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On August 01 2015 02:15 Damdred wrote:
What's the mafia motivation in saying fuck you to the people voting them and getting themselves killed
Like right now, it doesn't matter what motivation scum has or hasn't.
What matters is that he has to convince the people voting on him to change their vote or he's toast.
I've clearly outlined what he has to do to begin that process.
Whether he wants to partake or not is completely his choice alone.
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On August 01 2015 02:15 Damdred wrote:
What's the mafia motivation in saying fuck you to the people voting them and getting themselves killed
Also, it doesn't make sense as either alignment.
Both town and scum should to live here, so what he's doing is illogical from both perspectives.
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Some interesting Breshke quotes:
On July 24 2015 09:19 Breshke wrote:
Barakos when you say you dislike rayn for the alibi post do you mean you just dislike it in general or you think it is scummy?
If Barakos means that he thinks it is scummy, I would say that's suspicious, because the post was in fact NAI (rayn's thread entry post, that is). He *should* mean that he just dislikes it in general. This post from Breshke could be giving scum-teammate-Barakos an excuse to clarify which one he meant, before people have much opportunity to say that it is suspicious that Barakos finds rayn's NAI post to be scummy. Scum indicator.
Next, all the stuff where he pushes ruXxar to give a read on me, based on my reaction to the poetry. It occurred to me that maybe ruXxar just wasn't confident in giving me a read based on that reaction, because he has all this "respect" for my game and fully expected that he wouldn't be able to glean anything from my reaction. Breshke brings this up multiple times (trying to get ruXxar to put a read on me) and then decides that he "thinks ruXxar is Scum." When really ruXxar's refusal to comment on me should be NAI, and if Breshke knows we're both Town, he could just be exploring whether or not ruXxar might be open to lynching me. Scum indicator.
Moosy asks Breshke if this is his first game, and he says no, but that he's "still shit." He is later asked how many games he's played. He says 15, but that he's "still horrible." This could be planting the seeds to explain why he won't understand good defenses for Town players, and will instead continue to see them as Scum, later in the game. Scum indicator.
When voting against Barakos, Breshke says it is because he doesn't believe that Barakos was using a reaction test. People said that this wasn't believable partly because Barakos didn't draw any conclusions on some of the people who reacted to it (like rayn, who reacted rather strongly). Whether or not you like Breshke's conclusion here, it shows some consistency in the methods he's using to scum hunt. Town indicator.
When withdrawing his suspicion of ruXxar, he makes no explanation for why. Could be because he doesn't want to backreference the poor reasoning he'd used for the original read. HOWEVER, a Town player might ALSO not want to backreference their own poor reasoning. Scum indicator, but VERY light.
Townreads Sulfurus without explanation. When pushed for an explanation, his explanation is awful. He's been pushing ruXxar and then Barakos and then Moosy, and may have realized he's not really been townreading anyone and probably should. But he townreads Sulfurus with poor reasoning, which certainly leaves open the door for Sulfurus to get lynched anyway. This townread on Sulfurus is illogical enough that I think it is best explained by someone KNOWING Sulfurus is Town, and wanting to townread him, and having to do so in the absence of any ACTUAL indicators that the player is Town. Heavy Scum indicator.
Association Bonus: If Breshke flips Red, I think Sulfurus it makes Sulfurus Town, despite all of the scum-indicative things I've noted from Sulfurus
I think that when he asks Sulfurus for an explanation of Sulf's scumread on me, it is slightly Town-indicative. Yes, he could be trying to get Sulfurus to say something dumb and get himself in trouble. But the line of questioning is more likely to help me than hurt Sulfurus. And Breshke should rather get me mislynched than Sulf, due to the gap in activity level. Slight Town indicator.
Breshke called out Sulfurus for starting with the read on Barakos, when it was the one people would be least interested to hear about. That's exactly what I was thinking, and again, I don't think Sulfurus is the lynch Scum wanted on Day 1. However, since they would settle for practically anyone over Barakos by that point, I can label this only as Slight Town Indicator.
Like Ticktock pointed out, Rels/Sulfurus/Breshke were the 3 players in prime spots for bussing Barakos. Breshke is in one of those 3 spots, in the Day 1 vote count. Scum indicator.
On July 26 2015 19:49 Breshke wrote:
I also like noobking even more now for his post on we should be looking for the most scummy people not the people most likely to bus because the later is stupid.
That makes really good sense for him to say as Scum, when he's sitting in one of the "bussed Barakos" spots, and not one of the people who first pushed Barakos, nor one of the people who just shifted to Barakos at EoD. Scum indicator.
On July 28 2015 20:40 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2015 20:35 Rels wrote:On July 28 2015 20:23 Breshke wrote:
It is possible he is bad town and doing this but more probable he is mafia purely just trying to dodge questions. He also changes his story that he was pressuring me about my case on ruxxar and then at other points says he was talking to me about it because i needed to explain it more.
Want to see quotes on this. This is awkward. He was actually "pressuring me so i would explain it more" So it was both. erm ignore i ever said that bit. #regrets
Most people were not paying any attention while Moosy and Breshke talked past each other. So Breshke really only needs to sell ONE person on an excuse that makes sense, here. But he doesn't even try. Instead, he just up and withdraws half of his case against Moosy. He then says that he still believes Moosy is Scum though, even without that half of the case. This is likely to significantly amplify suspicion of him, but he takes the risk, to keep after his intended lynch target. Heavy Town indicator.
As mentioned before, I hated the post where he said that he was pretty sure the roleblocker MUST turn in an action. It reeks of "Look guys, I can't be on the Mafia team! I don't even know how their roles work!" Scum indicator.
This might sound weird to some people, but I think it is Town-indicative that Breshke waited so long to mention that Moosy's behavior could be indicative of a Godfather hoping to be checked. I feel like if Breshke were Scum, he would have used this weapon against Moosy sooner. Unless he just genuinely hadn't thought of it yet. Slight Town indicator.
I brought this up earlier:
On July 29 2015 15:25 n00bKing wrote:
If Scott goes uncountered on Day 3, then Breshke's suspect list becomes:
#3 - The guy you people just lynched, who flipped Town
#2 - The Cop
#1 - The Cop's green check
Scott has still not yet been counterclaimed. And we have additional reason to think that Scott's green check is indeed a Town player. This would mean the entirety of Breshke's PoE suspect list was Town players. Would make sense, in a game where the Scum lost a teammate Day 1 and then had a failed attack on Night 1. He cannot play for another bus here, he's GOT to have mislynches. Multiple, in a row. Scum indicator.
On July 30 2015 11:11 Breshke wrote:
Also rels i don't think you should be using the fact that some people unvoted scott straight after his cop claim to make them more townie. I don't really think that logic holds up.
Breshke was the next-to-last person to pull his vote off of Scott. So it makes sense that if Breshke is Scum, he doesn't want Town Cred going to the people who acted quickly. However, if Breshke is Town, he also doesn't want suspicion cast on those who didn't move quickly. This was a very interesting post, but I'll call it null.
First post from Breshke after I post my Town Case on myself:
On July 31 2015 17:48 Breshke wrote:
Sulf who is mafia with noobking?
This acts toward keeping me from the Noose, which wouldn't be what Scum wants. Town indicator.
So, this was sloppy. And I'm sure I missed things. But anyway...I count 9 Scum indicators, and 6 Town indicators.
Conclusion: Breshke remains suspicious. But I was right that I would not move him into my Top 2 lynch options today. Those continue to be Sulfurus and NocturneMage. I would not really be ready to go ahead and lynch Breshke unless a certain someone flips Red.
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Like this is basically a no-win situation for n00bking if he's mafia.
There is no secret information that he could reveal right now that would lose us the game.
Absolutely none.
If he tried to make up something he would look bad.
If he claimed cop he would look bad.
He's not answering because he has no answer to give and he just made up this "damaging town" wifom to make us doubt his lynch.
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Lol ok ruxxor. Completely tunneled look at what you said to me. If he would answer you and five you what you want you might vote someone else.
And he doesn't do that he's not playing to survive it doesn't matter because you won't listen to me
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On August 01 2015 02:53 Damdred wrote:
Lol ok ruxxor. Completely tunneled look at what you said to me. If he would answer you and five you what you want you might vote someone else.
And he doesn't do that he's not playing to survive it doesn't matter because you won't listen to me
Look at it from the other side.
Look at town motivation:
Why would town lie or hide information if it will help them survive and lynch scum?
n00bking has the power in his hands to lynch what he and a lot of other people believe is scum.
He's refusing to do that for what reason exactly?
Town has no reason to hide any information at this point. None.
Tell me a reason why town would hide information at this point damdred.
Please I beg you.
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Day 3 Votecount
n00bking (4): ruXxar, scott31337, Rels, Sulfurus
NocturneMage (4): Damdred, disformation, n00bKing, Breshle
Not Voting (1): NocturneMage
n00bKing is set to be lynched!
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Because they are spiteful and bot helpful? Town does things like that all the time.
town lies, hides etc.,
There are hundreds of reasons and it doesn't make someone mafia at all.
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On August 01 2015 03:10 Damdred wrote:
Because they are spiteful and bot helpful? Town does things like that all the time.
town lies, hides etc.,
There are hundreds of reasons and it doesn't make someone mafia at all.
Those are not good reasons at all.
Why does he keep posting?
His posting is basically useless because he's not trying to convince us to not lynch him.
If he's town he should want to do 2 things:
#1) Don't get lynched.
#2) Lynch scum.
If you think he's town you should be mad at him for not trying to accomplish town win condition.
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On August 01 2015 03:10 Damdred wrote:
Because they are spiteful and bot helpful? Town does things like that all the time.
town lies, hides etc.,
There are hundreds of reasons and it doesn't make someone mafia at all.
So you're saying it's ok for town to lie and hide information?
You're joking right?
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So if I switch my vote to NM and he flips town, me or rels will be dead - what are you doing to do tomorrow?
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asking Damdred, disformation, n00bKing, Breshle
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Its just simple facts, town does it every game be it they care to much about being caught. Can't remember everything they say and or can't explain it.
It doesn't matter what he says or explains to you rux you will say he's mafia no matter what. Just admit it.
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Obviously I'm looking at sulf breshke tommorow. Then the remainder and noob in lylo probably
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On August 01 2015 03:20 Damdred wrote:
Its just simple facts, town does it every game be it they care to much about being caught. Can't remember everything they say and or can't explain it.
It doesn't matter what he says or explains to you rux you will say he's mafia no matter what. Just admit it.
Wow damdred... wow.
I can't believe you're saying this.
My mafia radar is going through the roof right now.
You're saying it's ok for town to lie and hide information.
CONFIRM?!
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I'm pretty sure there's a tinfoil missing to winning this game now
and a hard town read is mafia
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Its simple fact, town lies and hides more than mafia. Town just says whatever the hell they want and tries to explain it ad they gom
Mafia does get caught in stories but different.
Ruxxors being an idiot
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On August 01 2015 03:20 Damdred wrote:
Can't remember everything they say and or can't explain it.
It's not what he said though. He said he didn't want to explain it.
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On August 01 2015 03:27 Damdred wrote:
Its simple fact, town lies and hides more than mafia. Town just says whatever the hell they want and tries to explain it ad they gom
Mafia does get caught in stories but different.
Ruxxors being an idiot
... I have no words for this post.
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On the topic of Nocturne Mage:
I'll start with my post about him from Night 1.
n00bKing wrote: Might be a bit higher, if it didn't seem like he can't be paired with either of my highest scumreads. (Hooray for association cases!) Later posts do seem better, but some of the early posts are pretty damn unhelpful. Don't know who mentioned it, but he had a tendency early to just ask people questions about what they thought about someone else's stated opinion. These questions had predictable answers, that would probably be short and not generate much interesting discussion. Asking questions is good. But asking questions like that is bad, because they take up just as much space in your filter (so it looks like you're participating and being inquisitive) but it doesn't actually go anywhere. Happily engages in a worthless discussion about his experience in RL Mafia games, while failing to actually draw conclusions about what is going on.
What I said there about association cases is still true. Why I had trouble pairing him with Rels obviously makes sense if Rels is Town. But I also had trouble pairing him with Sulfurus, and that hasn't changed. I disagree with Damdred that one of Mage/Sulfurus flipping Scum leads directly to the other. Mage flipping Scum leads to someone, and Sulfurus flipping Scum leads to someone else. I am not at all convinced that they lead to each other.
Anyway, that post about Mage includes 1 light Scum indicator and 1 regular Scum indicator. No Town points.
On July 26 2015 04:25 NocturneMage wrote:
Also the reaction test thing makes no sense to me just reading it he holds the same standards for breshke and disformation passing that test when Breshke died more prematurely than disformation.
This is a valid argument, which I don't recall anyone else using. This post also demonstrates that he actually was doing at least SOME of the looking at other games that he kept saying he was. Town indicator.
On July 26 2015 04:25 NocturneMage wrote:
I don't have a problem with voting Barakos, but let me wrap up looking at moosy and see whether he really is worse than Barakos.
Here he sets the stage to check on things, and decide that Moosy should be the lynch instead of Barakos. (Again, Moosy was the player that Scum can try to get lynched in Barakos' place, if they don't want to let him go.) But nope, when he comes back, he decides Barakos is the scummier-looking, between the two, and that's where his vote goes. In fact, he even soft-defends Moosy on Day 1. Town indicator.
NocturneMage was the final vote against Barakos. This is NOT a bussing spot in the voting order, and is probably the single biggest indicator from the entire game that Mage could be Town.
rayn pointed out how awful it was for NocturneMage to make something of the fact that Flexes "had nothing about Sulfurus in his filter." Flexes had nothing about a lot of things in his filter. This has high potential to be "Too scummy for Mage to actually be Scum" but I'm still going to list it in the Scum indicator category.
Alas, I must admit that Rels did something right this game. He made a post showing all of the various instances where Mage has said that he was reading-rereading things. And then he often does not formulate any new opinions after the reading he says he is going to do (and sometimes doesn't come back to post any opinions at all). If he is AFK so much that he keeps getting behind in the thread, and isn't able to post very often, where is he supposed to come up with all the time to re-read filters and read people's play from other games? Scum indicator.
Mage would sometimes come back from those long absences and then talk about something that had happened many pages ago. That would be okay, if he was catching up, and had observations he wanted to share, about things that had been said earlier. But he would consistently fail to provide context, making it extremely difficult to figure out what he was talking about. Especially when he would bring up interactions that were muddied or were largely ignored to begin with. Such as, all that time when Breshke and Moosy were talking past each other. That was one of Mage's favorite things to talk about after the fact, even though it wasn't a topic that interested hardly anyone else, and then he would fail to provide quotes so that we could be reminded of the events he wanted to discuss. This shows me he didn't actually want to spark discussion, he just wanted to make posts. Heavy Scum indicator.
If Mage was really doing all of the reading of other games that he said he had, how come he knows nothing of anyone's meta? He listed off 3 or 4 games that he had followed along with before this one started. And then made indications of reading some of what players did in other games AFTER this one started. And you seem him repeatedly asking other players what they think about someone's meta. "is that a meta read?" "How does that fit with that player's meta? Is that normal for that player?" but despite all of what he's PERSONALLY seen of other player's meta, he does not himself make meta-based arguments. Like, ever! Scum indicator.
General lack of activity/participation fits with what you often see from newbie Scum. Yes, you sometimes see it from newbie Town as well. But for newbie Scum, there's actually incentive. Slight Scum indicator, which Damdred has adequately explained before.
7 Scum indicators, 3 Town indicators. (And only one strong Town indicator, which was the timing of his vote on Barakos). This is a significantly worse ratio than I saw with Breshke. So no, not moving Breshke up. And with no votes on Sulfurus, my vote stays right where it is.
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EPT
