On December 23 2014 05:34 Holyflare wrote:Table of Contents -
(click to go to relevant section)
PrefaceSection 1 - The ReadsSection 2 - The Conclusions
plz nolynch
PrefaceI thought I'd make a nicely formatted post with a collection of all my thoughts. It might get a little intense for you people that don't like to read the thread. It might blow your mind with information that you didn't think existed. You may get a little jaded and think "how the hell can he think that!" but at least give it a read because there's things that have been slipping by that people have not noticed. People that weren't even considered to be mafia that may actually be mafia after all. Hopefully this post will break it down for you.
I'm putting in a considerable amount of time into this post so don't throw it all away just because you're convinced I'm mafia because of useless crap being pushed by lazy people that aren't reading the game or people that are actually mafia (explanation on last point later). If there are 4 mafia left then you can absolutely not lynch me today for information because today could well be lylo.
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Section 1 - The Reads (click names for filters)
Half the SkySomewhat of an unspoken enigma in this game, Half the Sky has been under the radar for a considerable portion of the game but almost
never been pushed (until last night by me/vivax/sl). I know that i'm somewhat responsible for that, being lazy and in the limelight for centuries but that's no excuse for someone to skate on by and not be pressured like Half the Sky (HTS) has achieved.
Her entry into the game is somewhat questionable now that bunnies has flipped town and I honestly forgot entirely about it. Seemingly everyone else did too.
Show nested quote +On December 09 2014 08:52 Half the Sky wrote:On December 09 2014 08:10 27ninjabunnies wrote:Alright, so here is how it goes boys (and possible other girls?).
You should be glad that I was rerolled into the game! You know why? Because I am amazing, and will lead town to an unbeatable victory!
That being said. RNG is absolutely terrible. If you can't scum hunt, you don't belong in my game
However, Templar is more likely town for that nonsense.
Also, I have a hot date in an hour, and prob won't be back on again until the morning, so let's make some progress!
Greetings everyone! 27NB, I'm also female, join the club and
I drew town as well, so victory together!
Good luck and have fun with your date. As for me, well, shopping for my significant other is done and dusted. Some years it's easier than others.
Kelsier, can you please explain the Scrooge claim post? Agreed with HF, what are you seeing in this?
This post can now be seen in such a manor to appear like HTS KNEW that bunnies was town and slipped accordingly. She tried to explain that it was just her saying that she was female too but that is most definitely not what the post states. She effectively dodged the question about saying she was town too by ignoring it.
Show nested quote +On December 09 2014 09:03 Half the Sky wrote:On December 09 2014 08:56 KelsierSC wrote:
hts how do you know 27nb is town
I don't lol, that was mainly an introduction to her saying possible other girls. I read her first post, and then just now stumbled into the whole discussion of her comment on lurkers and such that is being debated right now.
Now I had to read all those posts a few times, but I can see where Holyflare is coming from.
Slam, no you are not creepy.
The rest of her early filter is an excellent display of sheeping sentiment and posts that have already been stated and using them as her own reads, it's not much to go on in terms of the scheme of things but it's a case of "tell me something that I haven't heard before" syndrome where all the posts about reads are super obvious ones like me trying to push forward the game, kita looking like he's trying to solve the game, froggy "has 2 posts". None of it is analytical and when it does get
slightly analytical it's based entirely on what other people said.
Show nested quote +On December 09 2014 22:42 Half the Sky wrote:On December 09 2014 22:23 Xatalos wrote:
Half the Sky: do you have other scumreads besides 27ninjabunnies?
Yes, I do.
My town reads seem very straightforward from everyone I've evaluated last night: Holyflare, Rasputin (rsoultin), Damdred, kitaman27 (who seems to be picking apart things as he should), you also appear to be doing the same atm.
Null - Froggy (one post discussing policy and that's it), Bats (retracted his previous argument as others had the same opinion), Vivax (talking about Froggy)
Null leaning scum - OWS - don't understand his posts, the SL lynch posts I believe were because SL was posting one-liner fluff but after that it was all one word posts.
Scum - 27NB and Kush for reasons I've explained.
I have to look into GlowingBear and Templar and a few others more. LS was null prior to his latest post updated with reads.
The point is it's entirely not hard to do what she has done day 1 as mafia. It's also not exclusively scummy, as i'm sure people will be jumping with joy to point out but it's a great way for mafia to blend in.
A better point to note for her day 1 is her progression of main scum reads and especially where her vote ended on day 1:
Show nested quote +On December 11 2014 08:01 marvellosity wrote:
Finished Counting For Today
ritoky (1): 27ninjabunnies, kushm4sta, Fecalfeast
27ninjabunnies (11): batsnacks, The_Templar, Fecalfeast, Holyflare, batsnacks, Half the Sky, sicklucker, kitaman27, liancourt, Vivax, Koshi, Alakaslam, Xatalos, Tubesock, Tubesock, Trfel, Fecalfeast
Half the Sky (0): batsnacks, Xatalos, Koshi
The_Templar (2): GlowingBear, froggynoddy
sicklucker (0): rsoultin, ObiWanShinobi
ObiWanShinobi (0): rsoultin
Vivax (1): Oatsmaster
LightningStrike (0): ritoky, Alakaslam
sicklucker (0): LightningStrike
liancourt (0): LightningStrike
GlowingBear (1): Damdred
Fecalfeast (3): ritoky, LoneMeow, KelsierSC
KelsierSC (3): The_Templar, 27ninjabunnies, LightningStrike, Alakaslam
Xatalos (3): ObiWanShinobi, Vivax, Fecalfeast, rsoultin, Tubesock
froggynoddy (1): Half the Sky
Not Voting (0):
27ninjabunnies was lynched!
HTS spent the entire day sheeping sentiment, copying the read that everyone had on bunnies and then continuing to be part of that wagon.
She read my post on bunnies and stated:
also that froggy's post was null
She starts to compile the reasons that I already stated to add onto her bunnies scum read here but twists it towards adding on ritoky as a reason to scum read her too here:
Show nested quote +Xatalos, first, as explained, that first post I made towards bunnies was 1) before I read the trouble she'd gotten herself into, which I already admitted and 2) being the only other female in a male-dominated field, regardless of whatever roles we were, I thought it was cool to find another girl here. If you want to discuss usefulness of posts, that's fine, but there are a few others in the thread with far more fluff to start the game, as you put it.
Bunnies herself had more fluff at the very beginning of this thread (pages 16-17) and the whole Nicki Minaj thing on Ritoky followed by her vote on him is just...I mean if that's based on meta, I cannot tell that it is. I'm going to assume it's a joke vote, otherwise I cannot follow why she is voting him. Even worse, you look at her D1 list, she's voted Ritoky and she doesn't even scumlist him or change her vote before she leaves?
The rest of the posts are answers to questions, mostly by Damdred. Since you don't know me, this is my second game ever, first normal on TLM (thus unprepared for how quickly the thread took off) and I even told Damdred I had to keep reading other's posts to answer his questions on my reads.
if you look at the post above with her null/scum reads froggy is listed as Null - (one post discussing policy and that's it) and her scum reads are bunnies and kush.
Yet, bunnies does NOT adequately explain her list at all because as people stated multiple times in the thread people to look into do not sound like scum reads and iffy does not sound like null. Her list still existed, there were other points that made bunnies scummy pointed out by me, kita, vivax etc and instead of talking about those she ignored them all away by saying this:
Show nested quote +
27NB has answered my main concern on her (the Ritoky vote versus her D1 list) and the large D1 list in of itself early on which Damdred brought up with me which is making me reconsider. Marking Kitaman for saying hey as iffy is definitely alright, but not scum. But she explained that already.
If HTS was sheeping me as she mentioned earlier that my points on bunnies were good then this was not an adequate reason to get off of bunnies at all. Especially as her vote ended up on froggynoddy over any of her ACTUAL scum reads like kush/ows etc etc. She went for a vote on someone who was null and had absolutely nobody discussing to lynch. She didn't put effort into solving alignments at all and she was quite quick to jump off the leading wagon for no good reason whatsoever. This is scummy and unexplained in her filter.
Her day 2 is pretty unremarkable, it's like 1 page of filter where it says ritoky's case is full of holes on me and she shuts down gb's case of me and says ritoky is scummy but then ditches it for every leading wagon ever.
Scum reads ritoky for terrible case on me, holes in play, present. Defends case against me. Ritoky doesn't gain traction but ff is starting to -> switches to ff. Tubesock gains traction for scum slip -> switches to tubesock. Kelsier starts to gain traction for trfl case -> switches to kelsier because she can't switch to me after dismissing gb's case. This is also where the crux of another argument begins (one I made previously). The reason she scum read tubesock was basically inactivity and the "slip" about 5 mafia members. However, in that day she said she would give him the benefit of the doubt yada yada. Then we lead on to my case on her from last night which nobody has even mentioned today bar SL and rsoul has completely dismissed for no reason whatsoever (surprise surprise, will get to that later).
Show nested quote +On December 20 2014 18:31 Holyflare wrote:On December 16 2014 04:51 Half the Sky wrote:On December 16 2014 04:44 Fecalfeast wrote:I was never sold on tubesack being town but there was one post that made me wonder
On December 14 2014 07:24 Tubesock wrote:On December 14 2014 07:24 Fecalfeast wrote:
heading to work really soon, any objections to me staying on HF?
I do. Me or Kel. Take your pick.
Who gives an ultimatum between himself and his scum buddy?
I believe that was around the time he told Rasputin he didn't deserve to live, or if he died it would give his case massive credence. I remember that and that sounded like he was misguided. I am pretty sure I can find the quote because I remember very well Rasputin telling him off for that.
On December 19 2014 10:57 Half the Sky wrote:
Rasputin, HF's case on Templar is checking out. I dove into it during dinner, and that combined with GB's comment on the Tubesock tunnel makes him look really bad. As it stands I have no issues changing votes.
Wut. Hts sees tube giving an ultimatum about kelsier and himself from the other day, sees the case on templar with awful push on tube and agrees with it. Votes tube...?
Not to mention scum read gb pushing scum read templar who is pushing scum read tube???
On December 20 2014 06:01 Half the Sky wrote:On December 20 2014 05:52 rsoultin wrote:
The kill HF cheering squad is not around. Makes me wonder why. Makes me uncomfortable lynching Templar. -shrugs- Call me paranoid if you wish. I am, lol.
Rasputin, the magic number is six. If I were queen of Liquidia, I'd get rid of both GB and Templar, but seriously can that wagon realistically get another five votes in the remaining two hours?
Wut.
This was the case I made. It's pretty good. The only times HTS has really mentioned tube were to wagon onto him for being lazy/crazy/slipping but she said she'd give him the benefit of the doubt. She also commented on him another time to tell him that giving ultimatums between 2 players (himself and kelsier) isn't that great of a thing to do. So she definitely knows that in his repitoire of things that he's done tube has in fact made a lynch between himself and mafia and pushed kelsier in his conspiracy theory.
Later in the game I make a case on templar. His only push this game was on TOWN tube (who now that tube has flipped town looks terrible because of when templar said he only wanted to push mafia after talking about tube being mafia all of day 2). Now, when you agree with a case on someone being mafia (and she said it was very compelling) your first instinct isn't that THEIR scum read is being bussed by their team mate usually. So now, she scum reads GB based on rsoul's case. GB was talking about templar only pushing tube which HTS said she agreed with and it looked scummy. Templar was only pushing tube which she agreed, looked scummy. Who does she end up voting for!??!?! THE PEOPLE HER SCUM READ WERE PUSHING!??!?!?!?! I don't understand in the slightest and her reason for switching that she posted today didn't make any sense
Show nested quote +On December 19 2014 01:33 Half the Sky wrote:
SL - read your post top of page 200.
- Your third quote from GB - he's using setup here. Anything setup related is entirely speculative. Vivax (I believe it was him) provided an alternative setup to that, so I'm not sure how setup implicates anyone or provides alignment indicative information. I don't think your post is a very strong one when you try and use that.
Holyflare, regarding your case page 201.
- Generally speaking I didn't like how Templar wasn't participatory and had a weaker scumread on him as of last cycle
- The case you have on Templar is very solid altogether, especially using the meta to back it up.
Both appear to have different styles of playing scum in the cases illustrated, and I would think not all scum are going play the same way on a single scum team. I made that point in Student Mafia IV that it was more unlikely that all scummers would play the same way, with two of them out of the way in this game, it is a reasonable assumption here assuming 3 remain.
I could vote for either GB or Templar based on what has been presented.
(Sidenotes:
HF - 10/10 on the contract lol
Vivax - did you really have to post that visual on page 203? ugh)
These were her reasons for switching:
Show nested quote +On December 22 2014 22:15 Half the Sky wrote:
SL, I did not actually town read Tube. He was all over the place, but I was going to give him more time before concluding anything on him. Also at that time, I felt more strongly about others and focused on them/reviewed cases.
At EoD, we did not have enough votes for GB, so we consolidated. But when we consolidated on Templar, Rasputin had second thoughts about Templar, given how easily the wagon piled up. At the time, it made sense given the 27NB wagon D1, and not wanting a repeat of that, second-guessed myself which is why I got my vote off Templar. Tube had not posted in awhile, and that's why the decision was made.
Templar wagon was most definitely NOT quick, the tube wagon WAS SUPER QUICK but when push came to shove she didn't make that conusion and switch back to her actual scum read no and she most definitely could have by the way. She was all the merrier to stay on tubesock and lynch him despite her scum read pushing him ALL GAME.
You don't go from 2 compelling cases on gb and templar to voting on who they are pushing EVER unless you are switching to set up a mislynch or divert the wagon off of your scum buddy.
Also, yet again, her vote today is shying away from any of the wagons at all (me and templar). Templar should be EVEN MORE of a scum read today for her seeing as she would have priveleged information of what her alignment is and how the switch went down on tube. If she had those thoughts as town it wouldn't be particularly difficult for others to have those thoughts but she decides that xatalos is the scummy one and not actually templar whose case she still hasn't said she has disagreed with yet but isn't voting even though he is a second wagon.
Conclusion: Mafia.
TL;DR:
Flitting between whatever lynch sentiment is on, following off of scum reads onto who scum reads push, leaving votes on wasted people, no original thoughts.
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OatsmasterOats is literally a waste of space, HTS tried to make a case on oats being mafia which were based on absolutely 0 reasons that oats should be mafia (and she has completely dropped this since then???? +++oats/hts conspiracy) and I replied with this:
Show nested quote +On December 15 2014 23:14 Holyflare wrote:You don't have to look at meta to see oats is scummy. No idea why you only have a tiny bit based on his content and those things aren't even the things that make oats scummy.
However, bunnies didnt explain shit on her change which makes me think it is really bad. So too scum to be scum.
On December 12 2014 22:13 Oatsmaster wrote:On December 12 2014 22:10 GlowingBear wrote:
I want to read more of the thread before making a case on HF, but a lot of his reasoning is off. The lack of push on ritoky's present claim, the multiple scumreads of wagons outside the 27nb wagon and the 27nb mislynch is all playing against him.
His entrance in this game is awful, he picking on bunnies for being contradictory when picking up on frogs awful entrance but not picking on Vivax post on frog... This kind of double standards worries me.
explain pls.
Im not feeling it.
On December 13 2014 15:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
How is nk analysis even relevant?
Its straight up speculation. Look at how many other reads the dead people have.
Fecal has more posts than like 50% of the game.
Come on Vivax/hf other bad people.
It's things like this where he tries to shut down wagons (on conveniently town wagons (pending ff isn't gf or something) based on really just nothing. It's worse when he tries to shit on the ff lynch because of his post count and not the content especially as there were lots of content cases on ff at that point and i don't think it was till after vivax called him out that he started adding more reasons why the lynch was bad (the nk analysis things etc).
He is just uninvolved and downplaying lynches to end up only lynching lurkers.
Now he is doing it again today:
Show nested quote +On December 23 2014 00:51 Oatsmaster wrote:
Im so fucking busy.
But this hf read is badbadbabdbadbadbad
cant explain why.
But its bad.
#temp2014
##vote Temp
His votes have also been unexplained/left outlying/meh all game.
This is totally uncharacteristic for oats as any alignment in any game (although his mafia games tend to be lower content/post count filters) and really there's like nothing else to say other than the above because his filter is absent of absolutely anything. Unless he claims medic or something then he is very likely mafia.
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RsoultinThis is the most controversial read of all and I'm going to basically base it entirely on his behaviour in a possible lylo situation and the day before the possible lylo situation because fuck talking about 26 pages of filter in one post.
He's spent a long long long time scum reading GB as you all know very well (as some of you sheeped this read), I mean just literally read his plethora of posts on gb from like page 14+ of his filter????
Show nested quote +On December 18 2014 23:22 rsoultin wrote:
Okay -_- So for those of you who don't like wall posts I will make my stance simple. Most of my points on GB could happen as either town or mafia. Town can flip their reads on a gut read (odd that the one it protects is scum, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything) to someone instead of focusing on genuinely scummy behavior. Town can digress into a "town only gives presents to town" WIFOM for no reason. Town can speculate on set-ups and base scum reads on that. Town can tunnel. All of these things together look worse...or at least make the player look like a bad town player...but there are a couple things that are scum-motivated that have no town motivation at all:
- Continually calling for mass claiming in an open set-up where scum has 2-3KSs.Or calling for certain individuals to claim (carolers, those who were roleblocked, vet)
- Attempting to take credit for a lynch when he did not catch the lie, and furthermore did not vote for the player being lynched, when he clearly had enough time to do so. His defense that he was trying to see who would jump onto a third train was never followed through on...he is back on his old soapbox today.
^ There are no reasons that these are town behaviors. Plain and simple. You can ignore everything else and write it off as a pisspoor town player, but there are no reasons for a town player to do these two things.
HF may well be scum, I don't know. But I haven't seen him do scummy things, and I have seen GB do a multitude. Again, if you want to base your lynch decisions on WIFOM, presents, and set-up speculation...be my guest. Don't be surprised if it comes back to bite you in the arse though.
This is an especially apt quote. He sees absolutely no reason for this behaviour to come from any towny whatsoever. There's also the fact that he agrees with my templar case, sees him as scummy, says there's only 1 or 2 points which are a bit strange which I pretty adequately explain (and he takes it as me being pissed at him for some reason).
Show nested quote +On December 19 2014 23:20 rsoultin wrote:
Nah, I mostly agreed with your case. Was just commenting on some of your analytical comments that didn't seem as solid. I'm still for voting GB if I had my preference, though that's probably obvious lol.
I did, however, want you to understand that I'd read your case, agree that he could easily be scum, while explaining why I'm not as sure of him. (tbh though, lynching Templar down the road regardless of GBs alignment is a definite possibility in my eyes. he's not playing well. i'm also concerned about oats who doesn't seem to be interested in contributing much this game. is that normal for him? he seemed more engaged in my other game with him)
People commented on some of my actual analysis, too, and I agreed with some of their corrections. I.e. nothing necessarily being all that scummy about a rage!fitting demanding GB on Day 2, lol, but I still dislike people screaming at me to do things, especially for poor or unexplained reasons.
Show nested quote +On December 20 2014 00:17 rsoultin wrote:
I didn't make myself clear. Not believing that Damdred received a kill present is what implies SL is scum xP So we just said the same thing.
But yeah, he's very squirrely on all these presents. I'm scum leaning on him, but I don't think today is a good day to push him, because hey uphill climb lol. He's done a good job of convincing people to generally ignore his nuttiness (myself included) so that when he is scum we don't look at him as closely as maybe we should.
let's add SL to the scum read list he has because ignoring his joyful child claim that makes SL super towny is all the rage nowadays and is just adding to the giant list of everyone that rsoul wants to lynch.
Solidifies that GB lied about something and he wants to lynch him:
Show nested quote +On December 20 2014 01:41 rsoultin wrote:On December 17 2014 10:35 GlowingBear wrote:
But well, my theory that scum could have hammered HF but didn't was proven right.
If you're still scumreading me, remember that I was the one that started to ask questions about notification to ritoky. This is exactly what I was trying to achieve at that moment. That's why after his answer I asked anyone who was roleblocked day1 to claim.
Also, as holyflare quoted Vivax, LoneMeow was shot by vigi.
Proof one is that Obi said he was reading LM as mafia
Proof two is that, as only 2 kills happened, Obi was shot AND roleblocked, which is TOO accurate night actions for mafia UNLESS they realise obi was the only one scumreading LM. And as they know they didn't shoot LM night one, it was easy to know who to roleblock and kill.
Only you didn't. You asked for people to claim being roleblocked
before ritoky answered, then all you said was "okay". I can find the quotes again, if you need them as proof, but now I know where I got my timing messed up...you planted it in my head.
There is nothing whatsoever to indicate that you were trying to catch ritoky out in a lie.
There is, however, evidence to indicate that you were trying to get people to claim that they were being roleblocked...which, if you knew as you claim to that they weren't receiving notifications, is role-hunting. And if you knew, as you claim, you should have called ritoky out, not simply said "okay".
So either you're lying about your purpose behind asking for people to claim because you never really knew, or you had the opportunity, knowing that ritoky was lying, to call him on it and chose not to.
Show nested quote +On December 20 2014 02:38 rsoultin wrote:On December 19 2014 19:36 marvellosity wrote:
It doesn't Count
GlowingBear (4): LightningStrike, rsoultin, Alakaslam, LightningStrike, Half the Sky, Xatalos
Holyflare (5): sicklucker, LightningStrike, liancourt, Vivax, Alakaslam, The_Templar, GlowingBear, Tubesock
The_Templar (5): Holyflare, Fecalfeast, Oatsmaster, Vivax, Alakaslam
Currently Holyflare is set to be lynched. 12h24m until deadline.
Okay, we're about six hours out, so I guess it's time to ask were people stand.
I'm more confident of GB as scum than Templar, but am willing to vote Templar if others don't agree with me. I've already explained why.
I'd appreciate those on GB and Templar to say where they stand on the other two lynch options, why they like one scumread over another (if they have multiple) and whether or not they'd be willing to change their votes.
It's probably time to consider consolidating.
GB and templar are fine lynches
Show nested quote +On December 20 2014 03:58 rsoultin wrote:
Lol wasn't Tube the one going on about getting framed for getting passed a present? I don't think he ever claimed it. So that and his "slip" are your reasons, right, LS?
Alright, I'll go with Templar cause I'm going out and not certain I'll be back for EoD.
That said, I still think GB is more likely to flip scum -shrugs- Templar has some issues, but I could see him being just an apathetic lurker all too easily, unfortunately...
##unvote
##vote Templar
votes templar cz might not be back (returns in like an hour!?) and then suddenly out of the blue despite 48 hours of discussion saying otherwise states that templar MIGHT JUST BE APATHETIC TOWN AND MIGHT ACTUALLY BE TOWN!?!?!?!?!!?
Show nested quote +On December 20 2014 05:52 rsoultin wrote:
-salutes-
##unvote
##vote GB
The kill HF cheering squad is not around. Makes me wonder why. Makes me uncomfortable lynching Templar. -shrugs- Call me paranoid if you wish. I am, lol.
^ derails wagon nearing deadline, first display of hesitance for no reason (people not around to want to lynch me even though they are voting me already??)
Show nested quote +On December 20 2014 06:07 rsoultin wrote:On December 20 2014 06:01 Half the Sky wrote:On December 20 2014 05:52 rsoultin wrote:
The kill HF cheering squad is not around. Makes me wonder why. Makes me uncomfortable lynching Templar. -shrugs- Call me paranoid if you wish. I am, lol.
Rasputin, the magic number is six. If I were queen of Liquidia, I'd get rid of both GB and Templar, but seriously can that wagon realistically get another five votes in the remaining two hours?
Lol, realistically, I hope so. It either can or it can't. There are eight on Templar, so it doesn't threaten anyone's lynch preference for me to stick to my guns for awhile xP I only switched over because I didn't know how long I'd be out doing the Xmas shopping.
My concern is the cheering squad has been quite vocal the other times when we were lynching scum instead of HF.
Now they're not.
As I said, I'm paranoid.
The Templar case has some points, but nothing that I see that couldn't happen if he were town. -shrugs- Not gonna force y'all to join me. suddenly all the points where the templar could be leaning scummy for rsoul, all the points he's agreed with he suddenly COULD BE TOWN!???????? what the fuck, no, just no
magically after this switch onto someone rsoul has never mentioned at all (tube) his read on gb disappears despite him catching him in a lie and seeing absolutely no town motivation from his moves, his read on sl disappears, his read on oats has suddenly become more clear despite being "undecided" on him for every cycle this game, his read on templar becomes a fucking POLICY LYNCH ON SOMEONE WHO ISNT HERE
Show nested quote +
Templar I feel is a policy lynch, but I also have my suspicions as to why he would change onto Tube but not GB, and while you could say that Tube was a scumread for him...given how little he pushed Tube and how he seemed to have no other scumreads, he's sufficiently suspicious for me to consider lynching him.
AND THEN SCUM READS ME FOR NOT BEING HERE BUT THAT'S NOT A POLICY LOL????????????????????????????????????
Show nested quote +
HF...I could see as scum. He has survived 3 wagons now, though I know I've played a large role in that. I can see him as scum because he's spent most of the thread defending himself, and the vets keep saying he's an amazing town player...but I'm not seeing anything particularly amazing coming from him. He chose to make a case against Templar, and not only is Templar almost a policy lynch, but the analysis behind HF's case had a lot of holes. Maybe y'all's definition of an amazing town player is different than mine, but he's been less than impressive this game. I also have a low tolerance for excuse after excuse. Add onto that the possibility to better understand the voting from the last 3 days...and he's not a bad choice for lynch. I'd call him null leaning scum for me.
I'll tell you why this basically confirms him as scum. He takes all the points throughout the game that said DIDN'T make someone scummy and has combined them to make a read on me being scummy because that's where sentiment is.
His read on me surviving 3 wagons he has already stated doesn't make anyone scum here:
Show nested quote +On December 20 2014 10:49 rsoultin wrote:
Okay, genuine question time. From players who are not HF/lian:
Is there some sort of special significance to being a wagon multiple days?
He says templar is a policy lynch after agreeing with the post as I said before and saying he was leaning scum to then saying he was suddenly probably town and now doesn't even feature as any read whatsoever other than policy. Let's not forget vivax died after he was starting to think rsoul was mafia for knowing that it was almost lylo and not lynching me or templar for info on our alignments but now suddenly when it actually COULD be lylo he wants to lynch me. I'm also null/leaning scum but i'm his vote???? Where did gb go his confirmed mafia who would most definitely give more info to my alignment, where did sl go his scummy read??? Why does he ignore my case on hts/templar/oats and just says i've been doing absolutely nothing this game????
Not to mention he adds ANOTHER PERSON to his potential list lynch. Fecalfeast, who he questions a green check on for a very long time and then says he'll base his read on posts alone but then completely abandons that at all and hasn't mentioned ff since then.
Hint: he's mafia and now pushing a mislynch on someone that thread sentiment, from the people I think are town, want to push in lylo for the easy mislynch and win.
His scum reads are: gb, me, sl, ff, oats, potentially xata............ -.- as many as he possibly can push tbh - also shuts down my read and sl's push on HTS based on no analysis other than a simple passing by comment
Show nested quote +On December 20 2014 22:59 Vivax wrote:On December 20 2014 22:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
slam is super useless man.
Way more useful than the standard I'm used to, Slam is doing well this game and I don't get the feeling he simply piles up on mislynches.
Quite the opposite for you. Wasted votes, bad thread overview, weird scumreads, including me. Low thread presence.
But that wagon on tubesock must have been fueled by all the scummers and if it wasn't town deserves to lose.
Killing either Templar or HF would have told us a fuckton about the D2 votecount (for example, if Templar flipped town we would know that no scum was on HF and he's thus scum, if Templar was scum we'd have known that HF most likely is town) and instead an IC gets lynched that gives us no information at all.
lynch this mofo for pushing any mislynch he possibly can in what I now assume to actually be lylo
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SickluckerDude claimed joyful child in the most honest way possible day 1 and the presents talk he had regarding his joyful child claim could only come from town imo. Has pushed me the entirety of the game since and not much else, probably why mafia decided to leave him alive.
So much present wifom though but town read still, wish he wouldn't hate me so much especially after I tried to tell him that ritoky was mafia all of day 2 and he just shut me down
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AlakaslamStarting to forget he existed, his reads jump all over the place. Honestly a giant headache to read and he could be mafia and I could be wrong on one of the people but I just don't really care. I like that he wanted to lynch templar and he thought I was town etc etc, he looked pretty honest but today he has completely regressed and has decided to lynch me for some reason???
Show nested quote +On December 22 2014 11:48 Alakaslam wrote:
Templar best lynch! Look
We need to stay the course
Xata maybe tomorrow? Too much question mark
Templar was active early
Then started to lurk late
Then returned only when pressured
Templar is not town
conclusion: no idea, looked towny most of the game but has fallen off a lot when he looks lost to me
The_TemplarThe Templar case:
Show nested quote +On December 18 2014 22:19 Holyflare wrote:The_TemplarOn December 15 2014 22:23 Holyflare wrote:Ok well I read templar and I'm really not enthused. He spent all of day 2 not particularly doing anything (i also noticed he said he liked kelsier but also gave the caveat that he hadn't really read the thread at all) and gave no input into literally any of the wagons at all. He was so heavily focused on Tubesock and all of his posts but never really with anything else at all. For someone who read the thread he just jumped onto my wagon with ease based on not even gb's case but a small post gb made.
If he hasn't been reading the thread he shouldn't know whether any of the case is true or not and if he did read the thread he'd know it wasn't. He also never bothered to read me at all, never bothered to even check anything about anyone but instead only attacked tubesock for voting on mafia instead of his main read which is so fucking irrelevant when the lynch was between me/ff/kelsier that i find it hard to believe he even cares who he is voting as long as it isn't kelsier.
It's really scummy that he has no real thoughts of his own and was quite happy to sheep onto a mislynch with no real work behind anything other than going after tube.
Tubesock, you crazy.
I said that reading me as town after those santa fluff posts was bad unless you had reasoning. I saw NB was worse than Kelsier so I switched to her.
It's also super outrageous that templar says this and then the post he sheeped gb on and agreed with to vote me was saying that i had no reason to be on nb
His filter is also littered with useless comments like when froggy returns with a list post he just ignored any of the content in it and instead just asked an irrelevant "what do you think about x" question
This dude is super scummy.
Now that we know kelsier flipped mafia, adding to this case are things like his initial rng located here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=14#270Now, people that post rng post it in order to stick with it either in a joking way and get discussion going or in a serious manner and stick to it like glue because they are retarded (bh). Templar, after rnging it in the most suspicious way possible (not doing the division mechanics in any pre-determined way) picks out kelsier. Now, in my opinion kelsier had done crazy suspicious things like calling people town based on no meta to counter the read and also calling bats town after bats read has been proven false (as I pointed out and trfel copied for his ultimate case to lynch mafia), yet, as I was pushing ninjabunnies at the time over that read templar returned with the fluffiest post of all time:
Going back, Kelsier had led a noble-looking life for some time. As a devout Starcraft fan, he had followed many tournaments in 2013, even helping cover them through live reports. Santa knew many children that were overjoyed by that, as Kelsier had lifted immense pressure off of a few of them. Even recently, he still watched and waxed eloquent about the game, and could be considered passionate by many peoples' standards.
What had Kelsier really done wrong?
##Unvote
He never mentions ANY actual in game content about ANYONE other than they are lurkers/using posts badly:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=18#351After literally a wealth of information and posts on the 3 subjects, kelsier/bunnies and froggy he instead decides to say absolutely nothing about any of them. Kelsier isn't mentioned for content at all, froggy is mentioned for being a hypocrite with no opinion on the matter and then he unvotes kelsier to sheep onto the ninjabunnies wagon not because she was contradictory, had her top scum read or w/e in her scum list bla bla. Only because she had spent some posts talking about clothes and used 12 of 80 posts on this. You could argue this was just at the start of the posting spree on bunnies but he returned later and had an equally useless post about his top scum read:
On the sleigh ride, Santa had read this post very carefully. Ninjabunnies, along with many other people, had created her own list of who she expected to receive Christmas presents, and who would receive coal. What position was she in to determine this? Why should she do this? Santa supposed that it was a vital component of the argument taking place and that she was taking steps to ensure she was as or less likely to be placed on the naughty list compared to anyone else. Santa was not convinced, however. Why did she think these people were on the naughty list? Why had she bothered to defend the froggy one when she was going to label him Naughty for the same reason?
he STILL mentions none of the arguments but only scum reads her based on the fact she wasted some posts and posted a list????? His reads are SO surface level it's actually ridiculous. He's also busy pointing out people that are red claiming (is alakaslam a snowman?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=20#400 etc) His posts are specifically intended to look like contribution, by way of length, but are instead just multiple waves of nonsense that doesn't make anyone scum and he's refused to even take part in the discussions.
+ Show Spoiler +Koshi
Half the Sky
Oatsmaster
kitaman27
Damdred
rsoultin
froggynoddy
kushm4sta
sicklucker
Alakaslam
Vivax
ObiWanShinobi
The_Templar
Xatalos
LightningStrike
liancourt
batsnacks
ritoky
Fecalfeast
Holyflare
GlowingBear
LoneMeow
Trfel
Tubesock
KelsierSC
27ninjabunnies
his list is also pretty weird. He's like totally ignored everyone that is posting about the bunnies lynch apart from vivax (mainly me) yet posting similar things about her and has this weird list that comes out of nowhere. I'm also not ignoring the fact that he called bunnies scum for having a list of reads but then made this list, I'm also not going to ignore the fact that he calls bunnies mafia for wasting posts but doesn't even mention slams spamming slew of posts as indicative at all. Double standards are crazy and scummy. He's ignored everything that made kelsier scummy in this respect too and actually bolded him based on...? Nobody will ever know at this point because all he talked about in regards to kelsier is that he liked to write about starcraft.
The rest of his day 1 was a LOT of afking and then one of those "catch up with absolutely everything in the game" posts, yet this catch up specifically said absolutely nothing and made no conclusions whatsoever it was comment on post by post. He maintained that ninjabunnies WAS scummy and being pushed for good reasons yet, later in the game said I fell off halfway through day 1 and had no reason to be on bunnies:
Tubesock, you crazy.
I said that reading me as town after those santa fluff posts was bad unless you had reasoning. I saw NB was worse than Kelsier so I switched to her.
He then AGREED with gb's case which stated that I had no proper reason to be on ninjabunnies because the points didn't make her mafia and that he DISAGREED with the other half of this case because he didn't know where I said any of the stuff gb was mentioning (which later turns out gb pulled out of his arse).
On December 13 2014 05:59 The_Templar wrote:On December 13 2014 05:46 GlowingBear wrote:
Templar, thoughts on my brief case on HF.
On December 13 2014 05:28 GlowingBear wrote:
HF doesn't look like he is pushin town agenda, but his own self agenda. This looks much more like mafia holyflare. He points out things that aren't really mafiaish and doesn't seem to try to further identify people's alignment. His pushes aren't for solving the game. They are mostly done just to push, just to make a lynch happen, maybe.
His backtracking on froggy is weird because he kept an absolute stance regarding bunnies, who I just say sounded more null than anything, and froggy is leaning scum.
HF once came to the thread and said that we should look for people outside the NB wagon, which is ridiculous. He wasn't talking about people who WASTED their votes. He was talking about people outside the main wagon. He also said me and ritoky looked the worst. You can see he is doing a timid push on ritoky, but it really doesn't sound like he is trying to figure out his alignment. Weirdly enough, the present claim from ritoky remained unquestioned by HF. MOREOVER, he did not make ANY attempt to figure out my alignment when he said I looked bad at that time.
He is scum.
Bolded: where did he say that?
Otherwise I agree with this case. HF looks worse than he did halfway through day 1 He is literally saying he agrees with gb's case that I didn't have very good reasons to be on bunnies after he was also on bunnies (with like 0 reasons???) Yet then when it starts to pick up some more, he starts saying he agrees with everything GB is saying on me. (I don't have to reiterate that following this case is ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE if you had actually read it and fact checked it because I have destroyed this case multiple times and GB HAS STILL NOT SAID ANYTHING ABOUT MY DEFENCE 3 DAYS LATER -.- -.- -.- -.- -.-).
Currently, the naughty list is Ninjabunnies, GB, and LightningStrike from what I've seen.
It's also quite odd that if he sees that half the case is what he's guilty of and the other half doesn't make any sense and he was previously scum reading gb the night before that he'd just go full on sheep mode and say "great case".
He also has contradictory self meta whenever people call him out on it:
On December 13 2014 22:54 The_Templar wrote:On December 13 2014 12:25 Vivax wrote:
Tentative naughty list, it would be cool if we could lynch one of these baddies today:
- GB for this discrepancy in his case. The froggynoddy suspicion is entirely new and he doesn't look included among his scumspects. Rather fresh scumread stemming from that HF case, still have to look for more stuff thoroughly.
- TheTemplar for not being the ballsy, (scumhuntingly) talkative town templar who always gets townread D1 and mostly NKd N1. Gut based explanation, check for inconsistencies also pending here (yes I'm not going through as many filters thoroughly as I probably should yet, besides we can't lynch all of em today so I think it's fine)
- Fecalfeast for some of the stuff I found in his filter and already mentioned, plus he martyrs at various points, like during N1 and lately when he sort of expressed he doesn't care about the scumreads. But it's not the sort of righteous townie martyr when somebody is genuinely pissed off about people scumreading him or the sort, it's more like the "I don't care about the game"- martyr. Additionally he was in the focus of the night killed guys.
- Trfel for playing extremely subpar to his last game when he's capable of much much more. He doesn't want to stand in the spotlight in this game.
There's probably 5 scum since the formula for scummers is usually amount of players / 5. I don't know why people go on so much about tubesock claiming there's 5 scum being a scumslip. Scumslips are overrated in all the games I've played in save very few exceptions. Overall I find him tedious to read cause he has such a weird way of expressing himself, if I would give him a read it certainly wouldn't be cause of that.
Finding the likely 5th scum pending. Tempted to look into the direction of Oats, soultin, Kelsier for this one.
I will admit that I'm not playing like either my town or scum meta.
When I'm mafia, I tend to lurk a lot and try to have reads on everyone to look like I'm trying to solve the game.Sorry I'm being inactive, stuff that happened during day 1 broke my spirit in general.
Here he says he would be crazy lurking normally as mafia and putting out reads. Yet, later, when pressure is building on him he changed it to:
On December 17 2014 07:33 The_Templar wrote:On December 17 2014 07:17 froggynoddy wrote:
Templar, slam and perhaps Oats are scummy lurkers rather than simply AFK/ town lurkers for reasons previously disclosed.
I'm not a scummy lurker because, as scum, I will always:
1. Post as much as possible, at all hours of the day in order to make myself look active.
2. Post my 'thoughts' on every player, so that I'm not clearly ignoring someone.
3. Make ridiculously long posts to justify an opinion
4. Change my behavior as soon as someone mentions it is scummy.
Regarding Vivax, he seems to have a new list of scum reads every day and it's concerning me.
being really active, posting all the time, with long drawn out posts of justification. He seems to have multiple metas thought out for all the occasions!
There's also these random tidbits on throwing accusations on vivax:
On December 17 2014 00:44 The_Templar wrote:
I can see Vivax and ritoky. Wanna explain the other two?
On December 18 2014 18:11 The_Templar wrote:On December 18 2014 18:04 Vivax wrote:
Templar ur scum with Oats HF, amirite?
There's this part in ritoky's filter where he calls you out on the fluffy posts, and it sounds entirely different from how he handles his next suspect, plus his next suspect ends up among his scumreads and you don't. Plus there's one point where he questions an OWS townread but not a townread on you.
Additionally you've been a N1 kill in every game I was in and have bled townie every time from the start.
Sorry broski but this is ggnore.
I'm pretty sure you did exactly the same thing.
On December 14 2014 15:07 Vivax wrote:
Also Templar is mafia.
Like super mafia.
This post was followed by nearly 0 mention of me, for about 48-60 hours I believe. The only difference is that you quietly listed me on your scum list about 24 hours ago.
after saying absolutely nothing about him all game, sheeping his read on xatalos day 1 and vivax having the supposedly same reads as him because they both wanted to lynch me forever. It just looks like he's throwing suspicion everywhere he can.
Then you can just read the above quoted previous case I made in regards to him not giving a shit about who is lynched ever and instead pressuring tubesock EVEN THOUGH HE SAID HE COULDN'T GET HIM LYNCHED. How futile is that?
On December 14 2014 06:54 The_Templar wrote:On December 14 2014 06:53 Tubesock wrote:On December 14 2014 06:52 The_Templar wrote:On December 14 2014 06:49 Tubesock wrote:
Templar, you have been on me since the beginning of day 2. AND JUST NOW YOU VOTE OFF ME WHEN I SPAM AND DROP HUGE READS???
Why are you so concerned about this when half the people in this game saw huge walls of text and immediately town read you? You are still mafia in my eyes, don't worry.
Then vote me.
I'd rather actually be able to lynch a mafia.
Where has this tube thing gone by the way?
On December 18 2014 17:50 The_Templar wrote:
##Vote: HolyFlare
Oh yeh, sheeping dat thread sentiment onto a town lynch again even though there's literally nothing he's said about me, spread suspicion onto vivax for after my flip and gb's case has been dissolved. There's no reason to be on me other than to blend and obtain another mislynch. (They only need 2 to win btw)
The Meta -
ignore this section if you're a twat face+ Show Spoiler [The_Templar] +There is pretty little to go on in terms of meta in the database for templar, yet, just looking at the differences between the games, the amount of effort going into his mafia game is far more than here. Yet, so is his town game. This is congruent with what he is saying part way through the game at least. However, there's a difference in his posting styles. As town you see posts like these ones on page 4:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/465384-mission-mini-mafia?user=The_Templar&page=4he seems like he's chasing up his reads, finding inconsistencies in people's posting and making sure people know it. It's not the matter of appearing to have a read on everyone, it looks like he's trying to get people to notice things that make people mafia.
Whereas in his mafia game here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/450895-newbie-mini-mafia-lvi?user=The_Templar&page=4You see things where he is posting reads like "i agree with this", "your posts are pretty null" and yes, you can say he has long posts as mafia too for instance here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/450895-newbie-mini-mafia-lvi?page=20#382that look the same but when you read the actual content he isn't finding the inconsistencies within the people's posts he's instead going very surface level and just saying that he disagrees with things and that this is how they'd act in video mafia etc etc. There's no real game logic involved.
Now when you tie his meta together with this game you can see the same things. I stated earlier that all his reads were "surface level", they weren't congruent with his original thoughts. He doesn't read things properly or even bother to CHECK whether there are inconsistencies at all. You can literally see this where he disagrees with half of gb's case on me (and agrees with something that he is far more guilty of) but never follows up to see whether there was an inconsistency with what gb was saying or not, especially as he scum read GB the last day and town read me. In fact other people were left to do this and he didn't give a shit and went after tube who is no longer anywhere in his reads at all.
##vote the_templarmore to come, eventually....
Since the lynch switched off of him he has sat in the position with the most information in the game so far yet has provided absolutely no insight into what happened whatsoever, has processed nothing to do with the game. Solely said "why are people voting me" and then left after saying he didn't know what he was talking about. No idea how anyone can town read this guy whatsoever.
Conclusion: Mafia so hard
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XatalosJust going to come out and say I sent the present to this guy, this guy sent it to fecalfeast. If mafia fake claimed vigi which apparently fecal is claiming they did then why on earth would mafia ever willingly send that information out into other peoples hands? I don't scum read fecal and I don't think it was a fake claim. Xata has also been pushing good points in regards to defending me because he knew I sent the present to him and was most likely town. Liked his defences from pushes all game. Has been a bit passive this game but the present things outweighs everything imo (unless ff and xata are mafia together but doubt it really)
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LightningStrikeClaimed ghost when no reason to. Not CC'd. Never lynch ever.
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liancourtWhy the fuck did you even sign up?
Despite the annoyance he's up to date with the thread, didn't do his usual mafia crap of being behind and commenting on absolutely everything. Claimed vet all day 1. I can see him believing that his tone read is right on me and arguably has the only argument for me being mafia in this entire thread (despite it being wrong). Pretty confident he's town.
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FecalFeastVery sure he was a green check despite any of rsoul's attempts to state otherwise. Trfel made no comment on anything individual that fecal had done the entire game but adamently town read him. Despite this, fecals play has been pretty underwhelming but the way he was handling the present claims etc seemed pretty towny (pretending to pass it away etc). Don't like that he's trolling this game with who to vote for and it's also actually kind of weird that he was trolling at the deadline between me and gb on who would be more angry and then got all serious and declared a switch to tube??
conclusion: lazy read of being town but lazyness prevails from actually reading him properly
Glowingbearfuck you for making me actually put effort into this game
agree with towny motivations that vivax stated against rsouls case
somewhat biased because of rsoul
been wrong all game so probably actually town
case on me wasn't actually awful cz he did research and pushed a prolific town player over random easy mislynches
has lied about things though but is dumb so can see that happening
doing research into players near lylo (xata)
Section 2 - The Conclusions
Likely Mafia TeamRsoultin
The_Templar
Oats
Half the Sky
Likely Towny PeopleXata
Lian
SL
GB
LS
UndecidedSlam (probably should go to towny people)
Fecalfeast (probably should do the same - need to read more)
5288
1163
256
EPT
