|
[QUOTE]On January 08 2016 06:38 The Shining wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 08 2016 06:32 NocturneMage wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 08 2016 06:20 The Shining wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 08 2016 06:10 NocturneMage wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 08 2016 06:02 The Shining wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 08 2016 05:39 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 08 2016 05:29 The Shining wrote:
The vote count looks bad btw. Votes just piled on Slam. Obviously I'll look like shit if he flips scum for saying this but is this really a bus? I guess I just feel weird because all my scum reads are voting Slam and 3 of my town reads aren't voting yet.[/QUOTE]
It doesn't matter if slam isn't doing anything.[/QUOTE]
I mean, I guess. It does bring a little credit to the theory of him being a scum PR and that's why scum would bus GB over him but Idk. Did we really have two scum up for lynxh last phase? If he was a scum pr, why would he not be trying in any capacity whatsoever?
Meh I guess it could point in the direction of scum and he just doesn't wanna give anything away.[/QUOTE]
I have a mechanical explanation for this.
Because it depends on the PR. Look at the blues we have then (cop, JK), both investigative roles. Guess what was lynched then? The vanilla scum. What was disposable at the time? Vanilla and vig.
Now? Cop is gone. What is expendable now? GF, Vig.
I would be willing to put money down that Alakaslam is either the GF or the Vig, and not the two remaining roles needed for them.
This is just classic mafia strategy, take out the investigatives before they are found out. [/QUOTE]
If I'm not mistaken, the vig shot on n1 & n2, which was why there were more NKs. Why would they need the vig alive for n3? Only 2 ppl were nkd yesterday.
And although this does make sense, even though the cop is gone, why would scum not want the GF to live? Once the gf flips, the probable green checks go from 75% to confirmed town.[/QUOTE]
(btw not ignoring your Palmar/Dark Tournament questions)
what I am trying to say here is that they wouldn't need the vig alive. that they are protecting the roles they need going forward. and that Slam (gameplay aside) is not someone they need going forward, ergo, he's the gf or vig. [/QUOTE]
So you seem convinced both Slam and ritoky are scum then. Why not take the Slam lynch if he's scum instead of trying to shenanny onto ritoky?
From a gameplay perspective, look at the resistance being met between pushing the two and who is doing what right now. There's zero resistance to the Slam lynch. ritoky is back in here trying to backtrack on what he did day 3. There's a sense of urgency and survival.
[quote]And your theory only makes sense if Slam is GF. If he was vig and already used his two shots, there would have been no reason to vote onto GB over him since they're both essentially mafia vanilla at that point. And GB arguably did more than slam before he fell off.
Palmar was one of the main cases on the GB wagon, too. Are you thinking he bussed him then? [/QUOTE]
Absolutely.
Palmar is mafia for early gameplay, with which not one, not two, but FOUR people called him out on, all for whom were dead after the first two nights, and it was how I felt confirmed, after reading his filter back and forth the first two cycles. I realise people say nightkills are WIFOM, I, anyone, can rubbish an argument on one person on one night. Four players in two nights? One of whom had a load of scumreads on him too (Vivax). Ehhhhh, something's going on and it shouldn't be ignored.
Additionally there were three individuals, two of whom are dead now that accused Palmar of distorting their gameplay/meta/etc and I tried to point that out either night 2 or day 3. ExO had a back and forth with him and I think ExO is town and Palmar's responses were clearly trying to get underneath him instead of breaking the issues down/meeting in the middle etc.
Additionally Artanis (and one other person???) mentioned he can talk his way out of a lynch. And I'm quite confident now that's exactly what he did.
|
|
|
On January 08 2016 06:38 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2016 06:32 NocturneMage wrote:On January 08 2016 06:20 The Shining wrote:On January 08 2016 06:10 NocturneMage wrote:On January 08 2016 06:02 The Shining wrote:On January 08 2016 05:39 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On January 08 2016 05:29 The Shining wrote:
The vote count looks bad btw. Votes just piled on Slam. Obviously I'll look like shit if he flips scum for saying this but is this really a bus? I guess I just feel weird because all my scum reads are voting Slam and 3 of my town reads aren't voting yet. It doesn't matter if slam isn't doing anything. I mean, I guess. It does bring a little credit to the theory of him being a scum PR and that's why scum would bus GB over him but Idk. Did we really have two scum up for lynxh last phase? If he was a scum pr, why would he not be trying in any capacity whatsoever?Meh I guess it could point in the direction of scum and he just doesn't wanna give anything away. I have a mechanical explanation for this. Because it depends on the PR. Look at the blues we have then (cop, JK), both investigative roles. Guess what was lynched then? The vanilla scum. What was disposable at the time? Vanilla and vig. Now? Cop is gone. What is expendable now? GF, Vig. I would be willing to put money down that Alakaslam is either the GF or the Vig, and not the two remaining roles needed for them. This is just classic mafia strategy, take out the investigatives before they are found out. If I'm not mistaken, the vig shot on n1 & n2, which was why there were more NKs. Why would they need the vig alive for n3? Only 2 ppl were nkd yesterday. And although this does make sense, even though the cop is gone, why would scum not want the GF to live? Once the gf flips, the probable green checks go from 75% to confirmed town. (btw not ignoring your Palmar/Dark Tournament questions) what I am trying to say here is that they wouldn't need the vig alive. that they are protecting the roles they need going forward. and that Slam (gameplay aside) is not someone they need going forward, ergo, he's the gf or vig. So you seem convinced both Slam and ritoky are scum then. Why not take the Slam lynch if he's scum instead of trying to shenanny onto ritoky?
From a gameplay perspective, look at the resistance being met between pushing the two and who is doing what right now. There's zero resistance to the Slam lynch. ritoky is back in here trying to backtrack on what he did day 3. There's a sense of urgency and survival.
And your theory only makes sense if Slam is GF. If he was vig and already used his two shots, there would have been no reason to vote onto GB over him since they're both essentially mafia vanilla at that point. And GB arguably did more than slam before he fell off.
Palmar was one of the main cases on the GB wagon, too. Are you thinking he bussed him then?
Absolutely.
Palmar is mafia for early gameplay, with which not one, not two, but FOUR people called him out on, all for whom were dead after the first two nights, and it was how I felt confirmed, after reading his filter back and forth the first two cycles. If I were to use a contrasting point, let's take Dark Tournament where Palmar used a real ragged way - the sexy filter method - to figure out who was mafia and placed the vote on mafia. He moved the game forward using a basic argument on minimal amount of time even though he did not lead the lynch.
I realise people say nightkills are WIFOM, I, anyone, can rubbish an argument on one person on one night. Four players in two nights? One of whom had several scumreads on him too IIRC (Vivax). Ehhhhh, something's going on and it shouldn't be ignored. And I don't know why people are ignoring it.
Additionally there were three individuals, two of whom are dead now that accused Palmar of distorting their gameplay/meta/etc and I tried to point that out either night 2 or day 3. ExO had a back and forth with him and I think ExO is town and Palmar's responses were clearly trying to get underneath him instead of breaking the issues down/meeting in the middle etc.
Additionally Artanis (and one other person???) mentioned he can talk his way out of a lynch. And I'm quite confident now that's exactly what he did last cycle.
Also there is a sense of urgency/survival in his posts and he got the townreads he needed to survive.
Even ignoring roles/mechanics, there's massive difference in the reactions from both wagons.
|
Yeah deadline at 2300 here, or an hour.
Also Shining, regarding yourself there were specific posts that jumped out at me, kinda like how you broke down disformation was mafia in Dark Tournament, you had a lot of those "breakdown" type posts here.
|
A lot of my early town reads I just started with the people that I knew and worked my way through the more discussed people or people I was just interacting with as I was catching up.
But yes, Alakaslam is mafia but IMO because of the least resistance (his own lack of resistance/gameplay and reflected in the votes) and previous arguments, he's the "safe" lynch.
|
On January 08 2016 07:08 The Shining wrote:
I just reread some of full metal, namely when I interacted with ritoky and thought I caught him and later when NM caught him and we shenannyd. I forgot I was in that game.
Idk NM. On the one hand, there are parts where I can see how you drew the parallels between the two games re: scumtoky but this game...Meh. Idk how to explain it. He seems a lot more relaxed and still involved in things. Like when he was scum and we went at it that game, he was a lot more aggressive towards me because I scum read him.
And as I'm typing this, I'm remembering he went from aggression and "this is why you're scum shining" to "you're right, I never read you right, you could be town."
He called you scum in his initial defense and then, because you're tunneled, he said he could see it coming from town. Is this another similarity?
No but in Fullmetal, we didn't clash in that game. He made the opportunistic argument when I reacted to Trfel but we were able to get him lynched that game on shennanies (and not because we had a drawn out argument) and I think both of us shennanied on him in that game, so from that end you cannot compare the two. I pushed my case on ritoky in that game whilst he was afk by talking with people near end of cycle.
|
On January 08 2016 07:19 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2016 07:12 NocturneMage wrote:On January 08 2016 07:08 The Shining wrote:
I just reread some of full metal, namely when I interacted with ritoky and thought I caught him and later when NM caught him and we shenannyd. I forgot I was in that game.
Idk NM. On the one hand, there are parts where I can see how you drew the parallels between the two games re: scumtoky but this game...Meh. Idk how to explain it. He seems a lot more relaxed and still involved in things. Like when he was scum and we went at it that game, he was a lot more aggressive towards me because I scum read him.
And as I'm typing this, I'm remembering he went from aggression and "this is why you're scum shining" to "you're right, I never read you right, you could be town."
He called you scum in his initial defense and then, because you're tunneled, he said he could see it coming from town. Is this another similarity? No but in Fullmetal, we didn't clash in that game. He made the opportunistic argument when I reacted to Trfel but we were able to get him lynched that game on shennanies (and not because we had a drawn out argument) and I think both of us shennanied on him in that game, so from that end you cannot compare the two. I pushed my case on ritoky in that game whilst he was afk by talking with people near end of cycle. I meant he and I clashed in that game. And he retracted his scum read on me because he said he looked in past games and was wrong on me before. In this game, you two are clashing and he called you scum for omgus that led to your case, and implying you're pushing a ML with walls of text on him because he has a broken wrist. But then he says you've tunneled him before in past games and he can see it coming from town. The only difference I see is he dropped the scum read completely on me in full metal, but he only said you could be town but are much less likely to be than the others on his POE.
But there's a slight similarity here, you have a reaction where you react strongly when you are scumread (not just ritoky but by anyone I think), and him backing down (IIRC???) was because he wasn't or wouldn't be able to get you lynched or something because of how you fought back. Here he knows he cannot debunk the case so he has to back down/backtrack and find a way to just say meh he's tunnelled so that I might drop it.
Also the only game where I've played with ritoky was Fullmetal. I have never played with him in Dark Tournament, newbies, 13, 14 and he wasn't in the last one.
The walls of text argument is largely because there are a lot of points in my case (and a bit of evidence to support it), whether or not I break the posts down into smaller posts doesn't matter or make his or my arguments any more or less valid.
|
My mafia lynch list right now is Alakaslam, ritoky and Palmar.
I have Shining Exo, Coag, as town
Kush, Damdred, probable town.
OWS I'm going to say right now is town.
Onegu is a complete tossup but the way he's pushing the whole late game spiel is a problem.
OO I just went through his filter and there are several posts I actually liked that demonstrated he's thinking about the game. There's a few meh posts, similar to OWS but nothing from what I am seeing is screaming mafia.
Are people scumreading him for what? Short filter? Votes? Do I need to look at something else a little closer? Or just PoE?
|
Alright, Noon is saying OO is a lynch bait player then, so likely just PoE? He's not looking scummy at all per se to me looking through his posts, probably just a low volume poster.
|
|
|
|
|
On January 08 2016 08:04 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2016 08:03 nooniansoong wrote:
Vote on maf gf since d1
No towncred given. easy to vote for him when you know who he is
Your reasoning for Noon mafia is basically TMI?
|
On January 08 2016 07:57 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2016 07:49 NocturneMage wrote:
Alright, Noon is saying OO is a lynch bait player then, so likely just PoE? He's not looking scummy at all per se to me looking through his posts, probably just a low volume poster. For me it's POE, activity and him claiming I was much more engaged in the thread early on and I'm not anymore, which means I'm scum. Which is bad because most of my posts early on were catch up posts and just scumming Ness. Then he asked palmar to validate a meta read on me from my most recent scum game and a random town game, even though I've rolled town in like 20/22 games. But when I asked him about it, he said it probably meant nothing, even though I think he scum read me
Guy replaced in night 1 and has a 3 page filter in a 220+ page game.
Content per post when I read his filter however I'd argue is pretty good, when you consider how he's reading some of the other players in the game. There are several posts in that OO filter that show critical thinking on a few of the players.
Decent shot of bad reads regardless of alignment depending on how he's reading or even in the thread. IDK.
Second point I don't think is exclusively mafia, it could be honestly just really bad town play.
|
On January 08 2016 08:08 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2016 08:04 Damdred wrote:
Congrats Obi on being basically confirmed town. To bad SL didn't make his second check better.
Interesting that palmar wouldn't move to slam yesterday when we were shenanigans.
Time to think Hmmmm. Palmar+OO+exo? If not exo, NMs ritoky case might have merit.
Hey everyone, this was after the GB lynch and before the cop flipped. Remember this?
On January 05 2016 08:04 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2016 08:03 Damdred wrote:
Well I'm glad it was the case hrm I look sorta bad but it made sense to me at the time technically it could've been a scum vs scum wagon (see gb didn't vote slam). But he also may just have given up. either way, checking slam: fantastic idea.
|
On January 08 2016 08:14 ExO_ wrote:
Holy shit why am I scummy now? Jesus Christ its like a rotating door. I really hope it's scum coming in here trying to push suspicion on me yet again, and not townies.
OWS since you are all but confirmed town at this point please listen. I'm not scum. idk what to do but I don't want to lose the game later on b/c confirmed towns scum read me and ended up pusing me.
I don't think you're scum.
|
On January 08 2016 08:06 The Shining wrote:
Lmao well shit. See NM told you he had to be GF if they wanted to keep him alive, not big XD
I also just got my wish 're: Obi so I'm pretty happy. I can take Obi off of my POE. NM, too, after this last day phase.
Slam voting exo is such wifom though. Anyone know if Slam is more likely to vote a partner here or a townie? A part of me wants to not even touch that.
Complete WIFOM, disregard, he was the clear and undisputed lynch.
I also want people to think a bit more critically on why ritoky spared Alakaslam over Moosy.
Now this flip sheds more light on that too.
It's Ritoky/Palmar/+1 folks.
|
On January 08 2016 08:24 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2016 08:23 NocturneMage wrote:On January 08 2016 08:06 The Shining wrote:
Lmao well shit. See NM told you he had to be GF if they wanted to keep him alive, not big XD
I also just got my wish 're: Obi so I'm pretty happy. I can take Obi off of my POE. NM, too, after this last day phase.
Slam voting exo is such wifom though. Anyone know if Slam is more likely to vote a partner here or a townie? A part of me wants to not even touch that. Complete WIFOM, disregard, he was the clear and undisputed lynch. I also want people to think a bit more critically on why ritoky spared Alakaslam over Moosy. Now this flip sheds more light on that too. It's Ritoky/Palmar/+1 folks. why are you not scum reading kush?
There were a few interactions that I had with him when I replaced in that indicated to me he was town.
I'll go ahead and re-read his filter from day 1 but this could also be me biased having just come off with him from Dark Tournament and Newbie 18. Varying levels of activity but posts where he cobbled together something to move the game forward.
|
On January 08 2016 08:23 ExO_ wrote:
What really strikes me about Palmar is when he got pressure he came in and talked a lot. And what he was saying looked good to me, it looked like he cared about solving the game and after I re-read his filter I started to agree. But he was entirely absent today. idk does Palmar only care when he has pressure on him or something?
still his talking on day 3/night 3 really gives me pause before I scum read him
I won't meta, but notice how he spammed the thread as I was casing ritoky lol and discussing him. People weren't around to move, ritoky reacted as he did. But he might have been priming up for a defence had my push actually gained traction.
|
On January 08 2016 08:53 nooniansoong wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2016 22:50 NocturneMage wrote:On January 05 2016 08:06 Damdred wrote:
Its very possible we had two scum up GB refused to claim blue to get a lynch averted and refused to vote on a wagon to save himself.
which technically means that it coud be palmar or slam. More than like slam but its worth considering palm. Here's an interesting tidbit based on my current bus theory - On January 05 2016 08:04 Palmar wrote:On January 05 2016 08:03 Damdred wrote:
Well I'm glad it was the case hrm I look sorta bad but it made sense to me at the time technically it could've been a scum vs scum wagon (see gb didn't vote slam). But he also may just have given up. either way, checking slam: fantastic idea. If Alakaslam flips godfather, 1000% lynch Palmar. Dunno I think this might look worse for nm than palmar.
Think it through logically. If he earned enough townreads to either stave off the lynch or getting cred through the gb lynch, he's clearly got a good shot or at least good pull for someone to listen to him.
I was also 100% scumreading Palmar the entire time, so keep that in mind as well.
Also I just brought the same quote up again just now for a reason lol.
|
On January 08 2016 09:27 ritoky wrote:
the basic case for the impatient is is: 1) nm knows slam is about to flip mafia; 2) nm plans to go 1 for 1 to get to lylo; 3) nm knows if slam flips mafia then i look like a jackass cuz i shot the only town in a list of 3 provided by hf; 4) nm pre-emptively starts to tunnel me with that factor as the centerpiece of his case; 5) NM re-inforces it post flip
5 is NAI, but the rest....keep distorting the facts.
#3 you conveniently ignore the rest of the information provided by him
#4 the central point of the case was the way you responded to Damdred at daybreak with the information you said you used, you could have given a much more straightforward and direct response but you did just the opposite.
Pre-emptively is another way you are spinning it, tone/interactions was the reason I started digging through your filter in the first place.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
