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Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 16 2015 23:41 GMT
#542
Well, I'm not gonna push for a Tere lynch today.

Just saw The Shining's post. Guess we are lynching Hier.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 16 2015 23:50 GMT
#548
Not really, I was reading her filter and the image I get is town. I should have said "If Hier flips town, I'll read Tere's posts on a different angle to see if I find something else"
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 16 2015 23:58 GMT
#557
I don't like shennannies, but 7 people on Hier is too much.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 17 2015 00:13 GMT
#573
Well, that was what I feared... gonna get some rest for now.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 17 2015 17:23 GMT
#697
Got some time for this !

Reacting to the current train of thought, rsoultin, do you think jjb has started changing his playstyle to include more traditional reads and playstyle analysis ? Or is he really playing differently and more carefully than normal ?

I intend to share my gameplan, I'm reading some filters right now.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 17 2015 17:38 GMT
#701
First, I've been following from my intention to check Hier's posts on Tere. Tere did vote for Hier really fast, but this is where I think I'm drowning in WIFOM. Would a newcomer mafia autovote on such an obvious wagon ? At that point the count was : 3 votes for Hier and quite the pressure building on him. I don't know where this train of thought is leading me, though.

Tere's case on Hier is also mostly stuff we have said about Hier, be it rsoultin's case or the OMGUSy vote.

I'm not sold on this, but I'm adding Tere on my lynch pool.

I think rsoultin's case on Hier was good and Hier's vote for rsoultin was misguided.
I think you're town, rsoultin, and I really hope it's the case, because if you're scum you're gonna be hard to catch :p
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 17 2015 17:45 GMT
#702
I also really want to hear from The Shining, I liked his opening, but he has been missing since EOD.

I get that you didn't have a lot of time before EOD to share your reads, but I'd really like to read them. Also you started the zlefin wagon and unvoted before EOD, were you looking for someone in particular outside of zlefin / Hier ?
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 17 2015 18:39 GMT
#711
On February 18 2015 02:53 Tere wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2015 02:23 ElyAs wrote:
Got some time for this !

Reacting to the current train of thought, rsoultin, do you think jjb has started changing his playstyle to include more traditional reads and playstyle analysis ? Or is he really playing differently and more carefully than normal ?

I intend to share my gameplan, I'm reading some filters right now.


Hi ElyAs!

If you had two bullets for scum now, who would you use them on and why?


I would use them on my top two scumreads : you and zlefin. Those are weak reads tho, for you it would be voting timing and seemingly sheeping the strongest wagon. zlefin would be because he pushed Hier in a strange way, as I explained in the first part of this post :
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=25#495
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 17 2015 18:46 GMT
#713
On February 18 2015 03:31 Trfel wrote:
I'll be out for a while. Happy scumhunting!

ElyAs, I noticed that your activity died off a bit after the End of Day. Is it possible to get more recent thoughts, specifically with regards to zlefin and Silverarte?


For zlefin, I'm trying to see if I see more of what I see as underhanded pushing in his posts.

Silverarte... I don't have a lot on her. She talks a lot about her work schedule and inactivity, some posts have little content, but her long posts show willingness to play the town game.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 17 2015 18:57 GMT
#714
On February 18 2015 03:42 Tere wrote:
ElyAs, you realise your argument about sheeping the strongest wagon applies equally to you, right, given we were writing our lynch vote rationale at the exact same time?


That is correct. Which is why I said these are weak reads, this timing is shared by me, you and Trfel in a certain way.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 18 2015 11:45 GMT
#809
On February 18 2015 14:50 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2015 14:27 jarjarbinks wrote:
On February 18 2015 02:38 ElyAs wrote:
First, I've been following from my intention to check Hier's posts on Tere. Tere did vote for Hier really fast, but this is where I think I'm drowning in WIFOM. Would a newcomer mafia autovote on such an obvious wagon ? At that point the count was : 3 votes for Hier and quite the pressure building on him. I don't know where this train of thought is leading me, though.

Tere's case on Hier is also mostly stuff we have said about Hier, be it rsoultin's case or the OMGUSy vote.

I'm not sold on this, but I'm adding Tere on my lynch pool.

I think rsoultin's case on Hier was good and Hier's vote for rsoultin was misguided.
I think you're town, rsoultin, and I really hope it's the case, because if you're scum you're gonna be hard to catch :p


This was the case I was mentioning. Maybe Elyas didn't get too far in his Tere case before the Shining switch, then gave up and looked at Tere fresh before this post. Still this case seems worse than the other two he made.
Though this is definitely something to ask about.

A few questions for ElyAs

What do you mean by your lynch pool? Is that the people you would be willing to lynch right now, or the pool of potential lynch candidates, or what?

Any comments on jarjarbinks' observation that this case seems to have taken less effort than your other cases?

Thanks!


My lynch pool is people I'm watching closely, and I'd be willing to lynch for day 2.

I agree that my case on Tere took less effort than my other cases because I found few inconsistencies while skimming her filter, and was pressed by time due to RL issues (had a guest, so I only posted short posts afterwards.)

I do believe, however, that rsoultin's death holds a meaning, more on this on my next post.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 18 2015 11:55 GMT
#810
On February 18 2015 09:12 Trfel wrote:
Sorry for the post spam. My thoughts are coming more randomly at the moment.

Part of me is wondering if rsoultin was killed to help hide a mafia!jarjarbinks. I'm not at all confident in reading a Day 2 jarjarbinks, in the past I've just used rsoultin for that read. Still, though, rsoultin seemed pretty convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so I guess I'll work with that for now.


This post got me thinking. We are in a newbie game so I'll take this in the level zero of mindgames, which means no mindgames, this lynch has a purpose which is not to deceive us.

Silverarte and jarjarbinks know rsoultin well. They know that town rsoultin is a strong player and she knows their playstyle. It's not enough to scream scum imo, but I'm willing to check their filter once again for inconsistencies in their train of thought.

In short, this is not a case yet, these are just my thoughts. As Trfel noted, I'm a mafia rookie and I lack the confidence to be pushing a case off just this detail. But if I find something good, I'll build a case.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 18 2015 11:58 GMT
#811
Sadly, it's the end of my lunch break, I'll try to post more either if I get some time during work or when I'll come back in a few hours.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 18 2015 16:27 GMT
#830
You know what Tere ? I'm sold on you being town, and I really hope I'm right.

When I red your posts and Trfel's snap vote, I skipped a beat because I was starting to townread you and saw one of my townreads vote for you. I'm kinda relieved by Trfel's follow-up.

I know I'm not in the best of lights right now, and I'm gonna try to step up my game to find a good case, I owe it to jarjar and Trfel because their posts gave me a little bit of confidence.

I got an hour to allocate to this game right now and I'll try to use it well. (It is really a time consuming game !)
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 18 2015 16:32 GMT
#831
Also, I didn't realize that The Shining was part of rsoultin's acquaintances, so I'm gonna do the same as jarjar and Silver. Even though I kinda agree with zlefin on his NK post, I want to push that line of reasoning to a certain degree.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 18 2015 17:25 GMT
#833
Filter diving Silverarte :

I'm actually uneasy with Silverarte's posts, they contain a lot of fluff and questions.
Gonna try to follow her train of thought.

Started questioning Hier on the usefulness of his attachement to the Bridges. Is nullreading zlefin.
Thereafter, a lot of fluff and questions. Silverarte's tone is generally playful, but this post seems off:

On February 16 2015 22:39 Silverarte wrote:
@hier
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2015 15:17 Hier wrote:
On February 16 2015 15:10 rsoultin wrote:
On February 16 2015 14:52 rsoultin wrote:
On February 16 2015 14:47 Hier wrote:
On February 16 2015 12:51 rsoultin wrote:
On February 16 2015 07:08 Hier wrote:

rsoultin:

In 3 separate posts you have described your reads to be null towards people that have posted, and despite you not liking the Bridges method, which is fine, said that it is something a town player may suggest thinking it’s good.

Later, after someone mentioned they weren't a fan of my model, you've gone to suggest that I've done nothing to show that I care about finding scum,

all the while you proclaim your reads are null and just ask what other players’ reads are. That is the way mafia players probe the scene to start a bandwagon.

Why else, out of the blue, without any further analysis, would you vote me to be lynched with the phrase “Tell me why I’m wrong, or get onboard.”? No, it is your job to tell everyone the reasons behind your vote, not to tell everyone to get onboard.


Okay, in the interest of fairness, if you genuinely believe each of these claims, I can understand your scumread. So I'm going to ask you to actually quote the posts I made that led you to the three bolded conclusions. Preferably in context, because if you misrepresent me I do very much have a tendency to get tunneled xP

Once you've done so, I'll answer the last bit.

Alright. You went back to my original accusation, to which you have already responded, and are now demanding further explanation when, quite literally, nobody else is asking for it. People have already read my statement and have made up their minds, whatever those may be. You are creating artificial content by searching for an excuse to re-state your innocence, and projecting the appearance of scum hunting at the same time. That would create drivel. You have not been the centre of discussion for several pages, and nobody has been tunnelling you, much less me. Right now it looks like the one doing the tunnelling is you. Look, for now my vote stays where it is. If you post something that changes my mind or a more obvious scum target comes up I promise I will be the first one to let you know. For now let me focus on somebody else, instead of going through your filter again.

On February 16 2015 13:31 jarjarbinks wrote:
On February 16 2015 07:58 rsoultin wrote:
On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote:
Trfel:
It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it.


Didn't you say that you'd just made this method up?
And again, you're focusing on the model and not what I'm asking you for.

@Trfel - I am not in favor of Bridges. Clearly. Even if Hier would be the next "auto-lynch" and I'd laugh my ass off if he flips scum, caught in his own mechanism


Hier, I know a lot of people have been asking you questions. Can you answer this one? Should be easy enough?

I've already answered this, and my answer isn't changing. Yes, as the game began.

As of right now I do not think Trfel or jarjarbinks are scum, and thus have no intention of voting for them.


I don't know if this is just because you're new, but me bringing up your case on me and giving you the opportunity to justify it...how does that come from a scum perspective? As you said, no one seems to really be buying your case, so why would I need to further establish my innocence?


For the record, I'd still like this answered, Hier. From a more veteran player I'd be calling to lynch you with fire for most of your posts xP but I recognize that this is a newbie game and you might actually believe what you're saying.

I just don't know how far my lexicon can take me reiterating my own accusations, and I don't really see the point when you'll just rebuke it my saying I misinterpreted your quotes, thus creating a nucleus for a completely unnecessary discussion.

But if you really really really want I'll do so in the morning. It's getting late here too, and tomorrow is a holiday here, so I'll have time.

I appreciate frustration here, but it still seems like pulling teeth to get reads and the why from you. As nothing has been put up to change my mind and it's still a fight with getting your reads and such? Nothing personal but my vote is on you.
##Vote: Hier


The tone changed. Granted it's a post to justify a vote, and I see 2 other posts with that tone, the first one where she starts questioning Hier and puts a nullread onto zlefin.
I'm linking the other one :
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=33#649

Comes back after EOD, then later to catch up on thread.

Next post is relevant, she voices doubts on Tere, but not convinced she is a good lynch.
She did the same thing with zlefin day 1
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=31#611

Next, suspicion on The Shining, but not willing to push.
Wants more from ElyAs, that is understandable.

Gonna ignore the delay on her "more to come"

Something that looks like a mild townread on JJB
Her two shots : zlefin and Tere, expresses suspicion on Tere for her take on the Hier case.

Expresses doubt on the point system, more precisely on the lack of detail and reasoning.
Asks for clarification on an earlier post.

Later, wants to know Tere's last will and asks more precisions on zlefin.

On February 18 2015 04:02 Silverarte wrote:
Woo! Back! How's it going so far?

Also, so far, what is everyone's top? Rather than two bullets, how about one?

I don't understand why she would dodge that question... She already responded to it once and nothing in her filter makes me think she changed her mind about zlefin.
Right after that, no more posts, even to comment on the NK.

For now I see her filter is about suspicion on zlefin and Tere, and generally trying to be amiable to Trfel and rsoultin.
It could be mildly pushing easy lynch targets while being careful of townleaders.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 18 2015 17:27 GMT
#834
It really took an hour to write this ? Holy hell. I don't want to leave this post alone but I won't have the time to do another one of these right now. I'll be back for 11PM CET for follow-up.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 18 2015 17:34 GMT
#835
Actually, I want to be clear on one point. It's not to be taken as a case for now, just voicing my thoughts aloud.

I want to share my conclusions once I am finished with this exercise.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 18 2015 22:06 GMT
#868
Back for some more time in here.

I want to react to this post :
On February 19 2015 06:47 Tere wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2015 04:15 Trfel wrote:
On February 19 2015 02:25 ElyAs wrote:
For now I see her filter is about suspicion on zlefin and Tere, and generally trying to be amiable to Trfel and rsoultin.
It could be mildly pushing easy lynch targets while being careful of townleaders.
I've been more seriously considering the possibility of Silverarte being scum as well. You beat me to it.

But please, Tere is not, never has been, and probably never will be an easy lynch target. High post count players are rarely easy lynch targets, even if they aren't as sensible and persuasive as Tere is.


Point 1)Dude, as of start of day I was the sole common denominator on everyone's scum lists. That's like the definition of lynchable right there.

Point 2)Right now I think scum are not posting, and are trying to work out what to do now their easy lynches of zlef and myself aren't looking so lynchable. That's why I want to pull back.

I love giving people rope to hang themselves



1) Yup, I was trying Tere's case from Silverarte's PoV. At that point, Tere was far from universally townread and I should check if at the time of Silver's post, Tere had a long filter already.

2) I wanted to say that ! I think they wanted us to destroy ourselves and were sitting back. If that's the case, now that their plan has backfired it could be very interesting.

Now I'm gonna follow up with the same exercise I did on Silverarte with The Shining.
ElyAs
Profile Joined December 2009
France205 Posts
February 18 2015 22:58 GMT
#885
Wow. that's a lot of frustration. I've got a headache trying to figure out if you're doing this because you're scum and have nothing to lose or if you're town and frustrated to the bone.

Right now you're just promoting chaos and I don't like that.
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