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On October 29 2015 01:55 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2015 01:51 Xatalos wrote:On October 29 2015 01:44 GlowingBear wrote:On October 29 2015 00:57 Xatalos wrote:On October 25 2015 17:32 GlowingBear wrote:On October 25 2015 12:17 Onegu wrote:On October 25 2015 10:43 GlowingBear wrote:
I hardly believe any scum would put so much effort in a case like that on me.
But I'm not scum. But does his case hold water? Like the meta? I havent fully read it yet. I am getting some sleep now. I don't know, I haven't read the case since I'm town, so that automatically makes his case completely wrong Eh... These responses aren't really good though... What am I supposed to say, Xatalos? If people compare my gameplay in this game with other games I've played and reach the conclusion I'm mafia, the meta is wrong because I'm town. There's nothing else to be said here Well... I guess as town it should be easier demolish cases since they're wrong... Right? It's easy to demolish cases as either alignment. All I had to do is read his case and play accordingly to the town meta chromatically brought here to be instantly town read. It's SO SO easy to filter dive and bring a case on someone who is being suspected by everyone in the thread. I'm not going to do that.
Is this talking about my case on you?
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Alright I've been staring at Vivax's stuff for a while now and I don't think I'm really getting anywhere. I still like a lot of what he posts this game because his thoughts sound pretty town to me and he posts his thoughts a lot. There have been a few things that I didn't like (his read on me/the way he jumped on ritoky/his avoiding voting GB D2), but I'm not sure if that's just because I disagree with what he's saying. I looked at his meta too but I don't think I got anything out of it, I thought I was feeling town at first but as I looked at it more I think I might have just been confirmation biasing. So I guess in total I feel slightly less sure about him? But not very much.
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Most of GB's posts on Vivax
- "I'm used to see Vivax being paranoid town and him giving a bunch of town reads right out of the blue does not looks like his standard gameplay." #491 (first posts)
- "I disagree with everyone, being confident =/= being straight forward and giving unexplained town passes, especially from a guy that I remember seeing flipping his reads constantly based on tinfoil theories. Here I see a guy with static reads that are never updated" #737 (list post)
- "He has yet to explain the townreads, his activity dropped, his reads are static." #774 (post to rayn D1)
- "He comes back, jokes about stuff, says some random stuff about killing me, but actually talks about nothing else in the game. His read on yamato has vanished, too." #1114 (end of D1)
- "Vivax called Yamato scum for being inactive (in less than 24 hours in the game). When yamato turned against me, Vivax gave him a very weird townread (it felt like a joke, Vivax said it was an actual townread). Yamato is inactive now. Vivax never talks about him anymore. He only supports my lynch when people talk about it." #1808 (D2)
- "Vivax has displayed some townie posts, I must agree, but his overall gameplay seems scummy to me. He doesn't feel engaged to win. He hasn't done anything memorable." #2818 (D3)
I was looking through GB's filter again, and I noticed how his reasons for his read on Vivax really change a lot throughout the game. His actual read is completely static, but the reasons completely change and GB gives no sign of how his read is evolving.
For example, he starts by saying that Vivax isn't paranoid enough, but hasn't mentioned that in a long time. Instead he talks about yamato and how Vivax forgot about his read on him, but then he also didn't mention that again today? The only reasons he's given today are the ones in the last bullet point, which are basically completely unrelated to the ones he's given before.
Basically, if the other reasons from earlier still apply, then why hasn't GB mentioned them at all? And if they don't apply anymore, then why has his read not shown any signs of reevaluation?
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Still going to give ritoky and BH's filters a thorough look to make sure I'm not missing something big, but I think if we lynch GB/Onegu/Hopeless we will AT LEAST get to final three. I think we'll probably just win, but I really don't see any way for two of them to be mafia.
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On October 29 2015 06:47 Chromatically wrote:
Still going to give ritoky and BH's filters a thorough look to make sure I'm not missing something big, but I think if we lynch GB/Onegu/Hopeless we will AT LEAST get to final three. I think we'll probably just win, but I really don't see any way for two of them to be mafia.
*to be town, that is
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On October 29 2015 08:54 Xatalos wrote:
Hm yeah, that is a pretty extreme tunnel.... Though he did mention that Vivax has "made some townie posts"? Well, that's a very vague description, I agree. And Vivax has just remained safely scummy throughout the game even if the reasons change :/
Can't say I'm really sad if we solve him today.
Might even vote for him closer to deadline if you think GB is a much better option than Onegu, Chromatically.
Yay! I can't argue for Onegu at all, but GB is much surer to me.
I think it might be a good idea for people to consolidate more on one wagon prior to deadline? It seems like most people are pretty okay with Onegu or GB, and I'm a little worried about a situation where the wagons are 4-4 and Hopeless gets the deciding vote or something. Maybe that would deprive us of some voting information but I'm not sure how helpful that is at this point.
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Hopeless has not posted in two real life days, Onegu has posted once this phase 24 hours ago. Not sure what to think of that or if it doesn't matter? Hopeless looks like he's just heading for a modkill (which could theoretically screw us over but he would be lynched at some point I guess). Onegu's been posting so it's strange that he hasn't today.
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Read ritoky and BH's filters, still town on them. I think it's possible BH is mafia, but pretty unlikely because he's done a lot of analysis/trying to find mafia and is mostly making sense. So I guess he's probably 4th/5th on the list with Vivax (which doesn't say much at this point because I really do think everyone else is town).
So yeah... GB/Onegu/Hopeless.
Don't let this game go full RIP guys.
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On October 29 2015 13:27 ritoky wrote:
wife surprised me with sounders playoff tickets. won't be here until around deadline. WE WONNNNN SDGHDSGHSJGBSDGBKD
Probably should vote buddy!
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On October 29 2015 14:19 GlowingBear wrote:
Chrom, if I'm mafia with Onegu, why not voting him now?
Not much of a choice is there?
On October 29 2015 20:44 Xatalos wrote:
I think the scumteam has to be in GB/Onegu/hopeless/ritoky... Chromatically has looked quite good lately, so it's likely not him.
I doubt there's much benefit to clearly consolidating? There's potential to more information if the situation is uncertain (hard choices for scum).
I really don't think it's ritoky, but it's hard for me to express why. I think it's a combination of his tone (which sounds really town to me), his willingness to figure out the game (he's been one of the people working consistently on it I feel like), and his paranoia (not just going on autopilot).
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On October 30 2015 00:20 GlowingBear wrote:
It should be clear to you guys that there must be at least 1 town wagon since no other lynch was proposed here. I highly doubt mafia wouldn't focus on scumreading someone else by now (almost EOD) if both wagons were mafia.
Gumshoe, why aren't you voting Onegu?
Yeah this is straight up not true, if the team is what people think it is then they have zero pull in the thread to propose lynches (you and Onegu have tried).
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On October 30 2015 01:42 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2015 03:44 gumshoe wrote:On October 29 2015 03:27 Blazinghand wrote:On October 29 2015 03:10 gumshoe wrote:
Bh, I considered what you said about scum bieng the ONLY ones to be pushing rayn
that would mean a combination of vivax gb xata and ritoky.
I consider xata and ritoky pretty hard town at this point, and vivax and gb arent likely to be scum together
so I think the possibility that scum were town reading rayn is much higher. What ya think? I am not saying scum were the only ones pushing rayn. I'm just saying your logc, which again, seems to be pretty strange, could be used to prove both "scum were all on rayn" and "no scum were on rayn". If you are using a heuristic or piece of logic and it can prove anything easily, it should be allowed to fail. The problem with this idea that "scum weren't able to lynch rayn, therefore scum are X, Y, and Z" fails because it explains too much. If an explanation can explain literally any outcome, it has no predictive value. I actually went back and found the quote that first explained this concept to me, so you too can learn: In Munich in the days of the great theoretical physicist Arnold Sommerfeld (1868–1954), trolley cars were cooled in summer by two small fans set into their ceilings. When the trolley was in motion, air flowing over its top would spin the fans, pulling warm air out of the cars. One student noticed that although the motion of any given fan was fairly random—fans could turn either clockwise or counterclockwise—the two fans in a single car nearly always rotated in opposite directions. Why was this? Finally he brought the problem to Sommerfeld.
“That is easy to explain,” said Sommerfeld. “Air hits the fan at the front of the car first, giving it a random motion in one direction. But once the trolley begins to move, a vortex created by the first fan travels down the top of the car and sets the second fan moving in precisely the same direction.”
“But, Professor Sommerfeld,” the student protested, “what happens is in fact the opposite! The two fans nearly always rotate in different directions.”
“Ahhhh!” said Sommerfeld. “But of course that is even easier to explain.” --Devine and Cohen, Absolute Zero Gravity, p. 96. Thats very true, but we have a certain context to clash against my argument, which gives it some utility. heres the frame my argument provides. Scum want to win, scum need to mislynch townies, rayn on paper is the most mislynchable townie, but they shot him, so clearly there was some reason that scum were not confident in mislynching him. There are two possibilities. 1: The majority of Scum are pushing rayn and the rest of town are opposed, which would mean a combination of xatalos, ritoky, gb and vivax, 2 of which, vivax and gb, cant be scum together, and the other 2 arent likely scum based of thier play. so not real hit there. 2: The majority of scum are town reading rayn for varius reasons, and cannot switch to him without contradicting themselves. townies fairly vehemently oposed to rayn bieng scum (hopeless, gumshoe, onegu, bh chromatically) three of these players, me you and chrom, appear townie from thier play, but hopeless and onegu do fit the mold of a majority scum team that cannot mislynch rayn because they are townreading him. Basically when you cross refrence scummy play with the argument that most of sum are townreading rayn and therefore cannot mislynch him, and the argument that most of scum are scum reading him therefore they cannot lynch him, this is the only real hit you get.Does that make sense? Imagine the two possibilities of the fan argument, but consider as well that there are markings on the wall that suggest one rotation as opposed to the other. That's how one would figure the truth in such a matter. Your arguement doesnt make much sense because reads can flip. If only scum were town reading him what is to stop their reads from flipping to oh yeah I can see that on a case and voting rayn. Or saying rayn is cancer this game I am going to vote him. Rayns reads were correct and that is why he was killed. A serious rayn is capable of putting a legit case on scum even if he is being scum read getting that person lynched. I wasnt surprised rayn was killed. I town read him hard. I agreed with most of his reads.In a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo.
Which of his reads did you agree with?
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On October 30 2015 02:38 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2015 02:20 Chromatically wrote:
Which of his reads did you agree with? Come on, it's in his filter. Obviously he agrees with rayn on Xata and hopeless. Disagrees on GB and BH. Interestingly GB is on his lynch and so is BH, people he isn't scumreading and who were in rayn's case. Not sure actually if rayn was still thinking of Xata being scum before he died. He's kinda ignoring two guys who want to lynch him and who rayn scumread? Then I'd like to know his own reasoning for the reads.
See, I wanted him to explain it to see how he would explain the fact that he didn't really agree with a lot of rayn's reads. I don't even think rayn thought Xatalos was mafia when he died too.
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On October 30 2015 02:36 Xatalos wrote:
I guess Onegu/GB makes more sense with this turn of events? (Onegu gunning for hopeless)
And yeah, it's odd to ignore rayn's top scumread while otherwise relying on his reads to that extent...
If Onegu/GB is the team then it's been full-on bus territory for a while now I think, there's a super low chance that the lynch gets redirected to Hopeless here.
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On October 30 2015 03:08 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2015 02:51 Vivax wrote:
He probably saw two wagons, all on mafia, is too tired to play properly with his flu.
Dropped a vote on hopeless and went to bed thinking "one for the team". yeah honestly nothing that's happened has made me think "lynching GB 1G H1 is bad" it's all consistent
yep agree
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Why would we shenanny off of good lynches?
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I'm here now, stay the course preferably on GB because there's 1 billion reasons in the thread why (marv and rayn both thought he was mafia too) but I would only be a little annoyed if we lynched Onegu instead.
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EPT
