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On November 21 2015 01:35 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2015 01:27 NocturneMage wrote:
Damdred I'm not the most experienced player in the world, but I can see why you are saying everyone voting him makes you nervous.
I am more than happy to start a second legitimate wagon on Trfel to be quite honest. Problem is I think that we have two policy lynches, ie ever and Breshke. Someone who has acted crummy Breshke and ff to an extent. Trfel who is a hard line. And the worst thing is I think Trfel is town out of all this
Ever is honestly a coin flip. From her content alone, I had her as a scumlean but even if this was day 1 I wouldn't be screaming "she is mafia must lynch now" if there is a strategic reason as I asked before to go for a straight policy lynch then town need to fully agree on it
like I said before either go for a higher likeliness of scum (and I honestly would lynch Breshke over Trfel but if votes are scaring people then....) or go for the straight policy lynch because I have no bloody idea what the mods will do and I don't think we should be thinking about that anyhow.
like does anyone else other than Trfel have adequate reason to think at this stage of the game Breshke is town?
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like the day 2 interactions are scummy, and it's also an issue of when and how the timing of his play fell off, I discussed his latest scum reads in farah and disformation and why at the time, in context, why that team did not make sure... so not just that it fell off but the context in which it fell off.
now tbf it is stupid late in Aus though right now (1640 here, so past midnight at least over there) and if Breshke does pop on, though I'll be on mobile for next 2 hours I do want to ask him questions about where he is.
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On November 21 2015 01:42 Damdred wrote:
Let's say just for argument sake that Trfel and Breshke are scum together. I think it's possible but unlikely at this stage.
What's the play exactly? Everyone has basically piled onto Breshke but scum!Trfel instead of going for the town cred starts pushing on fecalfeast?
If Breshke flips scum where does that leave trfel?
I'll let you answer first before I keep going nm
well in newbie 13, you tagged me for being the last player to bus my scum teammate. I still remember that.
if scum Trfel were to just pile on late in ths game here, he'd be tagged for bussing, or at least he should be. he wouldn't be getting the credit. so he has to find some other reason to push someone else who he feels isn't doing anything.
if trfel piled on breshke, he gets no credit, and as I remember from 13 he will be suspected for bussing. I think he has to find a reason to push someone because he might just have no choice here.
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if you don't understand me I can pull the votes from that game, but I'm going to assume you are remembering what I talk about. you were the one who caught me out and you were screaming at the thread and no one was listening to you in 13.
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The last question is probably the best question there. I would have to take a look at his read on Moosy or if he even had one.
And disformation did he? I thought Trfel said he gives replacements a days pass?
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Why are you sure Shining is town?
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Wait wait wait Damdred.
Breshke voting Moosy you mean? That was NOT against thread sentiment! I traced the votes. Look at my post where I had the vote counter votes all lined up. Breshke was the last vote on Moosy before everyone started switching to Scott.
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Disformation he says Breshke's activity keeps getting worse but he doesn't say the interactions are getting worse (not lack of them but quality of them). He focuses on day 1 but not day 2. That is what I struggled with.
Also I am pretty sure Damdred's question was with respect to his vote day 1 not now and that Trfel quote is day 2?
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I want to come back to this.
On November 21 2015 01:52 Damdred wrote:
Now final question ans probable the best question.
Why does scum!Trfel push town!Scott over town!moosey when moosey was dead in thewater?
On November 18 2015 00:55 Trfel wrote:##vote scott31337I won't be able to catch up by the deadline. But scott31337 hasn't shown critical thinking, and his activity has been pretty awful. This post shows a lack of critical thinking in particular, he's trying to say stuff, trying to make an argument, but all he really says is that MoosyDoosy is town because he's town, and because he did the same thing last game as town (which obviously does not make him town). Scott31337 still hasn't taken a stance on me, despite saying that he would many hours ago. Given the lack of original reads and thinking in his posts, I find him getting so upset at MoosyDoosy's play difficult to believe.
On November 18 2015 01:05 Trfel wrote:
I don't want to lynch The Shining. He said that he was trying to do more work right when the game began to make up for not being able to play Monday and Tuesday, and his posting rate was much higher than it generally is. In addition to activity, his posts show attempts to gain information. Many of The Shining's scum games show fewer, larger posts to try and stay alive, rather than trying to pressure things to gain information.
FarahBlackwing's post about The Shining was very good, particularly with regards to The Shining's slight shows of emotion this game. It's very different from The Shining's most recent mafia game.
I could lynch MoosyDoosy, but I'm more confident in scott31337. MoosyDoosy is a wild card, scott31337 generally puts forward a good effort as town.
On November 18 2015 01:22 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2015 01:11 disformation wrote:
@Trfel I get your what you are saying on MoosyDoosy vs Scott and I could vote for both atm, but: as you said MoosyDoosy is a wildcard. How do you propose we handle him? I fear he will just continue to be a wildcard and at some point town has to deal with that. I guess, I feel like time will take care of MoosyDoosy a bit better than it will scott31337. Scott31337 will probably continue to play in about the same way, and I feel like his play to this point is very revealing already (more what's not there than what is).
MoosyDoosy's play certainly can't become any less helpful, as he's shown some investment to the game despite asking to be lynched. It's hard to explain my thoughts, maybe I'm just being insane, but I can't see him playing for a significant period of time while putting a bit of effort into the game and also asking to be lynched. And whatever change he makes from that balance would probably be telling.
This is from day 1. Does Trfel have THAT strong of a preference between either Scott or Moosy? Timing of votes, we know both wagons day 1 were town. From my tracker ordering.
Day 1
FarahBlackwing voted for shining <------start
disformation voted for scott31337
Eversince voted for Farahblackwing
VisceraEyes voted for Farahblackwing
FarahBlackwing unvoted
FarahBlackwing unvoted
MoosyDoosy voted for FarahBlackwing
VisceraEyes unvoted
VisceraEyes voted for Fecalfeast
NocturneMage voted for MoosyDoosy
scott31337 voted for Trfel
disformation unvoted
disformation voted for MoosyDoosy
NocturneMage voted for VisceraEyes
NocturneMage unvoted
NocturneMage voted for VisceraEyes
MoosyDoosy unvoted
MoosyDoosy voted for MoosyDoosy <---------effective start of Moosy wagon, 21 hours left
Trfel voted for MoosyDoosy <-------------- 20 hours, 45 min
Fecalfeast voted for mooseydoosey
Fecalfeast unvoted
Trfel unvoted
Fecalfeast voted for mooseydoosey <------------------ 19 hours 10 minutes
NocturneMage unvoted
scott31337 unvoted
ritoky voted for the shining <----------- 8 hours 30 minutes
disformation unvoted
disformation voted for The Shining <----------8 hours before deadline - I told him this was useless
disformation unvoted
disformation voted for MoosyDoosy <---------------- 7 hours prior to deadline
NocturneMage voted for MoosyDoosy
Breshke voted for MoosyDoosy <----------------- 5 hours 45 minutes prior to deadline - FIRST AND ONLY vote
Trfel voted for scott31337 <---------------------5 hours prior to deadline
FarahBlackwing voted for Scott31337
FarahBlackwing unvoted
FarahBlackwing voted for disinformation
scott31337 voted for Moosydoosy
geript voted for Breshke <----- 2 hours 30 minutes
FarahBlackwing unvoted
FarahBlackwing voted for Breshke <--------- 2 hours 10 minutes
disformation unvoted
disformation voted for Breshke <------------ 1 hour 30 minutes
FarahBlackwing unvoted
FarahBlackwing voted for Scott31337 <------------ 12 minutes left
Fecalfeast voted for scott31337 <------------ 10 minutes left
disformation unvoted
disformation voted for Scott31337 <--------7 minutes left
ritoky unvoted
ritoky voted for scott31337 <------------1 minute left
The Shining voted for Scott31337
NocturneMage voted for scott31337 <-------deadline, my vote was right on at 2000
ritoky unvoted
ritoky voted for moosydoosy
Trfel's vote on scott31337 was five hours prior to lynch.
Probably need to see when he started pushing scott relative to the votes on moosy because scott was an easier person to push based on the lack of activity. When both wagons are town (and I am assuming Moosy's claim is true) scum can't be so obvious in not caring about the lynch, but Trfel came up with a decent reason to take scott over moosy from these quotes. Hmmmm.
Same double standard question folks - why does he make the assumption taht Moosy's play could change or will become more clear, ignoring the claim and scott's won't become clear? why only bring up "lurky" fecalfeast now and not day 1?
"scott's play is already revealing"
so why not fecalfeast? shining was obvious from schedule at the time so I'll skip him,
but again I ask, why the double standard?
does anyone remotely think he sounds like he cares about who is getting lynched?
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ebwop - and when I say "decent" I do not mean decent as in towny reason but it was believable enough.
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right now? no. next cycle is mylo assuming no modkill.
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morning? wow, where in canada do you live? it's almost 6pm here lol.
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the more I look through, I really think trfel is the one fooling enough of us. I really do. His answers are just towny enough to escape maximum scrutiny. I understand the whole "the hard defence" doesn't make sense aspect but there are so many things wrong with his line of play. he won't fight the breshke lynch, he doesn't need to, breshke isn't the roleblocker but it's not as big a deal in the current known setup admittedly, or he cannot.
scott versus moosydoosy, was he really convinced? look at that reply. and that case on scott, why couldn't he have made the same assumption about say fecalfeast? the same explanation could have been given for moosy from a different angle. shining and ever at the time I understand for the lapse in activity day 1 a reasonable assumption can be drawn there as to why to ignore them, everyone did or nearly everyone.
this really doesn't feel right. breshke to lynch for sure, but if trfel isn't number 2 then I don't know what the bloody hell he's doing.
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I can completely understand lynching Breshke over Trfel, the former is clearly more scummy over the latter. but I think we are ignoring trfel for the wrong reasons in general.
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and if need be I will switch my vote back to Breshke, I will be having my phone on me between now and end of cycle anyhow.
and that setup reason, I realise it's not definitive, it's a possibility and depending on what breshke flips if he flips, that could provide some definition for finding the second mafia.
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at some point I'll need to actually look into ritoky just to make sure he's not the one fooling us either but right now I can't see why....
also disformation or whoever said that moosydoosy or damdred would chance eversince never returning and fakeclaiming....that's sort of on the lines not playing to moderator actions as either alignment. we don't know what the mods will do, or at least I don't. lets say the moderators modkill eversince and she flips vigilante....
....well then, that blows scumteam strategy out of the water.
let's say they replace her and the replacement claims first thing.
same problem for mafia.
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although in the latter scenario if such a thing were to happen it could get interesting but in the first scenario regardless of whether ever returns they would be outed. still back to the point, don't consider moderators.
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alright so I'm seeing a 5 votes for breshke (disformation, damdred, ff, shining, ritoky), 2 on trfel (md, me), 1 on ff (trfel)
with breshke and eversince abstaining. 80 minutes until deadline.
need to make dinner.
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it might have been easier to blend in. from my own recollection, I remember ritoky and myself not buying into it. From looking at the vote tracker, Breshke had at most 3 votes.
Also look at geript's last post when he voted Breshke. He rated moosy pretty highly from before.
On November 18 2015 02:24 geript wrote:
A few things.
Moosey 5.5/7--I think Moosy might be town. It's kinda impossible to tell, but I liked his Farah read. I don't think the read is good, but Moosy tends (as town) to be staunch on some really out there read that no one else sees. Yes, he does the same thing as scum. Yes, IMO he'll do anything he'd do as town as scum including acting like an ass. I don't have a super strong read on him that I can make a town case on him, but I feel about as strong about the read on him as I did in the last game (where I was tracker and was trying to decouple him and scumdred). The thing that really makes me think he's town isn't just his outburst around the Farah thing; more importantly it's how he comes back to it later on. The bounce back on was really, really towny I think. It's this, "I want to fuck people over and I don't want to fuck people over" dissonance that I don't think he can really fake as mafia.
Scott 4.5/7--He's still null-ish. This seems kinda funny, but I don't really get the sense that anyone is trying to shield or direct votes towards him. Trfel iirc was the first to sorta toss a vote his way and it didn't seem bussy for cred or protecty for Moosy. It feels a bit TvT on the lynch and his catching up post about ~p30 (or around that area) kinda had similar thoughts to where I thought I was when I was catching up.
Shining 5.5/7--I could be wrong on him; it's not just the fact that he's quoting in every post or thereabouts. He's no over explainy which he does as mafia. He's not really disconnected from the thread. He's had a good thought or two. Meta fits which is enough for now.
##Vote: Breshke--Breshke has 2 posts that I semi-like. The problem being that they say things that are easy to say and don't really add anything. The problem that I have with Breshke is that when he's town his posts bounce off the thread and interact with the thread. By this, I don't mean Breshke asks things to people and stuff. Rather, he'll see a thought or something in the thread that spurns a new thought, a new direction. It's as if he reads something and it gets put together with something else to form something slightly old mixed with something new. There's also the fact that in general, he's asking far more isolated questions of people than I remember him doing; especially when he drops them as if he doesn't care about them.
In either case he would hae been goign against geript and he was saving Breshke either way.
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I'm trying to see if I'm misunderstanding.
On November 21 2015 03:58 Damdred wrote:
Here's the thing, when you have two town up for lynch and you know the setup why push town Scott when it's highly likely in that situation that Breshke or Scott dies?
Now let's say momentum is going directly onto Breshke because of geript.
By the posts own admission Trfel thinks moosey is the second likely scum but wants Scott first.
Why hard defend Breshke against geript and push town Scott more when its just as good to say both Scott and moosey are town I'll help hammer moosey and I can get afk Scott tommorow?
It makes less sense of scum to do than you thunk. This makes him less likely scum, unless you think that Breshke would be lynched and Trfel was trying to save him,no matter what and wanting to go against town geript to bring more ! negative attention.
if you're asking whether scum Trfel would try to avoid negative attention as scum, my counter to that with the previous quote was that either way he has to go against geript, so that doesn't help him one way or another unless I'm misunderstanding your question.
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EPT
