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Right now I'd be fine withh lynching either Ghandi or TJ today.
MD and Scott fall into somewhat null territory but with slight townreads. Scott made that one post where he put everyone on the Sulf wagon as town. Scum need to get town to lynch town, so listing that many people as town seems like a bad move for scum to make. Its not strong, but its enough for me to lean a little more town on Scott.
I need to filter dive SW as I have no idea about him yet, probably wont get a chance till after I get home though.
My town circle is the 3 remaining people who voted for Sulf. Probably never going to lynch these people:
HtS
n00b
Fidei
I'm still reading Grok as town also, but it isn't nearly as strong as the other 3.
Hope I didnt forget anyone.
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Stuck over by the Z gates since its international. Was looking for a charging station for my gameboy but dont have the right voltage adaptor...
Hopefully there are some decent movies on the flight. On the way out here I watched the entire Hobbit trilogy, was kinda nice to see all 3 movies in one sitting.
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Well thats the thing isn't Fidei, Scott is still a pure policy lynch atm.
Pretty silly to lynch him when we both agree there are better targets. I'm reading him a little more town atm, but honestly the only game I played with him and he was Scum he dissapeared halfway through D1 due to loosing his internet. We got a bit lucky in policy lynching him D1 that game and I can't say I know his scum meta at all based on that.
Right now I'm fine giving him more time to pick his game up here. I assume he bit off more than he expected joining the Gaiden game, which was doing something like 100pages per day phase last I checked. So I can understand his weak posting here.
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On July 14 2015 19:21 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2015 19:20 Tictock wrote:
Stuck over by the Z gates since its international. Was looking for a charging station for my gameboy but dont have the right voltage adaptor...
Hopefully there are some decent movies on the flight. On the way out here I watched the entire Hobbit trilogy, was kinda nice to see all 3 movies in one sitting. You can buy adaptors in terminal 2, so I'm sure you can dig them out in terminal 1 if you look hard enough...
And pay Airport prices for Electronics? No thanks.
Currently posting on an iPad which has several games on it plus I have a book I have yet to crack open,
I also am smuggling a large quantity of swiss chocolate, so if it comes to it I can break into that and ride the chocolate high all the way home :p
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On July 14 2015 19:28 Fidei86 wrote:
That's fair enough, I suppose. I also don't think he's been very active in Gaiden, so he might have some RL issues going on. It doesn't exonerate him by any stretch, and I would still policy lynch him, but you've talked me down from actively pushing it for now.
I stopped following Gaiden when I saw I was more than 150 pages behind, lol. So no comment regarding scotts posting there.
Given that HtS was roleblocked and there was no 2nd kill N1 I'm thinking we are in a Doc/Cop setup. So scott would be a solid Cop check if I'm right about that. The roleblock not being stacked with NK should mean there is no veteren. However, Setup speculation is pretty WIFOM however so prob best to not go down that thinking too far.
HtS can attest that my setup/role speculation has been very poor in the past as well, lol.
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Ok about to board my flight, see you all in ~10 hours.
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Back home and catching up.
On July 15 2015 03:00 Half the Sky wrote:
Yeh sorry.....I'm working until 2200. I'm getting hosed this week prior to flying out to NYC.
But I will put aside some time to post.
Largely the TLDR version is that Ghandi looks significantly worse, Scott needs to fill in the gaps with his scumreads, his fear read on me is normal considering that he was on a scumteam where I (more or less) carried, and TJH is still poor, Grokken is slightly better, just skimming I need to get a firmer read on SW, WP and Tictock, the last of whom is concerning from a fear read (read: Holy Guardians) standpoint.
The real question for me is whether I want to lynch TJH or Ghandi.
WP seems okay for a newbie though. SW is the one I had a prior concern on.
I observed that game and I want to cross compare points from that game, but from what I recall, the big problem was that you had milo who was guilty of TMI, Chocolate and Templar were too easy to lynch because they WERE pretty scummy and then Damdred and VE were both playing suboptimally and Scott was also easily mislynched. So basically in this game the way to prevent that with any potential player is if the town stays cohesive it will be harder for scum to hide. There was a Dutch newbie who was playing pretty well enough to not get MLed (in fact he got NKed N2 which was weird in of itself) and ritoky was also doing well but those two were offed pretty quickly.
In a game where town plays suboptimally it will be much harder, based on meta you have to find out whether a player really believes someone is scum or is just trying to push an easy mislynch. Right now there aren't many standing out from the crowd so I'm thinking at this point in time Tic would be an easy read.
If there's something you recall from HG that jumps out to you regarding Tictock shout. I do need to look at him in detail.
Aww, it's oddly good to hear you have a fear read on me due to the HG game. You earlier stated you thought I'd be an easy read since you coached me in the game before HG.
2 things. First town has a huge leg up from where HG started. In that game town managed to Mislynch their only blue role and then had to go forward without any assistance from role info. Second, you guys managed to catch Sulf as the GF D1 this game. Which not only means town is in a solid place but if there is a Cop we can trust their checks.
Past that you get no help from me on how to read my meta ^.^ To be honest I'm not sure I know myself.
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On July 15 2015 08:50 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2015 09:29 GhandiEAGLE wrote:On July 14 2015 09:24 TJHuggins wrote:
I am dealing with someone that is taking priority in real life right now so I do not have time to write out a big post. I will give the essential information that I can provide to town tomorrow. probably.
By essential information is that a blue claim? Or just something your saying. I don't know, but I wanna find out!  ##Vote: TJHugginsWould love to see some more votes on TJ, just to push him into carrying through with posting his "essential information."
Heh, I was thinking the exact opposite right now n00b...
Was wondering if the votes shifted off TJ if he would follow up on that or not.
Since you just put reminded everyone of that post I'll leave my vote on TJ with ya to push for that info as well. As I mentioned earlier I'm also totally ok with the Ghandi lynch as well. Ghandi's last post pushing Grok didn't do much to change my read on him.
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On July 15 2015 08:55 silentwarrior wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2015 08:41 Half the Sky wrote:On July 15 2015 08:37 n00bKing wrote:
I don't think it's that big of a red flag. Sulfurus offered very little to take a stance on. I could see a new player looking at Sulfurus' filter and thinking "there is nothing here to work with." This is a decent point. He was a solo voter and having done too many VCAs to count I might be a little biased since he solo voted, but newbies probably don't have the concept of town consolidation down either, at least not yet. I didn't solo vote at the time i voted, noobking changed his vote. But I don't understand, what so bad with solovoting?
The issue with solo voting is that it makes it harder to look at vote counts after a flip. Ideally you want 2 solid wagons so that when you hit on scum you can start to figuer out which players on the opposing wagon are likely scum and which, if any, are scum bussing a teammate.
I'm pretty guilty of throwing my vote out solo in past newbie games, so I understand the temptation to ignore the majority and vote for your own reads. However if you think about it all it really does it make it easier for scum to swing the votes in their favor.
Maybe HtS can answer a little better, also I'm sure there is someplace on the interwebs that has in depth talk about what is good for voteing patterns as town.
My counter question to get you thinking about it more, what do you think could be good about solovoting?
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On July 15 2015 04:29 Half the Sky wrote:
I think the lynch today should be either of TJH or Ghandi. Percentage play it might be safer to lynch Ghandi based on his tentative read on TJH and then if the flip holds true then go after TJH unless there is stronger evidence for another player based on the flip - I know Grokken is saying Scott is liable and I'll comment on that shortly but you have to also connect Scott's filter to Ghandi's to also make that association. (This does not make Grokken mafia btw)
But unless there is an overriding reason you always side with percentage play analysis and Sulfurus didn't leave too much behind post-lynch. Whether you believe Scott or TJH is the final mafia you have to go with percentage play.
##unvote
##vote GhandiEAGLE
I overall agree with your post here (as with most of your posts this game) HtS. However I'm wondering if you could explain what you mean by percentage play here.
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On July 15 2015 05:24 GhandiEAGLE wrote:Right now, I'm still thinking Grokken is the scummiest. Main reason is right here Show nested quote +On July 14 2015 08:33 Grokken wrote:
I think Fidei might be on to something, Ghandis post about MD is just rehashed arguments, he doesn't bring anything new to the table. He is also acting very defensively in the last few posts. He also said he didn't actually think MD is mafia, but still wants to policy-lynch him? I think we should try to lynch the mafia instead.
##vote GhandiEAGLE Acting defensively is something a lot of people would do when suddenly accused of being mafia; to me it's not really good proof unless the person is doing it an extreme amount, which I wasn't. Bringing something new to the table isn't something you did either in this post, so unless you're calling yourself scum, rehashing what other people have said isn't really a good reason to suspect (necessarily). Thirdly, I said that I didn't want to lynch Moosy until Day 3. The reason I voted for him was to get him talking more and getting him into the game. But disagreeing with your points isn't what's scummy to me. What's scummy is that you jumped on the first bandwagon that had nothing to do with supposedly likely scum, TJ. You issued a short, uninformative paragraph, and then immediately voted for me before even the original accuser, Fidei, did. To me this just seems like opportunistic play that would side yourself with a clear town, give you little to no culpability when I turn up town after a lynch, and still allow you to have a time in your filter where you seemed proactive in a town role, so as to be another defense later. That seems scummy to me. Additionally, you held a vote on Moosy. You said it was because you weren't present at the final vote, but I have no reason to believe this. A lot of other people can be held to this too, so you're not alone here; however, it doesn't help you. I'm more or less in the dark about who the scummers are, but as far as my reads go you're the scumm iest. Also it's pretty safe to say attempting to get Moosy to participate didn't work out at all. Meh. ##Vote: Grokken
This is a pretty bad post imo, and the reasons to vote for Grok are flimsy at best.
Acting defensively is something a lot of people would do when suddenly accused of being mafia
That is about the only statement that I totally agree with. Town can, and should, defend themselves against a push just as much as Scum will want to.
Bringing something new to the table isn't something you did either in this post, so unless you're calling yourself scum, rehashing what other people have said isn't really a good reason to suspect (necessarily).
This seems to be Ghandi's main point, but the bolded part really only seems to be included to open up his next point. Otherwise he doesn't back up when he thinks rehashing is a scum tell.
What's scummy is that you jumped on the first bandwagon that had nothing to do with supposedly likely scum, TJ. You issued a short, uninformative paragraph, and then immediately voted for me before even the original accuser, Fidei, did.
So in one paragraph Ganhdi says that rehashing other peoples points isn't a good way to scum read people, then goes ahead and makes Grok's sheep on Fedei his main reason for this scum read. Whats the differentiating factor here? When is it ok and when is is scummy?
Also the part I bolded here is funny wording. Ghandi isn't saying that Grok is voting according to his own reads (which would be a scum tell) but that Grok not voting with what is the thread sentiment is scummy. That makes little sense to me. It also is worded in such a way to suggest Ghandi doesn't really think that TJ is scum, yet in his last posts mentioning TJ he seemed to be scumreading him.
The last paragraph about Grok voting for MD D1 is meh. First off we we don't know MD's alignment yet so the people voting for him are not at all scummy for doing so, it really should be if Grok's vote matches up with his EoD reads not just who he voted for, especially when we don't know the alignment of who he voted for (in this case MD).
I'm more or less in the dark about who the scummers are, but as far as my reads go you're the scummiest.
I will give Ghandi credit that Grok was his top scum read in his last reads post here. However saying that Grok is the scummiest player atm and that he has no other scum reads right now just continues to scream mafia to me. This whole post honestly reads to me like a forced read to "bring something new to the table".
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@ Ghandi
What is it that is making you think TJ might be town?
Also, in regards to this statement
rehashing what other people have said isn't really a good reason to suspect (necessarily)
Whats the "necessarily"? When do you think it is ok for people to rehash what others say and when isn't it?
I realize in my last post I was possibly over simplifying by assuming rehashing what others say is more or less the same as sheeping someone.
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Pretty sad that there has been such little posting since I went to bed.
Like HtS pointed out I'm not happy that Scott posted this
On July 15 2015 07:18 scott31337 wrote:Yayy I'm dead in the other game so I can concentrate on this one now - I'll do some buttkicking tonight after house cleaning.
Only to follow up with a no explanation vote on TJ... That definitely is worthy of a scum read right there. Still think I'd rather deal with Scott tomorrow since there are more active scummy looking players right now.
Also TJ has effectively disappeared from the game...
This has got to be the lowest activity game I've seen, It's kinda sickening.
I would really like to hear from TJ before EoD, but I'm equally tempted to swing the hammer back over to GE atm... Still the way GE has semi-defended TJ and tried to shift votes away from him all day has me fairly certain they are the scum team so I don't really care which gets lynched atm.
Also thanks for trying to explain there HtS, not sure I fully get it after one read though. I think I get the general idea so I'll just mull it over a little and see if it doesn't make more sense to me later on.
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I am happy that we have almost everyone voting today, and that we are pretty much all consolidated on 2 wagons.
Will make for some great VCA later on.
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Welp less than 4 hours to go.
I feel like things are boreing atm.
Lets make them less boring.
##Unvote
##Vote: scott31337
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In the off chance that we are on the complete wrong track here I have a tinfoil hat theory that might become relevant later.
1 Hour to go and still no sign of TJ...
Are we all happy with the choices we have made today?
Also... that mind-meld from Hts and n00b. Exactly my thoughts on GE's post there so I'm thankful for not having to articulate them ^.^
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Ehh clearly nobody was into my shenenigans play.
##Unvote
##Vote: GhandiEagle
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Ugh.. that really sucks.
GE you said it yourself that you were being scum read for playing badly, so you should have fought more to explain to us your reads and try harder to prove you are town. Not just semi-roll over and make one post pushing your scum read. You never bothered to respond to why we didn't like your case on Grok, you never answered the questions I posted to you, and the point you made about your scott read was weak for the reasons HtS and n00b pointed out.
TJ is in no way off the hook, and now Scott looks much worse and needs to really step it up if he is town.
I kinda get what WP was saying about swapping off TJ to GE, it was kinda my thinking as well. Still you guys probably shouldn't just write off our vote switches.
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Oh MD ninja voted did he?
MD we need to start hearing about your reads man. You've been a terrible & unhelpful all game long and now it looks like you setup a last minuet vote switch to GE.
Actually MD is probably the best lynch tomorrow if he does not explain himself in solid detail. I would never bring him into MyLo or LyLo with the way he's been playing.
Scott is in that same boat, so between the 2 of them.
TJ at least had decent content D1.
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On July 16 2015 07:13 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 07:07 Tictock wrote:
TJ is in no way off the hook, and now Scott looks much worse and needs to really step it up if he is town.
I kinda get what WP was saying about swapping off TJ to GE, it was kinda my thinking as well. Still you guys probably shouldn't just write off our vote switches. Scott could have tried to distance himself from that vote given that a lot of people were scumreading him. He is experienced enough to know this. But it's realllllyyyy wifomy though and extremely high risk (assuming TJH is scum) given that scum are already down a player and he wouldn't stand a chance if he was the last scummer. I think Scott is actually LESS likely to be scum here from a VCA standpoint. He could be, yes, but less likely. Of course if TJH is town then Scott looks significantly worse.
Ehh, I see where you are coming from here, but to me Scott looks worse than TJ right now.
He has made several promises to us to give us more , and has failed to do so. The only decent posts he made where the ones where he was talking about D1 VCA stuff, which I think WP or n00b pointed out was an easy post to make as that was the general sentiment at the time.
What do you think about MD now HtS?
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EPT
