EPTTL Mafia LXXII: Gaiden 2 - Page 7
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On August 31 2015 07:10 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: No, I didn't miss it. There is potential godfather and potential framer, or marvellosity could be lying (unlikely, but still). I'm confident enough in my deconduo read to consider lynching him despite a green check.missed that decondou is conf. town via marv cop | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On August 31 2015 07:12 Palmar wrote: Fair enough, I guess.... whatever....No I'm just having a bit of fun with these boys. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
If anyone would like to discuss anything else with me, please ask. I'll be reading from page 126. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On August 30 2015 23:48 Vivax wrote: Good to know you're blind, I already stated that I was filter diving everyone. I read VisceraEyes' filter and arrived at a conclusion different from my earlier toneread.The post from VE that hopeless brought up needs an answer from Trfel, I can't find any looking through his filter. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On August 31 2015 09:12 MoosyDoosy wrote: Because I know he's town.Wow ok. This makes me think that you were aiming for the "too scummy so he's town" or the "too idgaf so he's town" attempt. If you were remotely interested in explaining why you were so absolutely convinced that lynching Palmar was a bad idea then that would be helpful. Look, I want to work with you. I'm probably getting lynched anyway. When I flip town, this way you can actually work with me and maybe we can make some progress on solving the game for LYLO. Were I mafia, you have two free mafia (me and KelsierSC) so it's okay if you waste a day assuming I'm town before you lynch me. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On August 31 2015 02:10 deconduo wrote: Bottom side of a reads post doesn't mean scummy. Hopeless1der still had a slight town lean.@Trfel, the posts below confuse me a little: Confident that Hopeless is mafia. Wait no he's actually town. Nope, back down in the scummy side again. Given that hopeless had posted almost nothing in between these posts, what has made you change your mind so much on him? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
This argument combined with the fact that Mr. Cheesecake was still putting a ton of effort into the game makes the wagon analysis strong. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On August 31 2015 06:27 Vivax wrote: Wait a second... so my argument that the state of the wagon on Mr. Cheesecake suggests that Mr. Cheesecake is town is terrible, and it's suspicious that Mr. Cheesecake agreed with this argument, however you want to lynch Palmar because the fact that no one is talking suggests that the wagon could be on town!??!I don't know, I just know that it ends up in terrible lynches when half the town is afk. I have like a feeling of impending doom cause it's only us making the decision now and there's almost no feedback, which IS indicative that the wagon could be on town. I feel like yolo voting Palmar. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On August 31 2015 06:58 Vivax wrote: So my mason claim is definitely false, but I'm not definitely mafia? The first paragraph reads like I'm mafia, the last paragraph reads like I'm town.Modconfirmed my ass he THINKS you're town, he doesn't KNOW you're town, plus I see zero evidence of any logs or background conversation. If we let you get away with this and you're mafia we lose the game, we need to lynch Palmar to get rid of any doubt now given the many inconsistencies. What? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Imagine that Palmar and I are both confirmed town. I don't care to talk to anyone who doesn't (at least temporarily) assume that we are both confirmed town at this time. Okay, Vivax did nothing and End of Day to suggest that he's town. He "led" town by not really doing much and asking for a "yolo lynch" on Palmar, after it seemed clear that Mr. Cheesecake wasn't going to be lynched. He never responded to my earlier case on him, which is still valid. He shared many of the same thoughts that I had expressed earlier, yet still called my arguments stupid and wanted to lynch me. You would think that he would read my posts more carefully if he were actually town and scumreading me. I don't see Vivax leading the thread here, I see Vivax being lazy and casually encouraging mislynches (notice how he waited for justanothertownie's response before voting Palmar) without critically reading or trying to solve the game. Mafia team is Vivax, KelsierSC, and deconduo. If that is wrong, next two most likely are justanothertownie and VisceraEyes. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Please save me. Please? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On August 31 2015 12:13 MoosyDoosy wrote: Please, please, please ignore this.Trfel you're hurting my head. Why in the world is Palmar confirmed town? Why are you so ironclad on this fact? Imagine for a moment that I gave you indisputable evidence that I am in fact town, and Palmar is also town. I'm telling you that the scum team is KelsierSC, Vivax, and deconduo. For reasons previously stated, though if you would like me to clarify or further explain anything, I can do so. Do you agree, or do you disagree, and why? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
KelsierSC is confirmed mafia because he voted less than 20 seconds before End of Day. Town simply doesn't do that. It was very intentional. There is absolutely no way that he is town. deconduo It's time I shared my reasons, I've been waiting to see how deconduo's behavior changed, but time has only confirmed my suspicions. Because some of you hate meta, I'll leave the meta for the end. The main section of this post is fairly long. It's for those of you who can't seem to understand my posts, explained in great detail. There is a summary at the end. Looking at Day 1, deconduo does three notable things. First, he votes for MoosyDoosy and then unvotes a day later and says that MoosyDoosy is probably town. I don't think that this is alignment indicative. Second, he says that he doesn't want to lynch justanothertownie because the case against him feels weak, but he says this after the wagon on justanothertownie loses steam (so I also don't think this is very alignment indicative). Third, he supports the Hopeless1der lynch. The rest of his posts are useless/filler. On August 28 2015 03:25 deconduo wrote: Here's the basis of his read on Hopeless1der. Okay, sure. Then he makes a few posts about Hopeless1der:Nope. Mainly because he lurked just as much in TSM and was scum there. Also this is pretty unforgivable: + Show Spoiler + On August 28 2015 04:57 deconduo wrote: ##Vote: Hopeless1der I'm not quite sure how no one is actually voting for him right now. On August 28 2015 05:32 deconduo wrote: Is there any reason to lynch BF over hopeless? Hopeless has been worse on every count as far as I can tell. On August 28 2015 05:35 deconduo wrote: BF has more posts, Hopeless has just come from a game where he lurked as scum, and Hopeless RNGd a vote whereas at least BF jumped on the wagon at the time. On August 28 2015 05:35 deconduo wrote: Though at least hopeless is here now, and posting. On August 28 2015 05:56 deconduo wrote: Then consolidate on hopeless. There's no reason to vote for BF over hopeless: Then he shows up, posts this and fucks off agian: On August 28 2015 06:02 deconduo wrote: Nothing, but I think hopeless is a better lynch today. Yes but at least he's given a read, which hopeless hasn't. On August 28 2015 06:07 deconduo wrote: 1. Same meta as TSM 2. RNG'd a vote 3. Came back to the thread, posted a few things and stuck with the RNG vote. Also add VE to the town list. On August 28 2015 06:33 deconduo wrote: I'd be OK with consolidating on BF, though I still think hopeless is a better lynch. Trfel would be OK with me as well, but might be harder to get votes for. And a few more. You get the idea, though. He makes a lot of posts saying that he'd rather lynch Hopeless1der than boxerfred. So you have deconduo being invested in the game, and pushing for Hopeless1der instead of boxerfred in a reasonable way. What's the problem? 43 minutes before the deadline, deconduo says that he is switching to mobile and should still be around for the deadline. He drops in and makes three posts after this. However, even though Hopeless1der returns to the thread and makes a post 13 minutes before the deadline (a minute before deconduo's final post of the day), and another post a minute later, deconduo doesn't respond to this at all and vanishes. Because deconduo's vote on Hopeless1der is half based on Hopeless1der's meta of not posting as mafia, you would expect him to be interested. Okay, so he was on mobile, he was busy. Something came up, and he couldn't be around for the deadline. What's the problem? Deconduo returns about a day and 12 hours later, at the start of Day 2. He posts this: On August 29 2015 19:35 deconduo wrote: So, he still thinks that Hopeless1der is mafia.If hopeless flips scum (which I'm pretty sure he will) I think this post puts trfel in the towncamp. He was one of the people actually pushing for a hopeless lynch over boxer. Imagine for a moment that you are town!deconduo here, early in Day 2. You have a confident scumread in Hopeless1der, largely due to his meta of not playing as mafia, which you observed last game. You made a bunch of posts trying to convince people to lynch Hopeless1der, and were actually invested in the lynch. Then something came up, and you came back over a day later. You look at the game, and realize that they didn't lynch Hopeless1der, they lynched boxerfred instead, and he flipped town. And you still think that Hopeless1der is mafia. You might be frustrated here, you might be mad here. You might look at the people who supported lynching boxerfred and blame them for the mislynch. But your main priority is to figure out if Hopeless1der did anything to change your scumread on him, your top scumread. Then, you want to shout at people and make them actually lynch Hopeless1der this time. Deconduo doesn't do this. Instead, he makes these two posts: On August 29 2015 19:35 deconduo wrote: And then vanishes until End of Day. He's not actually pushing for Hopeless1der to be lynched at all. He's not using any of the influence provided to him by the cop check, not making his voice heard. He doesn't even bother responding to why I changed my mind on Hopeless1der, which ought to be extremely interesting to him. He eventually ends up switching to Hopeless1der without ever commenting on my explanation.If hopeless flips scum (which I'm pretty sure he will) I think this post puts trfel in the towncamp. He was one of the people actually pushing for a hopeless lynch over boxer. His activity went down after the claimed green check on him, instead of being able to voice his opinions and have people trust him. This is not a town reaction (unless the person in question is perpetually lazy, more on this in the meta section). In Summary For those of you who couldn't follow the large amounts of words above, of which the intention was to try to make this as clear as possible, because people seem to have trouble comprehending my posts. What I'm trying to say is really quite simple. 1. Deconduo did not re-evaluate his top scumread, Hopeless1der, after the Day 1 lynch. He did not seem interested in following up the lynch or pushing Hopeless1der Day 2, despite seeming very invested in lynching Hopeless1der Day 1. This suggests that his desire to lynch Hopeless1der was fake. 2. Deconduo's activity plummeted after people stopped being suspicious of him, and after the green check. He's used the townreads to avoid playing the game instead of to make people listen. Meta This case falls apart if deconduo is actually an extremely lazy player who is more interested in not dying than finding scum, and is willing to use a green check to not read the thread and do nothing. + Show Spoiler + Here's a post from Artanis[Xp] (town) in Tropical Storm Mini Mafia, with regards to deconduo (also town). On August 12 2015 23:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote: He says that deconduo actually believes he is doing something useful, and he's right. Deconduo tried to prevent people from claiming something that could potentially get them killed by mafia, which he believed was extremely important. Deconduo is weird. His posts haven't had any focus. Actually he might be my preferred lynch candidate for today but something really silly is making me hedge, which is this: The arrogance in that even when he hasn't really done much leads me to believe he actually believes he's contributing, so meh. He was lynched Day 1 in this game. He came back and kept posting in the Obs QT, showing an actual interest and investment in the game. Not entirely conclusive, but I don't feel like deconduo would be this lazy as town. He would actually investigate and push things. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On August 31 2015 22:08 MoosyDoosy wrote: Why does my alignment affect how compelling the case is? (actually curious what you're thinking, not criticizing)If I assume that you and Palmar are confirmed town then yes, I would have to say that your case against deconduo is very compelling. (well okay, not criticizing yet, anyway) | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On September 01 2015 04:12 Vivax wrote: This portion is factually incorrect. I did care about the lynch, and I wanted to lynch Vivax. However, as stated, I didn't have any time to really play after Saturday evening.Ideally they would have either claimed it during the day and then steered the lynch where they wanted it to be making use of their confirmed until disproven status. Instead we see Palmar actually not giving a shit about who got lynched while claiming he wasn't a mason, and Trfel not giving a shit until Palmar was about to be lynched. They both agreed that CC was a bad lynch afterwards, yet Trfel only came out with information and posts when Palmar was threatened, not CC. And I did state that I didn't want Mr. Cheesecake to be lynched well before. Vivax is throwing doubt where there shouldn't be and lying because he knows that if the mason claim is believed, mafia loses. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On September 01 2015 09:41 Vivax wrote: Good to know you realize that I am in fact scumreading you.This game is really starting to get me mad cause we could have resolved this mason bullshit on last day and now instead we're stuck with Trfel and Palmar and Trfel keeps trying to push a mislynch on me and noone still is sure whether their claim is true. Would you care to explain why my read is wrong? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On September 01 2015 10:49 Trfel wrote: EBWOP Besides the blue claim.Good to know you realize that I am in fact scumreading you. Would you care to explain why my read is wrong? Which I think is probably true. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On September 01 2015 10:50 MoosyDoosy wrote: I already understand exactly why I claimed mason when I did. It would be pretty terrible for me to do something without having any reasoning behind it at all.do u want to understand why exactly u claimed mason like 10 min in the end of D2? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On September 01 2015 10:55 MoosyDoosy wrote: I strongly suggest you entertain both.then plz enlighten me or i entertain the notion of vivax's blue claim. I think that I mostly believe Vivax's claim. I do think that it's balanced to have two minor roles and masons (limiting the number of shots allows this). Also, with the 14 player 2 kp Night 1 setup, there's a slightly reduced chance of hitting scum on the Day 1 lynch and a slightly increased chance of using investigative night actions against players who are dying Night 1, which helps to balance the game. As for the events surrounding End of Day 2, all I have are real life excuses. With TL going down (combined with church and other things), I only had 45 minutes to read the thread before the deadline (as I stated the night before). I ended up being dragged into some board games and wasn't really able to read or follow the thread. You can see this as I asked for a vote count (despite one already being posted in the voting thread). I only claimed mason when Palmar was the leading wagon, because if Palmar isn't being lynched, there is no need to claim. I did not expect people to actually want to lynch Palmar on a weekend, and I am capable of avoiding being lynched without a mason claim, so I did not want to claim earlier. | ||
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