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Newbie Student Mafia XVII: Fullmetal Edition - Page 7

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 18 2015 23:39 GMT
#1122
On November 19 2015 08:33 Fecalfeast wrote:
Ritoky is correct. Even if the claim feels like buttcheeks it's still uncc'd


The only other thing I can think of is wait one cycle and if she is still alive lynch her.

I don't understand how or why she isn't moving forward in her world view.

Anyways looking at other people in the meantime since we don't win until all three are dead.

##unvote

fuck this is irritating.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 18 2015 23:47 GMT
#1132
On November 19 2015 08:39 Fecalfeast wrote:
1. Unless someone claims a vig shot on Geript, he was the only one adamant about trfel being scum and was getting upset that nobody listened to him.

2. His day 1 suspicions from his filter: VE, Moose, Scott, Me. I know 3/4 of those are town 100% while moose is showing some towny play since yesterday.

3. Totally willing to vote an uncc'd blue because she's martyring.



you realise that #1 and most of #2 also apply to Breshke right? A thought to consider if Trfel is town.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 00:58 GMT
#1144
Farah, I'm going to say this. when you are getting tunnelled or scumread or whatever you want to call it, I was advised you find scum. If you honestly felt there was a valid point to figuring out what Fecalfeast's role was - and he claimed he wasn't vig - you would have moved forward by saying

"alright, Fecalfeast isn't vig, he could be scum because of X," or "if fecalfast is town and if some person Y is vig" then I'm down to this method, etc.

even in your world you aren't moving town forward

also post 1129, Trfel is using the word malicious as in mafia agenda. Not that you were insulting, but your play is mafia play.

now I have time to sit down, I will look into eversince, and do the best I can here. at least before 2am.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 01:11 GMT
#1146
On November 19 2015 09:48 disformation wrote:
Currently my official read on her is:
wtf bananaboat.
Which is like 3rd party, but slightly tastier and floating on water.
Or rather uncced vet with plays that make no sense for either town nor scum. But I might look at it again, if I am able to figure out what the correct bait for a wtf bananaboat is.


as glowingbear told me in my newbie 13 game, scum play to survive. even if we go through a cycle, say we fuck up again and mislynch, night phase passes and she's not taken out, if she gets one mislynch out of that, she's gotten her team closer to victory. 2 mislynches left in that scenario.

alright now eversince.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 01:31 GMT
#1151
also disformation....

from newbie 13, I was caught out as mafia on voting analysis. I am decently sure the way moosy's been playing he is probably town now. If that's the case, when both wagons are town, there's a decent shot to look at people who didn't give a shit about the lynch or who got lynched or for players that can hide it well, who had a "fake" reaction to try and get one player lynched over another or a bad reason given read progression.

now farah's been cited for this, but who else would this apply?

there were some isolated voters obviously and those people will always come into question but two of these are known town now.

and eversince, who knows.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 01:39 GMT
#1154
On November 19 2015 10:21 disformation wrote:
leaving Breshke:
he did vote MD around 5h15 b4 deadline and went to bed.
If I look at my huge ass post again (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/497023-newbie-student-mafia-xvii-fullmetal-edition?page=48#948), that starts considering votes from 7h before deadline to deadline, I think this can still be considered early. Next post from Breshke is well into N1.

I also don't think that all the mafia are on the scott train.


Breshke is Australian so timing might be NAI as he might not have had a choice. I'd focus more on the reasoning and not so much the timing.

deadline for me is 8pm. aus has 3 timezones, anywhere from 8-10 hours ahead of me. that would put his deadline at anywhere from 4-6am.

I don't know about you but if I was a student (which he said pre-game) and had day classes I highly doubt he could stay up until "close enough" to end of cycle.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 01:40 GMT
#1155
like there are a few reasons as it stands that Breshke could be scum, but timing of votes isn't a great one.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 01:44 GMT
#1158
On November 19 2015 10:37 Trfel wrote:
How did you arrive at FarahBlackwing being town?


I think I know why he said that but I'll let him explain.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 01:45 GMT
#1159
ninjaed and ROFLMAO at the Farah/Moosy team theory.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 02:00 GMT
#1161
Eversince analysis from posts 253-345

post 253 - I didn't take this seriously. thought she was just trying to bullshit and say stuff as an opening salve.

Now as Shining and VE and such are going on page 14, she isn't posting. Could be health, could be lying low.

284 - saw nothing wrong with this post, could be interpreted as poking a hole into the arguement.

293 - responded regarding health, in of itself NAI

308 -

On November 16 2015 06:21 Eversince wrote:
I mentioned in my earlier post, Viscera is null. He sheeped a random vote I made an hour into this game. If he does squat else followin', I'll take issue. Right now I've already mentioned that, while currently not useful, his post don't seem to push him either way.

I haven't,and won't until I get a much better base on people, use meta. I do assume that a WHOLE BUNCH of people do. I've read a number of games on this site. I don't understand everything, but under the assumption that I found him in a few old games on the Team Liquid database, he is one who uses meta.

On those standards, he's not done anything to make him tilt scales. Time will tell...


strange read on VE not taking a side on his tone, could be trying to avoid confrontation? not sure, but he was town and it's not like she pushed him either. quips about meta are not alignment indicative, typical newbie saying fuck the majority.

312 - nothing really relevant to this game if I read it right, same concern I had as breshke earlier, not really commenting on anything relevant to the game as it goes on.

322 and 328 - I could see this as either alignment
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 02:02 GMT
#1162
Rest of filter is a bit hyperfocusing on Shining. Just overall meh from that point.

I'd give an overall scumlean, but very well could be wrong here.

back to work.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 14:19 GMT
#1188
I think if I had to lynch anyone and avoid the policy lynch (which it basically what it is) on Eversince, I would go for Breshke.

Compared to Trfel, he seems less towny although I couldn't initially grasp from ritoky as for why he'd lynch Trfel over Breshke aside from him wanting to lynch Farah whose claim was scummy when it was made. I could understand Fecalfeast's vote on him for that reason although I mentioned that Breshke, the same thing mostly applies except the claim analysis.

geript tried to get Breshke lynched d1 and now that we know geript is town and considering his type of read and my initial reservation on Breshke (talking around geript/VE), and geripts history of 30 games, I'm going to assume the meta read is more or less accurate or at the very least we know it was an honest thought from him.

not to mention scum really fall off late game, and Breshke's last post irrespective of timezone was....

....16 hours ago....

I'm looking at Breshke's posts from 1009 and onwards. He's saying disformation and farah are both scum. But they are both scumreading each other. Learnt the hard way from newbie 14 that there was some double bussing going on. there's no explaiantion from Breshke as to why he thinks they are on after each other and disformation has since been a bit more towny.

If Farah's claim was true, and without a counterclaim, we have to proceed as if it is true, it was a poor decision, but at least Damdred has a strategy/conditions for when/if/how the vig should claim. I understand it.

and this go? Breshke's pushes are a LOT weaker than round 1. he's not as invested in either of them.

I think what trfel said is valid, let the moderators deal with Eversince and lynch Breshke unless there is a mechanical reason we have to deal with her now. (do we know if mods modkill or replace or does that even matter? no idea how that shit works.)
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 14:29 GMT
#1190
On October 21 2015 18:06 Tictock wrote:
Activity:
You must make at least Five posts in this thread per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. Roughly speaking, this equates to a bare minimum of one post per 10 hours. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled or replaced.

Replacements
This game uses replacements. Players who are inactive may be replaced by other players.


well this isn't terribly clear.

10 players left, 7 of which are town

7:3 - what we have now
6:3 - mislynch
5:3 - possible modkill (???)
4:3 - nightkill

Well fuck this. I'd like to lynch Breshke but we might actually have to go for the policy lynch if I'm counting this right. There is one replacement though, but I can't predict what the mods are going to do based on the rules so if someone more experienced can suggest the way to go here or what they normally do that might help tremendously.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 14:31 GMT
#1191
I would avoid a full PoE team when we are one mislynch outside of mylo with a possible modkill. unless I am strategically off target, either go for the highest percentage of scum or go for the policy lynch.

as for geript, to be honest....he was town but he could be wrong on people. the reason I suggested his read on Breshke was good is because Breshke's behaviour currently supports what he stated day 1 and it matched my initial concern on Breshke (avoiding the important issues).
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 14:32 GMT
#1192
ebwop: unless I am strategically off target, either go for the highest percentage likeliness of scum or go for the policy lynch.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 14:47 GMT
#1195
On November 19 2015 22:44 Damdred wrote:
Basically thinking would scum trfel get butt hurt the game really didn't listen to him about Scott and partially throw a small tantrum to get people on Scott?

Tgere is unflippwd association as breshke being scum heavily implies trfel is as well.

Also its worth thinking about where is the waffle in truffles play? Hard to say he's been really sure about everything all game.

I'm hoping he's the big trying to make a play


Trfel could be mafia based on the so-called WIFOM/NK analysis that rsoultin discussed in newbie 14. But how is there an associative read between Breshke and Trfel? or do you simply mean the fact Trfel's lynching Scott saved Breshke? your first sentence implies that Trfel was being too emotional to be scum, but if there is another post after the lynch that indicates Trfel by association, where is it?

nothing has jumped out at me other than the push on Scott, but geript implied (by meta, which again I disregarded because well....it was meta) that Trfel should have known better - he used his town meta to indicate this as Scott's scum meta to get him lynched.

Are you experienced enough to make this call? the post in question was post 918 and 925

On November 18 2015 14:39 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 18 2015 04:23 Trfel wrote:
On November 18 2015 02:24 geript wrote:
Scott 4.5/7--He's still null-ish. This seems kinda funny, but I don't really get the sense that anyone is trying to shield or direct votes towards him. Trfel iirc was the first to sorta toss a vote his way and it didn't seem bussy for cred or protecty for Moosy. It feels a bit TvT on the lynch and his catching up post about ~p30 (or around that area) kinda had similar thoughts to where I thought I was when I was catching up.
Look at geript's read on scott31337. It's all association, there is no response to the actual case on him. Geript is avoiding defending scott31337's play, because he knows that it can't be done.

All association? No. I quite frankly referred to this post + Show Spoiler +
On November 17 2015 14:42 scott31337 wrote:
I apologize for my last post - I got enough energy to notepad. I'm town.

Show nested quote +
On November 17 2015 09:19 Trfel wrote:
On November 17 2015 09:17 FarahBlackwing wrote:
Because he did something similar to this last game we played as town, and from what I understand have been informed on he tries a bit harder as scum doesn't roll over.
The problem is that he knows this, and he knows that people will say this......

Ugh, this is so frustrating.


Weak.

Show nested quote +
On November 17 2015 09:25 Breshke wrote:
On November 17 2015 09:16 Trfel wrote:
Breshke, who are your scumreads right now?

If you'd like to wait for FarahBlackwing to answer first, that's fine.


It's mostly less active people.

Something is wrong about mooseys outburst like he HAS rolled scum here before he makes it sound like he never has. He also entered a game where its more likely to roll town than mafia and is having a tantrum that he got the more likely option. Also in the game he was mafia he overreacted to rayn dying (not being saved by the doctor) which was obviously fake and this feels a lot like that. So i don't think anyone should be giving him a pass for having a cry.

FF still being lazy so would lynch.

Scott aswell. I don't think it is out of the ordinary for scott to not be around for large portions of some phases but when he is around he usually has a big thought dump. He didn't attempt anything like that this game which feels scummy from him. He is lean scum but I wouldn't lynch him over moosey or fecal at this stage.

I also am waiting for VE to be around again.



This is the Breshke I know I thought from his first post - He's thinking about the game and townie thoughts.

Show nested quote +
On November 17 2015 09:26 Fecalfeast wrote:
Honestly Farah's filter is pretty nice to look at. I mean, the lynch list is kinda butt because I am leaning town on bresh and am fairly certain that I'm town but being wrong is allowed.

Is there a case on farah or anything that I'm blatantly missing?


arr..

And my virtual townleans have not said anything (Geript, etc.) So I think I'm fooled at least by one.

I'm going to sleep - at Page 30 of Ritoky's wall of text. I've had a lot to drink and calling it a night. I'll continue from there.

Trfel's been trying but like I said - could be his scummy cases he's done it before

Fuck Moosy and his lazy ass town game We will not have it.

Geript fell the fuck off once he got townleaned

NM has been playing his towngame

I'll be up in about 12 hours and bitch that I'm not online and posting. Well suck it I was busy helping out my cousin that I just found out had MS.
which is a not too terrible summary of things to that point. I in no way even made an association case against voting for Scott; I specifically stated that Trfel's vote didn't seem bussy or protected. And for not responding to the case:
Show nested quote +
On November 18 2015 00:55 Trfel wrote:
##vote scott31337

I won't be able to catch up by the deadline. But scott31337 hasn't shown critical thinking, and his activity has been pretty awful. This post shows a lack of critical thinking in particular, he's trying to say stuff, trying to make an argument, but all he really says is that MoosyDoosy is town because he's town, and because he did the same thing last game as town (which obviously does not make him town).

Scott31337 still hasn't taken a stance on me, despite saying that he would many hours ago. Given the lack of original reads and thinking in his posts, I find him getting so upset at MoosyDoosy's play difficult to believe.

What the fuck is to respond to here that wasn't already in my summary. I noted that the above quoted scott post was decent which negates the critical thinking thing. Scott's activity being awful is by no means alignment indicative. Trfel's jumping on him for 1 post that's lacked critical thinking. On that run Trfel should absolutely be lynched because Trfel hasn't had 1 good post that requires actual thought. Trfel is literally just picking at minor things that don't matter and aren't alignment indicative. Scott not taking a stance on Trfel is literally irrelevant.
Trfel's "case" on scott isn't a case. It's not even a set of good points against scott.

Trfel should 100% be shot tonight period.


On November 18 2015 14:46 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 18 2015 04:42 Trfel wrote:
There is clearly a direction in Breshke's filter, and there are also some very insightful comments. The latter is the huge part of Breshke's town play, and it's very present this game.

Looking through Breshke's filter, here's his direction:

Early question to Eversince, ends in town lean
Townread on The Shining
Town lean on geript and ritoky
Scum read on MoosyDoosy
Investigating VisceraEyes
Willing to lynch MoosyDoosy, Fecalfeast, and scott31337, still trying to figure out VisceraEyes
Votes for MoosyDoosy

The interesting thing here is that he's actually engaging with his scumreads and trying to get more information. He questioned VisceraEyes with a very sensible progression. His reads make sense and his pushes all have a followup.

My points on Breshke covered this entirely. Breshke should not be read on his reads. It's about how he interacts with and acts in response to what's happening in the thread. Him blandly asking questions that go no where and lead to no conclusions is part of his scum meta. So what Trfel has pointed towards is specifically his scum meta and Trfel is trying to paint him town for it.


Critical questions to me

(1) did Trfel misrepresent Scott's meta? he has 18 games played in the database. how many of these does he have with Scott? might be time to do some digging and see whether this was below expectations. I have never played with Trfel, and only 2 games with Scott but I can try and take an educated guess if I can count.

(2) did Trfel misrepresent Breshke's meta? honestly I read Breshke's filter and came to the opposite conclusion but like I said I don't know these people.

I really need some veteran input on this.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 14:49 GMT
#1196
I made another misstatement, figures:

"nothing has jumped out at me other than the push on Scott, but geript implied (by meta, which again I disregarded because well....it was meta) that Trfel should have known better - he used his town meta to indicate this as Scott's scum meta to get him lynched."

should be instead:

"nothing has jumped out at me other than the push on Scott, but geript implied (by meta, which again I disregarded because well....it was meta) that Trfel should have known better - he used traits for scott that were not alignment indicative to indicate this as Scott's scum meta to get him lynched."
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 14:49 GMT
#1197
##vote Breshke

Placing it here for now.

Database digging and then I have to go in for a research seminar at 3pm.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 15:02 GMT
#1198
should Trfel have known scott's meta better?

Trfel - 18 games, 3 as scum, 1 as third party
Scott - 14 games, 3 as scum

next step - go to the games where they both overlapped and scott was town

Scott was town in 11 of the 14 games he played on TL.

Trfel was present in the following games.
(1) Newbie 11 - Trfel was mafia that game
(2) Gaiden - Trfel was town
(3) Battle of the Drams - Trfel was town

Also Scott was in Completely normal generic mafia which Trfel observed.

so he has three games' worth of meta knowledge and possibly more on scott where scott was town.

is this information enough to say that he should have known better? I have to stop here but the question might lie in reads he made outside this game. particularly in Gaiden and Battle of the Drams where Trfel was town.

but three games? gut reaction says yes he should have known better.

can anyone discuss?
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
November 19 2015 15:03 GMT
#1199
seminars until 1700 maybe 1730, will return.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
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