|
On October 23 2015 07:49 Vivax wrote:
Bothers me how first GB goes from "Vivax mafia cause tone" when most people agreed that it's my town tone, and then thinks of another reason to scumread me for and switches over to saying that he's suspicious of my townreads cause he doesn't know how they're formed.
So um yeah, either my tone sucks but then my townreads don't have anything to do with it, and when confronted with other people's opinions (marv was hitting that with a pneumatic hammer) he abandons it and starts looking for another reason to bitch about my alignment, so he asks me some fancy questions "why do you townread these dudes" when it's a question he could ask anyone without having to scumread them first.
Maybe you're onto something.... Well, it does kind of feel like a premeditated push.
|
On October 23 2015 07:48 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 07:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 23 2015 07:44 marvellosity wrote:On October 23 2015 07:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Chromatically seems to be the most level headed person in this game. It's like not totally out of question he is scum here but most likely he is just town as his posting suggests. This is what worries me tbh. Not that I'm saying he isn't a levelheaded person, but I'm kinda struggling to place him in the game which I don't like what do you mean by this? like you don't know where he is headed or what? I don't know how to explain and it may be nothing like I know he's been on ritoky and stuff. but with most other people i can remember who they argued with, or standing out in particular for some reason, or meta stuff when I think about them. so for me Chromatically is kinda just *there*. tbh right now i'm not even sure i'm suspicious of him for it,not filtered him or anything, i'll do that tomorrow. so he can go about his business ^^
I kinda like him because i basically agree with the most of the stuff he says and he seems to be on the same page with me in almost all of his reads or targets of questioning (i mean, it kinda tells you who he considers mafia/town -- as in who/how he questions).
|
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On October 23 2015 07:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 07:48 marvellosity wrote:On October 23 2015 07:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 23 2015 07:44 marvellosity wrote:On October 23 2015 07:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Chromatically seems to be the most level headed person in this game. It's like not totally out of question he is scum here but most likely he is just town as his posting suggests. This is what worries me tbh. Not that I'm saying he isn't a levelheaded person, but I'm kinda struggling to place him in the game which I don't like what do you mean by this? like you don't know where he is headed or what? I don't know how to explain and it may be nothing like I know he's been on ritoky and stuff. but with most other people i can remember who they argued with, or standing out in particular for some reason, or meta stuff when I think about them. so for me Chromatically is kinda just *there*. tbh right now i'm not even sure i'm suspicious of him for it,not filtered him or anything, i'll do that tomorrow. so he can go about his business ^^ I kinda like him because i basically agree with the most of the stuff he says and he seems to be on the same page with me in almost all of his reads or targets of questioning (i mean, it kinda tells you who he considers mafia/town -- as in who/how he questions).
kinda reminds me of your Shining townread d1 last game though.
|
United Kingdom36156 Posts
tbh i don't really wanna make too much of it right now because i have nothing so it's a bit mean ;p
i'll look properly tomorrow.
|
On October 23 2015 07:55 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 07:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 23 2015 07:48 marvellosity wrote:On October 23 2015 07:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 23 2015 07:44 marvellosity wrote:On October 23 2015 07:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Chromatically seems to be the most level headed person in this game. It's like not totally out of question he is scum here but most likely he is just town as his posting suggests. This is what worries me tbh. Not that I'm saying he isn't a levelheaded person, but I'm kinda struggling to place him in the game which I don't like what do you mean by this? like you don't know where he is headed or what? I don't know how to explain and it may be nothing like I know he's been on ritoky and stuff. but with most other people i can remember who they argued with, or standing out in particular for some reason, or meta stuff when I think about them. so for me Chromatically is kinda just *there*. tbh right now i'm not even sure i'm suspicious of him for it,not filtered him or anything, i'll do that tomorrow. so he can go about his business ^^ I kinda like him because i basically agree with the most of the stuff he says and he seems to be on the same page with me in almost all of his reads or targets of questioning (i mean, it kinda tells you who he considers mafia/town -- as in who/how he questions). kinda reminds me of your Shining townread d1 last game though.
Probably, but i am more wary of letting that go too far like it did with Shining (and to some extent with sicklucker).
I learn from my mistakes.  That doesn't however change my read atm.
|
I might be wrong on GlowingBear, what Vivax said makes a lot of sense tbh.
It's like GB goes "i call this thing scummy then i ask about it" when it should be another way around if he didn't know the reasoning of Vivax' reads. If he doesn't care about the answer (=scummy anyways, as he seemed to think so), why even ask?
|
Hm... rayn, you stopped responding to me because you understood my point about the RNG things, but I'm "dumb" anyway? Why am I "dumb" even if you thought I ultimately had a point? Or did you talk about it with me because you initially put / painted me as scum and then dropped interest when it didn't go anywhere?
Well, I guess you did answer some of it indirectly in your other posts anyway. I was still left hanging especially with how you gave GB/Hopeless such easy town passes (for almost nothing) and why ritoky became scum for... basically disagreeing with you about some RNG statistics?
|
I am also just gonna yolo and say Onegu is town.
|
United Kingdom36156 Posts
yeah i don't feel great about my unvote now
fortunately i can vote again!
|
On October 23 2015 08:00 Xatalos wrote:
Hm... rayn, you stopped responding to me because you understood my point about the RNG things, but I'm "dumb" anyway? Why am I "dumb" even if you thought I ultimately had a point? Or did you talk about it with me because you initially put / painted me as scum and then dropped interest when it didn't go anywhere?
Well, I guess you did answer some of it indirectly in your other posts anyway. I was still left hanging especially with how you gave GB/Hopeless such easy town passes (for almost nothing) and why ritoky became scum for... basically disagreeing with you about some RNG statistics?
Because i can see how it makes sense in your world, it doesn't change the fact i consider it dumb.
That's not why i read ritoky mafia. And i can read Hopeless very well. Probably better than anyone in this game. I missed some stuff on GB, he looked level headed enough for me to consider him town and he is another person whose posts i pay very little attention to at least early on, unless ofc i think he is mafia.
|
On October 23 2015 07:37 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 07:31 Hopeless1der wrote:On October 23 2015 06:38 ritoky wrote:On October 23 2015 06:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 23 2015 06:27 ritoky wrote:On October 23 2015 06:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I have a question. Xatalos do you seriously think Blazinghand - as town - believes that lynching by RNG on D1 has the best chances of hitting mafia? Like do you SERIOUSLY believe that? depending on the setup of the game and the structure of PRs, yes. really? when he himself just argued it's less likely to hit mafia then not rng lycnhing? it's actually equally as likely, so i disagree with your premise entirely. it's actually really simple. i mean i guess it's pretty simple for me cuz i read like 10 of BH's games in the recent past so i could accurately impersonate him. here's your guide to reading BH: Did he RNG immediately @ the start of the game: if yes -> 80% chance to be town; if no -> 80% chance to be mafia Did he push the RNG target or just leave it there like a dead fish: if push -> 95% chance to be town; if dead fish - 50% chance to be mafia Did he gather reads from people arguing with him about why they are better than RNG: yes - DING DING DING town; i don't know he hasn't given reads - 75% town; no - 50% town rayn, was this your turning point on ritoky? They're right when saying that ritoky posted nothing between "(rayn thinks) ritoky is town" and "POE lynch list include ritoky". Yeah as i said that was yesterday. I clearly pointed out (before going to bed) that i dislike Xatalos' & ritoky's reads on BH which i had missed earlier as i was tired. My townread on ritoky before was not based on that at all. I jsut didn't pay attention to his posts because i didn't think he was saying anything interesting. It's like how i treat players who don't say anything interesting (unless something changes)... in every game. There is absolutely nothing contradicting there, i re-evaluated his posting after i had slept and dug up further and came to conclusion he is mafia, because: 1) His read on BH is bad. 2) His reasoning for his read doesn't even make any sense.for example; he says there is 80% chance BH does this rng thing as town, so there is actually then 20% chance of BH doing that as mafia - by default. When people tell his that "BH could totally do that as mafia" it doesn't affect his read at all. In fact he just pushes the townread further with more illogical arguments, like trying to argue random lynching is as effective as not random lynching, which is a straight out lie, and doesn't even have anything to do with BH's alignment. So yeah, there is that. That's basically the only thing he has done in this game in addition to now bitching at me.
Well I guess there could be something with that point 2...... It's a little bit weird how he was so confident on BH being town despite saying that there's a large chance of him "breaking meta"... But I don't really see how he should have been affected by people saying that he could do it as scum, considering he originally said it himself too. Meh. I don't really see it as any big point against him.
Could you walk me through how Hopeless is clearly town? I think marv said it too? So there might be some merit in it.
|
On October 23 2015 07:53 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 07:49 Vivax wrote:
Bothers me how first GB goes from "Vivax mafia cause tone" when most people agreed that it's my town tone, and then thinks of another reason to scumread me for and switches over to saying that he's suspicious of my townreads cause he doesn't know how they're formed.
So um yeah, either my tone sucks but then my townreads don't have anything to do with it, and when confronted with other people's opinions (marv was hitting that with a pneumatic hammer) he abandons it and starts looking for another reason to bitch about my alignment, so he asks me some fancy questions "why do you townread these dudes" when it's a question he could ask anyone without having to scumread them first. Maybe you're onto something.... Well, it does kind of feel like a premeditated push.
No it doesn't.
There is no scum-motivation behind trying to push someone who is being universally townread. If scum wants to push someone, they will push mislynchable townies. They (usually) are never going against a hard target.
I pushed Vivax because I don't like his tone and his easy town passes. I can find it scummy before further investigating it.
I'm re-reading the game atm.
|
On October 23 2015 05:11 Onegu wrote:
My RNG sheep is...
GlowingBear.
GlowingBear my vote is yours!!!
OK!
##Vote: Onegu
|
I really really do not like this Xatalos read on rayn. Look at this:
On October 23 2015 06:54 Xatalos wrote:
Meh... maybe rayn could be scum after all? He seems a bit too similar to his last scumgame on VS. There his reads were mostly unexplained and the read progressions were rather hard to understand. He also was quite nitpicky / aggressive towards things that weren't necessarily scummy at all. It's an uncomfortable feeling I got from the last pages.
On October 23 2015 07:08 Xatalos wrote:
Hm. I mean... town rayn can be aggressive, but it's usually more focused on specifically scummy things and quite "tunnely". Like a bull seeing red and then attacking until it's dead. From my last scum experience with rayn, he shifted his stances a lot, in weird and unexplained ways. It was more like searching for an angle of attack rather than attacking something suspicious. I get an eerily similar feeling from him this game :/
On October 23 2015 07:12 Xatalos wrote:
Has anyone played with town rayn in like the last months? Has he become this... "shifty", hard to grasp as town too?
On October 23 2015 07:24 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 07:21 ritoky wrote:On October 23 2015 07:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 23 2015 07:17 ritoky wrote:On October 23 2015 07:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 23 2015 07:13 marvellosity wrote:On October 23 2015 05:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
okay after poe i am lynching into:
Blazinghand
Xatalos
Onegu
Alakaslam
ritoky
i am pretty sure we have three mafia there. i thought you told me ritoky was town? yeah that was yesterday. On October 23 2015 06:53 ritoky wrote:On October 22 2015 12:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i think ritoky is town tbh On October 23 2015 05:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
okay after poe i am lynching into:
Blazinghand
Xatalos
Onegu
Alakaslam
ritoky
i am pretty sure we have three mafia there. On October 23 2015 05:24 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I don't understand the reads on ritoky. He literally said:
"BH is town until he does something egregious enough to be considered not town."
"generally speaking he doesn't rng as mafia, but i wouldn't put it past him to break meta."
So what? He townreads Blazinghand for something he then says, in the next post, is not a reason to townread Blazinghand`!!? On October 23 2015 05:42 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 23 2015 05:39 Blazinghand wrote:On October 23 2015 05:37 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I fail to see how i am being "aggressive" here, so could you explain BH? well, not towards me. You're actually being a little more gentle with me, compared to normal. Normally I'd expect you to end up TRing ritoky for that on your own. Maybe it's been some time since we played together, or my edge is getting dull, but I recall you being pretty good at noticing people's motivations. ritoky is a really had to read for me and i don't think he has said much of anything that could be in my opinion considered townie.Maybe it's jsut like you say and other people do not know you as well as i do (and what you can / cannot do as mafia), but still... it's really hard for me to believe both of Xatalos and ritoky actually believe you are town for your actions regarding the rng lynch. I just don't fucking buy it. nice one bro. respond. no y'know, gonna be honest here. you're the most underwhelming player that people tell me is good on these forums. i just don't see it; maybe i am the one who is so bad i can't comprehend your greatness; but i don't think that's the case. Well it's quite possible he may just be scum this game. In fact I'm leaning in that direction right now. He can be great as town.
It's like Xatalos really really wants to call rayn mafia but never actually does. He's just kind of throwing suspicion out there about "an uncomfortable feeling". And then he asks people if rayn has been "shifty"? Like he's looking for approval from other people before he actually calls rayn mafia. Xatalos does end up voting rayn, but never confidently says that he's mafia or even probable mafia. Just non-committal "he just may be scum" and "uncomfortable feelings".
What Xatalos calls "shifty" and "unexplained read changes" really is just that rayn flipped his read on ritoky (and maybe his Hopeless read?). Why doesn't he just say that then? Why ask "has town rayn been shifty?" when you could ask "does town rayn flip reads?" The first one paints rayn in a much worse light, but the second one is much clearer and more accurate to what's going on.
In addition, I honestly don't see how flipping a read is even a scum trait. Mafia don't do 180s on their reads for no reason, but town will totally 180 on reads if they reevaluate and think that they used to be wrong. As scum it's so so easy to just stick to your reads no matter what and not have to deal with the suspicion of switching them. It's possible that a townie just disagrees with me on this, but I don't think it's at all accurate to categorize it as "searching for an angle of attack". And I don't think it's at all a reasonable reason for a vote.
These just gave me a really bad feeling. It felt like he's trying to throw suspicion onto rayn without actually attacking him.
I mentioned that I was probably going to flip my read on Xatalos, so here it is. For some reason I didn't pick up on any of this the first few times around, but it started to jump out to me.
I completely agree with what gumshoe said about Xatalos' reads being very waffly:
+ Show Spoiler +On October 22 2015 09:43 gumshoe wrote:... while your here what do you think of xatalos? Personally I feel as if he dedicates alot of talk to the rng thing without actually looking into what it meant about Bh. Burning filter basically. I also get the feeling that hes using my lurky history as a way to waffle on me, thereby positioning himself to go ether way depending on town. Show nested quote +Dunno. I really don't know how gumshoe should be read. You know? I remember him being a really inactive/bad town once and he was basically policy lynched. Then he was extremely similar as scum and managed to survive like that (I even defended him because of him being similar as town earlier lol). Here he's surprisingly actually posting stuff... Or has he started generally posting lately? Show nested quote +Well so far Blazinghand and Vivax feel town. ritoky too? Not as sure about Chromatically yet. yamato and gumshoe are in the gray area.
Of course, rayn = scum. Show nested quote +Hm so you think gumshoe is lightly town? I guess his attempt at playing so far has been decent compared to my past experiences with him...... Show nested quote +Tbh I think any of yamato/gumshoe/Chromatically could be scum atm. None of them feel strongly that way though. Show nested quote +And how would you characterize his meta? My experience has been basically "scummy lurker as either alignment".
Would also like to know why you put ritoky as town as especially marv. He eventually seems to settle on me bieng town, but by then I think the general sentiment was favoring me? if that makes sense / : he just seems very wishy washy, which we all are somewhat at the start of course, but his posting comes off as very repetitive and pointless. He talks about the rng vote, but doesn't infer any reads from it, he jokes alot about the rain vote but again doesn't derive anything from it. Hes just commenting on stuff that means nothing, and cautiously testing the waters with his uncertain reads. would also explain his weird early interaction with chrom, someone hes kinda pushing but not really. I'm open to bieng wrong this game, Xata may very well just be perplexed by my bieng really active, but for now I'm reading him as red / : I go bed now. good night : D
He consistently keeps his options open. Really, go read his filter and count how many strong reads you see. He has one strong read on Vivax that he posts and that's honestly it (apart from his town feel on BH). Look at how much he says "maybe this" and things like that.
On October 22 2015 07:34 Xatalos wrote:
Well I think yamato is probably the most disturbing one of those who have already posted. It's basically nothing but empty complaining. My vote might go to him soon... Though I kind of don't want to abandon the rayn train.
Like what is this? yamato is "disturbing" and he MIGHT move his vote there? It's very non-committal.
If you don't read anything else, look at this post and keep reading from there. He says the exact same waffle about me and yamato THREE TIMES IN A ROW. This doesn't make any sense from a town perspective, but it does make sense from the perspective of a mafia who's trying to be active and show that they're "thinking about the game".
I also didn't like Xatalos' opening posts after reading them again. He starts by asking Vivax where to find a comic, and then spends a few posts talking about randomness and the Random class? Mafia often have a hard time entering the thread, and talking about irrelevant stuff like that is an easy way to do it. He posts a lot and appears active, but very few of the posts contain content. Some examples:
On October 22 2015 06:38 Xatalos wrote:
Why does marv being in the scumteam make it weak? :D
Anyways I was under the impression that TL towns have mostly beaten RNG in recent years.
On October 22 2015 06:32 Xatalos wrote:
Oh well, Java's Random uses the system clock as well, so it's a bit similar, although "more" random.
On October 22 2015 06:35 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2015 06:30 Vivax wrote:
We might already have caught mafia here since yammo doesn't reply in response to my phantastic intimidating presence.
When he's afk he's mafia. Unbeatable logic. I think I've seen him be pretty inactive/useless as scum all around, and mostly OK as town. I think there was one(?) game where he was inactive/useless as town too though.
(This one appears relevant but actually says nothing about yamato, more waffle).
Also his townread on BH doesn't make much sense like rayn has already said. Maybe he's just town and made a bad read (imo) on non-alignment indicative stuff, but I think there's a reasonable chance that as mafia Xatalos just threw out a townread without thinking about the logical town reasoning for it.
|
Sorry about that wall of text and hopefully it's readable. The main points are:
- Very wishy-washy reads on everyone, very few strong reads
- Similarly wishy-washy read on rayn where he just throws suspicion
- Irrelevant first postings that feel like scum trying to enter the thread and seem active
- Townread on BH for irrational reasons (take or leave this one, you probably already have an opinion and it's not a main point)
A lot of it is also a feel/gut read I got from his posts, especially his first posts in the thread. I don't think I can explain that that well so I would look at it yourselves.
##Unvote
##Vote: Xatalos
|
I haven't really changed my read on ritoky, but I think there's a better case for Xatalos right now. I get the feel that he thinks he really knows how to read BH from the fact that he talks about BH a lot, which would mean that he's less likely to be mafia just throwing a townread out there without any reason. Also I don't really get bad feelings from his posting.
GB could be mafia too. I liked how he entered the thread but his Vivax thing was weird. I don't feel very strongly about that right now though.
|
Phew. Finally ended up re-reading.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 22 2015 06:41 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2015 06:39 Xatalos wrote:On October 22 2015 06:36 ritoky wrote:
gumshoe might be mafia. Why? poorly explained response, forced joke, clear post editing, extra lines at the end of post. This post makes me think ritoky is town. I had a similar impression to gumshoe's early posts and it's finally something unrelated to RNG discussion. On October 22 2015 06:56 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2015 06:30 Chromatically wrote:
BH, you talk a lot about why your lynch is random but not at all about why we should follow it. Theres no point to him trying to convince us to follow his lynch. RNG is viable when reads are shit, convincing town to rng lynch requires shit reads. The game has just begun therefore reads have not had the time to develop quality, which means bh does not yet posses his convince condition. In the absence of the means to convince us to choose his method, all he can do is argue how his is truly random. Because a mafia player who argues for an actual rng lynch is forfeiting his ability to protect his teammates (and potentially himself) from rng. A competent scumer would usually have faith in his ability to sway town one way or another, which means he probably wouldn't risk an rng team kill. Basically there are only 3 kinds of players who would propose this strat. 1) a player who is so insecure about his play, he is honestly proposing to just roll the dice instead of play(at least on day 1). This player could be town or scum. 2) A town player who is just using this as a means to prove his innocence "why would I risk killing myself or my teamies as mafia? I must be town!" this works sorta because your odds are quite low of hitting yourself and if you do then you can always say "well I know I'm town, so I'll just disregard this result" -_- 3) A scummer who believes that town will not actually rng lynch because it is objectively a bad strat compared to a really solid case/read. He must hope for this, because to a scummer the rng lynch can actually just backfire, since mafia as an entity operate on a clear pool of lives as opposed to towns mist of health. we can probally straight up rule out the first possibility (bh be goods not scrubs), which leaves 2 and 3. This whole thing seems pre written so hard to tell between them. Honestly best just to ignore the whole thing unless it gets to the point where our reads are so junk an rng lynch is actually more likely. ether way, I dont think bh expects us to actually straight up rng lynch, this was probably just a way to look active early on without actually offering substance (though it might draw substance out of others, which is always good) I don't like this post from gumshoe simply because there are a lot more reasons why someone would RNG, and everyone knows RNG isn't alignment indicative for BH (he has done it as both alignments). If he thinks this something that should be ignore, why putting so many thoughts on it just to say that? I also am not liking Xatalos posts in this game. Xatalos is usually more extensive in his posts when he is town, and he usually talk about relevant stuff. Here, he wasted too much time talking about the RNG and his reads are usually... I don't know... not committed enough? I don't like it. I'm at page 19 and gumshoe is still talking about BH. Argh. On October 22 2015 11:08 Chromatically wrote:I'm back, I'm planning on rereading the thread and looking more into some people but here's where I'm at now: - gumshoe feels really town, especially that last post. The way he rambles shows a town thought process in his posts. - I don't think BH has done anything alignment indicative and I don't understand why people are reading him town. - I liked when rayn said, "Chrom would be town if I hadn't been scum with him before", I think that statement usually comes from someone honestly trying to read me (i.e. town). - Hopeless' entrance felt awkward to me, did not like it. - Xatalos is town for driving discussion and the stuff he says comes from a town perspective, probably Vivax too for similar reasons. If anyone has questions I'd love to hear them because an uncomfortable amount of people seem to think I'm mafia and I don't like it.  I like this post A LOT, especially because he pointed out the stuff on BH. I feel very comfortable to give Chromatically a day pass just for this. On October 23 2015 04:57 Xatalos wrote:gumshoe: It's a bit funny you called me out about waffling on you when your entire last post waffling on... everyone  Every read had some "but... then..." moment haharayn: About BH, I'm not completely sure how I came to lean as strongly town on BH as on Vivax. It might not be as deserved as the townread on Vivax (on objective merits of meta etc.), I just felt (and actually still feel) that his level of effort and activity seemed more likely to come from town. The way he engaged people and seemed to have really thought about his own ideas... It didn't feel at all like a fake push trying to gather credibility. What's more, I skimmed through all the links ritoky provided and it was a common trend that BH pushed the idea of RNG lynching as town but didn't do that as scum. I think it's a minor meta point in BH's favor, even if it's not like it's impossible to fake something like that... I just didn't get the feeling it was fake. Well, did you? For the time being, I'm happy to put BH in the pile of non-lynchables. YEAH XATA, IT'S A BIT FUNNY. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT??? Shouldn't it be alignment indicative for you? I'm now at page 29 and I hardly see BH being suspicious of anyone. He is wasting too much time with this RNG shit. I don't like it. Although I can't actually call it scummy yet. This post makes me feel better about Xatalos: On October 23 2015 05:33 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 05:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
There is absolutely nothing alignment indicative in your rng Blazinghand, you know it, everyone should know it. "Figuring out" something regarding it is a waste of time. Well it's kind of like... Imagine player X. He has a great record of posting a lengthy introduction post as scum when he starts the game, and as town he's so far just immediately jumped in and started posting actual content. Now in a current game he immediately makes a lengthy introduction post. Could he have done it as town to make himself harder to read? Possibly. But I'd still take into account that maybe the meta is repeating itself, no? And if you read my posts, it's not just that about Blazinghand, but more like how he was so excited about the RNG when he's several times before said that it's pro-town. It would be harder to convey that excitement as scum when he think it's so pro-town clearly. I wouldn't give him a town read but it's enough to make me not want to lynch him On October 23 2015 06:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 06:34 Xatalos wrote:On October 23 2015 06:30 Chromatically wrote:
Here's a better question imo: do you really think that BH would have a problem arguing the benefits of RNG lynch as mafia?
He wouldn't have any problem doing that at all, given that he's done the exact same thing many times before and RNG lynch is by definition completely independent of BH's alignment. Well, read my last post.... Also, like I said, even if it might sound good in theory, he hasn't done that so far in his scumgames and it wouldn't probably be as easy in practise ESPECIALLY if the RNG hit his teammate. Do you feel like Blazinghand is pressuring me at the moment? Do you feel like i feel pressured? Do you thin kanyone whould feel pressured if the rng landed on them? I totally agree with this. It looks really bad.
Basically, here is where I'm at:
~ Town:
Chromatically
rayn
marv
~ Null with town passes:
ritoky (I thought he was town but after he got townread his play has been very lackluster)
Xatalos (I hate his filter but I could see some townie posts and I'm never lynching a 8 pages filter on day1)
yamato (I will never lynch yamato on day1 unless he is glaringly scummy, and I have yet to see something scummy in him)
~ Could lynch:
gumshoe (I disliked most of his posts and he even scumread Xatalos for doing exactly what he has done most of the game: wasted it talking about RNG)
Blazinghand (mostly talks about RNG and I have yet to see him getting any scumreads based on his reaction test - he said he won't lynch Chromatically today and that's all that's interesting I have seen him talking about)
~ Could lynch harder:
Onegu (I can never read him and I hated that he said he would sheep me - gives me deja vu from last game where he was mafia against me - him being more invested in this game is usually a bad sign)
Hopeless1der (useless - feels like his play in Avogadro's Mini Mafia)
Vivax (I disagree with everyone, being confident =/= being straight forward and giving unexplained town passes, especially from a guy that I remember seeing flipping his reads constantly based on tinfoil theories. Here I see a guy with static reads that are never updated
Special ? category:
Slam (although people say slam is unreadable, I usually can read him better on later days so I don't really want to think about him on day1)
|
I'd like Chrom, Rayn and Marv to comment if you are up to lynch one of the targets I've displayed, especially the red ones.
|
Also, I just went to the database and I saw that Xatalos never had a filter length bigger than 15 pages as mafia in any of his games.
Carol of the Bells, for instance, is a game where he survived until day5 and had 15 pages of filter. He has more than the half of it on day1 here.
So lynching Xatalos today is COMPLETELY out of the question IMO.
For reference, here is my meta case on Xatalos that happened to be right on Carol of the Bells, for anyone who is interested. I don't know if it makes Xata town or Mafia here, I didn't re-read it (lol), I'm just bringing it here for the sake of more information.
+ Show Spoiler [metacase] +On December 22 2014 11:21 GlowingBear wrote:So, if we talk about town Xatalos, we are mostly talking about an absurd filter length. But more than filter length, Xatalos is a guy who keeps his thoughts in the thread, not in his mind, and is constantly trying to solve the game. I've picked up a game where we played together, it was Guilty Mini Mafia. This is a post he had on his second page of filter: + Show Spoiler +On August 22 2014 19:17 Xatalos wrote:
Damdred -1 Pretty forgettable posts so far instead of awkward like last time.... scum(my)?
raynpelikoneet -1 Robik made a funny point about the way how rayn would have stayed up as town (and he even said that he would stay for the deadline too??) haha - started really aggressive after that, nothing really special to say about that, just a bit of an uncomfortable feeling with the not posting at night despite apparently staying up around the deadline... and somehow his reads feel a bit too certain/forced? let's just say null with some concern for now
Hapahauli 0
justanothertownie 0
Onegu 0
VayneAuthority 0
IAmRobik 1 Casually townreading people etc. just feels a bit towny, probably
KelsierSC 1 "tryhardish" opening post that is actually fluff - and the theme continues.... :/ ugh so awkward, but also confrontational, so maybe just awkwardly tryhard? - really eager to lynch "useless" people ugh..? what is this... well continues to antagonize people so prolly town maybe? dunno... well seems so tryhard that I guess town maybe
yamato77 1 said nothing noteworthy yet - well started making some jokey posts so town?
turtlevine 2 obvious smurf... pretty funny/constructive opening post, townish feels I guess
GlowingBear 4 a LOT less awkward than in the Arnie game IMO, so town? yeah seems pretty natural at posting overall, and constructive, so towntown
WaveOfShadow 4 Reveals willingly which players he's confident in reading and responds to Kelsier in a pretty casual/townish(?) way - really casual posting style so town lean for now You see, he is someone who has reads on a lot of people and contributes with discussion by exteriorising them. More than that, he takes original stances on people. Here is another post by Xatalos on day 1: + Show Spoiler +On August 23 2014 00:08 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On August 22 2014 23:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So far were doing good.
We are not lynching me, KSC, JAT or Robik in any case. Because we are town.
Hapa and Onge have not postesd yet so there is at least one scum in active players.
I am leaning scum on Wave and Glowingbear, strongly.
Is there anyone who thinks they are town? KSC - yeah probably town, really feels like he believes his own ideas and pushes them strongly without care for how he's viewed as a result jat - no idea, how do you townread him so strongly? he had a humongous filter as scum earlier so not activity... and he immediately jumped to discredit me without calling me scum when you called me scum... I just can't feel the strong townread so help me here Robik - not as sure as last game but yeah leaning town for being pretty active and posting stuff you - still not sure, I think you're very capable of doing everything you've done so far as scum so hard to townread you WOS - my earlier townread on him was a bit faulty so I don't really anyhow heavily townread him anymore, why is he scum though? GB - I don't necessarily think he's town anymore, his weird connection read on me+WOS, curiousness about someone townreading him, and overall awkward posts lately don't look good... could be scum I guess You see, he is already giving reads on a lot of people. But more than this: he is contributing without being asked to contribute. Take a look at the nested quote. Rayn isn't directing a question towards Xatalos. Xatalos is posting this because he wanted to contribute, he wanted to discuss his reads. I'll go ahead into later days to show you that he keeps the "solving the game" stance throughout the whole thread: + Show Spoiler +On August 27 2014 01:15 Xatalos wrote:
Still weird that he refused to vote for Robik when 1) he claimed to follow jat's lead and jat voted for Robik 2) he didn't have any real opinion of Robik (except "Robik being Robik") and didn't exactly townread me, but agreed with me a lot and didn't seem to at least suspect me. On August 26 2014 02:17 Xatalos wrote:
Actually I just had a thought. In the Arnie game Damdred constantly asked me these little questions to share my reads more / make me more readable. Damdred's play here reminds me a lot of that. So yeah, I don't want to lynch Damdred today. On August 26 2014 02:50 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2014 02:32 KelsierSC wrote:
Xat Could you give me a condensed version of how you read the game right now after the night kills and the VA claim? Here are my "condensed" reads >.> VayneAuthority -2 not really a fan of his posts so far, I think someone said that he's pretty serious as scum and trolly as town? serious so far... seems to focus only on survival + made a rather dubious roleclaim claimed JOAT early on D2 "to survive" Onegu -1 AFK and still catching up :/ - entered the game constructively and tried to figure out the game, probably town... Hapa made good points about him being reckless to push rayn as scum + showing suspicion towards a Mason claim haha - well hasn't done much lately so dropped points - rayn flipping town puts him into worse light especially since he just threw his vote on rayn and disappeared Damdred 1 Pretty forgettable posts so far instead of awkward like last time.... scum(my)? - actually his more recent posts mirror my thoughts so town? - rayn made a decent(ish) point about him perhaps being SK since he's a bit forgettable/passive??? and also looked for bluetells earlier... but still not a D1 lynch - worst D1 deadline vote, not good - actually his little questions to me remind a lot of the Arnie game so rather wait and see than lynch for now, feels like potentially town Hapahauli 2 entered with great posts on rayn & me, quite confident that he's town - then dropped rayn suddenly, weird, possible scum after all? dunno, doesn't feel like a good D1 lynch anyway - went on to lynch Mafia GF which makes him a lot more towny - possible SK still considering rayn NK? KelsierSC 3 "tryhardish" opening post that is actually fluff - and the theme continues.... :/ ugh so awkward, but also confrontational, so maybe just awkwardly tryhard? - really eager to lynch "useless" people ugh..? what is this... well continues to antagonize people so prolly town maybe? dunno... well seems so tryhard that I guess town maybe... yeah I guess so - well he's been defending rayn and pushing me with very forced reasons so not confident about him being town anymore (though he'd be very stupid if he's scum with rayn) - well more likely town still, very fearless if scum WaveOfShadow 3 Reveals willingly which players he's confident in reading and responds to Kelsier in a pretty casual/townish(?) way - really casual posting style so town lean for now - really active/chatty in Championship as scum though so could be scum too - but he's still pretty happily participating in the discussion and felt genuinely frustrated at some point so town after all? - away for a lot of crucial discussion which drops his points by one - well he's come back to the thread and his posts seem pretty good lately - his thoughts resonated with my thoughts around deadline quite a bit which is good yamato77 3 said nothing noteworthy yet - well started making some jokey posts so town? very lurky though which is scummy for him - re-entered the thread with vengeance and has been very townish, I'd say even obvtown level pretty much - Hapa made some good points about him lacking confidence and going on lurking periods though - still (actively?) lurking and posting here and there... gave up exactly like in the PYP game ALERT ALERT - went on to vote & kill Robik though and started actually doing stuff so probably town after all Look at how he has opinion on everybody and shares it with everyone. Look at how he tried to see things from people's perspective. Look at how he has a thought and posts it in the thread to share his opinion with everybody. This is town Xatalos. ************** Mafia Xatalos is determined by suing the necessary, asking questions, and not really having original thoughts and stances. Moreover, he doesn't have an overall view of the game. + Show Spoiler +On December 10 2013 06:49 Xatalos wrote:
Kushm4sta, by the way, I hope you're planning to play this game seriously. I've witnessed several games that you've partly ruined by lurking or worse.
If you're scum, you can get policy lynched. That's fine. High level of certainty/aggressiveness, uncommon on his townplay described above. + Show Spoiler +On December 10 2013 07:43 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2013 07:36 LSB wrote:On December 10 2013 07:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On December 10 2013 07:21 LSB wrote:On December 10 2013 07:19 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On December 10 2013 07:17 LSB wrote:
I think we need to calm down. My "townie on townie day 1 shitstorm" sense is tingling.
That speaking, oddly enough it does encourage a Xatalos lynch Whom do you feel are townies from this and why? It hasn't really been one on one. It's been HF and Xatalos against Cora, and myself, Alakaslam and you against Xatalos. If you feel it's townie on townie, then you'd think Xatalos was town. So far I think I am townie, I haven't really thought past that. I just don't think this day 1 attitude is gonna be very productive. The whole entire Xatalos suspicion does require a meta read on Xatalos to see if he is brilliant enough to try for the plan on day 1, or does he just play like this. I just skimmed through the filter he linked and I don't think it looks like the start of this game at all. He's far more aggressive here. What were you trying to say exactly with your initial post if you didn't mean to give anyone a town read but yourself? I'm confused. I don't think a plan other than "starting shit" is required for scum. That's always a good thing. In my opinion natural scum play is to stay low, especially on day 1, the town tends to self destruct anyways day 1. This whole entire "starting shit" strat is actually pretty good, even though it is counterintuitive to the idea of trying to not draw attention. Thus I assumed this strat is not very obvious, especially since I personally never considered it. This is all pure speculation. Something more grounded is that Xatalos is definably acting very different from before, and in my eyes less of a townie Well, that game is special in the sense that it started during night and nights were PM-only within given Houses. I definitely put pressure on gumshoe and Grackaroni during the night, I'd say. And I was relatively aggressive during the first day, as well. Probably not as aggressive as here, I agree. Do you mean that passive = townish and aggressive/proactive = scummy? Or what? I can't really see myself playing like this as scum. It'd have to be pretty carefully crafted at least. Too defensive when inquired, lacking deep reads on people. + Show Spoiler +On December 10 2013 08:09 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2013 08:01 Holyflare wrote:On December 10 2013 07:42 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On December 10 2013 07:36 LSB wrote:On December 10 2013 07:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On December 10 2013 07:21 LSB wrote:On December 10 2013 07:19 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On December 10 2013 07:17 LSB wrote:
I think we need to calm down. My "townie on townie day 1 shitstorm" sense is tingling.
That speaking, oddly enough it does encourage a Xatalos lynch Whom do you feel are townies from this and why? It hasn't really been one on one. It's been HF and Xatalos against Cora, and myself, Alakaslam and you against Xatalos. If you feel it's townie on townie, then you'd think Xatalos was town. So far I think I am townie, I haven't really thought past that. I just don't think this day 1 attitude is gonna be very productive. The whole entire Xatalos suspicion does require a meta read on Xatalos to see if he is brilliant enough to try for the plan on day 1, or does he just play like this. I just skimmed through the filter he linked and I don't think it looks like the start of this game at all. He's far more aggressive here. What were you trying to say exactly with your initial post if you didn't mean to give anyone a town read but yourself? I'm confused. I don't think a plan other than "starting shit" is required for scum. That's always a good thing. In my opinion natural scum play is to stay low, especially on day 1, the town tends to self destruct anyways day 1. This whole entire "starting shit" strat is actually pretty good, even though it is counterintuitive to the idea of trying to not draw attention. Thus I assumed this strat is not very obvious, especially since I personally never considered it. This is all pure speculation. Something more grounded is that Xatalos is definably acting very different from before, and in my eyes less of a townie I don't feel like Xatalos put himself in the spotlight as much as trying to put others in the spotlight. Corazon put himself in the spotlight without any scum gain. When you look at his post from a scum point of view, it doesn't make sense for them to make it. I can see a scum agenda behind Xatalos' posts. That said, I do like his view on my pressure on him in that it was nuanced rather than trying to score town points. The rest of the day should provide more information. On December 10 2013 07:36 Holyflare wrote:Nobody going to discuss cora's mindset or are you going to dismiss it outright for xantos discussion some more? On December 10 2013 06:52 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Holy, I don't feel like his response is that different. I also don't think he'd put himself out there so much at the start of the game. No reason to draw attention to yourself like that as scum. Given you quoted me I take it you'd like a response from me? I don't find Corazon scummy at this point in time because he drew attention to himself without any scum benefit. Is it not also a scum mindset to heavily defend themselves when attacked, unnaturally so? Also while defending themselves to then deflect upon another person? Why are you only looking for the people that are "starting shit"? I only know a few scum that play that way. Have you any scum meta on Xatalos that suggests he plays like he is? I don't like how you're so dismissive over cora without discussion when with Xantos you skim the filters to discuss him further. On December 10 2013 06:52 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Holy, I don't feel like his response is that different. I also don't think he'd put himself out there so much at the start of the game. No reason to draw attention to yourself like that as scum. On December 10 2013 07:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On December 10 2013 07:21 LSB wrote:On December 10 2013 07:19 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On December 10 2013 07:17 LSB wrote:
I think we need to calm down. My "townie on townie day 1 shitstorm" sense is tingling.
That speaking, oddly enough it does encourage a Xatalos lynch Whom do you feel are townies from this and why? It hasn't really been one on one. It's been HF and Xatalos against Cora, and myself, Alakaslam and you against Xatalos. If you feel it's townie on townie, then you'd think Xatalos was town. So far I think I am townie, I haven't really thought past that. I just don't think this day 1 attitude is gonna be very productive. The whole entire Xatalos suspicion does require a meta read on Xatalos to see if he is brilliant enough to try for the plan on day 1, or does he just play like this. I just skimmed through the filter he linked and I don't think it looks like the start of this game at all. He's far more aggressive here. What were you trying to say exactly with your initial post if you didn't mean to give anyone a town read but yourself? I'm confused. I don't think a plan other than "starting shit" is required for scum. That's always a good thing. Look at the difference between these two points - on the one hand (cora) is dismissed by saying "I don't think scum plays that way" whereas the second (Xatalos) is "I have skimmed it briefly and think it's different because X,Y,Z. Question, question. _____________________________ In regards to the point that you made about cora, I don't think he's "putting himself out there" like you suggest, he said that he couldn't dedicate some time towards the game but would still post actively and got picked up on it and was like OMGNUUWRONGRAWRRR!!!!!! and then didn't discuss why with people further or indicate that he had reads on other people because of what happened. He left the thread and then returned when people started mentioning Xatalos and piggybacked upon that with no new reasoning other than what people had said before. He mentions how people in the thread were piggybacking previously (me, etc.) and had qualms with them but then does the same thing here: On December 10 2013 07:10 Corazon wrote:
I do feel like Slam was right as well. If Xatalos was using good logic and pushing me like a townie, I wouldn't have a problem with him. However, he is using faulty logic on purpose and trying to pass it off as correct when in fact his conclusions only come about because he needs to fake pressure on me. This is contradictary with his previous approach of disliking people that piggybacking and is essentially +1ing another players points. Take this in B2B for example, people had a bad read on him and he DISCUSSED why it was bad: On November 21 2013 01:00 Corazon wrote:
When did I say that sciberia was bad town? Please find a post where I said he was bad town.
I didn't vote for sciberia because 0% of wagons in the first 2 hours of a game actually get to the deadline? None. What is the point of vote-jumping? It just allows people to skim my cases once they see the bold vote and only really look at it once it's my turn to be under the gun. Voting for people at this stage is pretty useless because it's not going to get a lynch going. I guarantee you that our reads and opinions are going to change before the deadline and it's useless to lock yourself in (or at least making a statement saying you are going to) 2 hours into a game.
That case was confirmation bias because you took 1-2 decent points about me (which alone are not enough to justify a vote or my lynching) and then supplemented them with saying "Corazon is doing stuff that he always does in every game, he has to be scum for it in this one". He mentions WHY the case was bad etc etc, discusses it and outlines why he thinks it was bad croming from X player. Where is that here? It was a dissmissal of a case from me and a sheep onto townish consesus Xatalos. __________________________________________ I don't like how these things are most definitely brushed off for simplicity that "I don't think scum do this" when there is a body of evidence that suggests a player does not play like this. Vote Cora for best lynch. These are definitely some good points. It's surely premature to declare Corazon as today's lynch, but it would be a good pick in the current situation. I dislike Artanis's dismissal of Corazon's play as well, but I doubt Artanis and Corazon would be scum together. It would seem risky to make a connection like that. That's WIFOM, though. Commenting others ideas without actually bringing his own to the table. Says something wishy washy without risking himself with his reads ********* Xatalos is playing much more like his scum game than his town game here. This is specific and out of context, but illustrates what I'm saying: + Show Spoiler +On December 18 2014 23:31 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2014 23:22 rsoultin wrote:
Okay -_- So for those of you who don't like wall posts I will make my stance simple. Most of my points on GB could happen as either town or mafia. Town can flip their reads on a gut read (odd that the one it protects is scum, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything) to someone instead of focusing on genuinely scummy behavior. Town can digress into a "town only gives presents to town" WIFOM for no reason. Town can speculate on set-ups and base scum reads on that. Town can tunnel. All of these things together look worse...or at least make the player look like a bad town player...but there are a couple things that are scum-motivated that have no town motivation at all:
- Continually calling for mass claiming in an open set-up where scum has 2-3KSs.Or calling for certain individuals to claim (carolers, those who were roleblocked, vet)
- Attempting to take credit for a lynch when he did not catch the lie, and furthermore did not vote for the player being lynched, when he clearly had enough time to do so. His defense that he was trying to see who would jump onto a third train was never followed through on...he is back on his old soapbox today.
^ There are no reasons that these are town behaviors. Plain and simple. You can ignore everything else and write it off as a pisspoor town player, but there are no reasons for a town player to do these two things.
HF may well be scum, I don't know. But I haven't seen him do scummy things, and I have seen GB do a multitude. Again, if you want to base your lynch decisions on WIFOM, presents, and set-up speculation...be my guest. Don't be surprised if it comes back to bite you in the arse though. Yeah I agree. For both of those the scum motivation is strong and the town motivation is non-existent. I like Templar as scum too, though. But at least he hasn't actively pushed scum agenda. ##Vote GlowingBear This is Xat agreeing with an idea which is not his own, going against a townie, which he had no deep read or strong push. He also doesn't have any list post like I've brought from Guilty Mini Mafia. (Town game: Guilty Mini Mafia Scum game: Titanic II)(
(I'd also like to add up that reading this game has been delightful. I can't say how much I prefer a concise AND precise thread like this)
|
Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 23 2015 11:18 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 05:11 Onegu wrote:
My RNG sheep is...
GlowingBear.
GlowingBear my vote is yours!!! OK! ##Vote: Onegu
righteous
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
