Mafia Mini Mafia2: another miniature game of mafia - Page 10

On April 13 2015 15:39 Palmar wrote:
Yeah I shot Eden

On April 13 2015 11:57 Damdred wrote:
Hi everyone I just got home from my shift of doom and I wanted to put some thoughts into the thread in case I die by some wifom kill tonight. As such here we go. Day one we had this vote as our final vote, will put hard confirmed by flips.lynches into this first one.

Vivax (1) - DreadReturn
GlowingBear (2) - Damdred, Palmar,
Eden1892 (2) - Yamato77, Ritoky,
Damdred (1) - GlowingBear,
DreadReturn (7) - Vivax, Koshi, HolyFlare, Onegu, ObiWanShinobi, Eden1892, Rsoultin,

Next blue claims and i'm coloring myself green because confirmed to myself and I think my GB push and lynching mafia is pretty good ^_-. Just a couple of thoughts before I go to the day 2 vote count to see some things.

I don't believe that the DR wagon can be entirely town based, I think at least one mafia was on that way. Like really sure that mafia was either in a position to afk or jumped off at some point after the wagon gained enough votes for them to shenanigans onto someone else without much consequence I'll come back to that thought and go into a bit more detail near the end.

Koshi (1) - Koshi
Vivax (1) - Yamato77
GlowingBear (3) - Palmar, Damdred, ObiWanShinobi, Sicklurker
Yamato77 (2) - Vivax, ritoky
ObiWanShinobi (2) - Eden, GlowingBear

Once again confirmed people colored in and I colored myself green.

To start off my thoughts. Its interesting to me that Ritoky voted on Yamato like he did. The choices were (obi and myself were on Yamato at the time) help Palmar push GB when he wasn't in the thread, vote Vivax with Yamato (who ritoky was previously town reading) or vote Yamato with Vivax, Obi and Damdred.

He says he really likes Palmars case the best out of all of this but decides to push Yamato ahead, as I mentioned before Ritoky had a hard hard town read on Yamato previously in D1 but decides to vote him d2 even though he has little to no interaction with him and even though he loves the GB case presented by Palmar and knows his town read Damdred would jump on a GB lynch he doesn't go that way onto confirmed mafia and instead he jumps onto Yamato pushing him ahead of Vivax 4-3 or 4-3-1 ahead of Vivax and GB at this point. He then goes back to afk land.

I think this heavily implies that Ritoky who would normally go against the grain in this situation and vote his favorite case instead of one that he thinks just isn't bad is scum in this scenario. I don't see any other way after re-reading how the voting went down.

I know its been pointed out before but the way Ritoky went about the vote D1 is strange as well, (and feeds into my above point) he was so strongly town reading yamato at that point he was following him wherever he went even if it meant not jumping onto GB who he admittedly wanted to at that point in time. Has to be Ritoky here I think based on association and his weird progression on voting Yamato.

I also think if Ritoky is mafia it clears Yamato a bit since Ritoky hammered him basically and there was little to no push to move the vote off Yamato. This is a bit weaker at this point especially since he keeps fading in and out of afk land but I think it makes me not want to lynch him if Ritoky flips scum.

Koshi (1) - Koshi
Vivax (1) - Yamato77
GlowingBear (3) - Palmar, Damdred, ObiWanShinobi, Sicklurker
Yamato77 (2) - Vivax, ritoky
ObiWanShinobi (2) - Eden, GlowingBear

Now we get to the bit of a logical leap about what happened with the votes.

There are only three partners that I think Ritoky/GB can potentially have with how the vote went down.

The most likely due to how the votes spontaneously moved about would be Vivax. When myself and Obi moved from Yamato to GB at that point in time we effectively hammered Vivax with that move, even though votes are tied it switches from 4-3-1 (Yamato, Vivax, GB) to 3-3-2 (Vivax, GB, Yamato) if we hadn't of had GB start pushing obi at that point Eden wouldn't of moved to obi more than likely and Vivax would of been lynched.

What is the motivation though to flip a lynch from town Vivax to town Obi if you lynch yourself? I don't think that there is motivation in doing this if you can't guarantee your own survival if both are town, I just don't see it. The only scenario that makes sense to me is that Vivax is a more powerful/important scum team member and GB was trying to save the RB at that junction of the game. It makes the most sense with how the vote went.

The second partner that makes sense is Eden with the ferocity that he tried to hit the votes off of GB and onto Obi. It could very well be Eden was doing that, but I have a hard time that scum Eden would hard align himself with partner GB like that.

The third scenario is that Obi bussed GB into the ground and GB was trying to give him as much cred as possible to take into the end game for the hard carry. This is slightly more likely than 2 especially with how fake the push from GB felt and how contrived it felt also. But I also don't want to give this much thought until we see what Ritoky/Vivax flip at this point without new information.

Koshi (1) - Koshi
Vivax (1) - Yamato77
GlowingBear (3) - Palmar, Damdred, ObiWanShinobi, Sicklurker
Yamato77 (2) - Vivax, ritoky
ObiWanShinobi (2) - Eden, GlowingBear

the green on Eden probably is the lightest and obi is probably the most tinfoil at this moment as a last resort that I don't really believe when he could of hammered Yamato over scum partner GB.

On April 13 2015 11:57 Damdred wrote:
The most likely due to how the votes spontaneously moved about would be Vivax. When myself and Obi moved from Yamato to GB at that point in time we effectively hammered Vivax with that move, even though votes are tied it switches from 4-3-1 (Yamato, Vivax, GB) to 3-3-2 (Vivax, GB, Yamato) if we hadn't of had GB start pushing obi at that point Eden wouldn't of moved to obi more than likely and Vivax would of been lynched.

What is the motivation though to flip a lynch from town Vivax to town Obi if you lynch yourself? I don't think that there is motivation in doing this if you can't guarantee your own survival if both are town, I just don't see it. The only scenario that makes sense to me is that Vivax is a more powerful/important scum team member and GB was trying to save the RB at that junction of the game. It makes the most sense with how the vote went.

The second partner that makes sense is Eden with the ferocity that he tried to hit the votes off of GB and onto Obi. It could very well be Eden was doing that, but I have a hard time that scum Eden would hard align himself with partner GB like that.

The third scenario is that Obi bussed GB into the ground and GB was trying to give him as much cred as possible to take into the end game for the hard carry. This is slightly more likely than 2 especially with how fake the push from GB felt and how contrived it felt also. But I also don't want to give this much thought until we see what Ritoky/Vivax flip at this point without new information.

On April 13 2015 22:39 Damdred wrote:
Traffic was killer this morning sadly.

Ok Koshi, can you tell me why you like an obi scum more than Vivax/Yamato at this point?