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On July 16 2015 07:21 Tictock wrote:
He has made several promises to us to give us more , and has failed to do so. The only decent posts he made where the ones where he was talking about D1 VCA stuff, which I think WP or n00b pointed out was an easy post to make as that was the general sentiment at the time.
What do you think about MD now HtS?
Yeah the VCA post there was pretty easy, as for MD, I'd have to assume right now no change from the vote alone, because his vote had zero bearing on the outcome, it wouldn't help or hurt as either alignment.
Ninjavoting sucks so it's not a point in his favour but I'm more concerned about the timing of the vote with anyone because you can trace timing to motivation.
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Offhand
More likely scum from vote analysis alone:
Grokken - AFK vote
WannaPlay - hammered him
scott31337 - possible distancing if TJH was town
Less likely scum
Tictock - tried separate wagon
not sure
Silentwarrior - doublecheck reads d1
TJHuggins - afked without voting. Could be tactical since he did acknowledge that people could get away with one no-vote at EoD1
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DT, if any should check any of SW, Grokken, WP or Scott.
If the vig did not shoot N1, I would shoot either Scott or TJH.
Going to think harder.
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On July 16 2015 07:44 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I did not ninja vote and I did not change my vote. Please change your list before you raise all hell against me Half the Sky. Go the goddamn voting thread for the rest of you people to confirm this. I did not change my vote off TJHuggins.
On July 16 2015 07:00 Onegu wrote: Day 2 Final Vote Count GhandiEAGLE(7): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay ,Ticktock, MoosyDoosyTJHuggins(2): Noobking, scott31337 Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE Not Voting(1): , TJHuggins Reminder Voting is done here.
It is mandatory to vote. Not doing so will result in a warning a second non vote will result in a modkill and action taken against you in the Mafia ban thread.
Currently GhandiEAGLE is set to be lynched with 7 votes.
Day 1 ends in PLEASE REMEMBER THAT IT IS MANDATORY TO VOTE.
Moosy, I pulled my counts STRAIGHT FROM THE MOD. Look at the top of the page.
Then the mod made an error. I am sorry, I looked at the top of the page of this thread.
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REVISED TABLES
Assumptions - Sulfurus wagon was a pure wagon.
Day 2 final vote corrected - MD stays on TJH
Starting point VCA
Day 1
Sulfurus(4): Half the Sky, Fidei86, Kelsier SC, Noobking <--------likely pure wagon
MoosyDoosy(3): Grokken, TJHuggins, Sulfurus
NydusHerMain (1): silentwarrior
Fidei86(1): NydusHerMain
Not Voting(4): WonnaPlay, scott31337, GhandiEAGLE. MoosyDoosy
Day 2 <4h to EoD
GhandiEAGLE(4): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior
TJHuggins(4): Ticktock, Noobking, MoosyDoosy, WonnaPlay
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
Not Voting(2): scott31337, TJHuggins
Day 2 <40m to EoD
GhandiEAGLE(5): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay
TJHuggins(4): Noobking, MoosyDoosy, scott31337
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
scott31337 (1): Tictock
Not Voting(1): TJHuggins[/QUOTE]
Day 2 EoD
GhandiEAGLE(6): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay ,Ticktock,
TJHuggins(3): Noobking, scott31337, MoosyDoosy
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
Not Voting(1): TJHuggins
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On July 16 2015 07:30 Half the Sky wrote:
Offhand
More likely scum from vote analysis alone:
Grokken - AFK vote
WannaPlay - hammered him - trace reads - is he blending in?
scott31337 - possible distancing if TJH was town
Less likely scum
Tictock - tried separate wagon
not sure
Silentwarrior - doublecheck reads d1
TJHuggins - afked without voting. Could be tactical since he did acknowledge that people could get away with one no-vote at EoD1
No changes in my points or my blue recommendations.
Medic, if there is one, do as you please. I think top towns should be obvious.
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Ugh, alright, revising the tables a THIRD time.....
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REVISED TABLES
Assumptions - Sulfurus wagon was a pure wagon.
Day 2 final vote corrected - MD stays on TJH
Starting point VCA
Day 1
Sulfurus(4): Half the Sky, Fidei86, Kelsier SC, Noobking <--------likely pure wagon
MoosyDoosy(3): Grokken, TJHuggins, Sulfurus
NydusHerMain (1): silentwarrior
Fidei86(1): NydusHerMain
Not Voting(4): WonnaPlay, scott31337, GhandiEAGLE. MoosyDoosy
Day 2 <4h to EoD
GhandiEAGLE(4): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior
TJHuggins(4): Ticktock, Noobking, MoosyDoosy, WonnaPlay
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
Not Voting(2): scott31337, TJHuggins
Day 2 <40m to EoD
GhandiEAGLE(5): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay
TJHuggins(4): Noobking, MoosyDoosy, scott31337
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
scott31337 (1): Tictock
Not Voting(1): TJHuggins[/QUOTE]
Day 2 EoD
GhandiEAGLE(7): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay ,Ticktock, Noobking,
TJHuggins(2): scott31337, MoosyDoosy
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
Not Voting(1): TJHuggins
7-2-1 vote heavily indicates mislynch.
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Grokken is looking a LOT worse here as the first vote on GE - scum have to decide early on whether to ML or bus. Check when he voted relative to the scumreads coming in. That is critical for ultimately determining his alignment.
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On July 16 2015 08:16 TJHuggins wrote:
As in - next day phase.
Nights are not silent in forum mafia, I know they are silent in video mafia. You should get your thoughts out here if you can do so now.
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On July 16 2015 08:22 TJHuggins wrote:This was actually one of the major reasons I put him as #2 on my mafia list on day 1. I thought that it was probable he was caught and a lie and was tying to "talk" his way out of it.
You mean #3? I know a point of contention with you was you had Sulfurus as #2....when you didn't previously mention him. But carry on....that's minor.
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MD, I'm off to bed. It's past midnight here :/
Stupid timezones :/
Fidei, I know RL is keeping you busy - yes I talk/play dota with him outside the game so I do have OGI - but if you could lend your voice a bit it would be grand <3
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On July 16 2015 08:34 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 08:23 MoosyDoosy wrote:On July 16 2015 08:16 TJHuggins wrote:
Tomorrow. If you die where does that leave us? I would like it if you could post it now for me and HtS to dissect. TJ might be a good person for Medic to visit tonight...Just sayin.
Why do you think he's town?
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Actually Tictock......disregard that last question of mine.
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Good morning,
Spent about an hour writing a lengthy VCA. Bear with me, the wall of text is painful but....
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REVISED VCA v4 - Analysis through d2
Assumptions
Sulfurus wagon was a pure wagon given the nature and timing of all the votes.
Day 2 final vote corrected - NK on GE
Day 1
Sulfurus(4): Half the Sky, Fidei86, Kelsier SC, Noobking
MoosyDoosy(3): Grokken, TJHuggins, Sulfurus
NydusHerMain (1): silentwarrior
Fidei86(1): NydusHerMain
Not Voting(4): WonnaPlay, scott31337, GhandiEAGLE. MoosyDoosy
From Day 1, it's widely sorted that the Sulfurus wagon is almost certainly town unless either of Fidei or n00bKing yoloed it but there is no such evidence either way to prove that they have either in their reads or votes.
On the MD wagon, it is highly unlikely that the entire scumteam hid on the MD wagon. There was reasoning for TJH to be mafia as he voted MD with Sulfurus in second without mentioning the latter and Grokken's post seemed alright (among other things that I hashed in my case). Both silentwarrior and NHM (now Ticktock) solo voted, but they are both unlikely to be scum.
I am willing to bet one of them is though - SW has a distancing issue along with potential association issues with Sulfurus (aforementioned) and gave an argument for NHM that he could have for Sulfurus. NHM voted for Fidei very suspiciously before he departed the game.
We know GE is confirmed, so he's green.
MD is likely green as Sulfurus' vote has made him liable for lynch, prior to n00bking hammering him. More on this later.
Scott is a policy lynch for D1 as he's done jack all, and WP is a null read at best largely because of the parroting, though towards the end of D1 he does appear to be slightly more towny. The no vote itself however is NAI.
Grokken was pinged out early in the day for changing his read on MD to reflect thread sentiment but remarked it was a mistake. A few people are skeptical of this and another potential issue is that his postcount is low which is generally a scumtell for newbie scum struggling to make reads. His list post otherwise isn't generally terrible though and I had him at null through D1 thinking he'd also AFK voted.
Day 2 <4h to EoD
GhandiEAGLE(4): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior
TJHuggins(4): Ticktock, Noobking, MoosyDoosy, WonnaPlay
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
Not Voting(2): scott31337, TJHuggins
Grokken votes GE very early in the day before Fidei gets his vote down and scum often in this situation have to decide whether to ML or bus.
We don't know TJH's alignment but if TJH is town then he's in the best position to say where he thinks the suspicious votes are. That said I'm going to fill Grokken in red, given this and the d1 post on flipping MD to red. An additional issue is that if he believed that GE was mafia he would have engaged him more as a townie and tried to sort out the alignment. He was pretty quick to put down the vote irregardless of his read on Fidei.
Fidei gets his vote off early starting a second train on someone he finds suspicious, which is a sign of town. He does AFK the second half of the cycle, but for OGI reasons I know that is not alignment indicative.
n00bKing who hammered Sulfurus with scant time remaining is almost certainly town. Barring further evidence I will also colour him green.
I'm also going to colour MD in as green because although he's not fully out of the woods on behaviour alone, it is also highly improbable that if both he and Sulfurus were scum that Sulfurus would have said anything to expose himself. His strategy was breadcrumbed and had 6 votes on him prior to me starting the train which is more than enough for at least 1 scummer to hide. Additionally he's engaging the people that he's suspicious of through n2 so I'm going to say he's town.
Tictock is a bit of an enigma with the votes. He votes TJHuggins right at the daypost or soon after it. If TJH is town, this is somewhat problematic using the scum ML/bus decision tree and the predecessor vote. So we have to look at his voteswitches and potential motivations on them - more on that later. Neutral from the start for now.
SW votes GE and is the first hammer on GE. The solo vote on NHM was a problem, so we look at his read on GE. The timing is just after midway through d1, 23h left, so no issues here. The read on GE is alright though I had reservations on the top half of his long post. It would also make sense for him here to NOT vote TJH as he's townreading TJH - the read I felt at that time was wrong but did not in itself make him scummy. Additionally the effort is quite much for a newbie scum, so I am going to say a very tentative townlean. I very well could be wrong here but taking into account SW's responses on the solo voting, it could all just be newb play and not scum play.
WonnaPlay brings TJH up to four votes. This can be viewed as two ways - as mafia he makes it hard for town to get a decent lynch off, but the same can be said for SW at this point in time. So we have to look at his read basis and the timing. With about 13h left he joined NK in the pressure vote with the caveat he'd switch back to GE if nothing changed. He follows up on this 2h before EoD. Given his d1 into early d2 posting though, I'm seeing a devil-may-care attitude about getting his thoughts out there which indicates town. He's not terribly concerned about how he'll look and mentioned that he'd vote for pressure despite the TJH read not being top. Also as he scumreads Scott, he switches off the wagon that Scott joined. Most likely town, not the strongest read, but that's the overall picture I'm getting. Earnest newbie town.
Day 2 <40m to EoD
GhandiEAGLE(5): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay
TJHuggins(4): Noobking, MoosyDoosy, scott31337
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
scott31337 (1): Tictock
Not Voting(1): TJHuggins
Here's where things start to get interesting. Tictock starts a wagon on Scott. The idea is a good one, but there's just one problem here - lack of followthrough. He cannot engage an AFK Scott, which is okay, but in his posting he should encourage votes on Scott further than the initial vote. He does switch his vote later on after the train fails to gain traction. It does raise the question though whether he tried to look towny after the fact but at the same time he did insist pressure voting Scott. It's a reasonable concept from a town standpoint.
Now WP switches his vote from TJH to GE, thus effectively hammering GE. I explained before that he qualified his vote and that GE was at the top of his list so this vote is in line with his reads. No problem here.
Day 2 Final
GhandiEAGLE(7): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay ,Tictock, Noobking,
TJHuggins(2): scott31337, MoosyDoosy
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
Not Voting(1): TJHuggins
7-2-1 vote heavily indicates mislynch. So we can draw the conclusions that scum generally vote at the very beginning of the train or sometimes at the very end to hide their intentions. Tictock's vote here as he was late to the party (not his fault) is further compounded by his predecessor's suspcious AFK solo vote on Fidei who is almost certainly town and his scum reads aren't original on either of GE or TJH so exercising caution is the way to go in the event he's sheeping poor reads. If TJH is town, the voting further implicates Tictock. (Hence the name in italics.)
The hammer vote is problematic only if it is made too close to EoD. WP's vote was made approximately 2 hours prior to then and it made sense with what he was planning to do. WP placing his vote back on TJH would not only have not made sense but keeping the vote too close would have made scum want to manipulate the vote, though here they did not need to.
The following are implicated more heavily through VCA (from most to least) - Grokken, Tictock (if TJH is town), scott31337 (hammer vote on TJH prior to departure), silentwarrior (based on D1 vote).
Scott could be mafia but per vote analysis he is actually less likely to be mafia. The thing that irks me is that he AFKed his vote without explanation and he's had no prior read on TJHuggins. Given the number of people willing to vote TJH, this is reckless at best as a townie and horribly scummy at worst, given the timing it's not terribly obvious. One thing is pretty clear though, given where the votes were when Scott afked, it's a decent bet that TJH and Scott aren't on the same team.
WP's hammer was not made at a critical timing so if he should be for mafia, this wouldn't be it. Additionally at that time TJH could have been countervoted given the number of people willing to vote either, and the read was not incongruent with his prior stance.
TJH as he failed to vote, and was hampered due to RL, his no-vote in d2 is NAI but now he's in the best position to tell us who could be suspicious - if he's town.
Nightaction Recommendations
Detective: 1) Grokken, 2) SW, 3) Tictock, 4) TJHiggins
Caveat: I would NOT check Scott if you think there's a vig in this setup - he should be getting shot, so consider any of Grokken, Tictock, SW or if you are unsure of WP, then him, but I am thinking WP might be green here. A check on Scott should have been done d1 and if you haven't done it now you may want to exercise caution if the vig held his shot, which could happen in a newbie game.
Vigilante: Scott, Scott, Scott. Vig a scummy lurker who is least likely to help town (if he's town) By far, this person would be Scott. Shoot Scott. No, you should have done that yesterday 
Medic: I would say any of the trio of Fidei, n00bking, or myself. Use your judgement.
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Comments/questions/competing thoughts....I'm ridiculously busy at work today, but will try and get to things either around lunch or sometime in the afternoon (EU time).
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EPT
