EPTOUTLAW MINI MAFIA - Page 182
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 27 2015 10:57 nooniansoong wrote: Hi everybody. I'm a kush smurf. This game I am going to try hard to work on read accuracy. I just did a quick read through. Exo gave me mafia feels in his few posts, but that doesn't mean much. I liked hf's first post. Then ness said he needed to write a lot in defense. Ness, I urge you to write as little as possible while still honestly addressing hf's concerns. On December 28 2015 06:04 nooniansoong wrote: Nooniansoong, I'm not sure how these posts fit with your process-of-elimination mindset described here. How can you get mafia feels from ExO_'s first few posts? And why do you feel that Tictock is more likely town than mafia, while you say that when you can't find a reason to townread people, you assume that they are mafia?TT was very try hard as mafia last game. I suppose his play could be scum feeling mafia fatigue. I think he is more likely low effort town. Am I misunderstanding something? | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
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sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
On January 04 2016 07:37 Palmar wrote: Stop arguing with kush guys, he's clearly the cop who do you think you are? sicklucker | ||
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sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
sry ritoky =[ | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
What exactly made you think that Onegu and Damdred are not good lynches today, I'm having trouble understanding what you're getting at. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
There is no way they're both mafia. The reason for this is that they both look bad when tictock flips. It's too much invested into getting one random guy lynched. Even if mafia knew he was a role. IF mafia knows he's a role (rolecop) only damdred can be mafia (and not onegu) because there is no way onegu claims a red on him as mafia, knowing he'll just claim blue and will never be cc'd. We also know (from the nightkills on n2) that mafia had not at day 2 hit any townies with the rolecop (JK/Cop is autokill and the masons are already outed). So, either the mafia rolecop missed, or it hit tt, in which case only damdred can be mafia. On the other hand, if mafia had no idea what tt's role was, onegu can be mafia, and if he is, damdred is almost certainly not, because people (like myself) were actively calling for the gunsmith not to CC tictock. The only problem with this theory is why would onegu go 1 for 1 on someone whose role he doesn't know and who is so scummy that people were literally mad that he didn't get lynched on day 1. It's just not worth it. So, technically it's more likely damdred is mafia, but I really, really think they're both town. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
On January 04 2016 07:43 Trfel wrote: Palmar, why did you decide that nooniansoong is town? What exactly made you think that Onegu and Damdred are not good lynches today, I'm having trouble understanding what you're getting at. That post regarding kush was sarcastic. He is still a good lynch, mostly for basically TMI on me. There is no way kush suddenly became better at figuring out alignments than those other people. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
On January 04 2016 07:43 Trfel wrote: Palmar, why did you decide that nooniansoong is town? What exactly made you think that Onegu and Damdred are not good lynches today, I'm having trouble understanding what you're getting at. I was just writing it up | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
Vote Count - Day 3 Alakaslam (3): ritoky, nooniansoong, sicklucker Palmar (3): Coagulation, NocturneMage, GlowingBear Onegu (2): Alakaslam, NocturneMage (1): Damdred, GlowingBear (1): Palmar Trfel (0): ritoky (0): Not Voting (5): Onegu, ObviousOne, ExO_, Trfel, The Shining At this time, Alakaslam is slated to be lynched. Day 3 end in on Monday, Jan 04 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). The voting thread is here. Only votes there will be counted. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'd think that they'd barely prefer rolechecking Tictock to rolechecking themselves. You don't think that Onegu can be mafia for the WIFOM play? | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On January 04 2016 07:47 Palmar wrote: I promised to talk about the onegu/damdred thing. There is no way they're both mafia. The reason for this is that they both look bad when tictock flips. It's too much invested into getting one random guy lynched. Even if mafia knew he was a role. IF mafia knows he's a role (rolecop) only damdred can be mafia (and not onegu) because there is no way onegu claims a red on him as mafia, knowing he'll just claim blue and will never be cc'd. We also know (from the nightkills on n2) that mafia had not at day 2 hit any townies with the rolecop (JK/Cop is autokill and the masons are already outed). So, either the mafia rolecop missed, or it hit tt, in which case only damdred can be mafia. On the other hand, if mafia had no idea what tt's role was, onegu can be mafia, and if he is, damdred is almost certainly not, because people (like myself) were actively calling for the gunsmith not to CC tictock. The only problem with this theory is why would onegu go 1 for 1 on someone whose role he doesn't know and who is so scummy that people were literally mad that he didn't get lynched on day 1. It's just not worth it. So, technically it's more likely damdred is mafia, but I really, really think they're both town. For the Onegu theory, isn't it possible an RC that isn't Damdred RCd TT and it was shared in scum QT? If Onegu is a goon, him going 1 for 1 to eliminate the GS before a 2nd gun is given out makes total sense. | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
TBH the super stubbornness kush has here about this read generally comes from town for the most part. Its a bad read I think, and totally about null things. But what's the point if your scum fighting tooth and nail about it? It makes you look like you have tmi maybe my expectations are a bit high but it would be better for mafia to,buddy up to someone and maybe hedge on palmar than going full throttle omg omg omg palmar is the townies town ever. Though it still feels tmi like he did with the other lynches as well. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
Probably town for some reason: Coag Onegu Damdred Exo Trfel ritoky No idea: sl OO Shining OWS slam Scummy for some reason: kush gb nocturnmage Some guys I want to say something about a) I could lynch slam, I never try to read him, I always rely on other people to do it for me. However his rage a bit out of character (he's almost always fairly jolly) so there's that. b) I was somehow under the impression shining had replaced into the game, but turns out he's been here the whole time. I don't remember literally a single thing he's written, which makes him a pretty good candidate for mafia c) I might have to downgrade ritoky, my previous townread from yesterday was mostly due to the fact he wrote a case on someone I thought would flip mafia (I think I made that point to HF). I haven't read more from him. The shot was ok though, moosy could very well have flipped mafia. It was the right way to use vigilante. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
On January 04 2016 07:53 Trfel wrote: Palmar, given how Tictock didn't claim his role despite barely avoiding being lynched Day 1, why would you expect mafia to rolecop him? I'd think that they'd barely prefer rolechecking Tictock to rolechecking themselves. You don't think that Onegu can be mafia for the WIFOM play? sure, but it can simply go wrong in too many ways for mafia. And yes, I agree it's super unlikely mafia rolechecked tt (although I hadn't thought of the part where he didn't claim on day 1, that's a good point) and then went after him. It's just not that likely he goes for a big play to kill a random player who is in most cases going to flip vanilla like that. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
On January 04 2016 07:55 The Shining wrote: For the Onegu theory, isn't it possible an RC that isn't Damdred RCd TT and it was shared in scum QT? If Onegu is a goon, him going 1 for 1 to eliminate the GS before a 2nd gun is given out makes total sense. No, because if mafia knows tt is gunsmith, they expect tt to just instantly claim that when onegu claims his red check, and when he's not counterclaimed by anyone, Onegu gets lynched for trying to lynch an uncc'd gunsmith. Mafia could not have guessed tictock would fumble around, claim miller and then gunsmith. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
In this game, he presents several scumreads and clearly cares about the Day 1 lynch. He has a progression of several scumreads and is willing to consolidate his vote such that it actually matters. Furthermore, despite being busy, he reads filters and makes reads of all of the main wagons. And in this game, he didn't care at all about the Day 1 lynch. I'm waiting for nooniansoong's explanation, but I'm having a TON of difficulty seeing his play coming from town this game. His explanation of process-of-elimination solving the game doesn't seem to be anything like how he played last game. Nooniansoong, please answer as soon as you can, I am trying to keep an open mind, but I need your answer to continue. If you are not going to answer, if you could at least tell me that you won't answer, that would be great so I can do my best to check my read on you without it. Otherwise, I'll have to go through tonight anyway. I think I want to lynch nooniansoong or Palmar most, I'll work on it tonight. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
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ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
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Damdred
15669 Posts
I'm not sure it makes him town or scum though | ||
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