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On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work.
It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH.
How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it.
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On December 09 2015 03:08 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. Why wouldn't it make sense (real question) ? What makes sense in that team is that Trfel is scumreading NM but townreading DYH, when there is an association between their strategies D2.
Clarification question - Is this separate from your NM read evolution argument? or is this THE evolution argument?
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On December 08 2015 22:01 Rels wrote:
Man I had forgotten that DYH was scum.
Please vote DYH and let's lynch scum.
I hope that's enough to make you (yes, you, reading this) switch; read his filter and understand why.
Hints:
- what is his only strong read ? Did it start after a replacement of someone special to HTS ? Could scum know NM would push HTS regardless of NM's alignement ?
- how strong is his other reads compared to his main one ?
- what evolution his NM read take ?
- is he doing nothing while tons of people are townreading him and fighting each other ?
I want to make sure I am understand this correctly in relation to what you said on the last page.
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Okay, I read your argument again. You are making the argument their reads make them mafia by association.
Can you break down a position change that is not believable from DYH's realm with respect to his read on me? Can you break down a position or read change with respect to his read on anyone (aside from HTS)?
I am making this argument for Trfel thus I feel Trfel is more likely mafia than DYH.
I'm going to try and read on mobile one more time to make sure I'm not being dumb.
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You ninjaed me (1784). Let me try and follow that then.
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On December 09 2015 03:19 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:11 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH. How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it. What exactly do you mean with the "position change that he cannot possibly believe." His switch onto Rels just now? His last mention of Rels is this bit at the end of: Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 11:17 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote:
Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion.
Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to? I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other? I'm referring to nearly everyone. DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people.
My query to Rels is regarding DYH, not Trfel.
For my case on Trfel, I made a v long list of read progression late yesterday afternoon, and my main argument to sum it in one sentence was that he uses an argument to determine that moosy's slot was town and then throws in the bussing theory out of nowhere. typically you use supporting evidence before the bussing argument, not the other way around. the rest of trfel's case on me has been utter garbage based on circumstantial evidence.
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so I need to check and weigh two things when I get home. thinking this through.
(1) reads for townreading to bussing stance and then dropping suspicions
(2) timing of stances between suspicion of me.
I know I already looked from the point I replaced in.
I replaced in at 2300 even GMT
0140 (approx) I notice his post minutes before my intro and my comment on HTS later to which he responded. I didn't find anything suspicious at that time because I felt the method to look at kush's reads was normal but I might have been biased because I know how HTS plays her agenda based scumgame.
The amount of time to construct the case on HTS might come into play as well as whatever he said before my replacing in.
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ebwop - misstatement
(2) timing of stances between evolution and suspicion of HTS and how he weighed (if any) the bussing argument on me.
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I get home in about an hour but I really need a pc to sort that part out. This is v painful to do splitting between opera browser tabs and a mobile notepad.
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something came up, and I'm still not able to get to a pc, another 30 min
preferred lynch by far is trfel or ls, preferably trfel, dyh would be a serious compromise but I will not vote him without a filter dive and sorting through rels' concerns
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I'd vote LS but no one else wants to.
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I'm slodging through DYH filter now. I really don't know. I'm even trying to bring OGI knowledge of HTS' doings at home to see if there might be a possibility with the timestamps and even that information is inconclusive.
DYH wrote his case on HTS around 0630 or whatever. I was home before then, HTS was already asleep but I know she was definitely up well past EoD because she had made some food that night, and DYH comes with the first ping at 0140.
He's a damn coin flip based on the HTS case, looking at the read evolution on me...
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On December 09 2015 06:33 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 01:31 NocturneMage wrote:On December 08 2015 22:18 LightningStrike wrote:Why James aka Fidei86 is Mafia this game! 1. Past Experience: Granted I only played around 3 games total with James on mafia forum but I had played with him voice too and in both type of mafia games if my memory is right on this: He never tried to policy lynch anyone as town(Himalayas). On December 04 2015 22:17 Fidei86 wrote:
In terms of solving the game I think we need to focus on Alex/NM, Dani/HTS, LS and Trfel. I am convinced one or both of Alex/Dani is Mafia. I do not think LS is in any way cleared by EOD stuff (there was a big switch going on and he was actually already saved when he posted GG). I love LS, but I think even he would have to admit his play so far has been garbage. Trfel is all over the place, and several people have given reasons why he could be scum. His play style is v v different to anything I've come across before. THIS IS A BLANTANT LIE ABOUT THE BOLDED HE SAW I ACTED IN HIMALAYAS AND DRAMS PLUS SEASON OF THE WITCH 2 IN THOSE 3 GAMES I HAD A ROUGH DAY 1 START INTO THIS TYPE OF GAME. 2. His read progression: His reads were for the most part static. I can confirm he had very static reads in Season of the Witch 2 when he was scum. To illustrate his progression I will put all his read posts just bellow: + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Town
Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null
Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless
Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard"
Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post.
DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read.
Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised. That his first mega read post okay On December 04 2015 06:42 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:42 Rels wrote:On December 03 2015 07:14 LightningStrike wrote:
Okay DAMDRED IS A FUCKING IDIOT WHY FORGOT TO READ I ME BEEN BUT HE READ ME CORRECTLY ALL BUT THE TIME HE BEEN MAFIA.............
Dropping my vote on MD IDK HOME BUT I VT I DON'T TO DIE NOW.
##Vote:MooseyDoosey OK rsoultin read time: angry LS is town LS. Rels is probably town for this. Seems to call Rels on a NAI item for him. On December 04 2015 06:43 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:49 disformation wrote:
Hm, I don't know. I don't really feel the town vibe in his post. Like the capslock turn me off, I guess. Also had to read it twice to guess what his stance on Damdred is.
But I haven't played a game with LightningStrike. I think I shadowed HtS in a game where LightningStrike was gunsmith, but I don't remember/recall him being that emotional.
What gives me a bit of a pause is that now nearly everyone is voting for LS. -.- I think this probably makes disfo town as well. Again potental NAI stuff but from dis this time around even thought dis never played as scum before. On December 04 2015 06:55 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 08:18 The Shining wrote:
Trfel. You think LS is scum now. Especially after his comments regarding lynching Moosy after his flip, but saying he's just voting Moosy to save himself. But you just said NM replaced into a scumslot. Does this mean you think both lynches were scum before the shennany onto kush? Also this. 0.0 didn't think of this this way, but pretty sure TS is town now. See a pattern yet? He handing town reads like candy for reasons that could be replicated from both sides. Plus his read progression on me throughtout was mainly me being scum until earlier this day phase he said he would just policy me. Hint: he never policy lynch people to my knowledge as town. Then he went back to saying I'm scum with no content really changed in that time frame. 3. His HTS distancing: I'll let this post from dis pretty much speak for itself: On December 08 2015 05:30 disformation wrote:Sry, this will probably end up being a rant on Fidei86's filter.
Hm so while he was suspicious on HtS at the start he then moves to: On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Town
Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null
Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless
Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard"
Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post.
DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read.
Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised.
I have a bit of trouble following his LS progression after that. Like he thinks LS is scum and then votes kush because kush's progression on LS (who he thinks is scum) is scummy?
N1 he also moves back to HtS... On December 04 2015 08:39 Fidei86 wrote:
I'm not scum. One thing I was thinking is that I actually pinged Dani out a while ago for the same sort of thing Alex is saying now. That's not to say that scum can't bus a little ... Obviously I didn't push Dani that hard. But if Alex agreed with my reasoning, surely it makes me unlikely to be her scum buddy?
Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that. Bold part for smiles.  After that he talks a bit about a possible LS/HtS team. Seems a bit focused on certain persons. But he admitted to that earlier.
His probing of NM seems town.
On December 04 2015 23:43 Fidei86 wrote:
I am utterly convinced that LS is Mafia. I am willing to accept that Dani is Mafia, although if she flips town we lynch Alex (possibly before LS).
But I will have time this weekend to read some of the outliers (dis might lynch me if I don't at least read DYH again). On December 05 2015 00:20 Fidei86 wrote:
So LS, your scum team is me, DYH and Dani. Except scumming DYH is easy because he has been a low volume poster, scumming Dani is easy because Alex, and scumming me is easy because of OMGUS? All of your reasons for town reading people are "they are towny", or a call back to a past game.
This is a really poorly thought through list that shows no conviction and no intention to solve. LS is Mafia. Does he vote LS? + Show Spoiler +
On December 05 2015 00:25 Fidei86 wrote:On December 05 2015 00:23 LightningStrike wrote:
BTW James you should check my read progression of DYH? I will. I'll also read DYH's filter this evening. Work is slow today, so I've been able to play a lot of Mafia, but it's all phone posting. Still waiting.
On December 08 2015 00:40 Fidei86 wrote:
Gun to my head, on a pure gut read basis, I think the Mafia is likely 2 of LS, Disfo and NM. LS and NM I've discussed. Disfo is something I've been mulling for a while, and it's mostly because I feel all of his posts have tried to look useful but actually haven't been. (Filter dives to follow. I mean it this time). Not sure how "quite a while" translates to "my last mention of him is like super early D2 with a town read", but at least he is looking at more ppl than HtS,NM,LS and Trfel now.
So here we have a bunch of trees. Let mediate a bit on the forest though. Yes he was suspicious of HtS early on. Did he push her hard? No. He seemed very sure about LS being scum. Did he push him? No. Does he vote him? No. He is very focused on a small group on people. Maybe trying to pick one out of the misslynch list? The reads on those people are also kinda constant. Like the scum read on LS. Promised to look at DYH, did play dota instead. While I like his interactions with NM, interactions with other ppl seem to lack a bit. Did he actually push anyone so far? So I'd say his desire to solve the game doesn't seem to be very present. Possible vote candidate. The quote above pretty much showed he distanced himself from HTS after HTS had flipped scum. Conclusion: Pretty much LYNCH WITH FIRE BOYS! ##Vote:Fidei86 (1) no. that bolded sentence refers to Trfel, not you (2) terrible. you are meta reading him off one game. static reads in of themselves do not make someone mafia. static reads with changing circumstances might though someone mafia, excepting jusitification. Fidei is updating reads. this makes me very suspicious of you. kushm4sta even argued you were using shitty meta to make your pushes day 1. this is so wrong I really don't understand how this could possibly be coming from a town standpoint. (3) more parroting and like I said before not really adding anything of value to the game. why aren't you looking at his final two pages of filter? why are YOUR reads not changing? why is his activity from last night making him mafia? explain in terms of that. 1. shit I thought it was refering to me. Rip. 2. I always use meta as town for pushing. 3. I did look and what made me think he was scum was his townreading yet wants to policy lynch me like that is huge contradiction. My reads were changing just slowly you jackass.......
please don't go the trfel route, not going to help you
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actually that's not a fair statement, trfel tried to get under me, but I don't recall him swearing, back on topic.
in any case, relax.
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back end of dyh filter
I see he finally did make a conclusion on rels alignment, that was one of my prior reservations but it WAS way after the fact. not conclusive enough, def not over trfel.
continuing...
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On December 09 2015 03:16 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 03:11 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)
What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH. How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it. He mentioned that he kinda townread you; then he mentioned the NM busing theory makes some sense; then he drops it entirely.
continuing back end of filter. This is entirely true, now to check it in context.
two questions
(1) prioritisation of issues, not clear on how to pursue people - why trfel and fidei, disfo drop was fine because it was the same issue - they can't control what hts does and so they have to look at the interactions from both people.
(2) were some of these statements with thread sentiment, like to blend in?
checking context of thread. might even need to parse a scum game of his.
still really not sure this trumps trfel but damn me if I don't check shit first.
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Still reading folks....reading a couple other filters as well...
Still not seeing a reason to vote DYH over Trfel. Not yet.
Rels I'm not seeing an argument that is more alignment indicative. The whole HTS thing can go either way.
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On December 09 2015 07:13 Trfel wrote:
Change of assumptions.
I'm going to assume that even if I don't know why, the most active/vocal posters are town and mostly wrong.
And the mafia are casually standing by the side, watching and sometimes supporting, but letting others lead.
I think that this points at Fecalfeast. Thoughts?
The same thing applies to LS but he's just posting just to post and the case on Fidei was beyond awful.
I need to re-read his filter last game, can I do that in 40 minutes plus all this other shit....
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Disformation I feel at this time is more bad than mafia but I could be biased here because I'm just as inexperienced at this game as he is. Really not comfortable lynching him today.
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On December 09 2015 07:24 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 07:20 NocturneMage wrote:On December 09 2015 07:13 Trfel wrote:
Change of assumptions.
I'm going to assume that even if I don't know why, the most active/vocal posters are town and mostly wrong.
And the mafia are casually standing by the side, watching and sometimes supporting, but letting others lead.
I think that this points at Fecalfeast. Thoughts? The same thing applies to LS but he's just posting just to post and the case on Fidei was beyond awful. I need to re-read his filter last game, can I do that in 40 minutes plus all this other shit.... What makes the LS case any worse than disfos on dyh that was led off with a post made by rels?
LS has 5x the number of games played as disformation. He has a track record of pulling the same shit as mafia as town.
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EPT
