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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
Ctrl-F Onegu, 46 results. Ctrl-F Breshke, 28 results. Ctrl-F Superbia, 22 results. Ctrl-F Fecal, 22 results. Ritoky seems much more concerned with going after Damdred than finding out who's mafia in the PoE group, which COULD be town but if I'm right it also really serves a mafia agenda. I'm fine with lynching him today. Also ok with Superbia. | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
On March 28 2015 20:25 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Ctrl-F Damdred in Ritoky's filter, 90 results. Ctrl-F Onegu, 46 results. Ctrl-F Breshke, 28 results. Ctrl-F Superbia, 22 results. Ctrl-F Fecal, 22 results. Ritoky seems much more concerned with going after Damdred than finding out who's mafia in the PoE group, which COULD be town but if I'm right it also really serves a mafia agenda. I'm fine with lynching him today. Also ok with Superbia. Out of these two id more prefer superbia over ritoky. The wagons went off of him onto two town wagons. Plus I had my Rayn soul read and it would really devistate me if this was the first time I was wrong. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Looking back at d1/n1 with the info we now have, writing this down as if I'm looking down on me from someone else position: The wagons where on LS at some point but mostly between BM, Vivax and Toad. We also "know" that Vivax shot Alakaslam and got roleblocked We also "know" that Toad shot VE We also "know" that mafia probably wanted BM dead over Vivax and Toad by virtue of Palmar switching over last second when he had all the reasons he needed to tell us he keeps on tunneling me resulting in a Vivax-lynch. What we get from that is that mafia probably felt pretty safe to at least get that d2 lynch, why else would Palmar risk that voteswitch? Most likely explanation is that they rb'ed Vivax on purpose for confusion. Both to not lose a possible as well as easy mislynch in Alakaslam (as we've seen last day) as well as getting the "wait, how do we know Vivax isn't just lying?" reaction when only 3 people flip starting d2. People getting mad that HFs plan did not give any information about the vigs alignment and all. They probably either shot into protection (Onegu) or were stopped from killing someone (Onegu). That specific issue isn't something for this post but just for completeness sake. As such I think that mafia really did feel good. While Rayn/ritoky are an option for today it's a little hard to believe for me that him being mafia leads to mafia thinking they're good to get the ML on d2 no matter what, when a lynch on Toad or Vivax should have made them think that'd give a lot more traction for another ML in whoever did not get lynched that day. Just think about people shouting "Aaaah, Vivax flipped town, lynch Toad!" or "Aaaah, 'Toad flipped town, lynch Vivax!". That seems like the easier ML to get to me. Rayn was scumread by HF, who flipped that night and people went back to read HF that night because of it. Maybe they thought the lynch was so set in stone between Vivax and Toad that they can take that risk and go for the confusion RB to keep Alakaslam alive as a mislynch but the more plausible answer should be that none of the mafias was in serious danger of getting lynched d1 imo. I'm fairly confident that had we not gotten that track result on LightningStrike we probably would have lynched Rayn that day after Vivax and I calmed down. At the VERY least he was a serious contender for some lynching comming his way. Thus I'd say we lynch superbia over ritoky. | ||
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Vivax
22297 Posts
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Vivax
22297 Posts
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
On March 29 2015 01:17 Vivax wrote: There's just one problem I see with the NK. Why was he killed over Trfel who killed a scum on D2 through his claim? I trust Eden to solve the game over trfel no offense, and Eden wasn't being lynched today | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
If anything Eden being shot should make you think they want him dead because his reads over Trfel if you really think Trfel should have died instead. | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
As for them preferring a vigi lynch to secure the other vigi lynch the next day I'm not sure I agree with that conclusion. As things went, the day was set to argue a lot about the vigi claims as well as the RB. I believe that would cloud the discussion on Rayn a lot. I also think that shooting someone that suspects you reduces your chances of getting lynched rather than increases. Sure, we read HF, but that influence fades quite quickly. Slam was also a very viable mislynch going into D2. Mafia had enough mislynch leads leading into D2. Somethingthly, by the time the switch from Vivax to BM started occurring Rayn was already far out of reach for a lynch so I don't really buy that as an argument either. All that said I don't really care whom from Ritoky and Superbia we lynch first, I'm quite sold on both of them being scum and if you want Superbia first that's fine with me. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
About the "clouding the discussion", could be, especially if they already knew they're going to shoot HF and get him (?). He made the lynch switch to BM and could have been they were scared he'd be able to get that done on d2 as well (assuming he survives / they don't shoot him). I mean my entire point is that getting BM was apparently valued higher than Vivax or Toad so I don't disagree with that. I just think that if Mafia was desperate and scared to lose someone d2 going for either of the two vigs on the d1 lynch would have been the safer play for them? And as I say that I realized that all of Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar (holy fuck that took forever) were late switchers as well and not just Palmar | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
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Vivax
22297 Posts
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Vivax
22297 Posts
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Vivax
22297 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 29 2015 02:09 Vivax wrote: BUT THATS THE THING. Eden didn't say anything me, Artanis or Toad weren't already suggesting. Between us, I don't see any read of his that could have been much more different than ours. what if those reads are correct and mafia simply has to start shooting somewhere? | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
He was the 3rd last on BM on D1 with everything being On March 21 2015 07:33 Breshke wrote: I am also backing your plan HF. Also superbia easy townread now I,ll end up switching to BM because i like the plan more but i have no fuckin idea on that guy. Why not SL instead? I think I gave him a slight townread earlier because I read that as " Why not SL instead?" as LS and not SL... just took a look at wether he ever put his vote down that way, he never did and then realized he's talking about SL and not LS lol | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 21 2015 07:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: or Holyflare i don't even fucking know any more. On March 21 2015 07:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: ##unvote ##vote Bill Murray Those three all look super bad | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12970 Posts
On March 29 2015 02:23 Toadesstern wrote: yeah same. Was pretty sure Eden would get killed. That aside Breshke might not look as good as I thought he did He was the 3rd last on BM on D1 with everything being I think I gave him a slight townread earlier because I read that as " Why not SL instead?" as LS and not SL... just took a look at wether he ever put his vote down that way, he never did and then realized he's talking about SL and not LS lol I never thought Breshke looked good for what he posted, but rather for how he posted. Did my meta a while ago. It's possible he's adapted a bit though, and I saw some hints of the scum aggression and certainty at points throughout this game, but I don't think he's a better lynch over Superbia/Ritoky today. | ||
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