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Yea, -c- I realize Super isn't actually confirmed yet. My point was more so that this post implies TMI to me.
On May 08 2015 15:44 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2015 13:55 Tictock wrote:SL said himself On May 07 2015 01:01 sicklucker wrote:
oh ok thank I will be voting super now and never changing. This means to mean mafia will fake rb here 50-75% of the time. Probably on the higher side because super has done this very play before in his last newbie game as mafia.
50% chance to flip scum is very good odds. 75% is amazing I have no reason to ever change this His math is that good guys, he doesn't need to read the thread or talk to people. Maths will save town! just because he was the 25% does not mean my estimate was wrong in the slightest.
SL goes from being certain that voting Super is the best lynch + Show Spoiler +On May 07 2015 01:01 sicklucker wrote:
oh ok thank I will be voting super now and never changing. This means to mean mafia will fake rb here 50-75% of the time. Probably on the higher side because super has done this very play before in his last newbie game as mafia.
50% chance to flip scum is very good odds. 75% is amazing I have no reason to ever change this
I'm surprised there hasn't been more activity since I went to bed, but dissapointed.
Humm, Stutters kinda dissapear, disappointing given he was giving us promises.
On May 07 2015 08:35 Stutters695 wrote:
Depending on Rit's answers him. I have tomorrow during the day off so I'll get a full set of reads off then.
He updated with an excuse,
On May 07 2015 23:40 Stutters695 wrote:
And called into work early, I fucking hate my job. 2-9 switched for 11-8 is a totally fair trade right?
I'll be here to get stuff out when I can.
but that was quite awhile ago now. He doesn't look great already and this inactivity isn't helping, I'm starting to agree he could be scum here.
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Oh Stutters is around!
So Stutters, if you were Vig. Who would you shoot tonight?
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Given the amount of CC's going on, I was kind of expecting someone to CC Super's Vig claim.
Anyways I'm around the next ~2 hours.
I'll get a post up regarding EoD and the claims before I take off for work, though I'm half tempted to just see how EoN goes.
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Eh I forgot EoN is in like ~5 hours. I'll get into details after we see what happens.
Super as Vig adds up, makes sense with my current read. Stutters wouldn't be my first pick as a shoot, but it's not a bad option either.
Doc Vig setup makes sense with Supers RB claim D2. Mafia would not stack RB and Kill targets in this setup. I guess we'll get confirmation on this given the night flips, hopefully.
Not even sure what to do with Dis and ritoky both claiming Doc. I agree with TS there's tons that I feel I want to say, but that's a discussion for D3.
Also fair warning: I have a friends Birthday as well as Mothers day stuff to attend to this weekend. I will do my best, but it's going to be a busy weekend.
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My mobile borowser keeps crashing when I try to quote, ugh.
HtS I'm confused why you are saying I'm parroting.
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Firstly reactions to EoN. Nice kill Super! Clearly my read on Stutters was a bit off, suppose I've been tunneling SL pretty hard D2. Setting up town 7 to 1 for D3 onwards seems like pretty much sure town win, 3 days to sort out the last scum? (2 days of bad lynches puts us 3v1 Mylo) I like them odds.
So, we have Superbia, -Celestial- and Half the Sky all pretty much confirmed town. I might give -c- and HtS one more filter dive later on today as a formality, but I don't expect to change those reads the rest of the game.
I'd like to put myself in that group but given my D1 vote and that I was pushing for Vig shot on SL other than Stutters I get the suspicion. Still would like to know why HtS says I'm parroting here, besides her I've seen TS and ritoky voice concerns about me but haven't seen anything solid for me to respond to. If you guys are still scum reading me, care to share why?
I've been a little back and forth on The Shining, but re-reading his D2 has him solid town for me. I was also in the same mindset as him last night phase not wanting to dive too deep into ritoky's CC (CCC?) for doc given that discussion only had benefits for Mafia until Day phase. + Show Spoiler +-c- makes a good point, that mafia is unlikely to shoot anyone but Dis there. Still no reason to point it out for them.
That leaves 3 people who I've been scumming for the past day or so, y0su, ritoky and, SL.
Shoot, was going to get into better reads on them but I need to take off for a little bit. I wont be gone long, soon as I get back will be filter diving these 3 and giving you guys my reads.
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And back. Now to find the scum.
ritoky
Ok so ritoky is my weakest scum read between the 3 so I will start with him. His day 1 is pretty solid, but there is some pretty interesting stuff there. He points this out + Show Spoiler +On May 05 2015 01:30 ritoky wrote:
y'know i gave prp a early town read cuz he made a quality observation, then i layed off him cuz he did a "fuck you" post, which always gives me the hots. but this kinda disengaged is kinda meh. you're falling on my list big boy.
stutters is also declining rapidly at this point.
place them both on the lynchable list.
I noticed this a little after EoD D1. It's been hanging in the back of my head as odd, especially given that prp was the first to vote in thread. On further inspection, though, the timing shows that ritoky votes well after prp made that post. To me that looks like prp decides to push a 2nd wagon to earn some easy "not jumping on that ML" cred and wait to make sure someone else is willing to vote with him before voting himself. It makes more sense for prp to play a town ritoky this way, rather than ritoky and prp as scum starting their own wagon so late. Even besides this bit of logic, ritoky had clearly been scum reading HtS for several reasons D1 and he has been pushing for a second wagon, thus his vote here was completly town based.
ritoky's D2 stuff actually looks pretty good as I look at it today. I was focusing in a lot on his usage of "confirmed town" yesturday, but now that it's out of my system and I'm reading around it I see a lot of good town play. He weakly defends me in a push, even though he has clearly said since he still reads some scum on me. He actually pushes Stutters a lot for not being more forceful on prp.
His EoD2 and N2 stuff looks a little odd, trying to call out what prp is going to do with claiming then going for that double counter claim on doc. Both actions look strange and feel wierd, but boil down to NAI when you look at it. Prp had literally no chance UNLESS he claimed a blue role, a VT claim would never stop that train given his inactivity. So ritoky pushing him to do that or be mafia is legit pressure. The doc thing... super weak town play or ballsy mafia. In fact given HOW weak of a town play it is (I agree with -c-, no way does Mafia believe a claim like this from ritoky) and the fact that ritoky is telling us he's probably going to be MIA the rest of D3, I can completely agree with him being a viable lynch target.
Besides that last point though, ritoky does look fairly town. I wont vote for him today.
Sicklucker
I've given my reasoning on SL before and as others have said it's almost a policy lynch at this point given the general lack of reading. SL is also pushing pretty hard on ritoky right now after he posted his newest "sure win" idea.
On May 09 2015 09:57 sicklucker wrote:
Actually I already have auto. kill yosu ritoky tictoc win the game. So ya im not gonna try im an easy townread if you wanna throw the game go for it
Notice how he's pushing y0su first here? Then he jumps to ritoky super hard. I was interested why he put y0su first and dug up some interesting quotes. Working (newest post to oldest) I find these posts which mention y0su.
On May 09 2015 07:06 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2015 22:50 Half the Sky wrote:On May 08 2015 11:09 The Shining wrote:
Yeah I was excusing the vote, not scumming him for it, and he comes back and tells me it's not alignment indicative. Felt like a defensive post, and unnecessary.
And I'd lynch him solely off of doing that more than once, while trying to direct blues without reading. I can't even begin to fathom where that town motivation would come from. Shining he has done this as both alignments. If sicklucker is scum, it's not for this. What I'm more interested in, is how he knew he wanted to lynch Stutters and y0su earlier. I asked him earlier who other than Superbia he wanted to lynch - he replied Stutters and y0su without any reasoning. SL, what do you think on y0su now? I have had answered this like several times?
On May 08 2015 04:38 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2015 00:03 Half the Sky wrote:
More to sicklucker - if sicklucker can elaborate on his scumreads on superbia and y0su, it will go a long way for me. my yosu read was weak off one shitty post. My super read has been covered
... and that's it... I even used ctrl-f to make sure I wasn't missing anything. SOMEONE please verify this for me.
Honestly, unless someone can find a post I'm missing somehow I think we've got our last scum here guys.
##Vote: sicklucker
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HtS, what is making you lean more town on SL?
After reading my last post, do you still feel that way?
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On May 10 2015 03:39 ritoky wrote:
Read some of hts whining about my alignment. I am pretty much confirmed town. She was whining about my read on her but neglected the post where I said I intentionally blew the read out of proportion to create an alternative wagon. She also neglects the part where I was one of the only people pushing on stutters all game and where I bullied pro into a claim. He'll even the play I made during the night phase was 100% but indicative. Not to even bring up how i am a mason with the vig.
I hate you for the bolded statements. Not sure what you mean with the italics, and agree with the rest.
That is all.
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You are NOT confirmed town. I think your probably town but every time you state "I'm confirmed town" I cringe.
You did not pressure prp into claiming. He litteraly had no other moves, in fact had he done anything OTHER than claim it would have been a terrible night for Mafia. Prp claiming when he is for sure getting lynched like that gives mafia a blue target to go after.
Look at all the arguments people have made as to why your CC for doc looks bad. Try again, also this makes you look bad for not reading.
Ok, you can be masons with Super, I still don't like it... maybe I'm jealous ^.^
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On May 10 2015 04:00 ritoky wrote:
Hi?
See guys I pressured him into posting.
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Lol, sorry you had to wash your own logic off your face there.
Care to give an actual response to the arguments here? Or do you prefer to continue spitting?
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I have to head out, probably for the rest of today. I'll check in as I can but wont be able to post much till near EoD.
ritoky spitting away all the town cred I patiently read into him... such a shame.
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"Bullied prp into claim" reads alot differnt than saying " I read him as role or scum D1, and put the pressure on him D2"
However, claiming this read after the fact proves little as you never stated those reads untill late D2.
Tone and phrasing make a world of differnce. I also like the VT throwaway notion, I'm not sold that it is a solid plan given that VT is still needed to win, but maybe in that situation it has some merit.
Anyways, i still see you as town or at least my most towny scum, i just hate that you throw this " too towny to prove town" attitude at us.
What do you think about my read on SL?
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I admit I need to look at y0su again, I'm giving him some credit as a fellow newbie. He did give a read on stutters in his last big read post, but it was pretty shallow and amounted to "i dont know what to make of him". Not too dissimilar to my own read before Stutters flipped. I'll re-read him and rethink my position there when I get home.
Until someone pokes holes in my read on SL or gives pretty solid case on y0su, my vote is staying where it is.
Pondering what the last mafia would be thinking at this point. Hiding with the flow of opinion, and pushing on newbies seems like the most likely option for mafia atm.
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Sorry TS i missed that post due to making my own at the same time. I initially really like it, it sounds solid. will need to re-read your case in detail when I'm home.
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Looking back over y0su's filter.
He spends a decent bit of D1 questioning and going after -c- for his case against scott. Given how much support -c- has as town even that early in the game it seems like an odd move for scum to push on him, especially a newbie y0su scum.
Not much from him until he posts his list of reads TS quoted earlier. I don't think we should read too much from the order that he posted his reads in, if you look at the order he is clearly going down the list of player in the 2nd post of this thread. A lot of his reads are fairly short and don't have much backing them up, but they are pretty consistent with newbie reads.
y0su spends D2 doing some questioning and putting on a little pressure. Most of it is directed towards SL, who y0su has as more likely scum than stutters.
Spends a fair bit of time in WIFOM territory (in my opinion) trying to find logic behind why Super would have been roleblocked N1.
Rest of his filter is regarding ritoky's CC doc play.
So to follow up on TS's case here, I'm not that sold anymore. Your first point is larely about the order of his reads, unfortunately that is circumstantial, especially given he listed ppl in order of the list in the OP. The most solid link I found in your case about Stutters and y0su being a mafia team is the way that y0su drops his line of questioning. However he does this in other cases too, which doesn't help his case as town but it doesn't help solidify this association between the y0su and Stutters either.
His inactivity thus far today doesn't look great, but I'm not convinced he's the top target for today either.
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ritoky sure isn't doing himself any favors today with the tone he keeps putting out there. I looked through today wondering if he's done much else other than call himself town, and yes he has.
On May 10 2015 10:32 ritoky wrote:I don't really see the big deal in it? Your point is that he is disengaged, has weak reads, not reading the thread, and lackluster? Meh. More interested in the fact that your read on me was so much longer, clear, and developed yet SL is the one who gets scummed...feel like the time devotion should have been the other way around? Let me go try shining's read on for size maybe his is better.
(It's hard to build up a lot over someone posted so little)
On May 10 2015 10:56 ritoky wrote:
just read shining's case on y0su, it is slightly better than TT's on SL. i especially like the part about the prompting stutters for his next target after prp into no follow-up on the matter.
where i run amuck with it is the part where y0su gives his reads. i get the whole part where he separates them in two and how he holds the 2 scum until his second post. there may be something to that, but then i look at the reads. as a new player he gives a full scum read and basically a null read to his 2 teammates? mind you prp probably encouraged bussing on himself in the QT at some point, but that....idk i feel like a newer player would be more apt to TR his other partner than null read them, especially since y0su doesn't seem like he has the capabilities to solo a game going forward. y0su's reads just leave me thinking those aren't his partners....
He is bothering to read what people are putting out there, and responds with fair reasoning. I want to throw scum on him for some of the way's he's acting but I keep looking at him and seeing towny stuff.
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SL what was your thinking behind this lynch order?
Actually I already have auto. kill yosu ritoky tictoc win the game. So ya im not gonna try im an easy townread if you wanna throw the game go for it
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EPT
