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On February 20 2015 07:57 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 07:54 zlefin wrote:
you have about an hour jarjar; though I have to recommend a Silver vote over Trfel.
According to Tere's theory, Trfel and Silver are the two scum.
So if she's right, silver is scum.
If she's wrong, there's viewpoints from other people that still point to Silver being scum.
So Silver is more likely to be scum than Trfel, so better to vote Silver. You have a point here, but most people's cases on silver are because of the lurking which screams mislynch. Give me time. I might end up doubting my vote and killing the lurker anyways lol
noted. Just making sure you're aware that it's lurking with the comments being made being unhelpful; as opposed to lurking lowactivity but with the activity being done helpful.
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I've got some stuff to do shortly, may or may not be back for EoD.
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Tere, why are you so concerned? By your own belief, Silver is also one of the scum, and a scum lynch is a good lynch.
It's not THAT important which one we do first.
Also, people very pointedly noted that on Silver, the issue isn't just filter length, but that the content itself is dreadfully weak.
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by the way JJB, the name's zlefin, not zfelin.
using caps for clarity: ZLEFIN, not ZFELIN.
I don't mind that much, it's just helpful if people spell it right.
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Ah good, and we got the roleblocker too, that is significant. I wasn't aware that we'd get the role played by the person, I thought we'd only get whether they were mafia/town; I guess I hadn't read the rules carefully enough.
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On February 20 2015 09:13 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 09:05 Tere wrote:
Set up is: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Doctor, 6 Vanilla Townie (from first post) Scum slip? Only scum knows set up. Yes, you could argue the RB flip confirms it but Ely is still not confirmed Doc. He might as well be but he isn't. I'm not really sure why you posted this, since its a point we could have all made on our own. Only 2 total setups with both a role blocker and Doctor. No Vigi claim and no N1 shot.
dangit shining, I was all set to be happy with this game and you had to go and say something like this to make me suspect you of being up to something.
It's not a scum slip, because elyas is confirmed doctor. roles are revealed on death, so we know we've lost 2 VT and 1 mafia roleblocker.
EVERYONE who's still alive in the game has posted after the lynch.
Which means if Elyas is lying about being the doctor, then one of the other living players MUST be the blue, and all they have to do is counterclaim and town wins guaranteed by lynching them both. They've already had the opportunity to do so, and did not do so. Which makes Elyas confirmed blue (unless someone somehow didn't realize this, and is a blue, and hasn't counterclaimed yet, in which case, DO SO BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT).
The only setup with roleblocker which we know to exist, AND a doctor, has no other blues. So therefore if ANY other player has ANY blue, elyas would have to be lying, which again is the counterclaim and town wins scenario.
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Case? who needs cases?
While I may do some looking to help rule out unlikely possibilities, my early day 2 assessments haven't changed, except for Elyas being blue. So Tere is, and has been, next on my list for some time, and everything since then supports the notion that Tere is the best lynch for the next day. So that's where I'll be placing my vote.
PS IF ANYONE OTHER THAN ELYAS IS BLUE COUNTERCLAIM ALREADY BECAUSE IT MAKES TOWN WIN.
saying that since shining said some people somehow screwed up on that in other games he's played.
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Well, going on with the preplanned and group agreed target.
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I've been well aware of that possibility.
But I still think the Tere slot is the best lynch for today.
If that lynch turns town, then I'll do a serious reconsideration of things.
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On February 21 2015 21:39 Palmar wrote:
As a fun project, how about everyone that intends to lynch me puts together in their own words a summary as to why I must be mafia. Please demonstrate why my previous actions in this game must necessarily come from mafia.
Shouldn't take more than 15 minutes per player, there is virtually no downside in doing it, and a huge upside (you might dodge a mislynch!)
I don't want to spend the time. I'd already had this lynch chosen before you subbed into the game; and nothing Tere could've said would change it.
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On February 22 2015 02:05 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2015 01:56 zlefin wrote:On February 21 2015 21:39 Palmar wrote:
As a fun project, how about everyone that intends to lynch me puts together in their own words a summary as to why I must be mafia. Please demonstrate why my previous actions in this game must necessarily come from mafia.
Shouldn't take more than 15 minutes per player, there is virtually no downside in doing it, and a huge upside (you might dodge a mislynch!) I don't want to spend the time. I'd already had this lynch chosen before you subbed into the game; and nothing Tere could've said would change it. This is such a monumentally stupid stance to take. If you follow through with this, and you happen to be town, you will be the most to blame of everyone in the game for this mislynch. You refuse to play the game because you're terrible (or maybe mafia? in which case I'm fine with it).
Since you're being rude I'm just going to ignore you after this.
There are plenty of good reasons, and they have all been detailed in the thread by myself and others. I don't want to do extra work because someone else subbed in last minute into a position which was already going to be lynched. I already did a lot of analysis and thinking and talking which points to where the best lynch is.
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Not sure what you mean by tunneling. It's not like I think Tere is the only possibility for scum; just the likeliest, and by a large enough margin that new analysis won't (and hasn't as I read through your arguments, they may change my possibility of jjb being scum by +10% or so, but that's still nowhere near enough)
I have had some suspicions of jjb; and my plan remains as before, IF tere flips town, then I'll put in some serious looking and review his filter. I just don't want to spend oodles of time if the game is already over.
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Going to sleep soon, will look over the cases tomorrow.
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On February 23 2015 08:15 The Shining wrote:
Ebwop: I really find it telling that Trfel can find better defenses for JJB than JJB can. Originally typed Trfel by mistake.
It should be noted, trfel also did a better defense of me than I did. Which points to trfel simply being better at defending.
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On February 23 2015 08:34 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2015 08:07 jarjarbinks wrote:On February 23 2015 07:45 Palmar wrote:
jarjar who is the mafia tomorrow? lol there won't be a tomorrow! You are showing that you are trying, which draws confusion. After some analysis you go ahead and sheep shining's read because it is your only way out from getting lynched. And don't even think I missed that feel question from you before you decided to finally vote for me. You were definitely checking to see if I thought about voting shining, so you can change the way you are making your reads. This point is bad. I am not in any danger of being mislynched at this point. Trfel seems to still be leaning strong town on me, Zlefin is very obstinate about us all being town and Palmar being scum, and you and Palmar alone cannot lynch me. And Palmar is only slightly suspicious. Also, being original in being the only one being suspicious of me. So why would he think about you voting me? Its a wasted vote, and a weird point for you to bring up.
I'm annoyed at you about this. Please don't misrepresent my position.
I stated my position VERY clearly and repeatedly in thread.
I never said you were all town and tere was scum. I said it was the best lynch by a sufficiently large margin that that wasn't going to change with more analysis.
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You only knew that you were right after the fact, before that it was an educated guess only.
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On February 23 2015 09:56 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2015 09:39 zlefin wrote:
You only knew that you were right after the fact, before that it was an educated guess only. I'm done sparing feelings. Bad post is bad. I capitalized the word KNOW for the exact reason you made this post. The sentence is a very clear "I feel stronger about it now that I KNOW I'm right" inferring I didn't know I was right beforehand. Thank you for paraphrasing what I said but wording it so that it reflects negatively on me. Trfel, you casing Zlefin? You seem to think JJB isn't the lynch here. You are who I least suspect. If you stick by your hints, I assume you'll be looking into Zlefin.
apologies for misreading that one then.
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On February 23 2015 09:47 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2015 09:38 zlefin wrote:On February 23 2015 08:34 The Shining wrote:On February 23 2015 08:07 jarjarbinks wrote:On February 23 2015 07:45 Palmar wrote:
jarjar who is the mafia tomorrow? lol there won't be a tomorrow! You are showing that you are trying, which draws confusion. After some analysis you go ahead and sheep shining's read because it is your only way out from getting lynched. And don't even think I missed that feel question from you before you decided to finally vote for me. You were definitely checking to see if I thought about voting shining, so you can change the way you are making your reads. This point is bad. I am not in any danger of being mislynched at this point. Trfel seems to still be leaning strong town on me, Zlefin is very obstinate about us all being town and Palmar being scum, and you and Palmar alone cannot lynch me. And Palmar is only slightly suspicious. Also, being original in being the only one being suspicious of me. So why would he think about you voting me? Its a wasted vote, and a weird point for you to bring up. I'm annoyed at you about this. Please don't misrepresent my position. I stated my position VERY clearly and repeatedly in thread. I never said you were all town and tere was scum. I said it was the best lynch by a sufficiently large margin that that wasn't going to change with more analysis. WTF is this post?! If you feel she's the best lynch, you think she's scum. By poe, you think everyone not her is town. If that's not true, you don't think she's scum. IF YOU DONT THINK SHES SCUM, WTF WERE YOU VOTING HER?! OK. Be annoyed. I'm not here to coddle you. I'm sorry you feel I misrepresented you. I don't feel that way.
you're just plain wrong here.
It's called estimates, not certainty.
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On February 23 2015 10:23 Trfel wrote:
And The Shining, I agree with jarjarbinks, I think you are tunneled on him. If I find a lynch that I think looks better, I just ask you to consider it with an open mind.
And night kills are WIFOM, it will be hard to make any conclusion at all based on it.
I concur in feeling that shining is tunneling on jjb.
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EPT
