EPTI'm actually considering both SL and Bara as alternative lynches.
Newbie Student Mafia X - Page 114
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
I'm actually considering both SL and Bara as alternative lynches. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Try and answer those questions I just posted to SL. Tell me that you really think plots is an RB this game. | ||
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
On June 02 2015 03:28 Tictock wrote: @27nb Try and answer those questions I just posted to SL. Tell me that you really think plots is an RB this game. Based on the blocks he has done this game, i want to say he is another mafia RB, fakeclaiming being RB, or just a dumb town rb. I want to believe one of the first two. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On June 02 2015 03:22 sicklucker wrote: If I needed a "mislynch" why would I have to work for it? boxerfreds already getting lynched so why would I bring this up now. I was about to vote you before I saw this connection I am a bit tired, so correct me if I am failing at reading... but are you calling boxerfred a misslynch by implication here? I though boxerfred and me were supposed to be mafia not misslynches? Will be really back after dinner, so brb.  | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On June 02 2015 02:45 Tictock wrote: So explain to me SL. How does tryhard Chart making Plots, think Rels is Scum? How does tryhard super tunneled (like so many of us) plots give such bad reasons for RBing Bara? How does ANYONE listen to you N3 and RB Bats? Again my Summary post for review + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2015 01:15 Tictock wrote: I really don't know how I can prove to you guys that I'm not just tunneled here. I've thought this thing out, it makes sense. That's why I'm so focused on it. In case you need a reminder and don't want to do more filter diving, here is all my posts today related to my cases. I really was hoping to see people at least giving me arguments why I could be wrong. Instead I just see people being afraid to check if a blue claim was false, and not being able to check if a Greencheck was false. Again I'm not talking about flips here, I'm talking about inconsistencies in peoples play. Main Case (plots and Bara) + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2015 08:02 Tictock wrote: Ok guys, I know you thought Crazy Tunneltoc had finally given up and was sulking somewhere in defeat or something. But you can never vanquish the Tunneltoc! I'm back and ready to blow your minds. I have no way to prove this, so it's really just for my own amusement, but I prepared these posts with the intent on putting them up more or less after D4 starts. Some predictions: + Show Spoiler + -plots and Bara have been pointing fingers at me for having given up since my "plot" (get it) didn't work -prob some accusations that I'm not even a Mason and that Bre was solo -plots RB was on Bats or myself, really it could be anyone though. I'm pretty sure plots RBs the kill target here, but really all plots has to do here is say that the person he RB'd is scum when they say they weren't -Idea is to have the whole D4 revolve around this argument. Remember, it doesn't matter if plots gets lynched as long as it happens in such a way to secure towncred for Bara Obv scum killed Bats. If they killed anyone else it was to protect plots RB claim. Can't see them leaving bats though, I'm sure he was trying to check plots N3 and they can't have that. Honestly I can't imagine town staying fooled by this after I pointed everything out before EoD, but I'd rather not drag things out anymore. So here I am unveiling my case. This will be a multi-post case, so be warned. I may leave a summary post depending on how long this gets or how motivated I stay. Main Points -Plots is scum. This is a short version of my scumread on him, but I'll expand on it.+ Show Spoiler + He's been Tryharding this whole game but never brings anything of worth to the game. D1 it's all the graphics. D2 defending SL from Me and getting all buddy buddy. He also blows up over nothing (claims I misunderstood a post) attacking my reading ability & fabricating all sorts of ways I'm not reading him right. He does all that instead of restating his thoughts like I ask him to. D3 total tunnel on me, is 100% convinced he can make me look like shit kus he doesn't think I'm mason (for some reason he's really sure he picked up Mason on BF). When that doesn't work he falls back on Sul but keeps pushing me. -Plots fabricates a 2nd RB role. He uses my own mistake of bringing up setup speculation to his teams advantage. -Setup is really RB, Goon, GF vs Masons(2) & Cop. This is a balanced setup and perfectly normal in a newbie game. -This RB invention isn't a solid idea until D2, which is why plots claims it then to "soft claim" his role. -Bara has to be N2 RB so that they can push this idea, AND! it gives them both instant towncred enough to force town to mislynch D3. -Scum plan going forward is to have Plots keep sticking his neck out and causing as much confusion as possible. Plots is expendable as long as he creates a good smokescreen for Bara. While Bara is safe to hold back and blend. At this point Bara can just keep sheeping town like he did D3, his cred is that solid as long as there isn't anyone crazy enough to thing a blue claim could be false and push it... Filter Dive on Plots + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2015 08:03 Tictock wrote: You guys didn't like my suspicions of plots. I don't blame you, I know I've gone overboard in many ways this game. That tunnel on SL, the proposition of SK being a thing when I clearly didn't understand what the goals of the role was. Maybe I have been tunneled on plots, but you know the saying "Being paranoid does not mean your wrong" Let me walk you through plots play, as I see it. Indulge my thinking for just a little bit please, try it on for size. If you don't like it feel free to say so but it had better be more than just attacks on my character or ability. You have to target my reasoning here. Going mild on the quotes here, or at least I started out trying to go mild >.< Do your own Fing reading if you want to verify every little point I make. Also this got Big really fast. Spoilered to keep thread readable. + Show Spoiler + Plots if you recall, starts this game seeming to have forgotten he was playing. He then returns to the game so ready to go that he does some crazy spreadsheeting of everyone's posts. These look impressive, like they took a lot of time. In fact they took so much time plots is never able to do full reads on everyone. Finally D2 he finishes his analysis of D1 and posts all the results, along with helpful instructions on how to use the charts. That's a lot of work right? Like it really is impressive... but how likely is it to really give meaningful information? Plots used his analysis in detail in his reads D1, which only had the first 6? hours of the game involved (he posted these about MidDay btw). But look at his reads AFTER he finished his analysis, he posted them here just a little after he give us his finished charts. Huh, he sure doesn't use much of anything from the charts does he? Almost like he doesn't believe they are useful either. All that work, he doesn't even try to make a full set of reads on everybody from them? Plots then goes pretty carefree, like he's done his job. He has. Nobody, well almost nobody, would dare scum read someone with all that work under his belt. So he starts chatting with SL, being all jokey and chummy. A decent pocket attempt if i ever have seen one (I think it's actually my first ^.^), SL has been under constant pressure and def needs a friend at this point in the game. That is also likely why plots has been weakly townreading SL the whole game. This point always stood out to me as odd. Sl is a very hard player to read, especially early on. If plots is as tryhard noob as he looks from the charts, how is he SO sure SL is town? Here is where things start to get interesting. I blunder in, super scumming plots over this interaction with SL. Clearly my attention is focused on SL at this point, but the fact that I call out his pocket attempt is bad for plots. So he decides to try and undermine my townyness. Do note at this point plots had only posted 2 reads on me, one null and one as clear town. Plots starts to get super mad at my points against him. I first call him out for his read on Rels. Remember that? The first thing plots did D2 was give a full paragraph scum read on the guy who just flipped green. His reasoning, well I was working on this, might as well finish it and post it, shows people I'm trying. Why would town post a read like this after a flip? It adds nothing to be discussed, it wastes space, it gives slim towncred, and it's downright weird. Now I definitely read all plots posts here a few times already. While there are a few places where plots is right and I did misread his posts. + Show Spoiler + Honest question, who finds plots posts easy to read? Other stuff is going on in his filter right now as well. He gives a read on SL and 27nb. The reas on SL is not bad actually, plots gives lots of reasoning and takes into consideration other opinions, odd though that he now thinks SL is shifty when plots has been claiming he's pretty town up till now. His read ends with a bunch of questions, which plots later claims were trying to get people to think SL might be a role. His read on 27nb is total crap on the other hand. It is just sheeping everyone else's opinion. Yet plots is willing to vote 27nb, and then later swap to BM for no reason other than BM voting 27nb. Still, after the initial case I post, I do start to make efforts to talk to plots. I ask him to give details to backup his claims/defense, admit I might have been jumping the gun, and even admit that maybe I am just misunderstanding him. In this last point I especially admit, I mean it's really easy to have a misunderstanding. So there was a break in our exchanges and that let him get out those reads. Late in the day, I post about more things I don't like about plots. Again plots gets super defensive, this time really attacking my ability to read. The post that really stood out to me in this exchange was this one. That post is a bunch of garbled nonsense. The point of it is to suggest several different ways that I MUST have been misreading plots and is largely putting words into my mouth. Why does plots go through all this effort? Why not just tell me what he really meant not what I'm misreading from his post. I think hes trying to slander me, make me appear to be as unreliable as he can. This covers up to N2 and is less than Half! plots filter. N2 starts somewhere just after pg 4 in plots filter. Plots now decides to put out his RB claim, well he claims that HE was RB's N1. This is later said to be a "soft claim" for his RB role. In fact right after plots says he got RB'd he start talking about it like it HAD to have come from town. At first this looks strange, though it does fit with him later claiming RB. After this though, plots really starts to focus on me. He blows up once again about our misunderstanding (I did push him in not the most diplomatic way) but even though I'm CLEARLY asking him to clear things up, he posts this which is largely just what he already posted. Page 5 of plots filter starts with him responding to me answering his questions to me. He basically just calls me dumb and says I have no way to know that SL isn't a role. I had reached this conclusion on my own, however Bre helped me solidify it. Feel free to ask me why I thought this later, this post is big enough. Shortly after that Plots starts his spam posting for the day. Some of the tunnel on me starts, but breaks off to throw out some stuff about roles and keeps doing this Nolynch crap for literally no reason. The whole way Plots claims his role is a little weird. He doesn't come out with it, he slowly teases it, as though he's giving town some great secret. He also uses this to try and be "secretive" about his motives for RBing who he did. He does eventually offer this, On May 28 2015 21:36 plotspot wrote: I RBed Rels, but she died that night. Remember that I scumread her. I even said I would have shot her if I was vig. So I claimed that I was RBed by a roleblocker N2 to tell town that we have a RB, but there wasn't any discussion worthwhile about it, you also didn't see me press the issue there. What an odd choice to RB N1. Sure, ok Plots did scumread Rels and mentioned the Vig thing here, On May 25 2015 07:10 plotspot wrote: How do you know Rels wasn't Vig shot? I was about to make a case on scumreading him hard for the following points I prepared: Rels: referring too much to others opinion, reading thread very carefully, the way RELS sets up lynch is also very comfortable (like lynch inactives), giving orders to others, thanks my post but posts no further thoughts, in comparison to Disinformation who displays overall anxiety in his reads and thoughts, Rels looks like he can handle any sudden change, there is nothing clouding his mind, others apparently have to do more than Rels, you bet if I was Vig I would have shot her. Another odd post. First how in the hell does Plots think a Vig shot Rels, because plots would if he were vig? He is also so sure Rels is scum here, but are his reasons good? And... wait this is right at start of D2, before plots has even finished his charts... but I see no evidence of him using his charts in this read once again... Would a Town RB, who spends all D1 making charts on activity, use this reasoning to block Rels? Well THIS plots doesnt, rather than use the tool he's spent so much time making he throws out these NAI points about Rels to scum her and say she was a good target here. Still not convinced plots RB claim doesn't hold up? What about his N2 target, Barakos? Well as Dis points out in this post On May 28 2015 22:58 disformation wrote: That is basically the only mention of barakos in your filter... Why the fuck would you roleblock a null/town read over a scum read? Plots has only been town or nullreading Bara all game. I think plots reasons for his RB's is very much a good thing to be looking at. I spent a fair portion of D3 asking plots why Bara was his 2nd RB. He only ever mentions his RB on bara in these 2 posts one is his super weak answer to my question. On May 28 2015 21:58 plotspot wrote: Of course I RBed Rels and Barakos. Barakos non-chalantly mentions he has been RBed? Lol if he was mafia I believe he should hang out in the thread a bit instead of expressing it like this. On May 28 2015 22:48 plotspot wrote: I couldn't read him that well. While I said he was town earlier, I had my doubts internally and not published. I wonder why batsnacks thought the same? (he technically mentions the Bara RB in other posts as well, but they are just like that first quote. "Bara's RB claim proves I'm RB guys!" Now plots does post this On May 29 2015 00:38 plotspot wrote: Also it's impossible for a mafia to think of such a ploy. He would risk his fucking life making up being RB, when he didn't even know there was one. Guess what would happen to mafia if he makes up such a ploy, saying he was RB N1? I would crush him. It's too dangerous, no mafia will ever do that. I on the other hand could because only I knew I targeted Rels and "luckily" she died for that ploy to work. Imagine if I was to RB someone and he survives that Night. It would make this ploy impossible, it would have led to a fucking mess which mafia will have ultimately used to force me out. Which is true, and a valid point. Why would scum invent such a play? What does it benefit them? I will attempt to explain the scum logic here in another post, for now this is actually a good point. This does bring me to the one point that would destroy my theory. If there is a 3rd person who gets RB's then I'm absolutely wrong here. Starting here plots starts to push numbers to explain why votes should go certain ways. He also starts to bring back the possibility of me and Sul being the scum team. He is also continuing to post setup speculations, keeping them broad and only suggests more "oddball" setups. Towards EoD plots does more numbers to push votes on Sul, these make no sense though and are really just put out to keep town unsure of what is the best play. There is more in the filter, but it is more recent and this has ballooned to be an epic wall of text. Hopefully I've made my points clear. Detailed look at how this Play makes sense from scum + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2015 08:03 Tictock wrote: Whew, still with me? At this point I want to point out that a NORMAL newbie setup is most likely, regardless of anything that has been said this game it is very unlikely that a bizarre setup would be used in a newbie game. At the time of me writing this Bre is the only confirmed Blue role, Bats will probably have been killed and confirmed Cop so D4 is going to be all about plots vs me. Mason vs Town RB, which role makes more sense? I propose that our game is setup like so: RB, Goon, and GF vs Masons & Cop Plots claim for RB is fake, and I poked holes in his claim in my last post. Ok now lets talk about how what I'm suggesting makes sense from a scum perspective as this may not look like a good play at first. - The Scum play D3 - Imagine you are scum. You lost your RB Day 1 thanks to a somewhat lucky train by town. Since then town has been sidetracked by suspecting inactive people, or focused on SL. D2 went ok since Town is still largely off your trail, but there is one guy who is bringing suspicion to one of your team. You know you need 3 more mislynches to secure a victory. It seems like it's the right time for a bold play. There has been some setup speculation in thread, since this game uses a semi-open setup scum!You knows just a little more than town, you know your own setup. What if there was a way to confuse town further about setup stuff, WHILE still getting info about the roles that are out there? Thus the fake RB role is born. This fake role serves to confuse town, forces other blues to claim (the info to town becomes too important now), AND manages to give towncred to the scum team since they can hide behind these claims. "But Tunneltoc? Doesn't this play fall apart the next night?" I know your asking that now, but hear me out. With this play Scum is almost guaranteed one of their mislynches (I did my best to stop it, but town wanted to believe all the blue claims too much), and gives them a solid shot at winning the game. D4 will start off with nobody claiming they got RB'd N3. What would you do as scum in this position? I know what i would do, pick a target D4 and say, "hey I roleblocked you!" when they deny it you go "ok well then your scum! clearly you want to confuse town and make them not believe my role!" Will plots do this to me? It seems like he HAS to. Plots and Bara as a team could not kill me N3 as it would give too much credence to my theories, besides that Bats could potentially check plots N3 so he needs to die. This is risky. It means that plots is very likely to get lynched at some point. But as Scum, do you care? Isn't it worth plots sticking his head out like that if it means 1 surefire mislynch and a potential 2nd one the next day if you can throw enough shit on a player to get them scummed? At the very least plots would go out in a fury of confusion and misinformation, all while Bara can freely gauge town safe behind a greencheck (I haven't pointed this out yet, Bara didn't claim he was RB'd until well after Bats said he had been greenchecked) and bus plots when needed. In other words the whole play is to spread misinformation for as long as possible while distracting Town from Bara so he can potentially ride out the game while town keeps lynching inactives. Last thought here, So then given all this, why would plots suggest Bara as GF? The whole play is built around the idea of protecting Bara. This might actually be the only flaw I see in my thinking. It could just be a slip, but it does seem like something plots would be very careful about in this position. Still he was responding to my pressure to explain why he would RB Bara N2. It is possible he let slip a bit of his own thinking when trying to deflect my pressure and questions. When plots mentions Bara as GF it's used to counter my thinking at the time, that plots was mafia RB. It's a hole, but it's not much compared to how well my theory holds up everywhere else. Vote analysis and 1st look at Bara + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2015 08:03 Tictock wrote: Last post in this series. This one addresses Plots and Bara's votes all 3 days and I do a little filter diving on Bara. Bara's filter is much shorter than plots so you should read it yourself, I'm just going to point out a few things I noticed in it. D1 Votes: Both Plots and Bara avoid voting with the majority. They keep their votes on Dis. Bara opens the game with his vote on Dis and lets it ride all day. His reasons are easy to find, it's like the first thing in his filter, they are all based off Bat's Iching. Bara never mentions scott, but he does suggest multiple times that he dislikes lynching inactives as it feels "coinflippy" Plots doesn't do much D1, but he does give reads on Dis (his vote) and scott. Nothing too convincing from these guys as to why they voted Dis over scott. D2 Votes: Reminder that we Lynched VT Bill Murray D2, votes prob mean less than D1 Bara does repeat that he dislikes voting inactives again, also similar to D1 he places his vote on SL and lets it ride all day. Plots gives us a read on 27nb here, but it's pretty useless and is all sheep just disguised as his own read. He then swaps his vote to BM Again clearly sheeping. D3 Votes: Bara, literally just sheeps Bats. No more mention of inactives being coinflippy, no real thought. Posts some numbers at one point to try and show there is much better chance to hit Mafia by voting 27nb or Sul over plots. Plots does some nonsense voting No Lynch at first, but later joins the vote on Sul. Unlike Bara he does show his reasoning, it's pathetic Barakos & Plotspot: Scum Team? Clearly these 2 have some pretty poor reasoning in all of their votes. I found it particularly interesting how Bara drops his own thoughts on SL and just sheeps Bats. When I ask him near EoD why he still thinks SL and Dis could be scum he give me this So I ask, well what do you find scummy about those 2? Why are they cleared by role stuff, they were never checked? By the way, this post from Bara is what got me onto the idea that he was teamed with plots Notice how he gives literally no chance for plots to be scum, but some fraction chance of everyone else? Did anyone notice that D3 there were only 2 players to claim I was defending Sul? Bara thinks so in that last post, and plots did here Was my post on Sul here, really that much of a defense? Wasn't I really just asking for good reasons behind our lynch target, and saying I don't see those reasons in Sul? Plots and Bara were the only 2 people EoD3 to heavily post numbers to support voting Sul or bunnies. This point might be weaker, but did anyone notice how the 2 of them were lurking a lot around EoD? When I start posting my theories about them, they BOTH suddenly appeared in thread giving me shit for it. It seemed clear to me that they were reacting in panic since I had suddenly broken their ploy. Could just be coincidence, but these 2 were fairly active EoD, much morose than any other EoD. Actually filter Diving on Bara wasn't as revealing as I would have thought. I pulled up a few points that I already linked and quoted above. Bara makes a fair bit of towny posts throughout the days, his D1 vote and reasoning were crap but besides that his filter looks ok. As we got into EoD D3 and I throw out the notion that plots and Bara are the the scum team, Bara's posts start to look worse. It really wasn't until the post I quoted above that I started to suspect Bara. This is why I'm still pushing plots as my vote, and why I did so D3 as well. Plots is more clearly scum than Bara. However if plots does flip Goon like I think he will then Bara becomes confirmed GF. Plots flips anything else, and my case on Bara is broken. 2nd look at Bara, this time assuming Plots is Town RB (untunneled) + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2015 20:04 Tictock wrote: Actually 27nb asks a fair question. Why am I switching my vote to Bara? Well, you guys were probably right. I may have been focusing plots too hard. So I will make this case under the assumption that plots is Town RB. Greenchecked, but is he GF? So rather than tunnel him, I decided to follow his thinking. N2 plots blocked Bara becuase he thought he saw scum tendencies in his play. Having reviewed some things, I agree. I think plots backed off too early, Bara claiming the RB could easily be a ploy to keep people from guessing he is GF. Remember how he said it? Like an hour after Day phase had started. Remember the Day started with Bats claiming cop and stating his checks. Whats to stop GF!Bara from seeing his PM and seeing he got greenchecked as well? This gives him the perfect opportunity to fool not just one, but 2 blue roles, just by stating that he got RB'd. I know that in it self isn't enough to prove much, but it IS possible. Votes Remember Bara's votes D1 and D2? He voted Dis and then SL and gave pretty decent cases on them. Dis + Show Spoiler + On May 22 2015 16:49 Barakos wrote: Morning everyone! I'm here now and almost done to catching up. First thoughts: I like breschke pushing/tunneling sl, to prevent him from being lazy. Makes breschke look town in my eyes. What I didn't like was disformations filter. All he has done so far is posting fluff and agreeing to people but not contributing in any form, except a very weak and non-commiting push on bm for lurking. And then there are these 2 posts: In the bolded parts, he explains what good townplay should look like, and what he would like to have done. And that is all he does... he explains and doesn't follow up with anything, that would be good townplay... he just shows, that he knows, what town should do but does actually nothing. But since he shows, that he knows, what good townplay looks like, he is still "looking good" and tries to give the impression, that he is town but just hasn't had the opportunity to really do stuff. So for now my vote is on him. ##vote disformation SL + Show Spoiler + On May 26 2015 19:39 Barakos wrote: soo... reread the thread... one thing i found kinda funny: I make a post about the votes not meaning much, because it may very well have been planned to vote for unmotivated scum-scott and a few hours after disformation (my stongest scum-read at that moment) makes a huge post saying he analyzed the votes and stuff... it is almost as if you try to antagonize me, disfo.. Anyways... I doubt scum-disfo would do this, since i was the only one pushing him really hard and scum would at this point try to not draw more of my attention by actively trying to argue with me... so for now, disfo moves down from the top spot of my lynch-list. 27nb: looks not so good. was never under my suspicion, because I felt the exchange we had about sulfurus and her reaction to the case disformation made against her. Starts to look worse now. I like tictocks point, about her trying to draw attention to the people voting scott by asking, if there was mafia between them and her promising a big reads-post and not delivering also looks bad. sl: oh god, what a mess... it is almost as if he tries to confuse everybody... "i may or may not have a green check on barakos" "i may be cop or doctor" "i am vanilla town" Like wtf this play looks bad on so many levels. If you are vanilla town it is like the worst possible play to claim you have a green check on someone whose filter you haven't even read and you actually say, you can't read him properly... ok... he retracted in the end... i get that. Next thing, why this play was bad as it can be: He might very well have provoked a counter-claim by the real cop/doc... this is a newbie-game after all and if there were a actual cop/doc in the game an excited newbie might have very well counterclaimed right on the spot. So him going all "i am role x/y" and then after some hours of waiting and no counterclaims saying "lol, just kidding i trolled you all, i am a plain vt." looks very much like rolehunting and hoping someone actually bites and counterclaims. Also there is this quote by him going like "masons, i know who you are, you might as well come out and claim."... next occasion he is rolehunting. but when boxerfred has a theory about a cop having a redcheck and therefor trying to start a wagon, he instantly calls him out on in. So it's ok, when he does it... but only, when he does it. Other things I don't like about his spammy, mostly oneliner-filter: He trys to paint himself in a towny light with the most absurd reasons, like the votecount for example. He puts himself in the spot of a town hero by saying it was his vote and him persuading batsnacks to vote scott that finally swung the vote to lynch scott and not disformation, and when he is confronted with a reasonable arguement, that invalidates this arguement (my post that those votes may very well have been preplanned), his reaction is "lol you know, what mafia says in their qt? you are mafia!" You are not mafia for thinking about, what mafia would do in their qt, and what might be their plans... that's a natural thing for town to do - you try to figure them out and you are paranoid about everything that isn't actually confirmed. And this is one point where sl contradicts himself... see this quote: He refers to this post: Not only does he conveniantly forget, that he was throwing dirt at me for entering the thread at the same time as rels (a confirmed town, he also threw dirt at) and not sulfurus, he is also completely fine with speculating about mafia-qts, when it fits his agenda. Only, when it is not fitting for him, he devaluates it by saying the person speculating is mafia for knowing too much about the scum-qt. Also him disregarding the possibility of a serialkiller to devalue votes vs him again lacks critical thinking on his part and ignoring the possibility of a townaction, that negated one kp at night. the chance isn't the biggest, i will agree to that, but there is still a possibility, that something like this happened. So to sum it up: SLs behavior looks very anti-town to me + he has double standarts, when it comes to certain behaviours and lacks town-trades like a certain amount of paranoia and critical thinking. I am totally fine with lynching him today. ##vote sicklucker I even asked Bara why D3 he was voting Sul. He clearly stated, So he has his own thoughts, but wants to sheep Bats? This seems odd from someone so attached to their own thoughts before. It makes sense if Bara is GF though, he wants to keep people thinking he's town and supports Bats to support his checks. Now D4 again, we see Bara isn't targeting SL, why? He said D3 he still thinks he's scum. I'm wondering if this post had anything to do with it. Did he see SL town reading him and not want to piss him off? That's the only thing that makes sense to me. I find Bara pretty scummy here, his votes and cases especially. I also know I'm not the only one, plots RB'd Bara N2 because he saw similarities in Bara's play this game to a scum game of his. I don't like meta reads, but Bara has been a little too sensible when talking to people and interacting. Yet his cases tend to fall flat, like he's not putting in the same effort. So yea, Bara is a good lynch today. | ||
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sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
On June 02 2015 03:31 disformation wrote: I am a bit tired, so correct me if I am failing at reading... but are you calling boxerfred a misslynch by implication here? I though boxerfred and me were supposed to be mafia not misslynches? Will be really back after dinner, so brb. no bunnies is and im being sarcastic | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I have to start getting ready for work. If you have not responded to my questions I posed to you by the time I'm ready to post my last thoughts for EoD I will have to assume you are ignoring me. Last chance to give me a read opinion. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
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sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On June 02 2015 03:26 sicklucker wrote: My thought process is everyone but you and those two are town. And those two voted together at the same time as a mafia would vote. Its very simple but I dont need alot when I already narrowed it down to 3 people .Simply answers simple people TBH I am currently thinking of a very similiar scenario, but with you and boxerfred... wait. Could it be that boxerfred and barakos are our mafia team? Like barakos never did a read on boxerfred? I just skimmed his filter, but I didn't see a solid read on boxerfred... Look at this: On June 01 2015 20:49 Barakos wrote: some things I'd like to add, since I'm going to be on the road to my parents (my fathers birthday tomorrow) this afternoon and don't know, if I'll make it in time to write all this down before eod/eon and well - maybe I get lynched or killed.(I will not fight that lynch... if there are enough people, who think I'm a good lynch, then fine. have it your way, I'll be delighted to see tictock fall off his high horse, he thinks he is riding). I reread 27nb, bf and disfo. 27nb seems the least involved and doesn't seem to be following the thread unless she needs to. I highly prefer her as lynch today before the other two. In case she flips red, I think there is a connection between her and disfo. Disfo made the case on her D1 at a time, where she had enough time to defend. They voted each other from time to time but in the end disfos vote never was on her at EoD, although he twice had the chance to be the vote, that makes the difference. So this is something one has to look at, if she flips red. An other thing, that happens, if she flips red, is that bf is cleared in my opinion, because both D2 and D3 he was on bunnies, although it was both times a close vote. Especially D3 he could have easily switched with the claimed cop but he didn't. So - in case bunnies is red, bf is most likely green. If she flips green, then well... shit. Votes mean nothing, since then both D2 and D3 were lynches between two townies and mafia couldn't care less, who to vote. An other thing I would like to say: In case I get lynched, I want you all to make as much fun of TT as you can. His read on plots and me is bad and you should make him feel bad. Still, TT is the 2nd mason and therefore confirmed town... so make fun of him, but don't vote him. Mafia probably won't lynch him either, since his reads are so bad, that it doesn't matter, that he is confirmed town, so try to work with him, because if I get lynched you are in lylo the next day. If you have lynched me, plots is confirmed town in my eyes, because a setup rb,rb,goon doesn't make sense vs a single town cop. Just my opinion and that's also, why I am so sure of plots being town. I'd like to believe in a 2-rb-mafiateam, cause that would make bunnies and me confirmed, since there wouldn't be a gf in this setup, but I said it before and I'll repeat myself... I don't believe in a setup like this. Last thing - on sl: I haven't reread sls filter indepth (too long for reading it at work). I think he is the worst lynch today, but in case that bunnies flips green, the scum-team imho is SL + disfo. His posting has decreased significnatly since breshke is dead (bats said, he posts less, once he feels safe) and mostly all of his reasons, why he calls himself confirmed town are weak at best (scotts filter, the votes on scott, etc...) but this is only in case bunnies flips green today. He says he reread boxerfred but only points out that bf is probably green if bunnies is red... Am I finally going crazy? | ||
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
～ Vote Count ～ boxerfred (3) : sicklucker, disformation, 27ninjabunnies 27ninjabunnies (2) : boxerfred, Barakos Barakos (1) : Tictock disformation (0) : plotspot (0) : Not voting (1) : plotspot Currently, boxerfred is set to be lynched! The day phase will end at Monday, Jun 01 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00), about 3 hours from this post. remain as you are reading this. Remember, voting is mandatory! Place your votes in this thread. If you see any vote out of place, kill yourself. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
And then the post I just posted. He had a few small interaction with boxerfred, but never actually pushed him? | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
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sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
At this point you have to choices on how to deal with me. You can 1) Disregard my case/ignore me - Which means you either think I'm scum. Or that my points have no validity to them because I'm so tunneled. 2) Take a look at my case(s) - You think I'm town and and MIGHT be onto something. Sure I could be wrong, but as Town you owe it to yourself to check out any ideas and judge for yourself. I'm not scum, I don't think I need to prove that. I might have been tunneled, so I LISTENED. I really did, I saw everyone saying "you're too tunneled on plots" or "it makes sense to push Bara first" and decided to review my thinking. That lead me to this post. + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2015 20:04 Tictock wrote: Actually 27nb asks a fair question. Why am I switching my vote to Bara? Well, you guys were probably right. I may have been focusing plots too hard. So I will make this case under the assumption that plots is Town RB. Greenchecked, but is he GF? So rather than tunnel him, I decided to follow his thinking. N2 plots blocked Bara becuase he thought he saw scum tendencies in his play. Having reviewed some things, I agree. I think plots backed off too early, Bara claiming the RB could easily be a ploy to keep people from guessing he is GF. Remember how he said it? Like an hour after Day phase had started. Remember the Day started with Bats claiming cop and stating his checks. Whats to stop GF!Bara from seeing his PM and seeing he got greenchecked as well? This gives him the perfect opportunity to fool not just one, but 2 blue roles, just by stating that he got RB'd. I know that in it self isn't enough to prove much, but it IS possible. Votes Remember Bara's votes D1 and D2? He voted Dis and then SL and gave pretty decent cases on them. Dis + Show Spoiler + On May 22 2015 16:49 Barakos wrote: Morning everyone! I'm here now and almost done to catching up. First thoughts: I like breschke pushing/tunneling sl, to prevent him from being lazy. Makes breschke look town in my eyes. What I didn't like was disformations filter. All he has done so far is posting fluff and agreeing to people but not contributing in any form, except a very weak and non-commiting push on bm for lurking. And then there are these 2 posts: In the bolded parts, he explains what good townplay should look like, and what he would like to have done. And that is all he does... he explains and doesn't follow up with anything, that would be good townplay... he just shows, that he knows, what town should do but does actually nothing. But since he shows, that he knows, what good townplay looks like, he is still "looking good" and tries to give the impression, that he is town but just hasn't had the opportunity to really do stuff. So for now my vote is on him. ##vote disformation SL + Show Spoiler + On May 26 2015 19:39 Barakos wrote: soo... reread the thread... one thing i found kinda funny: I make a post about the votes not meaning much, because it may very well have been planned to vote for unmotivated scum-scott and a few hours after disformation (my stongest scum-read at that moment) makes a huge post saying he analyzed the votes and stuff... it is almost as if you try to antagonize me, disfo.. Anyways... I doubt scum-disfo would do this, since i was the only one pushing him really hard and scum would at this point try to not draw more of my attention by actively trying to argue with me... so for now, disfo moves down from the top spot of my lynch-list. 27nb: looks not so good. was never under my suspicion, because I felt the exchange we had about sulfurus and her reaction to the case disformation made against her. Starts to look worse now. I like tictocks point, about her trying to draw attention to the people voting scott by asking, if there was mafia between them and her promising a big reads-post and not delivering also looks bad. sl: oh god, what a mess... it is almost as if he tries to confuse everybody... "i may or may not have a green check on barakos" "i may be cop or doctor" "i am vanilla town" Like wtf this play looks bad on so many levels. If you are vanilla town it is like the worst possible play to claim you have a green check on someone whose filter you haven't even read and you actually say, you can't read him properly... ok... he retracted in the end... i get that. Next thing, why this play was bad as it can be: He might very well have provoked a counter-claim by the real cop/doc... this is a newbie-game after all and if there were a actual cop/doc in the game an excited newbie might have very well counterclaimed right on the spot. So him going all "i am role x/y" and then after some hours of waiting and no counterclaims saying "lol, just kidding i trolled you all, i am a plain vt." looks very much like rolehunting and hoping someone actually bites and counterclaims. Also there is this quote by him going like "masons, i know who you are, you might as well come out and claim."... next occasion he is rolehunting. but when boxerfred has a theory about a cop having a redcheck and therefor trying to start a wagon, he instantly calls him out on in. So it's ok, when he does it... but only, when he does it. Other things I don't like about his spammy, mostly oneliner-filter: He trys to paint himself in a towny light with the most absurd reasons, like the votecount for example. He puts himself in the spot of a town hero by saying it was his vote and him persuading batsnacks to vote scott that finally swung the vote to lynch scott and not disformation, and when he is confronted with a reasonable arguement, that invalidates this arguement (my post that those votes may very well have been preplanned), his reaction is "lol you know, what mafia says in their qt? you are mafia!" You are not mafia for thinking about, what mafia would do in their qt, and what might be their plans... that's a natural thing for town to do - you try to figure them out and you are paranoid about everything that isn't actually confirmed. And this is one point where sl contradicts himself... see this quote: He refers to this post: Not only does he conveniantly forget, that he was throwing dirt at me for entering the thread at the same time as rels (a confirmed town, he also threw dirt at) and not sulfurus, he is also completely fine with speculating about mafia-qts, when it fits his agenda. Only, when it is not fitting for him, he devaluates it by saying the person speculating is mafia for knowing too much about the scum-qt. Also him disregarding the possibility of a serialkiller to devalue votes vs him again lacks critical thinking on his part and ignoring the possibility of a townaction, that negated one kp at night. the chance isn't the biggest, i will agree to that, but there is still a possibility, that something like this happened. So to sum it up: SLs behavior looks very anti-town to me + he has double standarts, when it comes to certain behaviours and lacks town-trades like a certain amount of paranoia and critical thinking. I am totally fine with lynching him today. ##vote sicklucker I even asked Bara why D3 he was voting Sul. He clearly stated, So he has his own thoughts, but wants to sheep Bats? This seems odd from someone so attached to their own thoughts before. It makes sense if Bara is GF though, he wants to keep people thinking he's town and supports Bats to support his checks. Now D4 again, we see Bara isn't targeting SL, why? He said D3 he still thinks he's scum. I'm wondering if this post had anything to do with it. Did he see SL town reading him and not want to piss him off? That's the only thing that makes sense to me. I find Bara pretty scummy here, his votes and cases especially. I also know I'm not the only one, plots RB'd Bara N2 because he saw similarities in Bara's play this game to a scum game of his. I don't like meta reads, but Bara has been a little too sensible when talking to people and interacting. Yet his cases tend to fall flat, like he's not putting in the same effort. So yea, Bara is a good lynch today. Here I make a fully isolated case on Bara. I even ASSUME that plots is Town RB in this case. In it I'm saying that a Bara lynch is a solid option for today. Clearly I haven't given up on my original case. But I DID LISTEN! I've agreed that it does make sense that Bara should be the first lynch, just in the off chance that plots is in fact a Town RB. My case on Bara stands even if you still think plots is the town RB. So this is not just the same tunnel I was on before. I really feel like these questions are very pertinent though, and I really want people to try and answer them. If you can answer these questions solidly to yourself then you clearly believe and have evidence that these actions make sense as Town RB. PLEASE SHARE THOSE THOUGHTS! On June 02 2015 02:45 Tictock wrote: So explain to me SL. How does tryhard Chart making Plots, think Rels is Scum? How does tryhard super tunneled (like so many of us) plots give such bad reasons for RBing Bara? How does ANYONE listen to you N3 and RB Bats? I'd really like to hear good answers to those questions, regardless of if you agree with me overall or not. Please at least consider my case here. It might sound like a crazy risky play by Scum, and it might seem hard to believe we'd see it in a newbie game. But it is possible! I've explained every angle of this case that i can think of. Please give me a fair read. Summary Post one last time. + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2015 01:15 Tictock wrote: I really don't know how I can prove to you guys that I'm not just tunneled here. I've thought this thing out, it makes sense. That's why I'm so focused on it. In case you need a reminder and don't want to do more filter diving, here is all my posts today related to my cases. I really was hoping to see people at least giving me arguments why I could be wrong. Instead I just see people being afraid to check if a blue claim was false, and not being able to check if a Greencheck was false. Again I'm not talking about flips here, I'm talking about inconsistencies in peoples play. Main Case (plots and Bara) + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2015 08:02 Tictock wrote: Ok guys, I know you thought Crazy Tunneltoc had finally given up and was sulking somewhere in defeat or something. But you can never vanquish the Tunneltoc! I'm back and ready to blow your minds. I have no way to prove this, so it's really just for my own amusement, but I prepared these posts with the intent on putting them up more or less after D4 starts. Some predictions: + Show Spoiler + -plots and Bara have been pointing fingers at me for having given up since my "plot" (get it) didn't work -prob some accusations that I'm not even a Mason and that Bre was solo -plots RB was on Bats or myself, really it could be anyone though. I'm pretty sure plots RBs the kill target here, but really all plots has to do here is say that the person he RB'd is scum when they say they weren't -Idea is to have the whole D4 revolve around this argument. Remember, it doesn't matter if plots gets lynched as long as it happens in such a way to secure towncred for Bara Obv scum killed Bats. If they killed anyone else it was to protect plots RB claim. Can't see them leaving bats though, I'm sure he was trying to check plots N3 and they can't have that. Honestly I can't imagine town staying fooled by this after I pointed everything out before EoD, but I'd rather not drag things out anymore. So here I am unveiling my case. This will be a multi-post case, so be warned. I may leave a summary post depending on how long this gets or how motivated I stay. Main Points -Plots is scum. This is a short version of my scumread on him, but I'll expand on it.+ Show Spoiler + He's been Tryharding this whole game but never brings anything of worth to the game. D1 it's all the graphics. D2 defending SL from Me and getting all buddy buddy. He also blows up over nothing (claims I misunderstood a post) attacking my reading ability & fabricating all sorts of ways I'm not reading him right. He does all that instead of restating his thoughts like I ask him to. D3 total tunnel on me, is 100% convinced he can make me look like shit kus he doesn't think I'm mason (for some reason he's really sure he picked up Mason on BF). When that doesn't work he falls back on Sul but keeps pushing me. -Plots fabricates a 2nd RB role. He uses my own mistake of bringing up setup speculation to his teams advantage. -Setup is really RB, Goon, GF vs Masons(2) & Cop. This is a balanced setup and perfectly normal in a newbie game. -This RB invention isn't a solid idea until D2, which is why plots claims it then to "soft claim" his role. -Bara has to be N2 RB so that they can push this idea, AND! it gives them both instant towncred enough to force town to mislynch D3. -Scum plan going forward is to have Plots keep sticking his neck out and causing as much confusion as possible. Plots is expendable as long as he creates a good smokescreen for Bara. While Bara is safe to hold back and blend. At this point Bara can just keep sheeping town like he did D3, his cred is that solid as long as there isn't anyone crazy enough to thing a blue claim could be false and push it... Filter Dive on Plots + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2015 08:03 Tictock wrote: You guys didn't like my suspicions of plots. I don't blame you, I know I've gone overboard in many ways this game. That tunnel on SL, the proposition of SK being a thing when I clearly didn't understand what the goals of the role was. Maybe I have been tunneled on plots, but you know the saying "Being paranoid does not mean your wrong" Let me walk you through plots play, as I see it. Indulge my thinking for just a little bit please, try it on for size. If you don't like it feel free to say so but it had better be more than just attacks on my character or ability. You have to target my reasoning here. Going mild on the quotes here, or at least I started out trying to go mild >.< Do your own Fing reading if you want to verify every little point I make. Also this got Big really fast. Spoilered to keep thread readable. + Show Spoiler + Plots if you recall, starts this game seeming to have forgotten he was playing. He then returns to the game so ready to go that he does some crazy spreadsheeting of everyone's posts. These look impressive, like they took a lot of time. In fact they took so much time plots is never able to do full reads on everyone. Finally D2 he finishes his analysis of D1 and posts all the results, along with helpful instructions on how to use the charts. That's a lot of work right? Like it really is impressive... but how likely is it to really give meaningful information? Plots used his analysis in detail in his reads D1, which only had the first 6? hours of the game involved (he posted these about MidDay btw). But look at his reads AFTER he finished his analysis, he posted them here just a little after he give us his finished charts. Huh, he sure doesn't use much of anything from the charts does he? Almost like he doesn't believe they are useful either. All that work, he doesn't even try to make a full set of reads on everybody from them? Plots then goes pretty carefree, like he's done his job. He has. Nobody, well almost nobody, would dare scum read someone with all that work under his belt. So he starts chatting with SL, being all jokey and chummy. A decent pocket attempt if i ever have seen one (I think it's actually my first ^.^), SL has been under constant pressure and def needs a friend at this point in the game. That is also likely why plots has been weakly townreading SL the whole game. This point always stood out to me as odd. Sl is a very hard player to read, especially early on. If plots is as tryhard noob as he looks from the charts, how is he SO sure SL is town? Here is where things start to get interesting. I blunder in, super scumming plots over this interaction with SL. Clearly my attention is focused on SL at this point, but the fact that I call out his pocket attempt is bad for plots. So he decides to try and undermine my townyness. Do note at this point plots had only posted 2 reads on me, one null and one as clear town. Plots starts to get super mad at my points against him. I first call him out for his read on Rels. Remember that? The first thing plots did D2 was give a full paragraph scum read on the guy who just flipped green. His reasoning, well I was working on this, might as well finish it and post it, shows people I'm trying. Why would town post a read like this after a flip? It adds nothing to be discussed, it wastes space, it gives slim towncred, and it's downright weird. Now I definitely read all plots posts here a few times already. While there are a few places where plots is right and I did misread his posts. + Show Spoiler + Honest question, who finds plots posts easy to read? Other stuff is going on in his filter right now as well. He gives a read on SL and 27nb. The reas on SL is not bad actually, plots gives lots of reasoning and takes into consideration other opinions, odd though that he now thinks SL is shifty when plots has been claiming he's pretty town up till now. His read ends with a bunch of questions, which plots later claims were trying to get people to think SL might be a role. His read on 27nb is total crap on the other hand. It is just sheeping everyone else's opinion. Yet plots is willing to vote 27nb, and then later swap to BM for no reason other than BM voting 27nb. Still, after the initial case I post, I do start to make efforts to talk to plots. I ask him to give details to backup his claims/defense, admit I might have been jumping the gun, and even admit that maybe I am just misunderstanding him. In this last point I especially admit, I mean it's really easy to have a misunderstanding. So there was a break in our exchanges and that let him get out those reads. Late in the day, I post about more things I don't like about plots. Again plots gets super defensive, this time really attacking my ability to read. The post that really stood out to me in this exchange was this one. That post is a bunch of garbled nonsense. The point of it is to suggest several different ways that I MUST have been misreading plots and is largely putting words into my mouth. Why does plots go through all this effort? Why not just tell me what he really meant not what I'm misreading from his post. I think hes trying to slander me, make me appear to be as unreliable as he can. This covers up to N2 and is less than Half! plots filter. N2 starts somewhere just after pg 4 in plots filter. Plots now decides to put out his RB claim, well he claims that HE was RB's N1. This is later said to be a "soft claim" for his RB role. In fact right after plots says he got RB'd he start talking about it like it HAD to have come from town. At first this looks strange, though it does fit with him later claiming RB. After this though, plots really starts to focus on me. He blows up once again about our misunderstanding (I did push him in not the most diplomatic way) but even though I'm CLEARLY asking him to clear things up, he posts this which is largely just what he already posted. Page 5 of plots filter starts with him responding to me answering his questions to me. He basically just calls me dumb and says I have no way to know that SL isn't a role. I had reached this conclusion on my own, however Bre helped me solidify it. Feel free to ask me why I thought this later, this post is big enough. Shortly after that Plots starts his spam posting for the day. Some of the tunnel on me starts, but breaks off to throw out some stuff about roles and keeps doing this Nolynch crap for literally no reason. The whole way Plots claims his role is a little weird. He doesn't come out with it, he slowly teases it, as though he's giving town some great secret. He also uses this to try and be "secretive" about his motives for RBing who he did. He does eventually offer this, On May 28 2015 21:36 plotspot wrote: I RBed Rels, but she died that night. Remember that I scumread her. I even said I would have shot her if I was vig. So I claimed that I was RBed by a roleblocker N2 to tell town that we have a RB, but there wasn't any discussion worthwhile about it, you also didn't see me press the issue there. What an odd choice to RB N1. Sure, ok Plots did scumread Rels and mentioned the Vig thing here, On May 25 2015 07:10 plotspot wrote: How do you know Rels wasn't Vig shot? I was about to make a case on scumreading him hard for the following points I prepared: Rels: referring too much to others opinion, reading thread very carefully, the way RELS sets up lynch is also very comfortable (like lynch inactives), giving orders to others, thanks my post but posts no further thoughts, in comparison to Disinformation who displays overall anxiety in his reads and thoughts, Rels looks like he can handle any sudden change, there is nothing clouding his mind, others apparently have to do more than Rels, you bet if I was Vig I would have shot her. Another odd post. First how in the hell does Plots think a Vig shot Rels, because plots would if he were vig? He is also so sure Rels is scum here, but are his reasons good? And... wait this is right at start of D2, before plots has even finished his charts... but I see no evidence of him using his charts in this read once again... Would a Town RB, who spends all D1 making charts on activity, use this reasoning to block Rels? Well THIS plots doesnt, rather than use the tool he's spent so much time making he throws out these NAI points about Rels to scum her and say she was a good target here. Still not convinced plots RB claim doesn't hold up? What about his N2 target, Barakos? Well as Dis points out in this post On May 28 2015 22:58 disformation wrote: That is basically the only mention of barakos in your filter... Why the fuck would you roleblock a null/town read over a scum read? Plots has only been town or nullreading Bara all game. I think plots reasons for his RB's is very much a good thing to be looking at. I spent a fair portion of D3 asking plots why Bara was his 2nd RB. He only ever mentions his RB on bara in these 2 posts one is his super weak answer to my question. On May 28 2015 21:58 plotspot wrote: Of course I RBed Rels and Barakos. Barakos non-chalantly mentions he has been RBed? Lol if he was mafia I believe he should hang out in the thread a bit instead of expressing it like this. On May 28 2015 22:48 plotspot wrote: I couldn't read him that well. While I said he was town earlier, I had my doubts internally and not published. I wonder why batsnacks thought the same? (he technically mentions the Bara RB in other posts as well, but they are just like that first quote. "Bara's RB claim proves I'm RB guys!" Now plots does post this On May 29 2015 00:38 plotspot wrote: Also it's impossible for a mafia to think of such a ploy. He would risk his fucking life making up being RB, when he didn't even know there was one. Guess what would happen to mafia if he makes up such a ploy, saying he was RB N1? I would crush him. It's too dangerous, no mafia will ever do that. I on the other hand could because only I knew I targeted Rels and "luckily" she died for that ploy to work. Imagine if I was to RB someone and he survives that Night. It would make this ploy impossible, it would have led to a fucking mess which mafia will have ultimately used to force me out. Which is true, and a valid point. Why would scum invent such a play? What does it benefit them? I will attempt to explain the scum logic here in another post, for now this is actually a good point. This does bring me to the one point that would destroy my theory. If there is a 3rd person who gets RB's then I'm absolutely wrong here. Starting here plots starts to push numbers to explain why votes should go certain ways. He also starts to bring back the possibility of me and Sul being the scum team. He is also continuing to post setup speculations, keeping them broad and only suggests more "oddball" setups. Towards EoD plots does more numbers to push votes on Sul, these make no sense though and are really just put out to keep town unsure of what is the best play. There is more in the filter, but it is more recent and this has ballooned to be an epic wall of text. Hopefully I've made my points clear. Detailed look at how this Play makes sense from scum + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2015 08:03 Tictock wrote: Whew, still with me? At this point I want to point out that a NORMAL newbie setup is most likely, regardless of anything that has been said this game it is very unlikely that a bizarre setup would be used in a newbie game. At the time of me writing this Bre is the only confirmed Blue role, Bats will probably have been killed and confirmed Cop so D4 is going to be all about plots vs me. Mason vs Town RB, which role makes more sense? I propose that our game is setup like so: RB, Goon, and GF vs Masons & Cop Plots claim for RB is fake, and I poked holes in his claim in my last post. Ok now lets talk about how what I'm suggesting makes sense from a scum perspective as this may not look like a good play at first. - The Scum play D3 - Imagine you are scum. You lost your RB Day 1 thanks to a somewhat lucky train by town. Since then town has been sidetracked by suspecting inactive people, or focused on SL. D2 went ok since Town is still largely off your trail, but there is one guy who is bringing suspicion to one of your team. You know you need 3 more mislynches to secure a victory. It seems like it's the right time for a bold play. There has been some setup speculation in thread, since this game uses a semi-open setup scum!You knows just a little more than town, you know your own setup. What if there was a way to confuse town further about setup stuff, WHILE still getting info about the roles that are out there? Thus the fake RB role is born. This fake role serves to confuse town, forces other blues to claim (the info to town becomes too important now), AND manages to give towncred to the scum team since they can hide behind these claims. "But Tunneltoc? Doesn't this play fall apart the next night?" I know your asking that now, but hear me out. With this play Scum is almost guaranteed one of their mislynches (I did my best to stop it, but town wanted to believe all the blue claims too much), and gives them a solid shot at winning the game. D4 will start off with nobody claiming they got RB'd N3. What would you do as scum in this position? I know what i would do, pick a target D4 and say, "hey I roleblocked you!" when they deny it you go "ok well then your scum! clearly you want to confuse town and make them not believe my role!" Will plots do this to me? It seems like he HAS to. Plots and Bara as a team could not kill me N3 as it would give too much credence to my theories, besides that Bats could potentially check plots N3 so he needs to die. This is risky. It means that plots is very likely to get lynched at some point. But as Scum, do you care? Isn't it worth plots sticking his head out like that if it means 1 surefire mislynch and a potential 2nd one the next day if you can throw enough shit on a player to get them scummed? At the very least plots would go out in a fury of confusion and misinformation, all while Bara can freely gauge town safe behind a greencheck (I haven't pointed this out yet, Bara didn't claim he was RB'd until well after Bats said he had been greenchecked) and bus plots when needed. In other words the whole play is to spread misinformation for as long as possible while distracting Town from Bara so he can potentially ride out the game while town keeps lynching inactives. Last thought here, So then given all this, why would plots suggest Bara as GF? The whole play is built around the idea of protecting Bara. This might actually be the only flaw I see in my thinking. It could just be a slip, but it does seem like something plots would be very careful about in this position. Still he was responding to my pressure to explain why he would RB Bara N2. It is possible he let slip a bit of his own thinking when trying to deflect my pressure and questions. When plots mentions Bara as GF it's used to counter my thinking at the time, that plots was mafia RB. It's a hole, but it's not much compared to how well my theory holds up everywhere else. Vote analysis and 1st look at Bara + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2015 08:03 Tictock wrote: Last post in this series. This one addresses Plots and Bara's votes all 3 days and I do a little filter diving on Bara. Bara's filter is much shorter than plots so you should read it yourself, I'm just going to point out a few things I noticed in it. D1 Votes: Both Plots and Bara avoid voting with the majority. They keep their votes on Dis. Bara opens the game with his vote on Dis and lets it ride all day. His reasons are easy to find, it's like the first thing in his filter, they are all based off Bat's Iching. Bara never mentions scott, but he does suggest multiple times that he dislikes lynching inactives as it feels "coinflippy" Plots doesn't do much D1, but he does give reads on Dis (his vote) and scott. Nothing too convincing from these guys as to why they voted Dis over scott. D2 Votes: Reminder that we Lynched VT Bill Murray D2, votes prob mean less than D1 Bara does repeat that he dislikes voting inactives again, also similar to D1 he places his vote on SL and lets it ride all day. Plots gives us a read on 27nb here, but it's pretty useless and is all sheep just disguised as his own read. He then swaps his vote to BM Again clearly sheeping. D3 Votes: Bara, literally just sheeps Bats. No more mention of inactives being coinflippy, no real thought. Posts some numbers at one point to try and show there is much better chance to hit Mafia by voting 27nb or Sul over plots. Plots does some nonsense voting No Lynch at first, but later joins the vote on Sul. Unlike Bara he does show his reasoning, it's pathetic Barakos & Plotspot: Scum Team? Clearly these 2 have some pretty poor reasoning in all of their votes. I found it particularly interesting how Bara drops his own thoughts on SL and just sheeps Bats. When I ask him near EoD why he still thinks SL and Dis could be scum he give me this So I ask, well what do you find scummy about those 2? Why are they cleared by role stuff, they were never checked? By the way, this post from Bara is what got me onto the idea that he was teamed with plots Notice how he gives literally no chance for plots to be scum, but some fraction chance of everyone else? Did anyone notice that D3 there were only 2 players to claim I was defending Sul? Bara thinks so in that last post, and plots did here Was my post on Sul here, really that much of a defense? Wasn't I really just asking for good reasons behind our lynch target, and saying I don't see those reasons in Sul? Plots and Bara were the only 2 people EoD3 to heavily post numbers to support voting Sul or bunnies. This point might be weaker, but did anyone notice how the 2 of them were lurking a lot around EoD? When I start posting my theories about them, they BOTH suddenly appeared in thread giving me shit for it. It seemed clear to me that they were reacting in panic since I had suddenly broken their ploy. Could just be coincidence, but these 2 were fairly active EoD, much morose than any other EoD. Actually filter Diving on Bara wasn't as revealing as I would have thought. I pulled up a few points that I already linked and quoted above. Bara makes a fair bit of towny posts throughout the days, his D1 vote and reasoning were crap but besides that his filter looks ok. As we got into EoD D3 and I throw out the notion that plots and Bara are the the scum team, Bara's posts start to look worse. It really wasn't until the post I quoted above that I started to suspect Bara. This is why I'm still pushing plots as my vote, and why I did so D3 as well. Plots is more clearly scum than Bara. However if plots does flip Goon like I think he will then Bara becomes confirmed GF. Plots flips anything else, and my case on Bara is broken. 2nd look at Bara, this time assuming Plots is Town RB (untunneled) + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2015 20:04 Tictock wrote: Actually 27nb asks a fair question. Why am I switching my vote to Bara? Well, you guys were probably right. I may have been focusing plots too hard. So I will make this case under the assumption that plots is Town RB. Greenchecked, but is he GF? So rather than tunnel him, I decided to follow his thinking. N2 plots blocked Bara becuase he thought he saw scum tendencies in his play. Having reviewed some things, I agree. I think plots backed off too early, Bara claiming the RB could easily be a ploy to keep people from guessing he is GF. Remember how he said it? Like an hour after Day phase had started. Remember the Day started with Bats claiming cop and stating his checks. Whats to stop GF!Bara from seeing his PM and seeing he got greenchecked as well? This gives him the perfect opportunity to fool not just one, but 2 blue roles, just by stating that he got RB'd. I know that in it self isn't enough to prove much, but it IS possible. Votes Remember Bara's votes D1 and D2? He voted Dis and then SL and gave pretty decent cases on them. Dis + Show Spoiler + On May 22 2015 16:49 Barakos wrote: Morning everyone! I'm here now and almost done to catching up. First thoughts: I like breschke pushing/tunneling sl, to prevent him from being lazy. Makes breschke look town in my eyes. What I didn't like was disformations filter. All he has done so far is posting fluff and agreeing to people but not contributing in any form, except a very weak and non-commiting push on bm for lurking. And then there are these 2 posts: In the bolded parts, he explains what good townplay should look like, and what he would like to have done. And that is all he does... he explains and doesn't follow up with anything, that would be good townplay... he just shows, that he knows, what town should do but does actually nothing. But since he shows, that he knows, what good townplay looks like, he is still "looking good" and tries to give the impression, that he is town but just hasn't had the opportunity to really do stuff. So for now my vote is on him. ##vote disformation SL + Show Spoiler + On May 26 2015 19:39 Barakos wrote: soo... reread the thread... one thing i found kinda funny: I make a post about the votes not meaning much, because it may very well have been planned to vote for unmotivated scum-scott and a few hours after disformation (my stongest scum-read at that moment) makes a huge post saying he analyzed the votes and stuff... it is almost as if you try to antagonize me, disfo.. Anyways... I doubt scum-disfo would do this, since i was the only one pushing him really hard and scum would at this point try to not draw more of my attention by actively trying to argue with me... so for now, disfo moves down from the top spot of my lynch-list. 27nb: looks not so good. was never under my suspicion, because I felt the exchange we had about sulfurus and her reaction to the case disformation made against her. Starts to look worse now. I like tictocks point, about her trying to draw attention to the people voting scott by asking, if there was mafia between them and her promising a big reads-post and not delivering also looks bad. sl: oh god, what a mess... it is almost as if he tries to confuse everybody... "i may or may not have a green check on barakos" "i may be cop or doctor" "i am vanilla town" Like wtf this play looks bad on so many levels. If you are vanilla town it is like the worst possible play to claim you have a green check on someone whose filter you haven't even read and you actually say, you can't read him properly... ok... he retracted in the end... i get that. Next thing, why this play was bad as it can be: He might very well have provoked a counter-claim by the real cop/doc... this is a newbie-game after all and if there were a actual cop/doc in the game an excited newbie might have very well counterclaimed right on the spot. So him going all "i am role x/y" and then after some hours of waiting and no counterclaims saying "lol, just kidding i trolled you all, i am a plain vt." looks very much like rolehunting and hoping someone actually bites and counterclaims. Also there is this quote by him going like "masons, i know who you are, you might as well come out and claim."... next occasion he is rolehunting. but when boxerfred has a theory about a cop having a redcheck and therefor trying to start a wagon, he instantly calls him out on in. So it's ok, when he does it... but only, when he does it. Other things I don't like about his spammy, mostly oneliner-filter: He trys to paint himself in a towny light with the most absurd reasons, like the votecount for example. He puts himself in the spot of a town hero by saying it was his vote and him persuading batsnacks to vote scott that finally swung the vote to lynch scott and not disformation, and when he is confronted with a reasonable arguement, that invalidates this arguement (my post that those votes may very well have been preplanned), his reaction is "lol you know, what mafia says in their qt? you are mafia!" You are not mafia for thinking about, what mafia would do in their qt, and what might be their plans... that's a natural thing for town to do - you try to figure them out and you are paranoid about everything that isn't actually confirmed. And this is one point where sl contradicts himself... see this quote: He refers to this post: Not only does he conveniantly forget, that he was throwing dirt at me for entering the thread at the same time as rels (a confirmed town, he also threw dirt at) and not sulfurus, he is also completely fine with speculating about mafia-qts, when it fits his agenda. Only, when it is not fitting for him, he devaluates it by saying the person speculating is mafia for knowing too much about the scum-qt. Also him disregarding the possibility of a serialkiller to devalue votes vs him again lacks critical thinking on his part and ignoring the possibility of a townaction, that negated one kp at night. the chance isn't the biggest, i will agree to that, but there is still a possibility, that something like this happened. So to sum it up: SLs behavior looks very anti-town to me + he has double standarts, when it comes to certain behaviours and lacks town-trades like a certain amount of paranoia and critical thinking. I am totally fine with lynching him today. ##vote sicklucker I even asked Bara why D3 he was voting Sul. He clearly stated, So he has his own thoughts, but wants to sheep Bats? This seems odd from someone so attached to their own thoughts before. It makes sense if Bara is GF though, he wants to keep people thinking he's town and supports Bats to support his checks. Now D4 again, we see Bara isn't targeting SL, why? He said D3 he still thinks he's scum. I'm wondering if this post had anything to do with it. Did he see SL town reading him and not want to piss him off? That's the only thing that makes sense to me. I find Bara pretty scummy here, his votes and cases especially. I also know I'm not the only one, plots RB'd Bara N2 because he saw similarities in Bara's play this game to a scum game of his. I don't like meta reads, but Bara has been a little too sensible when talking to people and interacting. Yet his cases tend to fall flat, like he's not putting in the same effort. So yea, Bara is a good lynch today. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Inquisitive but unsure natures, implies a newbie. Someone who isn't sure of their own opinions, but is trying to figure things out. Inactivity is more than likely a sign of town, or being busy. Than a clear scum tell. Uselessness. Is a mixed bag. Obviusly I'm talking about SL now. I did give you a chance SL. This defines SL. He just doesn't seem to really care about these games. How can he? His brain is probably so rattled with the 100's of games he's played or is playing that one lose is a write off. When he wins it's great, but ONE lose in 100 isn't too bad eh? Take for evidence his play last newbie game where he was town, day two. Link, for reference. Here SL goes on to suggest an "auto-play" that he thinks gives town a 75% chance of getting scum. Had town listened we would have lynched our Vig, who went on that night to shoot our 2nd scum. SL makes questionable plays and shows no thinking as either alignment. I think his arguments, are throw away. Unless you think Mafia would in fact be so awed by the Hammer of SL on scott that they felt forced to show themselves and sheep him... | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
it's really stupid at this point you guys manage to so screw it up | ||
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Barakos
Germany358 Posts
I am also completely frustrated with this game, since I don't see town winning with tictock tunneling and the only way to stop this tunnel is me dieing. (Or plots, but we can't have plots die, so rather me.) | ||
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
On June 02 2015 04:51 Barakos wrote: I'm semi-around, will look into the thread from time to time... Don't expect me to react on the case on me, I said, I wouldn't fight getting lynched, since I almost got the feeling, town can't be saved unless tictock is brought off of his stupid case, so getting lynched is kinda my wincondition here... sad but true. I am also completely frustrated with this game, since I don't see town winning with tictock tunneling and the only way to stop this tunnel is me dieing. (Or plots, but we can't have plots die, so rather me.) This makes me want to vote you. Like, you aren't even trying to find mafia. Why? | ||
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