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On May 18 2013 10:14 GiygaS wrote: this was my first game back in a whiiiiiiiile (won't be that long for the next one though)
Well that worked out well. Whatever, giggles reporting for duty /in
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Just getting in, question for Dam. Why did you make that post claiming Miller?
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On December 14 2015 10:30 Damdred wrote: Let me tell you why you are totally wrong in how you are approaching koshi.
1) you say that koshi is going to be super lazy and you are content voting him because that's his scum meta.
In actuality you are right about his meta but dead wrong in your interpretation of what koshi said. If you read koshis post he clearly states he's going to focus on building cases and finding mafia. A clearly different thing especially since generally cases take a decent bit of effort which scum koshi lacks.
Koshi then immediately back tracked by saying that his posts were going to be low content and possibly trash. How is his interpretation of that wrong?
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On December 14 2015 17:03 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2015 14:13 GiygaS wrote: Just getting in, question for Dam. Why did you make that post claiming Miller? Show nested quote +On December 14 2015 14:29 GiygaS wrote:On December 14 2015 10:30 Damdred wrote: Let me tell you why you are totally wrong in how you are approaching koshi.
1) you say that koshi is going to be super lazy and you are content voting him because that's his scum meta.
In actuality you are right about his meta but dead wrong in your interpretation of what koshi said. If you read koshis post he clearly states he's going to focus on building cases and finding mafia. A clearly different thing especially since generally cases take a decent bit of effort which scum koshi lacks. Koshi then immediately back tracked by saying that his posts were going to be low content and possibly trash. How is his interpretation of that wrong? Not sure why you are fixated on Damdred. Do you have any thoughts on how LS (or anyone else) reacted to Damdred's claim? Whats your opinion oh Shape?
Not particularly fixated on Damdred, after my first post I reread thread again and noticed that his point seemed off despite a lot of people going with it. Reading over the miller claim situation again, I'm being an idiot and it was an obvious joke that I missed. LS obviously understood.
Shape on the other hand took it as a calculated move on the mafia's part, which he's now abandoned. Seems to be going back and forth on a ton of theories with a sort of reckless abandon. Makes me lean town on him, and makes sense with his long stretch of no sleep. I still want to see what kind of posts he makes once he's more awake though. Speaking of sleep... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz .
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I'm sorry but what does NAI mean? I tried looking it up but couldn't find anything.
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Thanks for NAI help.
On December 14 2015 22:57 Shapelog wrote: When Giyga posts two questions about him, TT becomes defensive and ask why Giyga was fixated on Damred. Kinda of a weird thing to do this early. I would of seen how my town lean would of reacted to the questions and then go on from there. Instead, he loses this chance and deters Giyga from Damred for the time being.
This is only true if I was that focused on Damdred in the first place. The first was only because I was initially confused why he posted the miller claim. The second was because I just didn't agree with his reasoning and wanted to point it out, it wasn't because I had a scum read on him.
I'll reread tt filter and see, but all I have is null or town reads on everyone, except a tiny lean on Koshi from meta that I haven't even experienced.
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tt since you're here and it doesn't take much analysis to figure out your own thoughts, could you tell us the reason for the questions you were making?
Sidenote: since everyone will inevitably do so by end of game, just call me giggles
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Welcome to mafia, where everybody gets peeved with how their name is spelled
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Definitely misread kus I was skimming, so you're right in that respect. On the bright side, my suspicions have moved from you to tt.
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Woops forgot vote. I'll add I have a town read on ritoky as well since his posts have been short but decently high quality.
##Vote ticktock
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What about the question about shape? (you wanted my thoughts on him in particular for some reason)
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##Unvote tictock
He's swapped back to null for me, will look over more when I get home from studying.
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Home from studying. Since I'm in the note-taking mood I'm going to go through the thread again writing in a notebook to organize my thoughts a bit. I'll keep looking at the newer posts though so I'll be around. So far have null or town reads on everybody, but hoping to change that within the next 2-ish hours.
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On December 15 2015 10:36 Koshi wrote: I got to go to sleep. I don't understand how it became 2:30am. Anybody has any meta on GaygiS? Anybody played with him before? He seems a bit lackluster here. He misread the situation about the miller thing, he is trying to force us to call him giggles, he misread the "cause" "kus" thing, probably because he gets annoyed himself when his name is spelled wrong. Poor guy. Last game I played here (I think LXI?, it was 2 years ago), name was consistently misspelled. Everyone eventually just called me Giggles, so I just wanted to cut to the chase -.-
Only one in that game was kush. Other games were far longer ago
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Something came up that I have to handle for the next hour. I'll be back then.
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I'm still reading. Just got back from an rl emergency
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Finished reading through and writing general notes. Going to go through filters and hang around still. Current scum reads are on tt (again, I really don't like that list of townread retraction with NAI stuff) and shape (holy shit that random asslist in to weird sukrit fos). Might get some more/less post-filters, but we'll see.
For the record, my name has been spelled 9 different ways, so that's pretty neat. Also, these posts :D
On December 14 2015 13:40 Sukrit wrote: Onegu hacked ritokys' account?^
On December 14 2015 23:28 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2015 23:24 Shapelog wrote:If that is Onegu I will do a shot and watch as Koshi calls him cancer  . Then just read other peoples posts responding to it. No. This Onegu I could fall in love with. Therefore, if this would be Onegu I would kill Onegu for being Onegu in the past. I love this new meta of mine with all these content rich posts.
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I understand how that points to him being town, and I had a town read on him too for the same reason but those recent posts changed my mind especially when earlier erratic behavior can be attributed to his lack of sleep and relative forum inexperience.
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Still looking over everyone, but I'm sort of stuck on rels. Like I just don't understand his play coming from an experienced player (at least I presume he is based on posts). Like in addition to the things Koshi already said about him, his question seemed to go towards this weird meta-lynch on LS. Like look at this post:
There's 9 hours between this post and LS replying to his list. In these 9 hours, LS is pretty on top of things, his content isn't isolated to this list that was requested, and they're pretty relevant to the game. I don't think LS is particularly townie, but this is a pretty bullshit case on him.
It just feels like rels posted a weird question and then wanted to attach meaning to it so he put up this weird argument that doesn't even make sense. He even ignored that already noted scummy post from LS (the one where he's talking about conserving posts for the filter), the dude he's talking about.
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##Vote Rels
Pretty comfortable with this now after looking at filters. Heading to bed now
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Why do people think my read on rels was the only thing I got out of the filter/thread readover? If you look up you'll see I also had scum reads on tt and shape. Like all these people saying I didn't fulfill promises or came out of reading filters and thread again with 1 awful scum read are just wrong.
Clearly I made a mistake reading LS's filter going over it again (I honestly don't know where), so going to unvote rels and put my vote back on tt.
##unvote ##vote tictock
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I'm going to library to study so I'll be around on mobile for like 30 minutes, but then I'm going to be turning off my phone to concentrate.
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Post #342 for those who are looking at shape's post. Does not say confirmed anywhere in this post.
On December 15 2015 13:56 ritoky wrote: too many people don't have an opinion on who is mafia. too many null reads. everyone should call someone mafia in their next post and stop wasting time pussyfooting. the time for your pointless shitty information gathering questions is past; form some opinions and stop being less useful than me.
shape is town kush is probably town not interested in lynching koshi not interested in lynching damdred not interested in lynching rels no girls in the game so dunno LS alignment tt is probably mafia gb is underwhelming and should be a potential vote gig does the whole not delivering on promises shit every1 else is nai or unremarkable
##vote: glowingbear
i am voting on you to piss you off so that you can shit town on me and then i can lynch tt at the eod. please stop being worse than me, cuz if you're worse than me you're probably mafia.
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Confirmed is a pretty strong word in mafia, I think you misread him saying that he had a stronger town read on you than the ones he listed as probably.
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Just got home, probably won't post until tomorrow though as I'm dealing with subletting my place.
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On December 16 2015 11:26 Tictock wrote: I'm probably going to reread Damdred if he's not back at it D2, but I think his shenannies on Vivax were a good idea poorly executed.
I also hope Kush is able to give this game some effort now that he's got some time.
Tube is totally null to me, I almost forgot he was in this game.
I think Rit should be my first reread but my initial feeling is that his EoD lacked the bluster of some of his earlier posts and I think he's overreacting to Damdred's shenanigans, especially when GB was one of his scumreads. How in the world is a vote change to someone with no votes with very little time left a good idea with poor execution. It is a braindead move.
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On December 16 2015 22:09 Tubesock wrote: Kushm4sta knowing his alignment helps me think more about Rels. Associative reads BAD mmmkay.
Could you elaborate TS?
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Alright, let's talk about shape, who I will be voting for D2 if possible.
General themes of his play are large bodies of text that end up saying <= 1 thing. Most content he's put out is elaborate recaps or joking around. He's posted a few list posts but I'll go in to why those are not very good either.
On December 15 2015 10:30 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 09:59 LightningStrike wrote: Shape can you give me your thoughts cleary now that you did sleep? Sure. At least i can try too. I do it in a list too. I love lists for the most part. GigyaS: Null for the most part. Waiting for him to get back from studying and what not. The few posts he has posted have been decent (more towards the begaining of the day.) Still waiting for his response about me (i'm selfish) (nvm TT responded) Koshi: Improved, I wouldn't mind putting him as town atm. Hasn't done anything scummy (some light stuff at the beginning, but that about it.) But i think he should build a circle of love. Rels: I gotten a Town vibe from him, But not enough really. His LS push felt townie since for the most part it was out the window. Gotten to read D1 from dark tourney, not sure 100% yet about the whole thing yet. Tubesock: 2 posts, but 1st post was ok. Waiting to see more. GB: No Clue Vivax: MIA Surkit: Aggressive, pushes for little to no reasons. Getting a scummy feel off of him. Also involves Koshi when i point him out about TT and how I didn't push Koshi when he did and what not. I mean he's ping ponging from person from person, never really staying on a person except Koshi. Now is on me. Would be in head for 1st day lynch. Kush: Null for now. Pretty sure GB said he was scummy; Don't agree with GB but i not defending Kush. Shapelog: About to get drunk for no good reason. TT: Don't really have a full blown case on him. wished he didn't defend damred earlier on but still. Seems concern about the game. Kinda had a scummy lean/feel on him, mostly from my gut. Gut is where my shit is, so this may be shit. Ritoky: Called me town, defended(ish) me as town. Then left. Do not know why he is doing this. I mean i like it sense I am town. Maybe he really likes my plays or something, idc/idk. LS: Town vibe, rereading dark tourment. Rels did bring a good point thou. However, still like his early game and his jokingness. Also Yelling about voting seems about right. Damred: Null leaning town, most posts are NAI but time is telling. Mostly i'm just waiting. except for Surkit. Shall rethink in shower Overall, a pointless post. Pretty much all null reads, but there's a slight contradiction in that he has a town lean on Damdred but wishes TT didn't defend him earlier (referring to my two posts asking questions that weren't because of suspicions at Damdred).
On December 16 2015 02:45 Shapelog wrote: (damm i didn't know tab enters text lol)
But I left this off from far fetch theory:
At ##342, he said i was confirmed town. Not maybe, or very, Confirmed. Does this not bother anyone. I mean idk why i fighting against this so hard. But then again, everyone said I was town/thought i was townish at the beginning and i just went on posting garbage tbh. I haven't posted anything uber townie. But he ranks me higher then Koshi? Weird. Then when someone asks why he is defending me, its "next level thinking" response. Why not explain what so next level about it? Why is that only convinced thought? That derps is Town and not NAI? I mean i love the free town read, but it suspicious to me.
This was the post he was referring to: + Show Spoiler +On December 15 2015 13:56 ritoky wrote: too many people don't have an opinion on who is mafia. too many null reads. everyone should call someone mafia in their next post and stop wasting time pussyfooting. the time for your pointless shitty information gathering questions is past; form some opinions and stop being less useful than me.
shape is town kush is probably town not interested in lynching koshi not interested in lynching damdred not interested in lynching rels no girls in the game so dunno LS alignment tt is probably mafia gb is underwhelming and should be a potential vote gig does the whole not delivering on promises shit every1 else is nai or unremarkable
##vote: glowingbear
i am voting on you to piss you off so that you can shit town on me and then i can lynch tt at the eod. please stop being worse than me, cuz if you're worse than me you're probably mafia.
As you can see, no confirmed anywhere in that sentence. I pointed out earlier and he blames this on a misread of the situation and quickly backs off. Then he posts this crazy elaborate theory that he then debunks in the same post, posts it anyway, and keeps Rit under his scum leans anyway. It just feels weird that twice now he's come up for reasons to lynch the same person for awful reasons, both of which he hides under calling them far-fetched theories in the same post that he puts them up. To me, it is at worst a scummate trying to bus a teammate for credit, or at best someone trying to appear active by posting theories that end up saying nothing by the end of the same post.
And then we get his thoughts on around GB/kush: #450/451, doesn't feel good about kush or TT lynch, likes the idea of offing GB for inactivity + Show Spoiler +On December 16 2015 03:16 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2015 03:00 Koshi wrote: Fuck that shit. I am going to calm down and read. I really think Onegu should just be lynched for being the dumbest fucker alive who appears to also be mafia but seriously.
I felt really good about my TT, GB, Kush and Rels list earlier. I only feel good about GB. inactive for the most part, and anyone can get drunk. But not always at the right time. Seemed he entered when it was beneficial. On December 16 2015 03:20 Shapelog wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 15 2015 23:01 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 16:02 Tubesock wrote:On December 15 2015 15:55 GlowingBear wrote:On December 15 2015 15:53 Tubesock wrote:On December 15 2015 15:47 GlowingBear wrote:On December 15 2015 15:16 Tubesock wrote: GB who do you want to lynch?
GiygaS anything new in your notes? Who do you want to lynch? Drunk senses say we should lynxh Koshi Don't get me wrong, my best theories were drunk theories but Koshimizu doesn't seem mafia at all. What makes you think so? My drunk senses are like the spider senses of Spider-Man . They don't have trasons. Reasons. They feel So basically, so far this game you are only interested in smurf hunting (which is over). Are you going to contribute at all? I've seen nothing suspicious and worth of contributing. I won't force a read I don't have. What I do have is a town read on shapelog, he seems fairly townie to me because he drops every single thought he has on the thread, and a lot of them are paranoia, which looks townie. Other than that, nothing seems really relevant. I will do a re read once I can, but today I work until deadline. Let's see if I will be able (i'm spoiling this because of my filter is almost at 4 pages) This feels weird. Its like, "I have nothing and that's about it". He comments on me, then states he won't be here. It's almost like he skating by. Might be work, but if I say that everytime no one is getting lynched lol. Interested to see what happens when he rereads.
#469 Votes TT (first contradiction). Reasoning is just parroting. Notable quote: "I been having a scummy feel off of him and hoping he would pick up but he hasn't" (If 18 posts his opinion on TT was changed) + Show Spoiler +On December 16 2015 04:18 Shapelog wrote: Then lets fix this. We have a TT which is different from Haunted mafia. Onegu had a post about TT awhile ago. Koshi asked GB his ideas about TT. He seems different from it too IMO. I been having a scummy feel off of him and hoping he would pick up but he hasn't
##Vote Ticktock
And who knows Koshi. With step-up being random, someone might be Sugar fairy and heal.
#541/542 Scum list now in order is kush, tt at the top. He's pulled a comeplete 180 in his scum-list, and for seemingly no reason other than sheeping. Mentions "Oh yeah and GB " in next post, but somehow he's dropped to position 5, underneath Rit. Please remember that this is between far-fetched theory #1 and far-fetched-theory #2, and before GB comes back at 551, so "he became more active" is not an excuse. + Show Spoiler +On December 16 2015 06:44 Shapelog wrote: Right now i'm tore on TT. One hand i want to lynch him because earlier stuff. On the other hand, these last minute posts kinda influenced me. Might lynch someone else to see his D2 and go from there.
Right now my lynch list (from high to low): Kush (nothing from him), TT and damred, Rit? On December 16 2015 06:44 Shapelog wrote:Oh yeah and GB
582é613 wants to lynch kush because he's a lurker. Has reasons for others, but kush is at the top of the list, purely for lurking. He explains this later saying that it's because of kush's meta, but remember this in a second. + Show Spoiler +On December 16 2015 06:59 Shapelog wrote:Alright everyone we were going to lynch showed up except Kush. TT + Show Spoiler +I am not confinde in him yet. I unvoted so i could hear his agurment against Rik. Not sure about him, i been having a scummy/null feeling about him. His posts when he came back i admit feels rushed, But might be because he felt pressure from lynch? idk, but he starting to look like he did in Haunted mason Damred + Show Spoiler +GB + Show Spoiler +Again RL stuff. However, weaker case vs Damred because he had sunday to post and his posts seems lackluster. Might just be him on D1 who knows I say if Kush doesn't come we lynch him On December 16 2015 07:29 Shapelog wrote: Well something came up so i won't be here till 8 ish. ##Vote:Kush Voting kush due to lurking and guess what hes lurking. Meta read though, just best right now for me.
And now he thinks kush is scum because he has a "gut hard read" that he's scum. Completely abandoning his prior reasoning.
Anyway, I'm off to the library so I'll be around on mobile for 30 minutes, then I'll be gone until at least EoN.
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EBWOP: #582/613, damn french keyboard switching.
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Oh should be mentionned that GB and lush are at the top of the list for inactivity but they were far from most inactive in the game at those points.
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After thought I should also mention that the shenanigans yesterday only really mean anything if kush is scum, and that TT and Sanders should be equally implicated, as the mid lynch wouldn't have happened without both. TT looks worse imo based on him wasting the vote and then hammering with little time left.
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Sorry to burst your bubble shape, but sanders=autocorrected damdred somehow
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I mean I was/am on mobile and somehow i misspelled so that damdred turned in to sanders after autocorrect
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Gonna back off shape for time being after his recent activity. Still don't have him as scum but he's not my first choice (still tt in my head but I'll have to go over filter tomorrow to see why everyone else has changed their mind on him, his cases EoD1 didn't seem all that great)
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He also filtered me at the request of someone (came up town). Don't know what I think about the cases, had revised my rels read since he was more active. I'll go through his and TT's filter after my exam tomorrow (sorry for not being around a lot, expected this to start next week since it was supposed to be a bigger game initially). Also, where is Vivax? Thought he was gonna show up more after EoD yesterday.
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For the record, I will be much more active 2 days from now, as I have two more finals. One tomorrow, one the day after. After that I'm getting on a plane but it's only a 5 hour flight and I have plenty of time in between it and my last final.
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Real talk though is there something that gives push notifications on your phone whenever there's a new mafia post?
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There's no functional TL app, at least on Android. Meh, guess I'll just keep refreshing when I'm around.
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TT making a case on ritoky is completely WIFOM isn't it? And you're blaming Damdred for the GB mislynch when TT was the one to hammer it after sticking on me until the last minute. I really don't understand people's townread on him.
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On December 17 2015 02:12 GiygaS wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2015 22:09 Tubesock wrote: Kushm4sta knowing his alignment helps me think more about Rels. Associative reads BAD mmmkay. Could you elaborate TS? Also @Tubesock can you explain what you meant here? I just don't understand what you were trying to say.
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agree with Dam here. If he was mafia and kush is town there's really no reason for him to swap. He had already made a vote, the spotlight would have been off him. That last minute swap means nothing if kush turns out town. That said, I'd prefer we don't lynch kush purely for this, he's been much better since yesterday at sticking around and making reads.
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For the record it is not my first game here, just first in many years, and first with Koshi.
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Don't think about it man, the situation is completely WIFOM. You're better off spending time looking at other things, otherwise you'll just go in circles.
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Just so people don't think I'm lying about exams that I'm incredibly stressed out about, here is a screenshot of my exam schedule: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/FoJshLKh.jpg)
I have an exam in less than 8 hours so I'm going to sleep now. Read the tt wall, despite it not really giving a conclusion, it did give us a look in to his thought process. Towncred to him imo, the fact he wasn't very conclusive leads me to believe he's being honest about just not knowing rather than purposefully deceitful.
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On December 18 2015 14:02 Tictock wrote: I know Gig says he's busy for a couple more days due to finals but I can't help but feel like it's an excuse since he's basically said he has no reads besides thinking I'm scum for stuff Rit said. Since I seem to be one of the minority concerned about Gig I suppose I'm ok giving him another day. Still if he pulls a Scott here I might get somewhat unbearable later.
Reason I posted the exam schedule post. Was pissed off people were thinking I was lying about an irl thing. A lot less pissed now after reading it again but that set me off for some reason.
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On December 18 2015 17:08 Tubesock wrote: @GiygaS
First, your filter isn't very clear on Rels. What do you think. More importantly are you going to vote him?
With recent developments, Reps then TT then shape is scum list. I want to read post morning exam and decide based on that before I vote though.
On December 18 2015 17:08 Tubesock wrote:Secondly Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 15:17 ritoky wrote:On December 15 2015 15:12 Tubesock wrote:On December 15 2015 14:38 ritoky wrote: he went derpies over a missed joke backed up by 0 setup knowledge against a strong player in damdred. he is town. there are levels to this game. my read may be on another level if you don't get it. Help me get to your level. I don't think he went "against" Damdred. He says it's a bit far fetched and that he took a note of it being possible and moved on. I agree with Sukrit that both sides make setup mistakes. He then talked primarily about Koshi and Sukrit. Maybe I'm thinking that going against someone is more like how Sukrit is on Koshi or you are on TT? Even counting this as towny points, you can't say the rest of his posts are any good. Is this really the only thing you are looking at in evaluating Shapelog? as of now it is literally the only thing i am evaluating him on because it is the only thing that matters. 1 moment can make someone irrevocably town or irreversibly mafia. it is good to recognize those moments and never forget them because the rest does not matter. they eye of the chupazi sees moments of truth, it wades through the spam and locates certainty in an uncertain world. + Show Spoiler +if he goes and tries to put 8 lynches on town or gets tracked to a kill or some shit, then maybe i will reconsider but probably not cuz i like being right + Show Spoiler +this message was hard to make on an ipad, fuck vacations; overrated FYI I think this is actually the post that Shapelog was refering to as his "confirmed" town post. No, Ritoky didn't say the magic word, and confirmed usually means it's true for the entire playerbase, but to Ritoky Shapelog is "confirmed". I think that is where Shape got that from. It wasn't the list post that you quoted. I don't think it's a big point of yours, but if it is, it is wrong. Nope, shape mentions the post I was talking about by name as the post that named him confirmed town. You should actually read my post.
On December 18 2015 17:08 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2015 13:44 GiygaS wrote: Gonna back off shape for time being after his recent activity. Still don't have him as scum but he's not my first choice (still tt in my head but I'll have to go over filter tomorrow to see why everyone else has changed their mind on him, his cases EoD1 didn't seem all that great) I'm reading that as you meant "Still have him as scum but..." But I would like to know if anything has changed. I understand you are pressed for time. I would rather talk about your Rels vote, but you seem more interested in Shape. I guess TT also. I have you in my grey area. So, let's talk about something. Your top 3 vote candidates perhaps? See above
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Can you give more reasoning for wanting to lunch koshi beyond his changed thoughts? His thought process change is completely believable imo based on you two's history/his full on tilt mode yesterday.
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Tilt is a wonderful/awful thing. Besides that though, is there anything else that points him to being scummy.
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I'm around until EOD and then going to peace out probably for most of N2 to study. Going to read some filters and figure out wtf I think of the situation, after preliminary look at Rels filter I'm less sure on him. That and I'm already less sure of my TT and shape reads so I'll go over them and the Rels cases again to see what I was missing after going over filters. I feel like I'm back to like Day 1 where I had basically no scum reads.
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Rels did not OMGUS Dam. He had a case on him before dam even mentioned rels.
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Some things that irk me about Koshi: - General confidence early game about townreads
- He goes from sure on me being scum (for a very bizarre reason but still very sure) to very confident I'm town because I backed off of two things, said I don't have any scumreads and gave him links to my previous game. He later states that he got a townread on me because it doesn't seem I'm on a team for the above reasons but ehhh.
- He's getting on Damdred for his EoD1 move, but hasn't brought up TT at all in that respect. He also simultaneously thinks kush is town, which is said so many times doesn't matter. Let's go over his reasons why Damdred did what he did from a mafia perspective (thoughts in bold):
On December 18 2015 10:30 Koshi wrote: 1) pretend to care about the lynch This could equally be town or mafia. 2) put suspicion on saved person. This is possible, but he would have to think that this puts a ton of suspicion on himself as well. 3) save teammate But you think kush is town. His move wouldn't have even saved kush unless TT hammered 4) wifom in every shape or form So it's a null read 5) yolo plays to look town So it's a null read
5 different reasons why mafia could do it. There are kore and some can be split up further.
I am sleeping 0229
Everybody who townreads damdred is a bad player. So his move is either a null read or he's going for a very high-risk low-reward play at EoD.
- Calls GB town because he seems like a carefree town. Then swaps after drunk posts from GB that don't mean anything (these were only the only posts between tr->sr from GB).
- Reason he moved from TT to GB: because TT was posting (not backing off his scum tell), and GB was a liability. This seems like a bs reason abandon his TT lynch. During this swap, he moved GB to scum read, but he voted GB not because he had a scumread, but because GB was a liability.
- Had TT as a town read the next day because "There is no fucking way mafia!TT decided to be so active before the lynch and then made that ritoky is mafia case right before they shot ritoky." Later on the page he admits this is a wifom null read, and has very good reasons to scumread TT. So then why did he list him as town?
- points sukrit/onegu already brought up
Going to read through tt and then ls next. When I was reading through kush he seemed to bring up some good points. I don't like the Rels case at all right now, seems mostly based on Shape tinfoil team theories and general misinformation.
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TT, any updates on that first part of the game where you quoted LS?
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On December 19 2015 05:49 GiygaS wrote: - He's getting on Damdred for his EoD1 move, but hasn't brought up TT at all in that respect
Going to read through tt and then ls next. When I was reading through kush he seemed to bring up some good points. I don't like the Rels case at all right now, seems mostly based on Shape tinfoil team theories and general misinformation. Retracting these pieces of information after further reading. Going to go over all of the Rels/Damdred stuff one more time before I move on.
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I was talking about the case on ls that kush brought up shape.
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Can someone point me at the cases against rels and damdred? I don't want to miss any. I know I made one on rels long ago but I don't know exactly who else has.
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On December 19 2015 06:14 Koshi wrote: I don't even know how I could be mafia. I have a null read on you for reasons above. You are not the priority to lynch right now though in my eyes.
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On December 19 2015 06:17 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On December 19 2015 06:15 GiygaS wrote: Can someone point me at the cases against rels and damdred? I don't want to miss any. I know I made one on rels long ago but I don't know exactly who else has. Have you read any post this game? Seriously. I have, and I have good ideas of both overall cases, but I'm trying to seriously evaluate them and I don't want to miss anything.
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And no, not talking about team case.
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Weird timeline thing with rels: - He makes meta case on LS - I make a post about it - He reads through the thread (the infamous caps post), then makes post saying LS is town - OMGUS' on me
Ugh, I've been so fucking wishywashy with this, but I'm going to vote Rels
##Vote Rels
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I'm gonna go grab a bite and then look at LS and TT as I promised before. BRB
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Vivax is worth discussing if he shows up.
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On December 19 2015 06:41 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On December 19 2015 06:28 GiygaS wrote: Weird timeline thing with rels: - He makes meta case on LS - I make a post about it - He reads through the thread (the infamous caps post), then makes post saying LS is town - OMGUS' on me
Ugh, I've been so fucking wishywashy with this, but I'm going to vote Rels
##Vote Rels I'd like to check this, which posts are you referring to?
#269
#357
On December 15 2015 15:35 GiygaS wrote:Still looking over everyone, but I'm sort of stuck on rels. Like I just don't understand his play coming from an experienced player (at least I presume he is based on posts). Like in addition to the things Koshi already said about him, his question seemed to go towards this weird meta-lynch on LS. Like look at this post: There's 9 hours between this post and LS replying to his list. In these 9 hours, LS is pretty on top of things, his content isn't isolated to this list that was requested, and they're pretty relevant to the game. I don't think LS is particularly townie, but this is a pretty bullshit case on him. It just feels like rels posted a weird question and then wanted to attach meaning to it so he put up this weird argument that doesn't even make sense. He even ignored that already noted scummy post from LS (the one where he's talking about conserving posts for the filter), the dude he's talking about.
#369
On December 15 2015 18:03 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 09:48 LightningStrike wrote:On December 15 2015 08:44 Damdred wrote: Ls why should I not vote you ^^. Will be home to read and bomb soon JESUS CHRIST I TOWN THIS GAME TOO THATS WHY. .....LIKE YOU JUST PLAYED WITH ME WHEN I HAD A TERRIBLE DAY 1. Anyways just got done with my last final and will read what I missed after that post. Fuck he's probably town ##Unvote
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On December 15 2015 18:14 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 15:35 GiygaS wrote:Still looking over everyone, but I'm sort of stuck on rels. Like I just don't understand his play coming from an experienced player (at least I presume he is based on posts). Like in addition to the things Koshi already said about him, his question seemed to go towards this weird meta-lynch on LS. Like look at this post: There's 9 hours between this post and LS replying to his list. In these 9 hours, LS is pretty on top of things, his content isn't isolated to this list that was requested, and they're pretty relevant to the game. I don't think LS is particularly townie, but this is a pretty bullshit case on him. It just feels like rels posted a weird question and then wanted to attach meaning to it so he put up this weird argument that doesn't even make sense. He even ignored that already noted scummy post from LS (the one where he's talking about conserving posts for the filter), the dude he's talking about. Here is the content LS produced between my question and my accution in those 9 hours, excluding the posts that answer to me: Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 06:08 LightningStrike wrote: Sorry I been conserving my posts a little bit more as I had 1 page of posts already so I trying to limit myself a little bit now. But Koshi pretty much town for me atm. Also Damdred if you are here can you give me your thoughts on TT or other The smurf guy please? Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 07:54 LightningStrike wrote:On December 15 2015 07:52 ritoky wrote:On December 15 2015 06:08 LightningStrike wrote: Sorry I been conserving my posts a little bit more as I had 1 page of posts already so I trying to limit myself a little bit now. But Koshi pretty much town for me atm. Also Damdred if you are here can you give me your thoughts on TT or other The smurf guy please? this is a very bad post. clearly reading the thread, clearly hyper aware of the post limit, has a motive for not posting frequently; yet in his hello senpai post he elects to give no content of his own and simply defers all content to damdred. i noticed you, even if no one else did. I gave a read in that post plus asking Damdred about you? Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 07:58 LightningStrike wrote:On December 15 2015 07:56 ritoky wrote:On December 15 2015 07:54 LightningStrike wrote:On December 15 2015 07:52 ritoky wrote:On December 15 2015 06:08 LightningStrike wrote: Sorry I been conserving my posts a little bit more as I had 1 page of posts already so I trying to limit myself a little bit now. But Koshi pretty much town for me atm. Also Damdred if you are here can you give me your thoughts on TT or other The smurf guy please? this is a very bad post. clearly reading the thread, clearly hyper aware of the post limit, has a motive for not posting frequently; yet in his hello senpai post he elects to give no content of his own and simply defers all content to damdred. i noticed you, even if no one else did. I gave a read in that post plus asking Damdred about you? you gave a 0 content town read on the guy spamming the thread who is probably never getting lynched on day 1 and whom the person who's opinion you're deferring to said he is never lynching day 1. it is the easiest read to just make offhand. I had him null leaning town and was giving a update on my read on him....................... Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 08:03 LightningStrike wrote:FYI I just finished a game + Show Spoiler + and can now focus more on this game now! Anyways I do think ritoky is town atm with his questioning towards. You dirty liar. ##Vote GiygaS
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Dam you gonna pull some EoD shenanigans again or just die?
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On December 14 2015 22:57 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2015 17:42 GiygaS wrote:
Shape on the other hand took it as a calculated move on the mafia's part, which he's now abandoned. Seems to be going back and forth on a ton of theories with a sort of reckless abandon. Makes me lean town on him, and makes sense with his long stretch of no sleep. I still want to see what kind of posts he makes once he's more awake though. Speaking of sleep... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz .
Wait till you see drunken shapelog. Shit will hit the fan if i decide to get drunk while playing  . The prophecy has been fulfilled.
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On December 20 2015 11:59 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2015 08:03 Half the Sky wrote:
Toy soldiers Koshi and kushm4sta (Town Vanilla), had been torn to pieces.
Oh wow n/m I fail at reading, just saw Kush when I glanced at this first. ... Uhh, well then this is shit for us then. 5/3 Sorry Koshi. >.< [/center] TT so town now it hurts. Packing my life to move for an internship so I won't be around tonight, but bought TL+ so I can archive all the filters and such for my flight tomorrow.
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I'm pretty sure theres some errors in the way you set up your probability in that post, false dichotomy and all that. I'll look in to it tomorrow morning.
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Fuck it, im not gonna sleep right now anyway. Let's assume you are telling the truth in your claim that you saw TT go to Kush's last night. There are multiple reasons this could happen: - TT is blue (Doubt there's two trackers, and it cant be doc or jailer so either rb, or detective) - TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) - TT is wanderer (i.e. Chocolate) - TT got a gift of gun and used it on kush (NAI, very unlikely not even going to bother) - TT got a non gun gift and used it on kush (NAI)
Note that these most likely won't add up to 1 since we're ignoring/fubbing a bunch of things. This is incredibly shady math and I hate myself for doing it, but it's better than the one above so I'll make the sacrifice.
Let's say there were 2-3 blue roles in the game. Save you, that means there's 1-2 left. We'll add an additional multiplier based on the specific blue role he had to get (1/4 since we'll ignore tracker). We'll also assume that if he is blue he purposefully visited kush. P(TT is blue) = 0.03125 - 0.0625
Now we know there are 3 mafia. Then the chance mafia chose him to use kp is 1/3. (Assuming the mafia wanted to kill kush) P(TT is mafia) = 0.125
With our assumption of 1-2 Blue, and 3 mafia. There are 3-4 greens left. Additionally apply odds of him getting chocolate (we'll say 1/4 again) and of him visiting kush (1/9). P(TT is chocolate) = 0.01042 - 0.01389
We'll say there were 2-3 gifts handed out in general (out of the 13 players). For our purposes, the gifts that apply here are rolecheck, watcher, and visiting the person who gets nightkilled (this one is important). For the first two, odds are 1/9 he would visit kush. For the third, odds of him visiting kush would be 100%. P(TT got a non-gun gift and used it on kush) = 0.02686 - 0.040293
Sum range: 0.19353 - 0.241683
"Actual" probability (just much closer) of each: - TT is blue (Doubt there's two trackers, and it cant be doc or jailer so either rb, or detective) 12.9% - 32.3% - TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) 51.7% - 64.6% - TT is wanderer (i.e. Chocolate) 4.3% - 7.2% - TT got a gift of gun and used it on kush (NAI, very unlikely he wouldn't shoot vivax. Not even going to bother) ~0% - TT got a non gun gift and used it on kush (NAI) 11.1% - 20.8%
Again, these are very rough, but closer.
Sleep time.
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Note, chance of wanderer goes up if you think there can be more than 1.
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All of the math above (especially shapes) really upsets me, as someone who is doing a Bachelors of Mathematics in CS :'(
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OH forgot conclusion. I still think TT is town, and would prefer lynching vobby or whatever the fuck we call him these days.
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Shape look up the monty hall problem
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I also did put in the chance of actually getting the gift in my calculation so you didn't have to. I'm also applying modifiers in my own head (this doesn't affect the percentages) based on how scummy they're acting. The second part of your post is saying that he's too town to be town when that really doesn't make sense.
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On December 21 2015 00:37 Shapelog wrote: Giygas Khan is more and more like Khan everyday. The real Khan built schools and educated the mongrels. Now we find out that he has a math degree.
Just waiting for the Mongolian horde and for him to reveal that he has "rape" (some was rape, others did it actually to survive) people. Wtf man. Wtf
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It's a really risky move on Shape's part to claim tracker as mafia since we've seen no blue roles flip yet. If we have one other tracker (maybe more than one-shot) than he's risking just outing himself immediately. If he was mafia it would be an high-risk low-reward play, where he was typing for 3 hours to do it. I just don't seem scum shape doing it.
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It's so obviously that Vivax is scum though, so I'd prefer getting some breathing room tonight.
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Holy shit you were working on it that entire time.      
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About to get on plane, gonna quickly post a list and vote.
Town (in order) Shape Tube
Scum (in order) Vivax Tt
Null (in order of scumminess) Damdred LS Sukrit
##Vote Vivax
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My saved file was broken so I didn't get to read on the flight. Why did sentiment change from Vivax being the safe lynch to TT being the safe lynch?
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Also if we have a protection blue it's not technically lylo since we could get a lucky protection.
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Vivax, why are you voting sukrit?
Also, Shape's deciphered post: + Show Spoiler +Yes, I am Rsoultin Or Am I? A course not, I can not believe you think i am a Rsoultin Smurf. I am Palmar Who is a Wander. Honestly why do you think I am a Smurf. LOL BeSt Idea! Speak only in Caesar Cipher for the rest of the game. THAT WOULD BE SO ANNOYING HAHA. I do not like you Onegu. But chance are your either town or mafia at this point. Your a Wildcard and i got to see a scum flip before i can even really make a case for your towniness or your mafianess. I wonder if you did the decryption yourself, Or you waited until someone saw that it was a Caesar Cipher. TT prob. did it and posted it.
"But chance are your either town or mafia at this point" - the reads made here are incredible.
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On December 21 2015 04:07 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2015 04:03 GiygaS wrote: About to get on plane, gonna quickly post a list and vote.
Town (in order) Shape Tube
Scum (in order) Vivax Tt
Null (in order of scumminess) Damdred LS Sukrit
##Vote Vivax What changed your mind on me? Just the odds surrounding your claim after I thought about it again.
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I'm around as well. I think TT is next lynch, I have absolutely no idea on the third member though.
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On December 23 2015 04:31 LightningStrike wrote: giy if you have a gun to your head who would be the 3rd scum and why? Probably Damdred but I'm not confident in that at all
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On December 23 2015 05:07 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2015 04:59 GiygaS wrote:On December 23 2015 04:31 LightningStrike wrote: giy if you have a gun to your head who would be the 3rd scum and why? Probably Damdred but I'm not confident in that at all Any reason why? I have him as town atm. The last minute vote switch to Vivax D1 just seems too convenient.
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gg all, going to be watching with interest
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