EPTI'm not entirely clear on what you mean by finding a voice; but I know I tend to be more tentative in general than most people, and there isn't a mafia history yet to compare with.
Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 2
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
I'm not entirely clear on what you mean by finding a voice; but I know I tend to be more tentative in general than most people, and there isn't a mafia history yet to compare with. | ||
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zlefin
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zlefin
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On February 17 2015 01:47 Trfel wrote: Zlefin, who do you want to lynch now? (and yes, I read your previous list, if it is the same, then that is fine... unless of course you decide to lynch me, in which case I'll be pretty annoyed) Currently, I'm most likely to lynch Hier. There's a mild chance I choose someone else on my list as a probe for information. On you, I think I'll wait a day at least, I still feel that a lynch on you would provide the most information to guide future plans, but I need to build a better case for that and think about it before going through with it. I'm also deciding whether to vote now, or wait to give Hier a chance to respond before voting, as he's presently asleep. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 17 2015 02:33 rsoultin wrote: If you believe I'm town this game, trust that I will definitely do my best to try to bring the towniness out of Hier before lynching him. I wanted you to start that counterwagon, though, since you seem so certain that Hier is not the lynch. You're not starting it. This is concerning. But apparently you have to go, so I'll just...lol, figure it out from here as best I can xP I share this concern as well; and would like Trfel to build up a counter-case against someone else. Anyone who's >51% but <77% to be town, is still better than an rng lynch, and I don't think anyone here is bad enough that we could get an easy scumread day 1, so we'll have a high mislynch chance regardless. I do wonder what information we gain from a Hier lynch. I feel that if it's a mislynch, we gain very little information to work with, though if it's a right lynch, hmmm. I should go back and figure out what we might conclude in each of the cases for outcomes on a Hier lynch. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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zlefin
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It's an impression I've formed that he's at the nexus of several conversations, and that if I knew he was town, I could point to 2-3 people as the likeliest scum in response, and if I knew he was scum, I could point to 1-2 people as the likeliest other scum. To put another way, I the feeling I get is that if I knew his alignment, it would really strongly narrow down my my suspects, whereas for some other people, a lynch wouldn't help me much. But again, I really need to go back over everything to make sure my feel has some validity. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 17 2015 03:01 Tere wrote: I can try! First off, I think this is his first game: Then says he's a slight town read on trfel and slight scum on jarjar, null on the rest. Wants to consider policy lynching for inactivity after 12 hours, which is a little keen IMO. Says reads are mostly tonal and impressions, which I don't see as alignment indicative (given I use tone a lot myself). Townreads Hier (plan too much effort for scum) and rso (likes objections and analysis) after some clarification on WIFOM, then tries to connect you, demonstrating said WIFOM. Still wants to policy lynch even though he thinks it's unlikely it's a scum tell - which the Shining picked up on and I do think is a bit off too, it's funny logic for town. Dislikes the banter between Trfel and jarjar saying jarjar's joking makes him look scummy (I think the opposite). Doesn't like one of Hier's thesaurus posts (nor did I). Posts up his tally system, saying jarjar, hier, silver and trfel are lynchpool, prefers trfel for most information. Asks if he should OMGUS Shining for his push on him. There's a funny question about town probability of Trfel's townread on Hier. Confirms it is his first game and settles for Hier as most probable lynch. Ugh. There's aspects of that logic that I don't like for town (wanting to policy lynch while recognising unlikely to be scum, disliking the banter, wanting to lynch Trfel for most info despite not finding him the most scummy for example), but I can also see that as coming from newbie town, particularly newbie town who seems to be trying to feel their way on their own without relying too much on their coaching support. Bits look scummy but there might be a genuine reason for that in his new player status. I appreciate that's not much help. As for the policy lynch issue, while it's only a minor one, town depends on information, and if someone is providing little/no information, that's a problem, and a minor scum indication. I generally check up on things on waking up and going to bed, and usually several times over the day in between, so I tend to treat others as if they could do similarly (even if the check is only cursory). Unlikely to be scum doesn't mean can't be scum; like I say, anyone between 51%-77% to be town is still more likely to be scum than an RNG guess. I asked for input on how to handle the policy lynch issue because I wasn't sure, as a lot of that depends on skill level of the people involved, and the local meta on handling such things. Especially if people play at a very basic level such things would be more indicative; what I've found in this game is that people mostly seem moderately experienced, either with mafia games, or with the genre generally, so that they aren't making egregious rookie mistakes. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 17 2015 03:54 jarjarbinks wrote: So is this like your strongest read of the game? Deserving of a -2 score? each read I only score as a single point, unless it's really strong, this was a 1 point scum read; the other -1 came from a general tonal impression over the first RL day or so. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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zlefin
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On February 17 2015 04:10 jarjarbinks wrote: I'm adding to the counterwagon for zlefin. There definitely needs to be one, and I see zlefin as pretty scummy so far. 1. Doesn't really explain scumreads, besides my joke. 2. Is kind of scumhunting, but not really. 3. Most reads are pure tonal. Which is fine, but I can't back that. zlefin if you answer my above question and I like it, I am willing to change my vote. Hier, please post you still have a chance of not dying today. People switch votes all the time in this game. Answering questions helps people understand your thinking and if your town that is good for you as to the reads, what would you have me do? If it's a read that comes from many posts as a vague impression, with no specific posts to point to, then what would you have me do to explain it? | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 17 2015 04:22 jarjarbinks wrote: Got it. Can you explain your Trf flip reasoning from before? I'm not entirely clear on what this question is, but most likely from what you're asking it's what I answered already on page 20 post 3 (assuming everyone has same posts/page) not long ago. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
That said, having periodic summaries of your stance on everyone would increase clarity, and be easier to keep track of. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
Any thoughts/arguments/ideas on what would provide the most town information? | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
Hopefully when I review the filters of my other current null reads I'll find something. | ||
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zlefin
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zlefin
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Lunch is more important than mafia, so go and eat and enjoy! | ||
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zlefin
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On February 17 2015 07:10 rsoultin wrote: We need a wagon. Analyzing the larger picture, unless you have something really good, is probably better suited for the night phase. Admittedly I've been lurking for the last hour or so, to see what happens when I've stepped back from the thread. Zle is not impressing me, either. If we want a vote switch (and I'm still not sure I do, frankly) I'm willing to switch to him. Shining's not being here at all today also isn't sitting well with me. Sorry I couldn't impress you, but there really isn't anything else I can do. | ||
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zlefin
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zlefin
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On February 17 2015 07:19 rsoultin wrote: Zlefin, I don't know, man. Asking who to vote for in thread is weird. It's a newbie game; you have someone to talk to if you're not sure how to play. You just seem super reluctant about this Hier lynch. If you don't think it's right, then I don't understand what you're doing right now. I tend to be a cautious person in general, so it's probably just that you're hearing. I think Hier is about 65% chance of town; so better than an RNG lynch, though hardly a great choice. When I asked who to vote for, I gave a good reason for asking, so that should be fine. I know how to play, but encouraging discussion is good, and I wanted to hear from the other players on the question. | ||
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