30 2015 07:57 Hapahauli wrote: I'll let HF do his thing with sicklucker. I think my vote pushed him to #1.
Where's your spine? What was the good point about sicklucker because it certainly wasn't that nonsense about allowing the coin flip people to talk about something else. Did it come down to filter size for a guy who hadn't even been in the thread all day?
On March 30 2015 07:26 Holyflare wrote: a lynch on sl is a lynch on guaranteed not town!
I want a refund.
There's plenty more examples of these types of posts, so feel free to look for yourselves. Now, take a look at kita's posts THIS game.
Town!kita is inquisitive. He engages with the thread, gets people to interact with him asking them questions about their reads, poking holes at problem posts, etc etc. The kita this game is just...passive. He's just talking AT the thread, rather than WITH the thread. And even the few questions that he does have are just..."soft" questions.
He has no bite. He's just along for the ride.
He's scum.
2) geript
So, one of the key things that has made me stick on my geript so long is some of the back history between geript and I, and it's kind of hard to fully explain.
For a long time now, geript has thought I was a really good player. He PMs me occasionally to invite me to play in games with him, or games he's hosting. I tried to join a game once that was full, and he talked someone into /out'ing so that I could play. He (seems to) really enjoy playing with me, and respects my town ability.
So, then I go and write a big post on why I think he's scum, and what does he do? He just flat out ignores it. Ignores me unless I ask him a direct question, despite the fact that he ostensibly has me as a really strong town read. It doesn't make any sense from a town!geript, and makes a TON of sense from a scum!geript, especially if I die tonight.
So, take a look back at my post on geript again. I think there's a pretty good chance he's scum.
Those are the two I feel most confident about. Some other random reads (not everyone though, I'm lazy).
Breshke: Going into day 1, I had him as a really high town read for a couple of reasons. Firstly, at the end of night 0, he already had more posts than he had EVER had as scum. Granted that's slightly mitigated by the fact that night0 here was pretty low-stakes and post count is never the be-all-end-all of mafia reads, but it says something if someone starts playing differently than they normally do as a specific alignment.
Then there are these two posts (emphasis mine):
On January 19 2016 23:21 Breshke wrote: I vote onegu for dreamflower. Great plan koshi ill make sure my team N1's you
On January 20 2016 23:14 Breshke wrote: I also dont udnerstand rels why you would not want me to pick watson even if I was mafia.
Im 7, that is fairly high if i was mafia i would probably the highest or second highest on my team. i could probably get a role that does KP if I wanted to. I know I am not a good player especially scum player so WIFOM ALERT would happily sack myself and take down some people with me.
Instead Im claiming to take watson which if you actually think about it would be perfect for someone you suspect. If i lie to sherlock or moriarty about their sanity it would become apparent very quickly.
So can you explain why even if i am a mafia read me picking watson would be bad?
The first post: I think it's pretty rare for actual scum to make posts like that. The exception is, of course, people who are confident in their scum game, or just have a lot of experience as scum and can play fairly close tot he same way they do as town.
But he admits that he isn't a particularly good scum player (Database backs that up, at least on the surface). But he's willing to say that he's scum and going to NK Koshi? I don't particularly buy it.
Plus, the fact that his first choice of role was Watson, and he was advocating for town to pick all 3 of the sherlock characters etc.
The fact that his activity has fallen off is my biggest concern with him right now. If he comes back and starts playing reasonably again, he's probably town.
ASKLDJALSKD I ran out of time.
The other people I have in the possible scum list right now are: Onegu, Tictock, maybe Damdred still, maybe Cake, maybe Alot.
I have at least some reasons to think everyone else is town. Sorry I don't have more to go on here, I just ran out of time
On January 24 2016 08:47 Superbia wrote: 2 kp missing (one of which is mine). Mafia stacked with me on VA most likely, or I was roleblocked and we got a save.
VA is probably always mafia here.
why do you think mafia stacked with you 0o and why did you shoot me in the first place lol
On January 24 2016 08:47 Superbia wrote: 2 kp missing (one of which is mine). Mafia stacked with me on VA most likely, or I was roleblocked and we got a save.
VA is probably always mafia here.
why do you think mafia stacked with you 0o and why did you shoot me in the first place lol
EPT
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