EPTNewbie Student Mafia XVII: Fullmetal Edition - Page 8
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Part 1 of 3: Trfel's expectation on Scott posted previously - link below with previous questions part 1: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/497023-newbie-student-mafia-xvii-fullmetal-edition?page=60#1198 geript's initial callout: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/497023-newbie-student-mafia-xvii-fullmetal-edition?page=60#1195 Part 2 of 3: Trfel's case on VisceraEyes - misinformed or malicious Trfel - 18 games, 3 as scum, 1 as third party VisceraEyes - 80 games (holy fuck mate you are an addict), 18 as scum, 5 as third party next step - games where trfel and viscera overlap (1) TL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy (2) Aperture 4: This Time It's Personal (3) Assassination Mafia (4) Tropical Storm Mini Mafia - Trfel was mafia (5) Gaiden 2 - Trfel was mason, VE was mafia now, tbf, only problem here, case wasn't based on meta. ritoky and geript both had ve as town. at least one of them said ve isn't the most towny player in the world. did trfel take advantage of that? should he have known better that ve isn't a towny player? 5 games with VE, 4 of those with the relevant alignment for VE. should he have known better than to jump on VE? 5 games is a decent chock of experience. Gut reaction, I'm going to say yes here. questions for veterans (1) does VE as town get mislynched a lot? (2) is he a common target for mafia players to push? (3) based on what ritoky/geript said earlier my initial guess is yes. but if you have more information, it would help me a lot here as a newb if nothing else, the data is conclusive that VE is a mafia addict. someone get him a referral to mafiaholics counselling centre please.  but right now? if meta expectations hold and given that trfel has used meta at least once on geript this game (that post where he said "geript should know X" remember that?)....it's not looking good for trfel. part 3 of 3: Trfel's defence of Breshke - does it make sense? Trfel - 18 games, 3 as scum, 1 as third party Breshke - 20 games, 2 as scum next step - games where trfel and breshke were scum and town Trfel was not present in games where Breshke was scum. Games present together where Breshke was town (1) Student Mafia IV (2) TL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy (3) Noir Mini Mafia (4) Newbie Student Mafia VII (5) TL Mafia LXXI: Gaiden 5 games with Breshke when Breshke was town. That's enough information I feel to realise that Breshke if town here, could be falling below town expectations. MAFIA PLAY/AGENDA ALERT - he implicated that for scott for a scum meta, so the data is here, why not for Breshke? he said "geript should know X", why not "Breshke should do X"???? so at the very least geript's statement regarding misrepresentation of of Breshke's reads could be valid. Overall Conclusion: I think between the numbers alone on here, likely meta expectations, his casing of VE to be incorrect (with possible mafia expectations versus what he should know already on VE), his push on geript based on "geript should know X", if Farah/Damdred is vet and the proceedings against, or as others have put it trying to push an uncounterclaimed blue, NK/WIFOM analysis if geript was the nightkill, there's a better than decent chance Trfel is scum. [/b] like I'm not doing bloody meta reads folks. I'm trying to answer objective questions on expectations because geript threw meta expectations out. his alignment and the database game numbers support this. I hope you understand me. If not I can break it down another way. unless the database is fucked you can't argue with these. questions? comments? I think we have a Trfel/Breshke/+1 mafia team. I think someone is looking enough town just enough to fool us, and I think it might be Trfel. next steps - did Trfel and Breshke interact with each other in thread? | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
I want every person to comment on post 1203. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
the issue is that trfel could be working on a mafia agenda which I want people to discuss, I have a second post coming up. the big question is why he prioritised scott over breshke. it's a double standard. he takes one game to explain that breshke doesn't have a towny game which I can agree with. but scott has 11 games as town, 7 games where he's mislynched and 3 of those games mislynched as day 1. IDK. you don't have to read filters to understand that scott doesn't have a towny game either. the thing is scum play to survive. I realise why trfel said breshke has a towny followup, but was it really scum like for geript saving scott when he had the justification to do so? (or was it understandable in his own view for trfel to say that geript was scummy for trying to save scott?) | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On November 20 2015 02:41 disformation wrote: The link to geripts initial callout leads to another of your posts? And while we are at it: what is the so-called WIFOM/NK analysis? Can you explain, or at least post a link? geript's original posts were quoted in my post. If you want to see geript's original post it's post 918 and 925, it's quoted inside what I posted. the wifom/nk analysis I refer to is from newbie 14 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/493411-newbie-student-mafia-xiv-firefly?page=176#3506 specifically: On September 22 2015 09:06 rsoultin wrote: As a sidenote, HTS is right about the Slam NK (fidei, this is for you). It doesn't make much sense for anyone to NK slam, however it makes much less sense for either Slam or scott to NK one another and then try to convince one of the most townread to lynch one of the other most townread over them. Simply put, they are very unlikely to do that as it makes it almost impossible for them to win. The WIFOM isn't worth the struggle. That NK meant someone in a stronger position: you or Moosy. The way Moosy started D6 with his constantly changing story and endless missteps also might have been a clue. But he played well and you shouldn't feel bad for missing this. Another thing to note...there were times where Moosy did something I've seen recently from scum!ruxxar as well...namely scumreading someone by lecturing them on how a good townie should play. It's an odd mindset for town to have. Town usually says "I think x is scum for y, and if they're town they're awful for doing this." It was reversed for the newbie scum. "Good town should do x and since you didn't I think you're scum." <- see the difference in the mindset? what this basically means is that geript was pushing Breshke and Trfel and will make it hard for them to win if they are scum. yes it's wifom, no it's not fully definitive but it's something to consider. Yeah, he was wrong on VE. But I have 0 clue as to how to figure out if he should have known better or not. You could play 100 games with sicklucker and still don't know how to read him.  I have like 0 experience with VE, so I have no clue how hard/easy he is to read. this is why I asked the questions I did for the veterans. scott has already demonstrated one case of where trfel can put a case together and get people lynched. so it's a caveat in his play. Can you link that for me? I went through trfel's filter with a Strg+F on "geript" but wasn't able to find that. Wasn't he saying scott should now better about geript and that makes scott mafia? On November 18 2015 04:21 Trfel wrote: Wait, what the heck? This push onto Breshke is so mafia-motivated. I don't trust geript at all here. Look at scott31337's townread of geript. He just says that geript is a top town. Notice that he repeatedly says "Trfel could be scum or he could be town" in response to me solving the game and pushing my ideas. He never describes any difference between me and geript, just uses the fact that I had one good game as scum to avoid townreading me. But geript is better than me at mafia, by far, and scott31337 knows this. It's impossible for him not to know that geript is extremely skilled as mafia. So now geript comes up with this push out of nowhere to prevent scott31337 from being lynched? I don't like this one bit. That came from the geript is better than me at mafia, but even then this is a double standard because he's using a fear read (basically fearing geript as mafia) and holding scott to that standard and then using the same sentence to say that scott, in fearing trfel as mafia was unreasonable to do so. "scott should have known X" is still just as bad. the problem is, is that he's cherry picking because scott saw a townread in VE from geript that also resonated with him. the problem is that Trfel is saying "scott should have known" which isn't necessarily a reasonable assumption. from this scott at least took into consideration geript was possibly running mafia play: On November 17 2015 00:47 scott31337 wrote: I'm here and catching up From the games I've observed of VE - this is fairly spot on - He also shows a lot more emotion/caps/etc as town. From geript's first message I thought it could be a pocket, but I'm going to slight townlean/not lynching on both of them for now. I've read Trfel's "case" twice and I'm still not seeing it - I'm really not sure what to make of this - and it was coincidentally after geript's "do something or you die post".... mmm I'll see if this is explained more farther down in the thread. I'm not off then. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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to be fair people didn't have appropriate responses to him and even I asked geript to separate bad Trfel from mafia Trfel. when you add that up with his willingness to lynch farah - there was a point where I stopped myself as much as it pissed me off because mechanically we can afford to wait one cycle and then resolve, he still insisted on lynching her instead of finding the other two mafia, it makes me quite nervous. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
but if we decide eversince could be vig, then go with breshke for the lynch. need to grab dinner. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On November 19 2015 08:00 The Shining wrote: Disfo you get half a town point just for being the only one to mention that post tbh. I'm not gonna quote it and stretch the thread out but this is in response to 1072. First point. Right I dont want to but I did anyway cuz I felt it necessary to point out. Yolo. And considering ES was one of the only players I had directly interacted with, it would make sense that she was the read I was most sure of. No I didn't miss that post and I won't go into wifom territory on whether scum ritoky would do that or not. The point I was trying to make is that he himself claimed he tried to get a switch. But he can't really say he did that when that Scott post and his switch were all at the last possible minute. It just looked like he said that to make himself look good. Skipping the fair enough. I agree with you there. But if Moosy is in fact town, then I'm more inclined to think the early voters that never moved are more likely scum than the vote switchers. Like if town is getting lynched regardless, scum has no motivation to move back and forth a bunch of times. So you think Farrah is scum then? I believe someone asked you before to show when and where your null read on her became scum. Can you do that now? What do you think of her blue claim? Yeah I'll get around to Trfel soon. I dislike ritoky for seeing what I see in ES then scumming me and asking why anyone TRs me for it. And misrepresenting himself as someone who tried to get ppl off Scott when there wasn't enough time for that to even happen. And I was finding him suspicious enough to revisit my townread on him. I'm not saying he's a full blown scumread but I do have question marks now. not sure if above is fully true, trying to grasp wagons and thread sentiment is hard...tried to map timing of votes to the tracker below.... to note assuming all claims are true: On November 18 2015 05:00 Tictock wrote: Day 1 Final Votecount scott31337 (6): MoosyDoosy (4): FarahBlackwing (1): Eversince, Fecalfeast (1): VisceraEyes Breshke (1): geript, The Shining (0): Trfel (0): VisceraEyes (0): mooseydoosey (0): disinformation (0): copied from tracker if we can ferret thread sentiment votes. not sure though. Day 1 FarahBlackwing voted for shining <------start disformation voted for scott31337 Eversince voted for Farahblackwing VisceraEyes voted for Farahblackwing FarahBlackwing unvoted FarahBlackwing unvoted MoosyDoosy voted for FarahBlackwing VisceraEyes unvoted VisceraEyes voted for Fecalfeast NocturneMage voted for MoosyDoosy scott31337 voted for Trfel disformation unvoted disformation voted for MoosyDoosy NocturneMage voted for VisceraEyes NocturneMage unvoted NocturneMage voted for VisceraEyes MoosyDoosy unvoted MoosyDoosy voted for MoosyDoosy <---------effective start of Moosy wagon, 21 hours left Trfel voted for MoosyDoosy <-------------- 20 hours, 45 min Fecalfeast voted for mooseydoosey Fecalfeast unvoted Trfel unvoted Fecalfeast voted for mooseydoosey <------------------ 19 hours 10 minutes NocturneMage unvoted scott31337 unvoted ritoky voted for the shining <----------- 8 hours 30 minutes disformation unvoted disformation voted for The Shining <----------8 hours before deadline - I told him this was useless disformation unvoted disformation voted for MoosyDoosy <---------------- 7 hours prior to deadline NocturneMage voted for MoosyDoosy Breshke voted for MoosyDoosy <----------------- 5 hours 45 minutes prior to deadline - FIRST AND ONLY vote Trfel voted for scott31337 <---------------------5 hours prior to deadline FarahBlackwing voted for Scott31337 FarahBlackwing unvoted FarahBlackwing voted for disinformation scott31337 voted for Moosydoosy geript voted for Breshke <----- 2 hours 30 minutes FarahBlackwing unvoted FarahBlackwing voted for Breshke <--------- 2 hours 10 minutes disformation unvoted disformation voted for Breshke <------------ 1 hour 30 minutes FarahBlackwing unvoted FarahBlackwing voted for Scott31337 <------------ 12 minutes left Fecalfeast voted for scott31337 <------------ 10 minutes left disformation unvoted disformation voted for Scott31337 <--------7 minutes left ritoky unvoted ritoky voted for scott31337 <------------1 minute left The Shining voted for Scott31337 NocturneMage voted for scott31337 <-------deadline, my vote was right on at 2000 ritoky unvoted ritoky voted for moosydoosy Trfel's vote on scott31337 was five hours prior to lynch. Shining's reads are back and forth on ritoky but I'm hoping there's some pickup today because I'm not terribly sure where he stands on people now. Last page of filter not saying much. Did Breshke have an actual "good" reason to vote Moosy? curious. the vote counter map....well we know Breshke voted early but previously discussed timezones could have fucked him over, but reason for Moosy at the time was.....? Fecalfeast COULD be problematic....18 hours between first and final vote. ritoky voted shining early but read was supported and went to bed, probably not mafia based on this. Eversince isolated vote....no idea. I'd say of all these votes, Trfel, Fecalfeast and Breshke look the worst based on timing of votes, reads I'd have to double check the latter two but.... Breshke's timing of the vote is NAI based on timezone but it was his first and only vote (the fact he didn't vote ve as he was pushing) but I don't recall the reason to take out moosy as being that great. | ||
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NocturneMage
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long gap between the Fecalfast votes. Breshke also voted when the votes were pretty piled up on MoosyDoosy, that also looks pretty bad for him I think. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Another night at work in an hour so I'm out. Will lie in after that, some time in the afternoon I think and then I will be around for about 2 hours through end of cycle. | ||
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On November 20 2015 14:11 MoosyDoosy wrote: No, he makes a good point. You're pointing fingers at basically everyone EXCEPT for Breshke which is highly suspicious. I tried to outline this agenda earlier but he said the reasons were crappy. It's not his arguments I have a problem with, it's his agenda. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On November 21 2015 00:38 Trfel wrote: The question about all I'm doing is defending Breshke? All I'm doing is trying to lynch scum. All I've done is try to lynch scum. If people are going to be stupid and lynch someone for no reason instead of scum, then I'll tell them why their reasons are stupid. Trfel my biggest issue with you is you aren't considering why people's reasons are changing. (1) Breshke's posting not since 24 hours - I have been told in the past that scum tend to fall off. In theory when lynch options close off it gets harder for them to come up with scumreads (2) Play has not been consistent and you've been treating it as if it has been consistent. Namely I thought his play day 1 was towny, and the pushes that we described for day 1 are lacking for day 2 and the particulars of his engagement day 2 are more scummy than they were day 1. It isn't "towny enough" or whatever descriptors you use for day 2. (3) There are 1-2 observations in the voting analysis that don't make Breshke (and possibly others) look very good either. For starters, he only voted once - why didn't he take a stand or a vote earlier? Why not VE? Why not whoever he was pushing earlier? Like why aren't you asking those questions? And these are pretty damn good reasons to lynch him. The issue with you "pushing scum" is that if you are mafia - and this is what I was taught in my mafia game newbie 13 - you can just get in a mindset enough (I think that is how glowbing bear put it) to be towny. From the database you have had enough experience as scum to at least realise this. Like right now you are talking around Fecalfeast. I will ask you the same thing I asked VE earlier this game.... Why didn't you just directly query him if you had issues with him? I am pretty sure you two were in the thread at the same time. Like your approach to Fecalfeast, I think he even responded something like "congrats you made a case on town" and you didn't even bother to ask him about his reads. The other thing is that you are framing that case without considering any possible towny behaviour. Like I said earlier he's being obvious about being lazy and doesn't seem to give much of a shit and unless there's a meta that this game is screaming about Fecalfeast like it was done VE, and for him it doesn't appear to be the case, then at least you have to consider that his not giving a shit from time to time would go against scum play. Obviously there's a PoE factor that comes into play and if he's still alive in mylo or whatever then it can be another story. But do you really think he's highest likeliness to be scum? But now? I'm not buying your line of play. | ||
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NocturneMage
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I am more than happy to start a second legitimate wagon on Trfel to be quite honest. | ||
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On November 20 2015 07:27 ritoky wrote: 3) I don't think trfel and breshke are together and I think trfel is mafia. I say this primarily because of setup. It is a set-up with only a 50% chance of having investigative power and a guaranteed GF. This means that distancing and busing are more optimal than hard defense and aligning; and trfel has been REALLY defending breshke (like since p1 of his filter defending) pretty much all game. I think both trfel and breshke are good enough players to recognize that about the setup and I sincerely doubt that trfel hard defends his partner so early. Probably a case of mafia trying to pocket town. imo lynch pool right now should be something like: trfel - reasons above ever - already said why ff - hasn't shit town rainbow yet, disengaged shining - same as before + extra dropoff + not scum hunting. no I don't think this makes you mafia, but I do not understand the setup speculation and the correspondence to mafia strategy that you are explaining here. don't scum team already know the setup? I think Trfel and Breshke are mafia for separate reasons. Shining's voting (when and how) is somewhat suspicious as I previously posted but I need to look at bit closer at what he's posting, because when you are posting so infrequently it's hard to tell if he's rolling with thread sentiment or.... | ||
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NocturneMage
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##unvote ##vote Trfel I am pretty sure they are both mafia, we have a claimed veteran right? I wonder if scum might have a stake however small to protect their roleblocker so they can off the veteran in one shot? especially for someone so towny like Damdred in the most likely scenario that Farah's claim was true. | ||
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