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On December 03 2015 13:48 Trfel wrote:
Does anyone have any thoughts at all about the previous game quote I brought up about Damdred and LightningStrike?
I think that the two games look extremely similar to me, thus I think that it makes Damdred likely mafia. I realize that this is subjective and would like to hear what others have to say.
I will take a look at it tomorrow, but that kind of read is one of my least favorite. Meta works because it is generalized trends in play. Different circumstances, games, and context often makes similar looking quotes do not mean the same thing for alignment. Even if the games seem similar.
Gnight folks.
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On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM.
The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped.
The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it.
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Reposting this since Rels drowned it out with his aggression towards me last night. Seems relevant.
On December 03 2015 14:52 DoYouHas wrote:
1. HtS padded her filter with a lot of recapping and clarifying and meta that doesn't lead to conclusions.
2. HtS spreads around quite a bit of suspicion but does not actually push anyone or really take the lead on anything.
- She scumleans me, plants her vote, and then does nothing to see me lynched. According to #555 I was actually more of a null read and her suspicion and vote were to get me to post more. There is no follow through here, either pressure wise or lynchwise.
- She scumleans kush, points out some stuff that she doesn't like, and then does nothing about it until shenanigans.
3. In spite of all her RL issues she has been plenty active, she is just not really doing anything except engaging Trfel and playing the middle ground.
4. Her play towards LS is highly suspicious. The way I understand it, HtS knows LS better than most. She was reading him critically before any of us and moved him towards null/scum first. She seems unwilling to lynch LS... until Damdred and Palmar take the lead. Then she provides a weak additional reason to not like LS (#627) and switches votes. Does she feel the need to justify her switch beyond just agreeing with Damdred and Palmar?
Here is the important part. Right after LS re-enters the thread super emotional, HtS starts positioning for a townflip and distancing herself from responsibility for the lynch.
LS is someone she knows better than most. She immediately starts doubting the wagon after he reenters the thread. Her response is, "quick! LS, prove to me you are town!" and "crap, I can't get a good enough sense of his meta in 20 minutes to derail this thing!". With the level of doubt she displayed on the wagon she was helping push she should have been among the first to push onto another candidate. Whether that is me or kush, which would make sense for her, or even just Moosy. Any of those plays makes sense for HtS. Instead, she sits on wagon she doesn't like for 30 minutes and only switches when somebody else will get the blame for starting a counterwagon, incidentally, onto another townie.
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BTW, this is the second time everyone ends up agreeing with me and I'm still on most of the scumlists. -_-
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On December 04 2015 09:07 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote:
I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either.
What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for? Because they're really darn accurate. Night kill analysis is amazing. @Fecalfeast, why else would Damdred be killed? The NocturneMage read seems to be by far the most likely. And that wasn't the only reason that I mentioned that the night kill makes me want to lynch NocturneMage less.
It could be as simple as Damdred is a solid town player, and was read as town by the majority of the players. He clearly had influence as evidenced by the LS wagon. That is enough to make him a good kill. His reads are worth more now that we know for sure he was town, and should be considered carefully, but there is plenty to make him a good nightkill beyond his reads. (Sorry, I know you wanted FF to answer)
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On December 04 2015 09:10 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:55 DoYouHas wrote:On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM. The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped. The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it. I see what you are saying here but there are people here saying she is town for that, and there are proven cases of her doing this as town when she doesn't have an alternative scumread. She has mislynched people as town/town-oriented third party trying to do stuff like this. The problem is where she actually goes and why. She would have mislynched LS if it was in her best interest to mislynch him, the reason she went to kush is because kush was scumreading her. This is what I was saying before, she has a track record of wanting to kill people who want her dead. The reason I asked you before what her role was in the lynch is because generally her play as mafia is to do one of two things - make a bunch of cases and do nothing with it, or ferret people and do nothing with it, or she WILL push someone but she won't do it until ridiculously close to end of cycle.
I feel like we are arguing semantics but I want to be right about this.
-She does have alternative scumreads as well as a perfectly good policy lynch in moosy as options.
-It is in her best interest to lynch him, because she was positioning for a townflip
On December 03 2015 07:35 Half the Sky wrote:
Shining - checking the Drams filter then. I think he was in school at that time so that should normalise for his being afk.
.....and this is why I stated he had 30 minutes to talk to us. Or whatever I said, it's more than enough time to discuss and run an alternate lynch. He does freak out at the slightest bit of pressure and he claims prematurely when he's blue, here he claimed VT though.
Paraphrasing, "I'm giving him plenty of time to convince me otherwise, not my fault, I'm reasonable with the person I'm lynching"
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On December 04 2015 09:33 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:24 DoYouHas wrote:On December 04 2015 09:10 NocturneMage wrote:On December 04 2015 08:55 DoYouHas wrote:On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM. The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped. The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it. I see what you are saying here but there are people here saying she is town for that, and there are proven cases of her doing this as town when she doesn't have an alternative scumread. She has mislynched people as town/town-oriented third party trying to do stuff like this. The problem is where she actually goes and why. She would have mislynched LS if it was in her best interest to mislynch him, the reason she went to kush is because kush was scumreading her. This is what I was saying before, she has a track record of wanting to kill people who want her dead. The reason I asked you before what her role was in the lynch is because generally her play as mafia is to do one of two things - make a bunch of cases and do nothing with it, or ferret people and do nothing with it, or she WILL push someone but she won't do it until ridiculously close to end of cycle. I feel like we are arguing semantics but I want to be right about this. -She does have alternative scumreads as well as a perfectly good policy lynch in moosy as options. -It is in her best interest to lynch him, because she was positioning for a townflip On December 03 2015 07:35 Half the Sky wrote:
Shining - checking the Drams filter then. I think he was in school at that time so that should normalise for his being afk.
.....and this is why I stated he had 30 minutes to talk to us. Or whatever I said, it's more than enough time to discuss and run an alternate lynch. He does freak out at the slightest bit of pressure and he claims prematurely when he's blue, here he claimed VT though. Paraphrasing, "I'm giving him plenty of time to convince me otherwise, not my fault, I'm reasonable with the person I'm lynching" She would have positioned for a townflip either way....so you are still right. I'm not fighting you at all DYH, but if you are so convinced she's mafia, why don't you vote her with me?
Done.
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On December 04 2015 10:34 disformation wrote:Ah actually, upon looking at DYH again... Let me bring up Rels case again. Cause it got kinda lost in the forest. Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 20:19 Rels wrote:DoYouHas is probably scum: a solid case1. Agreeing to a setup idea that is benefit to scum; without being the first to propose itTalking about this post: On December 01 2015 08:27 Damdred wrote:
Firstly for the roles, nobody should talk about this besides an opinion going forward, if you are a named towny you should claim asap, it narrows down the pool that we lynch from and also gives us more to work with. however if you are the Vet do not claim unless absolutely necessary. If you are shot claim if you aren't shut the hell up. After you use your power claim straight away your findings if you are one shot obviously do not pussy foot away and give mafia the ability to cause town to second guess you. As such thank you for your time in reading this.
On December 01 2015 08:32 DoYouHas wrote:
I second the immediate claim by a boxer if we have one. boxer claiming is (was =X ) bad for town 50% of the time, so this post pushes a scum advantage. Furthermore, he's agreeing with Damdred on that, not taking responsability for the idea. 2. His Trfel's read makes no senseAlready explained here: On December 01 2015 22:22 Rels wrote:I don't like that progression from DoYouHas. On December 01 2015 08:57 DoYouHas wrote:On December 01 2015 08:50 Trfel wrote:On December 01 2015 08:47 Damdred wrote:On December 01 2015 08:44 Trfel wrote:
Hm, LightningStrike hasn't posted at all yet. Very suspicious, I would have expected him to be really excited for this game since he hasn't played in a while.
Disformation, why are you only bringing up Damdred's post now, and not right when he posted it? Trfel might be mafia since LS clearly posted in the thread why he wouldn't be here till later. Interesting... Okay, what the heck. First of all, if you think about it for a second, you can probably see what I was trying to do. You may not agree with my method, but you know me well enough to see it. Second, why would does this make me mafia in any way? Like, why does the fact that LightningStrike posted that he wouldn't be here at the start of the game have any bearing on my alignment? I assumed your post was a bit of a joke. Reconsidering with how fast you jumped on the defensive here. "Trfel you might be scum." 2 posts later: On December 01 2015 08:57 Damdred wrote:
You are an idiot but you are most likely town.
If you can't explain in a coherent way why I am mafia then obviously I am not. Damdred: "Trfel is most likely town." 1 post later: On December 01 2015 09:00 DoYouHas wrote:
I'm pretty happy with Damdred atm. With the exception of one point in his first post I feel like I've got the mind meld going with him... for now.
TLDR: you crazy trfel "Trfel you're crazy." So Trfel is considered town here. It doesn't add up. ##Vote DoYouHas 3. A total apathy towards the lynchHere are the two posts DYH made after coming back to EOD: On December 03 2015 07:01 DoYouHas wrote:
Catching up now.
I can't see any scum motivation behind Trfel's hard defending of me. It doesn't even look like positioning for my flip is even really a possibility here. I was going after him, voted him, thread sentiment is against me. I'm an easy EASY person for scum trfel to keep the heat on. That he ran the other direction when there is no reason to as mafia is major town points in my book. Unvoting. On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is. DYH just didn't care about the lynch. The third post was only made after I tried to get people to vote him. Furthermore, disfo bought a really good point about sheeping his "townreads": On December 03 2015 08:15 disformation wrote:On December 03 2015 08:12 Rels wrote:
I try to shenanni on DYH and nothing happens.
fidei says something about kush and everybody switches.
fuck that I should have yelled Wanted to switch to DYH, but decided to go into his filter and make a post... I kinda want to restate that post, because I think he would be a good lynch so: His reason for voting LS: On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is. Last mention of me in his filter: On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels. So I am kinda asking myself where he got that magical TR on me from... Taking a break now. ConclusionIf we have a vig, you know who to shoot.
On December 04 2015 10:43 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 10:38 NocturneMage wrote:On December 04 2015 10:34 disformation wrote:Ah actually, upon looking at DYH again... Let me bring up Rels case again. Cause it got kinda lost in the forest. On December 03 2015 20:19 Rels wrote:DoYouHas is probably scum: a solid case1. Agreeing to a setup idea that is benefit to scum; without being the first to propose itTalking about this post: On December 01 2015 08:27 Damdred wrote:
Firstly for the roles, nobody should talk about this besides an opinion going forward, if you are a named towny you should claim asap, it narrows down the pool that we lynch from and also gives us more to work with. however if you are the Vet do not claim unless absolutely necessary. If you are shot claim if you aren't shut the hell up. After you use your power claim straight away your findings if you are one shot obviously do not pussy foot away and give mafia the ability to cause town to second guess you. As such thank you for your time in reading this.
On December 01 2015 08:32 DoYouHas wrote:
I second the immediate claim by a boxer if we have one. boxer claiming is (was =X ) bad for town 50% of the time, so this post pushes a scum advantage. Furthermore, he's agreeing with Damdred on that, not taking responsability for the idea. 2. His Trfel's read makes no senseAlready explained here: On December 01 2015 22:22 Rels wrote:I don't like that progression from DoYouHas. On December 01 2015 08:57 DoYouHas wrote:On December 01 2015 08:50 Trfel wrote:On December 01 2015 08:47 Damdred wrote:On December 01 2015 08:44 Trfel wrote:
Hm, LightningStrike hasn't posted at all yet. Very suspicious, I would have expected him to be really excited for this game since he hasn't played in a while.
Disformation, why are you only bringing up Damdred's post now, and not right when he posted it? Trfel might be mafia since LS clearly posted in the thread why he wouldn't be here till later. Interesting... Okay, what the heck. First of all, if you think about it for a second, you can probably see what I was trying to do. You may not agree with my method, but you know me well enough to see it. Second, why would does this make me mafia in any way? Like, why does the fact that LightningStrike posted that he wouldn't be here at the start of the game have any bearing on my alignment? I assumed your post was a bit of a joke. Reconsidering with how fast you jumped on the defensive here. "Trfel you might be scum." 2 posts later: On December 01 2015 08:57 Damdred wrote:
You are an idiot but you are most likely town.
If you can't explain in a coherent way why I am mafia then obviously I am not. Damdred: "Trfel is most likely town." 1 post later: On December 01 2015 09:00 DoYouHas wrote:
I'm pretty happy with Damdred atm. With the exception of one point in his first post I feel like I've got the mind meld going with him... for now.
TLDR: you crazy trfel "Trfel you're crazy." So Trfel is considered town here. It doesn't add up. ##Vote DoYouHas 3. A total apathy towards the lynchHere are the two posts DYH made after coming back to EOD: On December 03 2015 07:01 DoYouHas wrote:
Catching up now.
I can't see any scum motivation behind Trfel's hard defending of me. It doesn't even look like positioning for my flip is even really a possibility here. I was going after him, voted him, thread sentiment is against me. I'm an easy EASY person for scum trfel to keep the heat on. That he ran the other direction when there is no reason to as mafia is major town points in my book. Unvoting. On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is. DYH just didn't care about the lynch. The third post was only made after I tried to get people to vote him. Furthermore, disfo bought a really good point about sheeping his "townreads": On December 03 2015 08:15 disformation wrote:On December 03 2015 08:12 Rels wrote:
I try to shenanni on DYH and nothing happens.
fidei says something about kush and everybody switches.
fuck that I should have yelled Wanted to switch to DYH, but decided to go into his filter and make a post... I kinda want to restate that post, because I think he would be a good lynch so: His reason for voting LS: On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is. Last mention of me in his filter: On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels. So I am kinda asking myself where he got that magical TR on me from... Taking a break now. ConclusionIf we have a vig, you know who to shoot. I don't have a definitive read on Rels yet, but are you suggesting that DYH is bussing HTS for cred? I'm saying this because he's called her out for near identical (and obviously less personal but still just as valid) reasons that I know she is mafia. Then again nearly everyone was scumreading him? Meh I wasn't halfway through the thread when I started breaking on Dani, but what makes you think this? My big problem with DYH: Look at his filter. Outside the case on HtS how many reads are there? + Show Spoiler +At the EoD1 he says I am a town read of him, when the last mention of me is being in the "middleground-group". So the few reads are kinda magical and can come and go without explanation. And when this is pointed out, he flat out ignores it.
On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote:Too make my argument a bit more readable: - scum is hiding in the middleground
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 08:30 DoYouHas wrote:I don't like a lot about Trfel right now. I don't like that he made a mountain out of a molehill with Damdred and did a snap OMGUS. I don't like how he is sliding between sheeping Palmar and Rels. I don't like how he is complaining that Damdred won't work with him, which should not matter unless his read did a 180 and he is confident Damdred is town, and I really don't like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk.
- Was reading the middleground ppl (Fid,HtS,LS,disfo), but haven't got anything out of it
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
- "Got no scumreads" (really?) "so i am sheeping town" "btw disfo totally town now"
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens.
On December 04 2015 10:56 disformation wrote:
So DYH could have basically voted anyone D1...
Also the decent posts, where he is looking at HtS, start N1... after NocturneMage got replaced in...
His case is also posted after NM comes in and posts that piece on HtS very likely to be mafia...
(Post#1)Rels Case:
1. Rels is wrong. The value in the information of a confirmed town through claim to town far exceeds the value of setup information to scum. (And this is even granting that scum don't know the setup, which we don't know.) Espousing this does not make me scum, it makes me right.
2. Rels is misrepresenting me and ignoring my actual read progression on Trfel. My disagreement with Trfel on Damdred and subsequent response to him asking "am I sane or not" is not a townread. My mindmeld post was written without regard to Damdred's weak townread on Trfel.
My actual read progression: Suspicious -> Null -> Scum -> Town -> Unsure without review
3. I admit I was not an effective scumhunter day1. I had a feel for the game which led me to believe that there were scum in the middleground. I spent some time looking at playres I felt fit that description, but nothing really stuck out to me such that I wanted to push a lynch on any of them. The only thing I felt was a lack of content from LS. I didn't think it was enough of a reason to push him, so instead I asked for his reads on my mover and shaker group, Damdred, Palmar, Rels.
The smart play for town if you do not have any good scumreads of your own at the end of the day is to sheep the scumreads of those you believe to be town, which is exactly what I did. And yes, Disfo gets lumped into my towngroup. That was my gut read from the earlier filter reading. Not particularly useful when I was searching for scum as I was choking on town/null reads and unable to find things I wanted to pursue. It was useful in deciding where to place my vote at the end of the day.
(Post#2)
0 reads?
Townread-Damdred
Townread-Palmar
Townread-Shining
Scumread-Trfel
Townread-Trfel
Townread-Disfo
For what is essentially a 1 page filter with the HtS stuff I get more solid reads in here than your average joe. Yeah, I sucked at getting scumreads but that is just a fact of my Day1.
(Post#3)
See response to post 1.
(Post#4)
It is quite the opposite of what you are saying here. There is virtually nobody I could have put my vote on by the EoD and not caught flak for it. Leaving yourself options is when you make a bunch of null reads or spread around suspicion on multiple targets so that you are justified no matter where your vote lands.
I looked into HtS more carefully because of Kush flip. NM even brings up my post as the reason he first is suspecting her.
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Apologies for not playing yesterday. It was a really nice day filled with things I enjoy. I'm in a good mood and I've got some more time now that it is the weekend. I will be around/in and out for most of today.
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Damdred Reread
Palmar- believes he is town through most of the day. Becomes a little less convinced before he dies, but still a townread.
Shining- Townread
Rels- Townread, thinks he has a penchant for tunneling.
LS- He believes the EoD D1 makes LS town.
Trfel- Town that is wrong. Spends a lot of time trying to figure trfel out and waivers a lot.
Fid- Townread early, likes what he has to say but is suspicious of him for activity/meta reasons.
Disfo- Townread but not part of the "Strong town circle"
DYH- Liked me early, didn't mention me much, but was ok with shifting to me or kush at EoD. So, null/scumlean.
Moosy- Null
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Where Damdred overlaps with Kush is the townread on Fid, and that is about it.
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On December 06 2015 05:39 LightningStrike wrote:
DYH if for some reason HTS was not in threat of being lynched who would you lynch instead and why?
Probably Trfel. I've been rereading D1 and I still don't like his early play. He seems all over the place with tons of effort and lots of shifting reads. What fooled me when I observed his last game about him was I couldn't believe that someone could be so bullheaded and so wrong and be scum. It fits for him to muck up the thread and just force out so much content that it is hard to see the trees as Disfo would put it. I'm not all the way there on a scum case for him but I do think he has a reasonable chance of flipping scum and flipping him would clarify a lot about this game as virtually everyone has interacted with and/or taken a stance on him.
So my pick is mostly a dislike of some of his play. A desire to simplify the game by taking one of the biggest ???s out. And a fear read because I've thrown by his scumgame before.
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My PoE right now looks like this:
Town: Rels, Shining, LS(I am still on board with the EoD VT claim)
Townlean: Disfo, Palmar, Fid (need to look into him more)
Unfiltered: NM, FF
Suspicious but incomplete: Trfel
Scum: HTS
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NM gives me the town feels. Keeping the thread focused on his top scumread for today while still pressuring you(LS), Fid, Trfel, and a little bit Palmar.
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Feel better HtS. I wish your lane many successful ganks by a competent Chen.
Huzzah!
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Looking at HtS's filter I have a couple of thoughts.
1. I am very wrong about Trfel, he is town.
2. Disfo may not be the townie that I thought he was. There are a few things that look off to me between him and HtS.
3. The NM bus theory of Trfel may not be far-fetched. HtS was soft defending moosy.
Will elaborate assuming I live. Pretty good bet.
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So this analysis is very similar to votecount, but it is based off of lists that a scum player makes. Every scum player I have ever played with will include at least 1 scum-mate on lists that they make.
Here is HtS's first list: + Show Spoiler +On December 01 2015 09:31 Half the Sky wrote:Hey everyone. A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed - Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough. Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why: Show nested quote +Second, why would does this make me mafia in any way? Like, why does the fact that LightningStrike posted that he wouldn't be here at the start of the game have any bearing on my alignment? When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up. Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously. disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game. So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation. Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence. Moving to Palmar/Shining...
1. Damdred, Rels, Moosy, Trfel, Disfo
HtS's second, third, & lynch list: + Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote:
I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads.
Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere.
Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case.
2. Trfel, Damdred, Fid, Disfo
3. Trfel, Disfo, LS
Lynch: DYH, Kush, Onegu(pure policy)
HtS's fourth list: + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 04:48 Half the Sky wrote:I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible. Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 03:13 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 03:06 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 03:04 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 03:01 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 02:58 Trfel wrote:On December 02 2015 23:07 Half the Sky wrote:
Alright, I just woke up, and I am not feeling any better. I'm headed to a doctor's appointment in an hour, but I am hoping to get back in thread barring anything serious.
I fully realise I have a shittonne to catch up on - if anyone has any questions for me, or anything specific they want me to weigh on, please prompt me and I'll do so when I return. First of all, really sorry that you aren't feeling well. Hope you can recover soon. Why did you vote for DoYouHas instead of kushm4sta? Why didn't you include LightningStrike in the lynch list? Now that he's (at least mostly, I think?) answered your questions, what do you think about him? Why did your read on me (Trfel) change? read her filter if you want to see her progression on me  + Show Spoiler + And where did you get that conclusion from? On December 02 2015 04:38 Half the Sky wrote:On December 02 2015 04:24 LightningStrike wrote:Okay I here now and Tfrel I did answer HTS just not directly quoted. On December 02 2015 04:15 Half the Sky wrote:
Looking at 346/349 -
LS, I'm not referring to meta. Let's make sure I'm not misunderstanding you here.
I'm not talking about Palmar's tone in general. I'm talking about his case. If you read the context differently, then tell me how you interpreted that.
You are saying that he's town because his tone is serious and from 349 it's based on meta. Okay fine, but regardless of meta, why would Palmar's case NOT be serious? What I'm trying to say here is that you are townreading him for a poor reason. I didn't say it wasn't serious? Anyways the way he argued Shining like I said had a serious tone plus like said he did a very similar thing to me in Metal Mini when I was fighting him and felt frustrated with him. It took me a bit of arguing to get him to townread me in that game because I was still a newbie lol.... So it a little both but more towards personal experience with him. Argh, no. I am saying that you said his tone is serious. In any case, you want to say you are giving a personal read towards him. Alright, I still think this is a bad read because like I said before Palmar really can't be done off one read, but now that I've fleshed it out I don't think you are mafia for this. Still need to read the rest of your filter in conjunction with Trfel/Damdred when I return though. Yeah.... "I don't think you are mafia for this" means that Half the Sky is not scum reading you for one specific thing in your filter. As in, she could be scum reading you for the entire rest of your filter. And that's not a townread on that one thing either. Does anyone know if LightningStrike is generally this self-conscious as town with regards to other people's townreads on him? To make a big jump like this and try to assume everything is a townread? Because this is making me doubt my earlier town lean on him. The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred. DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush. Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from. Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread: Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will. Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter. Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it) Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in...
4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo
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Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia.
However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting.
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I think the cross between these two methods is a pretty good reason to scumread Disfo. Please look into it yourselves.
##Vote: Disformation
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It is not about # of interactions. It is about who is out of place in the people HtS decided to list once you eliminate those confirmed as town.
Her interaction with Trfel makes him very likely town.
Damdred is confirmed town.
Rels is likely town and her interaction with him is not out of place.
Kush is confirmed town.
I'm town. Also, her scumread on me was consistent and something that she came back to more than once.
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But you do bring up a good point. I need to look into this from your side of things. Will filter you after dinner stuff.
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Dinner stuff ran long. More case making delayed till tomorrow
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EPT
