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On March 19 2015 04:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2015 04:37 Eden1892 wrote:On March 19 2015 04:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Eden:
- why do you give reasons for ritoky to be mafia with JAT then read him town?
- why did you want to lynch ritoky on D1 with your scumread JAT?
- why do you instantly vote for Palmar for his claim on D2?
- On D2 you HC scumread Damdred and Onegu, then you go to Palmar + marv being mafia. Why?
- also what marv asked you In order: - I don't feel like I did this. I concluded based on the first part (which you had in green) that JAT busing wasn't out of the question. But I raised a counterargument, which I felt was more convincing, that ritoky would have bused JAT back. Regardless of whether or not the mafia team sacs ritoky to save JAT or the reverse, either way you would expect mutual busing to maximize the probability that people believe it was a bus. That this didn't happen invalidated it to me as a bus.
- Because I thought both of them were pretty good shots to flip mafia at the time, I figured either lynch was fine. I decided that between the two, ritoky as town wasn't likely to do anything else to make himself seem town later on, whereas JAT probably would. So in the event that I'm wrong about either one, it's better to mislynch the one who is less likely to prove himself town later than to mislynch the one who will.
- It was a joke, as I've explained before. You'll notice that I didn't seriously pursue Palmar as a lynch at the time. I came back to him being mafia later but for different reasons.
- I don't remember hardcore scumreading Onegu
 so I don't know what to say about that without rereading my filter to find it. If you can tell me where you found it and save me the time of digging through all my shitty posts to find it, I'd appreciate it. I think I've explained why I went off of Damdred already - his changing-style thing rang true and then he softed a PR. Sorry if that's not satisfying enough but that's what it is and I don't have anything else to say about it. I moved through a lot of people to get to Palmar and marv being mafia, it was primarily POE plus not feeling like they were obvious town at the time. I moved around a lot on d2 and I don't really remember all of it either.
- I answered marv on ritoky already, if you need more detail then feel free to ask.
(1) well you did. you should probably read your own post about it again if you feel like you didn't and explain it. (2) ehhh... i don't think this is a good reason. like you are basically saying you didn't care to lynch the person who is most likely to be mafia on D1.. (3) Yeah ofc you don't. I don't care about it. I care about the fact your initial response seemed like you knew Palmar is lying which you cannot know unless you know Palmar is lying which again, you cannot know unless you are mafia and killed rsoultin. Like i don't see why a townie makes this joke. (4) you did: Show nested quote +On March 13 2015 13:39 Eden1892 wrote:On March 13 2015 13:34 Onegu wrote:
Ok I have skimmed everything. The way Eden reacted to Palmars claim was really weird. Then the way he reacted to LS making his blue claim was really weird. I also don't really see Damdred as scum here. His case on Damdred isn't very strong its basicly Damdred isnt solving the game.
Eden is shoveling shit on everyone. He has in just day two gone with as mafia:
Palmar
Rayn
Me
Ritoky
Damdred
LS
That's over half the player list. He isn't trying to figure the game out just yelling whenever something comes up. I know he changes his reads often, but this game he doesn't change his reads he just drops them to pick them up later, there is a big difference.
##Vote: Eden1892
This guy is very likely mafia too fwiw. I am very clearly trying to figure the game out and I'm being incredibly detailed by my own standards in laying out my arguments. What was weird about my reaction to either claim? Be specific. Why don't you see Damdred as mafia? What's weak about my case on Damdred? Do you disagree that Damdred isn't trying to solve the game, and if so, why do you disagree? If you agree, why do you think that isn't alignment-indicative? Again, specifics. What reads did I drop to pick up later, and what is suspicious about doing so? Show nested quote +On March 13 2015 13:39 Eden1892 wrote:On March 13 2015 13:34 Onegu wrote:
Ok I have skimmed everything. The way Eden reacted to Palmars claim was really weird. Then the way he reacted to LS making his blue claim was really weird. I also don't really see Damdred as scum here. His case on Damdred isn't very strong its basicly Damdred isnt solving the game.
Eden is shoveling shit on everyone. He has in just day two gone with as mafia:
Palmar
Rayn
Me
Ritoky
Damdred
LS
That's over half the player list. He isn't trying to figure the game out just yelling whenever something comes up. I know he changes his reads often, but this game he doesn't change his reads he just drops them to pick them up later, there is a big difference.
##Vote: Eden1892
On March 13 2015 13:37 Onegu wrote:On March 13 2015 13:33 ritoky wrote:
basically i think the following:
i am confirmed VT, onegu is like 90% VT, LS is uncc'd PR, rayn claimed PR
there's your town.
koochi is probably town unless he lives too long, then he did the strat he did with slam that i mentioned earlier. someone should remember that post if i am not around.
so the lynches should be between eden, damdred, marv, prp, and palmar
there's 2 mafia in that group.
i am reading damdred town for now...dunno he faded over the night phase for me, but not enough to be called scum.
last time i saw palmar troll like this he was town, imagine he can do it as either alignment, so meh; w/e pass for today.
lynch for today eden, marv, or prp.
voila solved the day phase. This is really close to my reads, I'd put Koshi higher and I am fairly sure marv is town. I could see Damdred being scum but meh. Boy bye Show nested quote +On March 13 2015 13:42 Eden1892 wrote:
##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Onegu
Slipping in 2 consecutive posts is pretty impressive Show nested quote +On March 13 2015 13:43 Eden1892 wrote:New page new post On March 13 2015 13:34 Onegu wrote:
Ok I have skimmed everything. The way Eden reacted to Palmars claim was really weird. Then the way he reacted to LS making his blue claim was really weird. I also don't really see Damdred as scum here. His case on Damdred isn't very strong its basicly Damdred isnt solving the game. On March 13 2015 13:37 Onegu wrote:
This is really close to my reads, I'd put Koshi higher and I am fairly sure marv is town. I could see Damdred being scum but meh. Show nested quote +On March 13 2015 13:48 Eden1892 wrote:
...how is it not? You literally were scumreading me because you thought my case on Damdred was bad and Damdred wasn't mafia. Said literally "I can't see Damdred as mafia." Then the NEXT DAMN POST you say "I could see Damdred as mafia." How do you even do that as town? after this you go to: Show nested quote +On March 13 2015 13:58 Eden1892 wrote:
##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Damdred
I don't even care about Onegu anymore whatever. This game is ass. and after this you go to something else.... (5) ok
(1) I don't get where I'm supposed to explain more here. I addressed the possibility that JAT could have bused but then concluded based on the other half of my argument that ritoky was more likely to be town anyway. I don't feel this is inconsistent or needs further explanation. I cited what I thought all of the relevant arguments were, evaluated them and concluded ritoky was town. What exactly is incorrect or needs further explanation here? It's not like I said "XYZ reasons ritoky is mafia, so JAT could have bused. But he's town" without any further explanation. I said that I didn't think it could be a bus due to the lack of mutual busing, so ritoky is town.
(2) It isn't that. I didn't know which one was more likely to be mafia. They both seemed like good candidates at the time. Without knowing the probability of success, I chose the less bad failure mode. If I'd been able to conclude that JAT was significantly more likely to be mafia than ritoky, I'd have voted JAT. I just incorrectly concluded that the difference between them was insignificant and voted based on minimizing loss if I were wrong.
(3) The joke isn't that he lied you goofball  It's that he shot rso who I really enjoy playing with and townread this game. I was really happy that we finally rolled town together and then she gets shot n1 and Palmar claimed it, so I jokingly voted him for it cuz he destroyed the Eden/rso town dream team.
(4) Oh yeah that. I got mad because no one was listening to me and went back to the first lynch no one was listening to me about. This is a common theme this game.
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Also where's Koshi? Dude's been gone since the flip...
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On March 19 2015 05:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
did you ever read my/marv exchange about that very post about ritoky?
Skimmed while driving lol
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Actually maybe not. Where is it? If it's six hrs ago I prolly super skimmed while I was getting ready for work.
Either way, what should I be looking for to comment on
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On March 19 2015 05:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2015 05:08 Eden1892 wrote:
Also where's Koshi? Dude's been gone since the flip... well he is not mafia anyways so why do you care?
I wanna know where he's at right now. Given how sure he was that Onegu flipped town, I figured he would be active today trying to process the new information like I've had to be.
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Day 1 Vote Count Analysis
justanothertownie (7): Koshi, raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, rsoultin, Onegu, Palmar, Damdred
raynpelikoneet (1): prplhz
marvellosity (1): ritoky
ritoky (1): justanothertownie
Damdred (1): Eden1892
Not Voting (1): marvellosity
Currently justanothertownie is set to be lynched.
First thing is outliers. That's prplhz, marv and me.
It is a little weird that marv ended up on the doc claim that was opposite of the guy he was scumreading all of d1. marv, why did you end up siding with ray over JAT at the end of d1?
But what's more weird is prplhz. This is why he voted ray in the first place:
On March 10 2015 21:05 prplhz wrote:
if rso and marv say it then lets roll with it
##Vote raynpelikoneet
And yet at EOD where are they? rso is on JAT. marv is off ray and thinking about it, then decides to kill JAT. prplhz is... still voting ray lol
prplhz what happened there? If you were sheeping rso and marv on ray then why did you stay on ray after they both left for his counterwagon? I understand that as you said you "were around but busy and not understanding what's going on so just lurking," but I feel like it's more than a little weird that even after both your sheep reads moved off of ray you didn't actually make any decision to change. Why didn't you follow your town reads?
Next, I don't really think Koshi and ray need to explain their vote on JAT. They are pretty townie for it. (Obvious I know but I gotta be complete dammit)
Palmar tho. He votes JAT cuz he claims he sheeps people who care, which actually sounds hella legit. Then he's all like "lol JAT worst euro ml'd d1" and other outright trolling. I have no clue what to make of it. Palmar, why did you switch to JAT d1?
I think I'm gonna post VCA stuff one day at a time so people can start talking about it while I'm working (and also digest my posts more easily).
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On March 19 2015 05:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2015 23:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 18 2015 23:07 marvellosity wrote:
Surely the last two sentences explain why he is invalidating the rest of his theory? No? "The catch here is that JAT is the better scumsided player compared to ritoky pretty easily, and I'd think that in most cases a given scumteam would rather sac ritoky to save JAT than the reverse.""if the mafia team had decided to bus (which, if they're both mafia, JAT pushing ritoky hard = bus), why didn't ritoky push to get JAT lynched?" Show nested quote +On March 18 2015 23:14 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 18 2015 23:11 marvellosity wrote:
he's saying that the inconsistency that he thought made ritoky town was the fact that ritoky didn't bus jat back I am not sure i understand properly. Isn't he saying JAT is a better scumplayer than ritoky, therefore it makes sense ritoky being bussed in this instance. Then he wonders why ritoky didn't bus back? Like the first sentence is the explanation why ritoky did not bus back, because it is one more vote on JAT who is the other wagon. If mafia wanted to bus ritoky to death in order to save JAT why would ritoky vote for JAT? Show nested quote +On March 18 2015 23:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like i know Eden ended up in the right conclusion -> "ritoky is town".
But the thought process he had should imo end up in the opposite conclusion as:
- He gaves all the reasons why ritoky would NOT vote for JAT if he is mafia
- ritoky not voting for JAT makes him town?!?!?
I said this in my first response. I think ritoky would vote for JAT if he were mafia because I think it would be a more plausible bus if it were a two-sided bus instead of one-sided. It makes the distancing greater should one of them flip scum. You might not agree, but that's where I was coming from on that.
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By the way:
Onegu's reputation as a hardcore busser is greatly exaggerated.
There are 2 mafia games for Onegu in the database since the start of 2014. They are Neat and Tidy Mini Mafia and Hammertime Mafia. (Links are to his filters.) He had two partners - Mages and batsnacks - in Neat&Tidy, one partner (Robik) in Hammertime.
The hardcore busing of batsnacks is well-documented here. What's not is that Onegu sorta-townread his other teammate that game and hardcore townread Robik in the other one. People are citing one example out of three as evidence that Onegu is a hardcore busser. It just isn't backed up by the recent data. The only reasonable conclusion to be made from Onegu's recent mafia games is that it is inconclusive as to whether or not Onegu buses frequently.
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On March 19 2015 05:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2015 05:18 Eden1892 wrote:On March 19 2015 05:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 18 2015 23:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 18 2015 23:07 marvellosity wrote:
Surely the last two sentences explain why he is invalidating the rest of his theory? No? "The catch here is that JAT is the better scumsided player compared to ritoky pretty easily, and I'd think that in most cases a given scumteam would rather sac ritoky to save JAT than the reverse.""if the mafia team had decided to bus (which, if they're both mafia, JAT pushing ritoky hard = bus), why didn't ritoky push to get JAT lynched?" On March 18 2015 23:14 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 18 2015 23:11 marvellosity wrote:
he's saying that the inconsistency that he thought made ritoky town was the fact that ritoky didn't bus jat back I am not sure i understand properly. Isn't he saying JAT is a better scumplayer than ritoky, therefore it makes sense ritoky being bussed in this instance. Then he wonders why ritoky didn't bus back? Like the first sentence is the explanation why ritoky did not bus back, because it is one more vote on JAT who is the other wagon. If mafia wanted to bus ritoky to death in order to save JAT why would ritoky vote for JAT? On March 18 2015 23:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like i know Eden ended up in the right conclusion -> "ritoky is town".
But the thought process he had should imo end up in the opposite conclusion as:
- He gaves all the reasons why ritoky would NOT vote for JAT if he is mafia
- ritoky not voting for JAT makes him town?!?!? I said this in my first response. I think ritoky would vote for JAT if he were mafia because I think it would be a more plausible bus if it were a two-sided bus instead of one-sided. It makes the distancing greater should one of them flip scum. You might not agree, but that's where I was coming from on that. I understand that. What i don't understand is that you directly contradict this in the post you made. Not verbally but silently. Like everything behind the words says otherwise while you don't clearly say so.
Er, tell me if I have this right, because I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying that the way I structured that read seems to indicate that I think (or should think) ritoky is mafia?
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On March 19 2015 05:25 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2015 05:16 Eden1892 wrote:
Palmar tho. He votes JAT cuz he claims he sheeps people who care, which actually sounds hella legit. Then he's all like "lol JAT worst euro ml'd d1" and other outright trolling. I have no clue what to make of it. Palmar, why did you switch to JAT d1?
The train was on him, koshi seemed quite passionate about it and I had been scum reading jat all day anyway.
ok, that checks out actually. I should have looked further at your filter than just near EOD
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On March 19 2015 05:32 Palmar wrote:
Eden I have now responded to two of your inquiries. Has this changed your mind at all about me?
somewhat
I'm still trying to figure this out. I would really like to see prplhz's answer to my question about his d1 voting record before I answer this more
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On March 19 2015 05:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2015 05:31 Eden1892 wrote:On March 19 2015 05:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 19 2015 05:18 Eden1892 wrote:On March 19 2015 05:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 18 2015 23:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 18 2015 23:07 marvellosity wrote:
Surely the last two sentences explain why he is invalidating the rest of his theory? No? "The catch here is that JAT is the better scumsided player compared to ritoky pretty easily, and I'd think that in most cases a given scumteam would rather sac ritoky to save JAT than the reverse.""if the mafia team had decided to bus (which, if they're both mafia, JAT pushing ritoky hard = bus), why didn't ritoky push to get JAT lynched?" On March 18 2015 23:14 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 18 2015 23:11 marvellosity wrote:
he's saying that the inconsistency that he thought made ritoky town was the fact that ritoky didn't bus jat back I am not sure i understand properly. Isn't he saying JAT is a better scumplayer than ritoky, therefore it makes sense ritoky being bussed in this instance. Then he wonders why ritoky didn't bus back? Like the first sentence is the explanation why ritoky did not bus back, because it is one more vote on JAT who is the other wagon. If mafia wanted to bus ritoky to death in order to save JAT why would ritoky vote for JAT? On March 18 2015 23:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like i know Eden ended up in the right conclusion -> "ritoky is town".
But the thought process he had should imo end up in the opposite conclusion as:
- He gaves all the reasons why ritoky would NOT vote for JAT if he is mafia
- ritoky not voting for JAT makes him town?!?!? I said this in my first response. I think ritoky would vote for JAT if he were mafia because I think it would be a more plausible bus if it were a two-sided bus instead of one-sided. It makes the distancing greater should one of them flip scum. You might not agree, but that's where I was coming from on that. I understand that. What i don't understand is that you directly contradict this in the post you made. Not verbally but silently. Like everything behind the words says otherwise while you don't clearly say so. Er, tell me if I have this right, because I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying that the way I structured that read seems to indicate that I think (or should think) ritoky is mafia? yes.
OK, not really sure what to tell you then. Shrug. I get what you're saying, it's just not what I was trying to convey.
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On March 19 2015 05:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2015 05:30 Eden1892 wrote:By the way: Onegu's reputation as a hardcore busser is greatly exaggerated.There are 2 mafia games for Onegu in the database since the start of 2014. They are Neat and Tidy Mini Mafia and Hammertime Mafia. (Links are to his filters.) He had two partners - Mages and batsnacks - in Neat&Tidy, one partner (Robik) in Hammertime. The hardcore busing of batsnacks is well-documented here. What's not is that Onegu sorta-townread his other teammate that game and hardcore townread Robik in the other one. People are citing one example out of three as evidence that Onegu is a hardcore busser. It just isn't backed up by the recent data. The only reasonable conclusion to be made from Onegu's recent mafia games is that it is inconclusive as to whether or not Onegu buses frequently. I am not sure who are these people who are using the things you claim here against anyone or however they have anything to do with anything?
That's odd since you explicitly commented on Onegu busing bats earlier. You don't remember doing this? It was earlier today...
I argued prplhz is strong town because Onegu spent the whole time he cared to play trying to kill him. marv said that was bad because Onegu is a hardcore busser. I went to research Onegu's games to see if this held up. It doesn't (imo). I swear I mentioned I would do this not an hour ago lol
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On March 19 2015 05:31 Palmar wrote:
For very selfish reasons I really really Eden to be town.
explain this at eon please
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On March 13 2015 07:08 prplhz wrote:
gf v medic vig seems pretty weak
Errrr how did this guy know there was a godfather in the game...???????
This was start of d2
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On March 19 2015 05:44 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2015 05:37 Eden1892 wrote:On March 19 2015 05:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 19 2015 05:30 Eden1892 wrote:By the way: Onegu's reputation as a hardcore busser is greatly exaggerated.There are 2 mafia games for Onegu in the database since the start of 2014. They are Neat and Tidy Mini Mafia and Hammertime Mafia. (Links are to his filters.) He had two partners - Mages and batsnacks - in Neat&Tidy, one partner (Robik) in Hammertime. The hardcore busing of batsnacks is well-documented here. What's not is that Onegu sorta-townread his other teammate that game and hardcore townread Robik in the other one. People are citing one example out of three as evidence that Onegu is a hardcore busser. It just isn't backed up by the recent data. The only reasonable conclusion to be made from Onegu's recent mafia games is that it is inconclusive as to whether or not Onegu buses frequently. I am not sure who are these people who are using the things you claim here against anyone or however they have anything to do with anything? That's odd since you explicitly commented on Onegu busing bats earlier. You don't remember doing this? It was earlier today... I argued prplhz is strong town because Onegu spent the whole time he cared to play trying to kill him. marv said that was bad because Onegu is a hardcore busser. I went to research Onegu's games to see if this held up. It doesn't (imo). I swear I mentioned I would do this not an hour ago lol Yes i know i said that. I don't however think that has anything to do with anything, it only shows Onegu CAN bus, as you state. You also stated Onegu tried to "kill prplhz". Now let's assume prplhz is mafia; is Onegu really a person in this game to push that lynch like ever? The two people in this game alive on D3 i find out to be "unlikely to be pushing anything if mafia" are prplhz and Onegu. Because well... they are unlikely to succeed and more likely to just go with the flow whatever it is.
Eh him pushing prplhz knowing he would be unsuccessful seems weird. But I mean, there's no reason it can't happen.
I'm starting to think prplhz is mafia anyway so I'm fine with you being right here because it saves me the trouble of resolving the fact that one of Onegu's few interests this game was killing his partner.
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On March 19 2015 05:46 Palmar wrote:
In his defense Eden had been talking about mafia setups (if they have/don't have a rb) But I have no idea why his mind went to gf or what that had to do with anything.
Right. There's no reason to think there's a godfather based on what we know, and no one was talking about a cop or anything.
That and, however weak it is, nothing we know about the flips has invalidated gf/goon/goon setup (which is important, because if JAT had flipped rb or something, he wouldn't have "slipped" into revealing that there was only a godfather for scum).
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On March 12 2015 19:57 prplhz wrote:
marv kinda forcing me to be a whiny bitch in my town games from now on
On March 15 2015 03:21 prplhz wrote:
marv just seems town too. i like most of the things he's said especially pretty much confirming me, partly by revealing some town tell (the whiny bitch tell).
The only relevant quotes I found before I stopped searching, seems sufficient to establish the point that no, at no point did prplhz question it. To be fair, I think if he were town he could say this just as well as if he were mafia. He probably wasn't aware of the tell's existence in the first place. I think if I were in his shoes and if it were a new tell for me, I would be disinclined to question it much too (I'd more be surprised at not having noticed it).
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On March 19 2015 05:57 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2015 05:42 Eden1892 wrote:On March 13 2015 07:08 prplhz wrote:
gf v medic vig seems pretty weak Errrr how did this guy know there was a godfather in the game...??????? This was start of d2 dunno look at my setup speculation this game if i'm going to be lynched for anything i want it to be this though
...I did...? And that's what's stumping me. You just kinda come up with it out of nowhere unexplained and then never mention it again. Do you not remember why you said this?
And sure, your wish is probably my command.
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On March 19 2015 05:59 prplhz wrote:
there's more but i'm not going to find it for you right now
Cool, you got 37 hours anyway. 37 cuz if you wait til the last 12 hours I'm probably lynching you anyway
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EPT
