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Newbie Student Mafia X - Page 6

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boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 16:58 GMT
#1640
The sulf thing gets tricky at this point.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 16:59 GMT
#1641
On May 28 2015 15:38 Sulfurus wrote:
I probably should have taken the time to explain my votes earlier.

Remember on D1 the vote was 6 for Scott and 3 for Dis with most people giving no indication of changing so there is nothing I can do to change who dies. But what I can do is give my reads more weight to them by voting my top scum (who unfortunately for me turned out to be cop).

On D2 it is true that I was AFK for the whole Bunnies vs. Murray ordeal however both were on my lynch list so technically I would have been fine with either getting lynch. However I have a feeling that if I was present I would have changed my opinion.

Speaking of changing opinions I realize that the list I linked looks pretty bad in light of recent events (I am pretty certain that BS is legit for reasons others have stated) so it looks like I will have to take some time off to do some rereading and hopefully come up with a list of scum that doesn't make people want to instalynch me.

Good explanations. Giving him a town read now.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:02 GMT
#1642
On May 28 2015 19:55 disformation wrote:
Also town rb and gf stuff:
Since batsnacks is 100% the cop and we 100% have masons, that makes it extremely unlikely we also have a town rb (that can block mafia kp!). Thus I agree that we have 2 mafia rb. Which makes it a bit more unlikely we have mafia rb/rb/gf.

By taking out the people with claims,checks, etc. the people left are:
ticktoc
boxerfred
Sulfurus
sicklucker
disformation

That is like a 2/5 to lynch mafia. If one of those is the town mason and claims, we are down to basically a 50% chance of hitting mafia.
In my case, if I take myself out (since I know I'm town) and you are the mason. I have only 3 targets left. Look at my huge wall a few pages ago.
Even if there is a GF, one of those 3 is 100% mafia.

Solid post. Except taking you out. It's fun how you imply the GF role but include bunnies in your "she's green-checked" list. Why do you do that?
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:04 GMT
#1644
On May 28 2015 20:42 disformation wrote:
Yo. plotspot.
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2015 12:56 27ninjabunnies wrote:
EBWOP: Why ARE YOU no lynching?


I am getting a bit annoyed right now. This game is basically solvable using some logic, but we are having a bunch of (presumably) town trying to make it as hard as possible to the very last minute.
I kinda want to go in a corner and cry for a bit.

Is it? Go on, do it. I'm really curious to hear you call out others.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:12 GMT
#1647
On May 28 2015 20:58 plotspot wrote:
Bats like how does SL confirm to you he is not town RB? He should just confirm, it's no risk I promise.

Nice bait

On May 28 2015 20:59 sicklucker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2015 20:54 batsnacks wrote:
SL plot thinks you're the town rb. Please tell him you're not he won't listen to me.


im not splots it was jokes

Nice answer. The trolly tone makes me feel he did not understand that plots, later planning to claim RB, was setting up a trap.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:13 GMT
#1648
On May 29 2015 02:09 disformation wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 02:04 boxerfred wrote:
On May 28 2015 20:42 disformation wrote:
Yo. plotspot.
On May 28 2015 12:56 27ninjabunnies wrote:
EBWOP: Why ARE YOU no lynching?


I am getting a bit annoyed right now. This game is basically solvable using some logic, but we are having a bunch of (presumably) town trying to make it as hard as possible to the very last minute.
I kinda want to go in a corner and cry for a bit.

Is it? Go on, do it. I'm really curious to hear you call out others.


At the time of posting that I was very sure that lynching according to my huge wall would bring town a victory. And I don't like the tone. =p

While you don't like the tone, you still didn't do what you promised.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:14 GMT
#1649
On May 29 2015 02:06 disformation wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 02:02 boxerfred wrote:
On May 28 2015 19:55 disformation wrote:
Also town rb and gf stuff:
Since batsnacks is 100% the cop and we 100% have masons, that makes it extremely unlikely we also have a town rb (that can block mafia kp!). Thus I agree that we have 2 mafia rb. Which makes it a bit more unlikely we have mafia rb/rb/gf.

By taking out the people with claims,checks, etc. the people left are:
ticktoc
boxerfred
Sulfurus
sicklucker
disformation

That is like a 2/5 to lynch mafia. If one of those is the town mason and claims, we are down to basically a 50% chance of hitting mafia.
In my case, if I take myself out (since I know I'm town) and you are the mason. I have only 3 targets left. Look at my huge wall a few pages ago.
Even if there is a GF, one of those 3 is 100% mafia.

Solid post. Except taking you out. It's fun how you imply the GF role but include bunnies in your "she's green-checked" list. Why do you do that?


In your case you can totally take yourself out and leave me in the pool.
Was trying to imply that with "I take myself out (since I know I'm town)". Should have been more clear.
"Even if there" at the time I was highly doubting the existence of a GF.

Currently very unsure. Likely to drop the role speculation stuff altogether and return to look at who looks really scummy and so on, since I feel all the role speculation stuff will lead into a trap.

Well I just did that . I think dropping the role speculation is a good thing - we have solid claims in cop and RB and mason, so all that is left is speculating about which role for which player would make sense.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:19 GMT
#1650
On May 28 2015 21:51 disformation wrote:
Shit. I'll have to think about this a lot when I get home later.
##unvote for now...

"Look I'll be around later but I don't want to give a clue about what I'm thinking although we have several role claims. So I unvote so you people can't attack me on any push."

I don't like that. On the other hand you're playing so defensively and careful since D2.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:24 GMT
#1651
On May 28 2015 23:09 Tictock wrote:
I think I got a good enough answer out of Plots to poke holes in his claim to be Town RB.

I'm a little biased here though, so I encourage Town to see if they think plots claim holds.

I believe he is Mafia RB trying to fakeclaim Town RB.

RB,RB, Goon vs Cop & Masons sounds fairly balanced, no?

On May 28 2015 23:12 Tictock wrote:
If that is true it would mean BF is likely the last scum, since plots is so sure he will CC me.

Well thought. But do you remember me doing all the SK stuff and Breshke's role call all because I didn't realize a role could be in twice? If there indeed is a second mafia RB, I would have realized that roles can be in more than once.

I think we shouldn't discard your theory so fast. A scum RB would make sense in terms of balancing, would be unlikely as hell and noone would think about it because plots is going ham with his "crazy cat lady" style. He went over the top with it, so he makes an excuse later on for it. Realizing he went too far?
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:26 GMT
#1652
On May 28 2015 23:19 plotspot wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2015 22:58 disformation wrote:
On May 28 2015 22:48 plotspot wrote:
On May 28 2015 22:37 Tictock wrote:

I notice SL and Dis are expecting me to claim mason. Honestly though, I feel like if I were a role wouldn't I be in the best position to not claim? Like most people are reading me as town anyway, if I were to claim a role it wouldn't really narrow things down at the moment.


I would have held to this thinking as well, but once the role speculation started to get too out of hand I realized it was in fact doing town more harm than good.

And thanks to a thing known as "a flip" Bre is in fact the only confirmed blue role at this moment in the game. It's up to town to decide if the people claiming roles have been acting in line with that role, and to sniff out any fake claims that have inconsistencies.

I think he still missed my question.

PLOTSPOT!!


What was your reasoning RBing him in the first place?


The "him" = Barakos


I couldn't read him that well. While I said he was town earlier, I had my doubts internally and not published. I wonder why batsnacks thought the same?


That is basically the only mention of barakos in your filter...

On May 26 2015 07:47 plotspot wrote:
Barakos: feels genuine. I believe what he says. He has an alerting but inoffensive way of expressing himself and most (if not all) his posts I can say: “hmm yeah I see the meaning behind it”. A possibly strange point which reinforce my town read on him is that he fantasizes about how scum QT looks like here. For me it’s hard to imagine scum would do that, I mean just for the thought of it at all. But here we have a townie imagining how things went in the scum QT and scott’s case is really a strange one, that leaves me wondering whether he betrayed his mates or whether they knew he had some time issues and just deal with it somehow.


Why the fuck would you roleblock a null/town read over a scum read?

I'm sorry I confused you disformation. Yes I town read him there, but I observed something about him that raised my suspicion, but since I am Town RB I may not always post what I find suspicious next just to RB it. It may give away my that I'm the RB. You see I was terrified that Mafia would discover me on the account of this post about Rels here right after she died:

Show nested quote +
On May 25 2015 07:10 plotspot wrote:
How do you know Rels wasn't Vig shot? I was about to make a case on scumreading him hard for the following points I prepared:
Rels: referring too much to others opinion, reading thread very carefully, the way RELS sets up lynch is also very comfortable (like lynch inactives), giving orders to others, thanks my post but posts no further thoughts, in comparison to Disinformation who displays overall anxiety in his reads and thoughts, Rels looks like he can handle any sudden change, there is nothing clouding his mind, others apparently have to do more than Rels,
you bet if I was Vig I would have shot her.


If for some reason Mafia thought:"who the fuck would RB this guy? Like who, wait a minute: Maybe he blocked himself to establish a story? That would look so bad. Why would he waste a block on himself? Hey maybe he blocked Rels. Yeah that's it he scumread her after she died remember? He even said he would have shot her if he was Vig. So if this guy is RB he would definitely have blocked her. Now that she is dead, no one can tell if he lied or not, but he establishes himself as town. Hehe; this guy is so dead"

Ok I'm sorry for all the mucus earlier. I apologize for my bad behavior. I shouldn't have done this. It was just I work for it all night and posted what I thought was the solution for us at 4:00 am (4hours after D3). You guys don't believe I am the RB and blocked Barakos? I can even semi-prove it, but I'd rather not as it gives away some info for possible future mafia. Please allow me some secrecy in that regard.


Could you explain the bolded part? I don't get it. And it looks suspicious.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:30 GMT
#1653
On May 28 2015 23:38 plotspot wrote:
Okay let's assume this:
Tictock Mason
plotspot RB
disformation VT
27ninjabunnies VT
sicklucker VT
batsnacks Cop
Barakos VT

---
wouldn't that leave: Sulfurus and boxerfred left as Mafia?


quality post. let's assume this:

Tictock Mason
plotspot RB
boxerfred VT
Sulfuras VT
batsnacks Cop
sicklucker VT

wouldn't that leave: ...

I can go on. Would you just concentrate on one thing? You're running in one way, bumping against the slightest shadow of a wall, turning a random degree, running off, into another ... and so on. I really want to know who you hold for scum members by now. One clear theory, with the reasoning behind it, that will not be changed (except something big happens of course) until EoD. Thus far, you're ridiculously random.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:31 GMT
#1654
On May 28 2015 23:47 27ninjabunnies wrote:
So wwe have

Cop
Town RB
MAson
Mason

IT could be possible to have these many roles in a setup.

But plots claim throws me off.
We asked MULTIPLE time for a RB claim, and it took him that long of talking when he could have outed earlier?
Also, claiming he himself was roleblocked just seems like mafia play rather than a town play there.

Could we very well have 2 mafia roleblockers?

I don't know why yall are on me. Im town.

The reason why I voted on dis was the lack of actual townieness to me day 1 and the connection with BF (who is still alive btw)

You may not like my reasoning, but that's it.

Why do you think there is a connection between me and dis? Thus far, we're just going ham on each other on a hourly basis (though I feel like we're still treating each other as gentlemen. More like fencing than drunken boxing.)
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:33 GMT
#1655
On May 29 2015 00:50 disformation wrote:
plotspot: could you explain why boxerfred was the second mason in your opinion? imo you never bothered to explain that.

Good point! He also said that I'm 100% town way before he could know, I think it was day 1 or 2. I even joked about him pocketing me. I'd like to know why he still tries to pocket me.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:35 GMT
#1656
Phew, that's it. Coming to a conclusion: plots confused the hell out of me. He's not only posting in a chaotic way, tunneling hardcore on someone who's a kind-of confirmed mason, switching reads very fast, but I also brought up some decent questions that I would like to have answered. Until that happens: ##vote plotspots. Next up on my scum list would be Disinformation or Bunnies.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 17:36 GMT
#1657
On May 29 2015 02:14 boxerfred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 02:06 disformation wrote:
On May 29 2015 02:02 boxerfred wrote:
On May 28 2015 19:55 disformation wrote:
Also town rb and gf stuff:
Since batsnacks is 100% the cop and we 100% have masons, that makes it extremely unlikely we also have a town rb (that can block mafia kp!). Thus I agree that we have 2 mafia rb. Which makes it a bit more unlikely we have mafia rb/rb/gf.

By taking out the people with claims,checks, etc. the people left are:
ticktoc
boxerfred
Sulfurus
sicklucker
disformation

That is like a 2/5 to lynch mafia. If one of those is the town mason and claims, we are down to basically a 50% chance of hitting mafia.
In my case, if I take myself out (since I know I'm town) and you are the mason. I have only 3 targets left. Look at my huge wall a few pages ago.
Even if there is a GF, one of those 3 is 100% mafia.

Solid post. Except taking you out. It's fun how you imply the GF role but include bunnies in your "she's green-checked" list. Why do you do that?


In your case you can totally take yourself out and leave me in the pool.
Was trying to imply that with "I take myself out (since I know I'm town)". Should have been more clear.
"Even if there" at the time I was highly doubting the existence of a GF.

Currently very unsure. Likely to drop the role speculation stuff altogether and return to look at who looks really scummy and so on, since I feel all the role speculation stuff will lead into a trap.

Well I just did that . I think dropping the role speculation is a good thing - we have solid claims in cop and RB and mason, so all that is left is speculating about which role for which player would make sense.

I feel like by now, I need to correct this post.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 22:33 GMT
#1707
On May 29 2015 07:11 Tictock wrote:
I'm a little on the fence about BF's rapid fire posting on page 83. There is a lot of stuff being said but I'm not sure how many real points of deeper thought I can see, it's more like hes just reacting. That's NAI, I'm just having a hard time reading through it kus it's a bit all over the place.

@ BF
You mention you brought up questions you wanted answered. I feel like i lost them in your like 20 post spam. Can you restate please?

I also want to remind you that while i for a moment considered you and plots as potential scum team, I dismissed it the next post. It was only based on what plots has said, and if he is scum it could have been a move to push you into the limelight after he gets lynched.

I'd also like you to critically look at the 3 claims made today, you've been wanting to do roles stuff for the past few phases, now is your chance. Look through each claim and tell me what makes you think the claim could be legit and what could not be legit. If you need to get more info to reach a conclusion, now is the time to ask.


Questions:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1642
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1654
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1652

Regarding the reminder: I'm still riding the bunnies/disinformation/plotspots train. I won't get off that train easily.
Regarding the three claims: mason claim feels genuine and true, no logical flaws, everything's fine. Cop claim makes sense, too. Good calls, not liking the scum read on Sulfuras but hey that's how it is. The town checks on bunnies and barakos are confusing but would be easily explained with a GF. Can't see a scum lean in Barakos, that would leave it to bunnies.

The Plotspots claim is weak because Barakos revealed that he was blocked before plots revealed his role. Then, plots went full yolo. So: strong claim on mason (which I support), okay(tendence to strong) claim on cop, weak claim on RB.

I note by now that a lurky tactic is far better then really explaining what you are thinking. Dis, bunnies, barakos and sulf do a great job with that thus far.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 22:39 GMT
#1711
Going to sleep now. Presumably as today, I won't have much time to post. I'll post something when I wake up (or at least lurk over the posts), gotta go to work then. So seeya in roughly 20hrs from now on. I'll be around EoD.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 22:41 GMT
#1712
On May 29 2015 07:39 Tictock wrote:
@ BF
Thanks for your thoughts and reposting your questions.

I'm around for a bit longer, but then i need to get some RL stuff done.

Anything for me before I go?
^This is to everyone

I'd like to know about your scum calls by now. Since you're a confirmed town (for me), they weigh a lot. I'd especially like to hear about what you think about my reads of Dis/bunnies/plots.
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 28 2015 22:42 GMT
#1713
On May 29 2015 07:39 disformation wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 07:33 boxerfred wrote:
Questions:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1642
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1654
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1652


First question was alreay answered by me here:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 02:06 disformation wrote:
On May 29 2015 02:02 boxerfred wrote:
On May 28 2015 19:55 disformation wrote:
Also town rb and gf stuff:
Since batsnacks is 100% the cop and we 100% have masons, that makes it extremely unlikely we also have a town rb (that can block mafia kp!). Thus I agree that we have 2 mafia rb. Which makes it a bit more unlikely we have mafia rb/rb/gf.

By taking out the people with claims,checks, etc. the people left are:
ticktoc
boxerfred
Sulfurus
sicklucker
disformation

That is like a 2/5 to lynch mafia. If one of those is the town mason and claims, we are down to basically a 50% chance of hitting mafia.
In my case, if I take myself out (since I know I'm town) and you are the mason. I have only 3 targets left. Look at my huge wall a few pages ago.
Even if there is a GF, one of those 3 is 100% mafia.

Solid post. Except taking you out. It's fun how you imply the GF role but include bunnies in your "she's green-checked" list. Why do you do that?


In your case you can totally take yourself out and leave me in the pool.
Was trying to imply that with "I take myself out (since I know I'm town)". Should have been more clear.
"Even if there" at the time I was highly doubting the existence of a GF.

Currently very unsure. Likely to drop the role speculation stuff altogether and return to look at who looks really scummy and so on, since I feel all the role speculation stuff will lead into a trap.


Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 07:33 boxerfred wrote:
[...]Dis, bunnies, barakos and sulf do a great job with that thus far.


Thanks.

Regarding this, I still don't get why you say "there's possibly a BF" but at the same time say "bunnies is green". Might just be an implication of "well green-reads can be gf" or a huge blunder from a scum member

However, this is it for today, good night!
boxerfred
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Germany8360 Posts
May 29 2015 16:41 GMT
#1789
On May 29 2015 21:52 Tictock wrote:
Last thought before I go away.

Nobody claimed RB until N2.

This was well after I started an unhealthy discussion regarding setup speculation.

Could the RB claim just be a scum claim? Barakos and plots being scum members, thus pretending to be blocker and blocked? Maybe besides scum RB, no RB is in.
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