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Newbie Student Mafia X - Page 9

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disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 15:18 GMT
#1615
Okay, just for verification:
plotspot: you did only claim to be roleblocked in N1 to get the mafia to think you are not the rb, right?
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 15:50 GMT
#1621
plotspot: could you explain why boxerfred was the second mason in your opinion? imo you never bothered to explain that.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 17:06 GMT
#1645
On May 29 2015 02:02 boxerfred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2015 19:55 disformation wrote:
Also town rb and gf stuff:
Since batsnacks is 100% the cop and we 100% have masons, that makes it extremely unlikely we also have a town rb (that can block mafia kp!). Thus I agree that we have 2 mafia rb. Which makes it a bit more unlikely we have mafia rb/rb/gf.

By taking out the people with claims,checks, etc. the people left are:
ticktoc
boxerfred
Sulfurus
sicklucker
disformation

That is like a 2/5 to lynch mafia. If one of those is the town mason and claims, we are down to basically a 50% chance of hitting mafia.
In my case, if I take myself out (since I know I'm town) and you are the mason. I have only 3 targets left. Look at my huge wall a few pages ago.
Even if there is a GF, one of those 3 is 100% mafia.

Solid post. Except taking you out. It's fun how you imply the GF role but include bunnies in your "she's green-checked" list. Why do you do that?


In your case you can totally take yourself out and leave me in the pool.
Was trying to imply that with "I take myself out (since I know I'm town)". Should have been more clear.
"Even if there" at the time I was highly doubting the existence of a GF.

Currently very unsure. Likely to drop the role speculation stuff altogether and return to look at who looks really scummy and so on, since I feel all the role speculation stuff will lead into a trap.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 17:09 GMT
#1646
On May 29 2015 02:04 boxerfred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2015 20:42 disformation wrote:
Yo. plotspot.
On May 28 2015 12:56 27ninjabunnies wrote:
EBWOP: Why ARE YOU no lynching?


I am getting a bit annoyed right now. This game is basically solvable using some logic, but we are having a bunch of (presumably) town trying to make it as hard as possible to the very last minute.
I kinda want to go in a corner and cry for a bit.

Is it? Go on, do it. I'm really curious to hear you call out others.


At the time of posting that I was very sure that lynching according to my huge wall would bring town a victory. And I don't like the tone. =p
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 17:47 GMT
#1658
So. I am currently looking at the filters of everyone alive, to see if I can get a solid scum read on anyone... and look what I have found:
On May 28 2015 05:50 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Lol. I don't like talking at night cause it gives mafia role reads.

Dumb.

But if you must know. As I've already said.

Breshke is town. Is highly look at s cum between SL, dis, and maybe batsnacks now. I'll give reasonings on them tomorrow.

Plots you are in my possible s cum list too

How often has bunnies failed to deliver onto something now? I kinda lost track...
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 18:13 GMT
#1662
On May 29 2015 03:09 batsnacks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 03:02 sicklucker wrote:
On May 29 2015 02:03 batsnacks wrote:
I think I'm just going to assume all the claims are legit. I'm the cop, Tiktok is the mason, plot is the rb. All town.

I think it's too dangerous for mafia to claim mason and risk getting cced if there is another mason in the game. Tiktok is probably the mason.

I think the way plot claimed is too insane to be mafia. I don't think mafia completely loses their shit and makes a huge scene like that.

So there must be a gf, meaning my checks are less useful. If bunnies is the gf then her partner probably voted Bill Murray to save her, which sulfur didn't. Which is curious.


who does that leave.

Altho sulf didnt vote to save her. He didnt vote against her he wasted his vote if i recall correctly. He simply could have been waiting to see if bunnies needed his vote to survive and if so use it


Yeah. Also, in sulfur's "reasons" post he said he would have been happy if either bill or bunnies got lynched, so it's strange how his vote wound up on neither of them. So maybe you're right. Either way I think he's a better lynch than 27nb today.

If all the claims are legit were left with barakos, SL, bunnies, disinfo, sulfur. I think at most 1 of barakos/27nb can be mafia because of the green checks.


Did I miss something? boxerfred is still left, too.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 18:16 GMT
#1664
So we just should look really hard at these people decide, on a list and lynch them.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 20:29 GMT
#1672
On May 29 2015 04:56 27ninjabunnies wrote:
We aren't lynching a claimed rb. Especially after the mafia one died and there was roleblock after that.

We lynch outside of that.

There very well could be a godfather, so yes, while the checks can't be looked at in a for sure matter, you know one oof us is town, if not both.

So we lynch outside of the checks too. They can be revisited later.

Open for suggestions.
On May 28 2015 13:55 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Tops lynches

PRP
Dis

Sulf/SL if the other two arent mafia.

Who/What is PRP?
Also... you did promise some stuff yesterday. Could you keep at least one promise this game? Like pretty please?
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 20:36 GMT
#1674
On May 29 2015 05:32 plotspot wrote:
Guys we just lynch one of the not checked. I don't know what the setup of the Mafia is. If it's only 1 GF than we have among ninjabunnies and barakos a 84% chance of mislynch. It's like these guys are 84% confirmed town. We use everyones cooperation to vote one of the 4 guys, SL, disinformation, sulfurus and boxerfred.

I read SL and disformation town. So I am willing to vote: sulfurus or boxerfred. I'll weight up who of them is scummier tomorrow. But please tell me your opinion, we can only vote one of them. Who of those two do you guys think is more scummy? If you decided on disformation or SL I'd be very unreluctant to accept, but post your case if you think it's totally support them being scum.


Can maybe help you out here, just am working on this:

Sulfurus:
+ looks really good D1: putting out original reads on a bunch of people.
0/- after a poe list (that doesn't look good by now) on D2, it gets hard to track who he thinks is scum/town
- doesn't touch scott at all D1.
- while he doesn't like to unvote his #1 scum read, he isn't really pushing any of them...
- has literally zero interaction with the two persons he wasted his votes on (on the day he votes for them)

boxerfred:
- very not pushy D1
- kinda sheeps the vote onto scott D1, says he doesn't like this, but keeps his vote that way
0 looks like he is trying to make sense of what is happening D1, not giving a lot of original thoughts but commenting on a lot of stuff other people post
+ not sheeping onto sicklucker wagon, puts out some reads D2
+ moves vote to #2 scum (bunnies) after realizing that there is no SK
0 sheeps onto bill murray because for pressure
0 returns to bunnies because he doesn't like to kill inactives
0 a lot of his effort seem to be focuses on sicklucker, BM and me
+ seems to be overall confused by the role setup this game
0 1/3 of his filter happens after he sees that a lot of people want to lynch him D3

0 = null
+ = town
- = scum

bit of a work in progress. if you have any differing opinions feel free to ask/correct, whatever
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 20:41 GMT
#1675
EBWOP:
Not sure on the ratings on boxerfred, suggestions?
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 21:09 GMT
#1680
Yeah, I agree that we should stop talking about roles and claims that much and just lynch the scummiest person around.

batsnacks whole D2 play makes basically no sense without him being the cop.
ticktoc being the 2nd mason makes a lot of sense.
plotspot is an unclaimed blue after all...

A pity that a lot of people look so scummy. Let me waffle around for a bit... ##unvote
Ah btw "good news": evening plans for tomorrow were cancelled so I'll be around for EoD and stuff tomorrow.

I wish I could be of more help to town, but I am kinda fatigued atm. =/
This game...
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 21:11 GMT
#1681
On May 29 2015 06:07 plotspot wrote:
Right I have no experience with it. If you think it's unusual, let's ask cakepie after the game why that is, do you agree?


That is basically my whole problem. The setup IS unusual no matter how I think about it. And if you or batsnacks are lying this stance might make town lose.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 21:21 GMT
#1684
On May 29 2015 06:19 batsnacks wrote:
@disinfo My d2 play made enough sense for you to vote with me for the same reasons I did.


Upon rereading it N2, I found it strange that your only interaction with bunnies was asking her for a read on barakos.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 21:32 GMT
#1689
On May 29 2015 06:29 batsnacks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 06:21 disformation wrote:
On May 29 2015 06:19 batsnacks wrote:
@disinfo My d2 play made enough sense for you to vote with me for the same reasons I did.


Upon rereading it N2, I found it strange that your only interaction with bunnies was asking her for a read on barakos.


I am intentionally less useful at night, especially when I'm the cop. It makes sense if you think about it.


meant to say "upon rereading your D2 behaviour during N2".
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 21:39 GMT
#1692
On May 29 2015 06:37 batsnacks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 06:32 disformation wrote:
On May 29 2015 06:29 batsnacks wrote:
On May 29 2015 06:21 disformation wrote:
On May 29 2015 06:19 batsnacks wrote:
@disinfo My d2 play made enough sense for you to vote with me for the same reasons I did.


Upon rereading it N2, I found it strange that your only interaction with bunnies was asking her for a read on barakos.


I am intentionally less useful at night, especially when I'm the cop. It makes sense if you think about it.


meant to say "upon rereading your D2 behaviour during N2".


That was definitely not my only interaction with bunnies d2. I was the first person to vote bunnies. I started the wagon on her. I repeatedly asked her about bill. When she responded I followed up and asked for her comments on bill's big post that got everyone off his back. I asked her for reads on everyone.


rereading. please stay tuned.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 21:50 GMT
#1694
On May 29 2015 06:39 disformation wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 06:37 batsnacks wrote:
On May 29 2015 06:32 disformation wrote:
On May 29 2015 06:29 batsnacks wrote:
On May 29 2015 06:21 disformation wrote:
On May 29 2015 06:19 batsnacks wrote:
@disinfo My d2 play made enough sense for you to vote with me for the same reasons I did.


Upon rereading it N2, I found it strange that your only interaction with bunnies was asking her for a read on barakos.


I am intentionally less useful at night, especially when I'm the cop. It makes sense if you think about it.


meant to say "upon rereading your D2 behaviour during N2".


That was definitely not my only interaction with bunnies d2. I was the first person to vote bunnies. I started the wagon on her. I repeatedly asked her about bill. When she responded I followed up and asked for her comments on bill's big post that got everyone off his back. I asked her for reads on everyone.


rereading. please stay tuned.


D1 you say you lean scum on bunnies and want to reread her filter.
then you go "well she's okay" and vote scott.
D2 you ask sicklucker what he thinks of bunnies. + Show Spoiler +
On May 25 2015 08:18 sicklucker wrote:
a bunnies lynch wouldnt make me happy but I wouldnt cry about it

You vote her out of the blue on
next things on bunnies:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 26 2015 04:28 batsnacks wrote:
27nb and SL please give a read on barakos when you can.

Then you state a few times that you probably will unvote bunnies:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 26 2015 20:23 batsnacks wrote:
It should be easy for 27nb to not be the lynch today all she has to do is try and cooperate, which she's doing neither.

On May 26 2015 20:27 batsnacks wrote:
If 27nb shows up and makes some super compelling push on e.g. sulfur and makes a strong case on why she's town I'd probably unvote. She just needs to do what SL is doing and 1) try and 2) cooperate.

State that she also could be the lynch that day:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 26 2015 20:47 batsnacks wrote:
I could see any of 27nb, bm, sulfur, Barakos, or even me being the lynch today. SL earned another day imo. Tiktok, BF, plot, disfo are all safe for now I think, unless I missed something huge. It sort of depends on what, if anything, bunnies does.

bunnies shows up, cases BM, ignores your previous question:
you ask her two question, which she answers: <- missed that part, sry
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 26 2015 23:13 batsnacks wrote:
Bunnies talk about his big post. That's the one that got people off his back.

On May 27 2015 04:44 batsnacks wrote:
27nb what about breshke?



Okay, yeah she answered two of your questions, that is more interaction than I could remember. sry. I think I start to get confused by constantly rereading stuff. Should probably go to bed before I start to post more crap. =/
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 22:39 GMT
#1710
On May 29 2015 07:33 boxerfred wrote:
Questions:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1642
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1654
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1652


First question was alreay answered by me here:
On May 29 2015 02:06 disformation wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 02:02 boxerfred wrote:
On May 28 2015 19:55 disformation wrote:
Also town rb and gf stuff:
Since batsnacks is 100% the cop and we 100% have masons, that makes it extremely unlikely we also have a town rb (that can block mafia kp!). Thus I agree that we have 2 mafia rb. Which makes it a bit more unlikely we have mafia rb/rb/gf.

By taking out the people with claims,checks, etc. the people left are:
ticktoc
boxerfred
Sulfurus
sicklucker
disformation

That is like a 2/5 to lynch mafia. If one of those is the town mason and claims, we are down to basically a 50% chance of hitting mafia.
In my case, if I take myself out (since I know I'm town) and you are the mason. I have only 3 targets left. Look at my huge wall a few pages ago.
Even if there is a GF, one of those 3 is 100% mafia.

Solid post. Except taking you out. It's fun how you imply the GF role but include bunnies in your "she's green-checked" list. Why do you do that?


In your case you can totally take yourself out and leave me in the pool.
Was trying to imply that with "I take myself out (since I know I'm town)". Should have been more clear.
"Even if there" at the time I was highly doubting the existence of a GF.

Currently very unsure. Likely to drop the role speculation stuff altogether and return to look at who looks really scummy and so on, since I feel all the role speculation stuff will lead into a trap.


On May 29 2015 07:33 boxerfred wrote:
[...]Dis, bunnies, barakos and sulf do a great job with that thus far.


Thanks.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 23:08 GMT
#1716
On May 29 2015 07:42 boxerfred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 07:39 disformation wrote:
On May 29 2015 07:33 boxerfred wrote:
Questions:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1642
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1654
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1652


First question was alreay answered by me here:
On May 29 2015 02:06 disformation wrote:
On May 29 2015 02:02 boxerfred wrote:
On May 28 2015 19:55 disformation wrote:
Also town rb and gf stuff:
Since batsnacks is 100% the cop and we 100% have masons, that makes it extremely unlikely we also have a town rb (that can block mafia kp!). Thus I agree that we have 2 mafia rb. Which makes it a bit more unlikely we have mafia rb/rb/gf.

By taking out the people with claims,checks, etc. the people left are:
ticktoc
boxerfred
Sulfurus
sicklucker
disformation

That is like a 2/5 to lynch mafia. If one of those is the town mason and claims, we are down to basically a 50% chance of hitting mafia.
In my case, if I take myself out (since I know I'm town) and you are the mason. I have only 3 targets left. Look at my huge wall a few pages ago.
Even if there is a GF, one of those 3 is 100% mafia.

Solid post. Except taking you out. It's fun how you imply the GF role but include bunnies in your "she's green-checked" list. Why do you do that?


In your case you can totally take yourself out and leave me in the pool.
Was trying to imply that with "I take myself out (since I know I'm town)". Should have been more clear.
"Even if there" at the time I was highly doubting the existence of a GF.

Currently very unsure. Likely to drop the role speculation stuff altogether and return to look at who looks really scummy and so on, since I feel all the role speculation stuff will lead into a trap.


On May 29 2015 07:33 boxerfred wrote:
[...]Dis, bunnies, barakos and sulf do a great job with that thus far.


Thanks.

Regarding this, I still don't get why you say "there's possibly a BF" but at the same time say "bunnies is green". Might just be an implication of "well green-reads can be gf" or a huge blunder from a scum member

However, this is it for today, good night!


Okay, last post for today, too.

I will try to walk you through this with every little step.
1) assume the claims are all valid
2) assume there is no GF or the GF wasn't checked
3) look at the people left
4) count them
5) result was 5 (with the 2nd mason claim this would be 4 now), therefore 2/5 would be mafia if 1) and 2) are true
6) assuming 1) and 2) + you take yourself and the 2nd mason: we would have a 66% chance to hit scum if we randomly lynch one of the 3 remaining people
7) assuming 1) is true and 2) is not true, the % is lower (33), but there is bound to be only 1 GF.

where has anything of this anything to do with bunnies?
This is also why I meant that this game could be solved with logic.
But later I unsure if I using assumptions 1) and 2) are a good idea for town, because if one of the claims is false, we will lose using this logic.
I hope you can understand my thought process now.


Random rant:
Why are so many people looking scummy this game? At least like three persons are making this game harder for town, I feel. =/


outgoing things town should consider for D3:
  1. Are we willing to believe the claims?
  2. Who of the remaining people looks the scummiest?

I hope to see some real cases trying to answer these questions tomorrow. Otherwise I will have to do that and my reads are crap this game. :p
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 28 2015 23:10 GMT
#1717
EBWOP:
"But later I unsure if I using assumptions 1) and 2) are a good idea for town, because if one of the claims is false, we will lose using this logic."
should read:
But later I got unsure if using assumptions 1) and 2) are a good idea for town, because if one of the claims is false, we will lose using this logic.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 29 2015 12:12 GMT
#1748
On May 29 2015 20:47 Tictock wrote:
I'm not really trying to say "ignore roles".

Just Think outside them as well.


That is a very good idea. Basically saying: "Let us look at ALL people and lynch the scummiest." Might also lead us to the discovery if and who might be fakeclaiming here.
Was trying that for a bit yesterday, but wasn't able to go through all people with that because I started to get pretty tired/fatigued.

Sulfurus has the huge problem, that after D1 he really started to fall off and there is not much to go on. Which is in my mind a scum strategy... the best post from him D2 was his poe list which had a ton of people (keeping options open) and by now a lot of that list turned out to be town. So I can easily see why a lot of people think he is scum.

On May 29 2015 20:56 batsnacks wrote:
I'm gonna vote bunnies in breshke's honor if she afks again. I think the green check adds to her town equity but she said to hold her accountable for what she says she'll do so I'm going to do that.


I really hope she does something amazing this time.
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