Ctrl-F Damdred in Ritoky's filter, 90 results.
Ctrl-F Onegu, 46 results.
Ctrl-F Breshke, 28 results.
Ctrl-F Superbia, 22 results.
Ctrl-F Fecal, 22 results.

Ritoky seems much more concerned with going after Damdred than finding out who's mafia in the PoE group, which COULD be town but if I'm right it also really serves a mafia agenda. I'm fine with lynching him today. Also ok with Superbia.

Onegu

United States9699 Posts

March 28 2015 13:53 GMT

#7682

On March 28 2015 20:25 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Ctrl-F Damdred in Ritoky's filter, 90 results.
Ctrl-F Onegu, 46 results.
Ctrl-F Breshke, 28 results.
Ctrl-F Superbia, 22 results.
Ctrl-F Fecal, 22 results.

Ritoky seems much more concerned with going after Damdred than finding out who's mafia in the PoE group, which COULD be town but if I'm right it also really serves a mafia agenda. I'm fine with lynching him today. Also ok with Superbia.

Out of these two id more prefer superbia over ritoky. The wagons went off of him onto two town wagons. Plus I had my Rayn soul read and it would really devistate me if this was the first time I was wrong.

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

March 28 2015 14:54 GMT

#7683

I think I'd prefer Superbia over Rayn right now.

Looking back at d1/n1 with the info we now have, writing this down as if I'm looking down on me from someone else position:

The wagons where on LS at some point but mostly between BM, Vivax and Toad.
We also "know" that Vivax shot Alakaslam and got roleblocked
We also "know" that Toad shot VE
We also "know" that mafia probably wanted BM dead over Vivax and Toad by virtue of Palmar switching over last second when he had all the reasons he needed to tell us he keeps on tunneling me resulting in a Vivax-lynch.

What we get from that is that mafia probably felt pretty safe to at least get that d2 lynch, why else would Palmar risk that voteswitch?
Most likely explanation is that they rb'ed Vivax on purpose for confusion. Both to not lose a possible as well as easy mislynch in Alakaslam (as we've seen last day) as well as getting the "wait, how do we know Vivax isn't just lying?" reaction when only 3 people flip starting d2. People getting mad that HFs plan did not give any information about the vigs alignment and all. They probably either shot into protection (Onegu) or were stopped from killing someone (Onegu). That specific issue isn't something for this post but just for completeness sake.

As such I think that mafia really did feel good. While Rayn/ritoky are an option for today it's a little hard to believe for me that him being mafia leads to mafia thinking they're good to get the ML on d2 no matter what, when a lynch on Toad or Vivax should have made them think that'd give a lot more traction for another ML in whoever did not get lynched that day. Just think about people shouting "Aaaah, Vivax flipped town, lynch Toad!" or "Aaaah, 'Toad flipped town, lynch Vivax!". That seems like the easier ML to get to me.
Rayn was scumread by HF, who flipped that night and people went back to read HF that night because of it.
Maybe they thought the lynch was so set in stone between Vivax and Toad that they can take that risk and go for the confusion RB to keep Alakaslam alive as a mislynch but the more plausible answer should be that none of the mafias was in serious danger of getting lynched d1 imo. I'm fairly confident that had we not gotten that track result on LightningStrike we probably would have lynched Rayn that day after Vivax and I calmed down. At the VERY least he was a serious contender for some lynching comming his way.

Thus I'd say we lynch superbia over ritoky.

Vivax

22350 Posts

March 28 2015 16:14 GMT

#7684

I'm fine with just lynching down Eden's list at this point.

Vivax

22350 Posts

March 28 2015 16:17 GMT

#7685

There's just one problem I see with the NK. Why was he killed over Trfel who killed a scum on D2 through his claim?

Onegu

United States9699 Posts

March 28 2015 16:20 GMT

#7686

On March 29 2015 01:17 Vivax wrote:
There's just one problem I see with the NK. Why was he killed over Trfel who killed a scum on D2 through his claim?

I trust Eden to solve the game over trfel no offense, and Eden wasn't being lynched today

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

March 28 2015 16:22 GMT

#7687

Eden is probably just the better player and way more influential than trfel?
If anything Eden being shot should make you think they want him dead because his reads over Trfel if you really think Trfel should have died instead.

Damdred

15669 Posts

March 28 2015 16:23 GMT

#7688

I'm not sure why mafia would instant claim red check on LS though, when we had the ability just to tunnel on one of you or toad or slam and save LS lynch for another day?

Artanis[Xp]

Netherlands12971 Posts

March 28 2015 16:39 GMT

#7689

Toad, Mafia didn't know who the vigis wanted to shoot as you've said before (though it's not that relevant for the rest of the analysis). I agree that it's likely mafia wanted to keep both vigis alive for the exact situation that occured though.

As for them preferring a vigi lynch to secure the other vigi lynch the next day I'm not sure I agree with that conclusion. As things went, the day was set to argue a lot about the vigi claims as well as the RB. I believe that would cloud the discussion on Rayn a lot. I also think that shooting someone that suspects you reduces your chances of getting lynched rather than increases. Sure, we read HF, but that influence fades quite quickly. Slam was also a very viable mislynch going into D2. Mafia had enough mislynch leads leading into D2.

Somethingthly, by the time the switch from Vivax to BM started occurring Rayn was already far out of reach for a lynch so I don't really buy that as an argument either.

All that said I don't really care whom from Ritoky and Superbia we lynch first, I'm quite sold on both of them being scum and if you want Superbia first that's fine with me.

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

March 28 2015 17:00 GMT

#7690

Oh right, I forgot about the fact that noone had an idea on who was about to get shot. I stay with my conlclusion that they wanted to frame one of us and keep either VE or Slam, as a possible mislynch though. Just that mafia probably didn't know which one it would be and didn't care. Both could have easily been lynched with how they looked. We shot them for a reason after all.

About the "clouding the discussion", could be, especially if they already knew they're going to shoot HF and get him (?). He made the lynch switch to BM and could have been they were scared he'd be able to get that done on d2 as well (assuming he survives / they don't shoot him).

I mean my entire point is that getting BM was apparently valued higher than Vivax or Toad so I don't disagree with that. I just think that if Mafia was desperate and scared to lose someone d2 going for either of the two vigs on the d1 lynch would have been the safer play for them?
And as I say that I realized that all of Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar (holy fuck that took forever) were late switchers as well and not just Palmar

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

March 28 2015 17:02 GMT

#7691

I should write a script that makes that mixed color if I want to keep on using it that way

Artanis[Xp]

Netherlands12971 Posts

March 28 2015 17:04 GMT

#7692

I just don't think Rayn was the obvious D2 lynch if the orb thing didn't happen that you might think it was, which means your argument doesn't hold that much water.

Vivax

22350 Posts

March 28 2015 17:09 GMT

#7693

BUT THATS THE THING. Eden didn't say anything me, Artanis or Toad weren't already suggesting. Between us, I don't see any read of his that could have been much more different than ours.

Vivax

22350 Posts

March 28 2015 17:10 GMT

#7694

He suggests FF, breshke, super, ritoky I think. Nothing exceptional here, while scum was very conservative with the previous kills just killing off claimed roles or what they believed was a role (yes going with believing Onegu is town still).

Vivax

22350 Posts

March 28 2015 17:11 GMT

#7695

Now they change the pattern when the most logical next kill would be trfel, so that makes me paranoid.

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

March 28 2015 17:11 GMT

#7696

On March 29 2015 02:09 Vivax wrote:
BUT THATS THE THING. Eden didn't say anything me, Artanis or Toad weren't already suggesting. Between us, I don't see any read of his that could have been much more different than ours.

what if those reads are correct and mafia simply has to start shooting somewhere?

Artanis[Xp]

Netherlands12971 Posts

March 28 2015 17:16 GMT

#7697

No, Eden organized town in a way that no one else has. You saw how after the way I interacted with Superbia and ended up backing off on him, Eden came in and drew the logical conclusions I didn't make at the time. He had a good overhead view that mafia obviously wanted out of the game. I expected Eden to be the kill tbh.

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

March 28 2015 17:23 GMT

#7698

yeah same. Was pretty sure Eden would get killed. That aside Breshke might not look as good as I thought he did

He was the 3rd last on BM on D1 with everything being

On March 21 2015 07:33 Breshke wrote:
I am also backing your plan HF. Also superbia easy townread now

I,ll end up switching to BM because i like the plan more but i have no fuckin idea on that guy. Why not SL instead?

I think I gave him a slight townread earlier because I read that as " Why not SL instead?" as LS and not SL... just took a look at wether he ever put his vote down that way, he never did and then realized he's talking about SL and not LS lol

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

March 28 2015 17:24 GMT

#7699

everything Rayn had to say about the BM lynch:

On March 21 2015 07:42 raynpelikoneet wrote:
or Holyflare i don't even fucking know any more.

On March 21 2015 07:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
##unvote
##vote Bill Murray

Those three all look super bad

Artanis[Xp]

Netherlands12971 Posts

March 28 2015 17:31 GMT

#7700

On March 29 2015 02:23 Toadesstern wrote:
yeah same. Was pretty sure Eden would get killed. That aside Breshke might not look as good as I thought he did

He was the 3rd last on BM on D1 with everything being

Show nested quote +

I never thought Breshke looked good for what he posted, but rather for how he posted. Did my meta a while ago. It's possible he's adapted a bit though, and I saw some hints of the scum aggression and certainty at points throughout this game, but I don't think he's a better lynch over Superbia/Ritoky today.