[M][N]Hammertime Mafia - Page 11

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Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 13:40 GMT

#1145

Damn quote boxes. Let's try again.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 13:40 GMT

#1146

VE, by itself it might be weak but there are a few more things.

The other problem I'm having is he's not particularly pushing anyon aside from listing scumreads. At least not that I can recall.

Also I knew there was another suspicious exchange...here it is.

On January 27 2015 19:43 Palmar wrote:

Show nested quote +

So what?

I feel like it's a mafia thing to do. Unlike all the baddies who cling to meta, I don't care if it's been done before or if he has done it before. I think it's a scummy way to frame your posting this current game.

On January 27 2015 19:56 Toadesstern wrote:
besides... I don't think I should talk about this stuff. I think I made my point clear: I'd prefer one of the other 2 for today. If GB happens to be the lynch I'm fine with lynching him too

I don't like these quotes. Because to me, they sound like a scum who doesn't want to be held accountable for something he said if he were to backtrack, etc.

What do you think?

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 13:43 GMT

#1147

On January 28 2015 22:31 Palmar wrote:
And policy and scumreads aren't mutually exclusive. If you break a policy and I want to policy kill you, that doesn't change how I feel about the guy from an analytical standpoint.

Fair enough. It wasn't clear. The way you were posting struck me if it was straight up policy.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 13:51 GMT

#1148

Also VE, the final (I think) piece of evidence against Toad was the manner in which he voted GB to bring him to four votes. If I recall right, Palmar was already on GB as #3 (after GB retracted) and Toad threw on for #4.

Then Palmar unvoted. VE you had voted him as #4 then.

On January 28 2015 01:53 Toadesstern wrote:
whatever... Palmar apparently went crazy and a bunch of people too. Lynch down the list:
Ongegu
Lian
GB
and we win.

##vote GlowingBear

So Onegu was his top per his list and sensing an opportunity he votes GB. That was another problem pointed out.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 13:53 GMT

#1149

I think on aggregate, the evidence IS there for Toad. So I think we just need consensus on Toad and Lian.

GB, your final thoughts on these two? I agree we shouldn't lynch Robik...but I'd still pick Lian over Robik anytime.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 15:10 GMT

#1153

On January 28 2015 23:40 VisceraEyes wrote:
So you think he's with Lian then?

By association. :/

HTS I'd like YOU to look at Onegu's filter, paying special attention to the progression of his read on liancourt.

I have explored the idea already by looking at their interactions. As I said before I don't like associative reads until they have flipped.

My justification is that a lot of people here are looking at least either one of Lian or Toad, if not both. So I am questioning in advance (given the silent night phase) whether that makes sense. Eden has also said he's throwing it around.

Will take a look on Onegu's filter though.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 15:25 GMT

#1156

On January 29 2015 00:13 IAmRobik wrote:

Show nested quote +

Who cares? You're driving away discussion from GB who is my top scum. Beyond him being my top scum, there are many associative reads that I have based off a GB flip that I don't want to elaborate one pre-flip and it's pissing me off. The game becomes exponentially easier to solve with knowledge of GB's alignment.

Robik, your last posts indicate to me you had not caught up on the thread (when I was asleep).

Have you even looked at GB's latest exchange with Palmar? Do you have any thoughts or conclusions on it? Specifically where he talks about the voting sequence on him and his plays?

Does that give to you a town or scum impression?

If you're town, you'd be further substantiating your push using his latest information or you would be moving on to another scumread.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 15:32 GMT

#1159

Palmar, are you back in troll mode again?

Do you have a second scumread? (unless I missed it)

There are two scum in this game, you know.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 15:33 GMT

#1160

I'm not objecting to you voting Toad btw.

I just don't think you're being productive spamming "kill Toad".

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 15:54 GMT

#1169

VE, since you requested, here.

Looking at Onegu's case on Lian, point by point:

On January 28 2015 00:27 Onegu wrote:
Ok let's look at everything liancourt has done in this game and see how it can come from a town point of view.

Show nested quote +

His first relevant post he was getting pressure from his quick vote which the vote was a null tell. But his explanation is really omgus. He went and explains you say you can't be read so I'm scared of you therefore my vote. His only reason is to be scared he won't be able to read toad. Why does he feel the need to justify his quick vote with something, but also preface it with it was a joke post.

He then follows this post up saying he is ready to policy lynch wtf?! But after saying that keeps his vote on toad saying he needs to see more, yet at the time toad had followed up with multiple posts with coherent thoughts and didn't look scummy at all.

Okay. I can see from a town perspective why Onegu is questioning this. From my own experience I have seen people say their votes on people are semi-joking, and they can be if their thought process is reasonable. Onegu is questioning a possible contradiction in reasoning here - I personally don't agree with it - but this point is not a reason to scumread Onegu.

I think he's using enough critical thinking here...so far.

On January 28 2015 00:27 Onegu wrote:
After this he gets pressure to unvote, but how does he respond.

Show nested quote +

Followed up by.

Show nested quote +

On January 26 2015 09:46 liancourt wrote:

On January 26 2015 09:31 Toadesstern wrote:

On January 26 2015 09:06 liancourt wrote:
gb was joking and i too was joking

but since it's first day I'll tell you this.

toad claims no one can read him. From my experience a player that cannot be read by other players don't play very townie. They mostly joke around and troll but through many many games they do this so even vets know that even if they don't do anything townie like giving reads or pointing fingers the other players will just let him be. One prime example of this case is Alakaslam. Many of you playing will hopefully know how he plays. I pride myself on reading him correctly despite him using chupazi and hijole. It's because I've seen many of his games and know his slight meta change in different allignments.

However, I have no idea how this guy, Toad, plays when he is town or mafia, and he goes far as to say he is unreadable. Well that really scares me as a player. To me it's like he was saying, "Guys I'm not going to do anything townie so that's that, but read me as town."

I'm usually read as obviously townie by most people in the game, no matter if I'm town, mafia or 3rd party.

I took like 3 mafia hits and an SK hit when I rolled 3rd party ninja/assassin in one of Palmars (?) games during night1 + night2. (LOL bulletproof)
My most recent Mafia game was the shadow-vet game I replaced into for HF (iirc?) with Sandroba being lynched d1 and ending up one of the most townish guy for everyone except for the guy I got lynched on whatever cycle wer were on. We ended up winning that in a landslide despite Marv asking me to replace into an "already lost game"
My most recent game as Town was the one that had 15 people divided into 5 cells of 3 where especially HF made it his best effort to put my cell first because it was the easiest one with a lot of people, including him and Marv, agreeing that I'm town.

That's the reason I said I liked qtpi's answer to my first question in the thread. If she doesn't know me it makes perfect sense, it just doesn't apply to me but no way for her to know that.

You're saying you get townread whatever allignment you roll. is this the same as being unreadable? If you do townie things whichever allignment I wouldn't call that being unreadable. I'd call that being a good mafia player. I guess it depends on whether I agree with your reads or not. Even if your townie, if I don't agree with the reasoning you're prolly scum. Right now you haven't really done anything as of yet so it's prolly null

Now really read this post, he gives himself a out, he follows with oh your just a good mafia player. But if I don't agree with you reason you are scum. He sets up an out in this post to be able to easily vote toad at any time later in the game by saying yup you look townie but I don't agree with you reasoning so I vote you. Then if toad flips town he doesn't look bad. There is no reason why town make themselves outs. Comeon man.

I feel Onegu's second part here is a lot more solid. When I read this again, the "if I don't agree with the reasoning you're prolly scum" is definitely a massive red flag since it's very possible that two townies can see things differently and Lian's discounting of that in of itself IS a massive problem. It is completely reasonable for Onegu to make this conclusion from this segment. It may not be accurate - we obviously don't know that yet - but it's definitely reasonable.

On January 28 2015 00:27 Onegu wrote:
After this he starts only focusing on Eden. Making little jabs at him and setting up his unvote.

Show nested quote +

On January 27 2015 11:13 liancourt wrote:

On January 26 2015 13:04 Eden1892 wrote:
Coming-down-Magic was fun but not for why you'd think it would be.

Anyway I am back and I ?hope? of sound mind and judgment.

I feel like my liancourt read was still pretty coherent. Maybe not in execu-- no, definitely not in execution, but at least in the logic. Let me try to explain it with a little more clarity of mind.

My play style was different from both games he's seen from me, and I was mafia in one and town in the other. At the very least he's obscuring the truth by citing Imperial as the inspiration for his read without making any mention of the fact that my play is different from the time he saw me play mafiasided. I feel like a townie would make mention of this and try to give the other player a fair shake instead of simply going "different from this town game therefore mafia!" while ignoring the equally-important "different from this mafia game therefore ???"

I also kinda felt like it was a cheap shot trying this kind of obscurantist read while I wasn't quite at full mental capacity, but to be fair it's not his fault that I decided to try new alcohol right before he gave his reads. Idk maybe it's unfair to hold that to him, but I felt like it was more sinister than a misunderstanding or error.

I'm gonna go reread but off the top of my head, I have the impression that Toad was town for a particular sequence of decisions: (1) intro post kickstarting discussion into (2) repeated attempts to question/probe other players for their positions while (3) demanding more scrutiny onto himself from other players. Mafia can emulate (1) just fine and regularly do (which is why I just called him a chill dude instead of something alignment-indicative), mafia have a harder time with (2) and especially with (3) - (2) because they struggle to get into a townie mindset and ask questions that make sense / are going somewhere (although it's not a huge struggle, it still requires effort, which is a harder threshold to achieve than you'd think), and (3) because they don't know whether or not they're actually being suspicious/not doing enough to be townread, and so daring people not to townread them so hard/so quickly can come off as tone-deaf with regard to how much a townie should suspect someone and backfire badly. (Imagine the sequence: "Why don't you suspect me?" "Why should I?" "...shouldn't you?" It would clearly indicate a guilty conscience on the part of the first speaker, which wouldn't automatically exist with a townie. Naturally it would never be that obvious, but you get the idea behind it.)

None of this is to say that he strictly speaking couldn't do any of what he's done as mafia, but that I think it would be far more likely for him to do it as town. So he's town.

I also feel like GlowingBear was townie but I don't remember why. Maybe I'll know when I reread.

Robik is suspicious to me because I feel like he's not really been very genuine with his posts. I'll reread to see if I'm right about this, but I remember his post about why he voted for HTS, and his post against GB, and both of them seemed illegit. The HTS thing was probably a joke so eh, but he says "get rekt mafia scum" or whatever when arguing for a kill on GB and it's just like... no one says this. Not even Robik says this. C'mon man.

I forgot Onegu even posted so we could kill him too. Palmar as well until he posts

The part where you HARD defend toad kinda looks familiar to a certain game I played with you...

On January 14 2015 07:51 Eden1892 wrote:

On January 14 2015 07:47 DrParnassus wrote:
sicklucker please explain the loli thing to me before I have to go

I'll do it instead since SL apparently isn't in an explaining mood.

If lalalipop is mafia then the d2 wagons were mafia/mafia. Oatsmaster only went on a late tiebreaker -- Breshke switching off of lalalipop onto a 3rd party. If Breshke and lalalipop are partners, Breshke probably isn't on lalalipop in the first place and he's definitely not switching to a 3rd party and hoping for no vote switches; he's moving onto Oatsmaster to ensure his teammate gets saved or, alternatively, he's not moving to get that bus cred.

So Breshke's vote move makes no sense if lalalipop is mafia, ergo lalalipop is town

HARD defending your partner lala.

There is literally no reason for town to HARD defend another town this detailed. Not sure if toad is his partner yet, but I'll keep my eyes open. Town should be scum hunting not hard defending other players. Everyone who has ever played mafia knows it's less stressful to call someone town than to call someone mafia. And eden here is doing the same thing calling me scum because I caught him and he is OMGUSing me like he did in new years.

He gets called out for ignoring/misrepresenting edens meta, and his response is to respond something that is a null tell. It's like he is just trying to find something anything to respond to.

And then he's like policy lynch again lol.

Show nested quote +

On January 27 2015 12:35 liancourt wrote:

On January 27 2015 02:37 IAmRobik wrote:

On January 27 2015 02:30 Eden1892 wrote:

On January 27 2015 02:21 Palmar wrote:

On January 27 2015 02:20 Eden1892 wrote:
Palmar, last game we played together you were town and got really pissed off that I killed off one of your townreads.

What are you doing this game to stop this from happening again, bearing in mind that (a) it's easier to do that in a smaller game and (b) a mislynch hurts more in a smaller game?

Other updates: Half the Sky is clearly town. I feel that Robik and VisceraEyes are probably town for tilting, but I have no mafia priors on VE and one from close to a year ago on Robik, so it's difficult for me to falsify either feeling.

Also anyone whining about drunk posts but not reading and commenting on the big post with reads that came after it is a donkey and should be ashamed.

Why do you think that if another me got mad, that present me would also get mad?

This confuses me.

Sure let's unpack assumptions.

I am assuming you are playing to win.

You stated in a game in the recent past that you believe your d1 reads to be pretty good, particularly d1 town reads.
Presuming you still believe this, and presuming you are town, it is curious to me that you are doing very little in the way of giving reads at the moment, because that runs the risk of one of your town reads getting killed. Even if you don't have town reads, you presumably will eventually get them because you want to win, and once you get them you presumably would want to make sure they don't die because you want to win.

You are not doing this, so one of the assumptions above is wrong. Which is it?
- You are playing to win
- You believe your d1 reads to be pretty good, particularly d1 town reads
- You are town

WTF are you doing? You literally just said you think Palmar is town and now you're grilling him. Palmar will play the game when he wants to play the game and if he doesn't want to play the game then he'll sub or we'll lynch him

I agree with this part "palmar will play when he wants to play"

If he is indeed town he will give reads, good reads infact from the things i've seen in imperial. He was very right in that game, but got lynched anyway. But really this game he has been really...meh from the get go. His d1 in imperial was very decent and good and you could get town vibes off of him. This game...meh he just isn't interested in playing the game. Am I willing to wait for palmar to be interested in this game so he can actually figure out the game? i don't know, what he's the same on d2, we get nothing. From the teachings of koshi

On January 22 2015 05:52 Koshi wrote:

On January 22 2015 05:31 Wile E. Coyote wrote:

On January 22 2015 03:06 Koshi wrote:
Nha, Kels has a good point. You should have looked it up. This was lazy from you.
I would lynch you over it as well on a blue Sunday. Or how does that saying go?
Anyway. It's lazy play. Could be town lazy though. But you got to educate the lazy townies.

On January 21 2015 08:53 liancourt wrote:

On January 21 2015 08:46 Half the Sky wrote:
Also Lian, you threw out a townread on Vivax early on. What do you make of him now, after all he's posted?

Trying way too hard too early

town

The only post in lian his filter that makes me hesitate lynching him. But tbh. Why not get rid of him? We are going to lynch him somewhere on the way. This liancourt needs more education than HTS. And we educate through lynching.

When did you become a firm believer in policy lynches?

I now lynch people I know will be though to read later over people that will be readable. Because I don't lynch enough scum D1.

There is no guarantee of palmar suddenly starting to play the game and he will prolly remain unreadable like this so I like a policy lynch on him, but I'd prefer eden because I have a scum read on him.

Lynchpool: eden > palmar.

And the waffle in this post. He defends palmar but then policy lynch, but rather Eden for reasons that are null and misconstrued.

Show nested quote +

Then the post that was uber scummy, I just don't get why he is like soft defending palmar at this point. Palmar had done jack shit but troll in the first 24-36 hours and there is no reason to defend him at this point.

He then goes on to the post that says he is confirmation biased. There just is no point it really is like he is just trying to look busy, and I really don't see any point to this post but to enflame Eden. It honestly says nothing game relevant.

The rest is him not understanding me, but now please address my points on you liancourt.

This second part in Onegu's case is a bit weak but again, do I scumread him for it? I don't think so. Not in of itself. I don't know where the third quote is coming from since Lian's not exactly defending Palmar in that sequence.

His use of the second and third quotes.....probably wasn't necessary, it actually slowed me down a bit trying to evaluate this post tbh, but he is reaching conclusions here.

Ways I can see this being scumlike, if I can get the impression he's being intentionally misleading. His first part is stronger than his second part, but I don't get any impression he's taking Liancourt out of context.

I think Onegu looked poor early game, but he has been pushing Lian. I'm not inclined to scumread him.

Are you seeing something I am not?

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 15:58 GMT

#1170

On January 29 2015 00:50 Palmar wrote:
like that's literally the solution to this game.

Everyone is town, robik is 3rd party insultbot and toad is double mafia. 7 town 2 mafia and 1 hidden role

You're not being helpful right now...

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 16:13 GMT

#1181

That's 3 votes on Toad and 3 votes on Lian right now FYI.

Robik I'm not ignoring you btw. Multitasking between here and work, though I'm leaving the office soon again. And upcoming co-hosting duties as well.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 16:17 GMT

#1182

On January 29 2015 00:39 GlowingBear wrote:
Please vote Robik.

HTS, final thoughts are: they are at least trying. Robik isn't.

Why Robik over Toad and Lian?

Most sentiment is on one or both these two. We are approx 10h from EoD. Town sentiment should be to consolidate.
Do you have reasons NOT to scumread these two that I missed?

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 16:38 GMT

#1196

Lian - 4 Toad - 3

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 16:51 GMT

#1209

On January 29 2015 01:23 IAmRobik wrote:
HTS,

Once you're done doing whatever it is that you're doing, please explain why I'm mafia for only having a scumread on GB and no one else but Palmar is town for having a scumread on toad and no one else.

This is not to say I think Palmar is scum. This is to say that your logic is flawed and maybe I need to be more concerned about where your allegiances lie this game

Palmar presented a case (and has since been further supported by other subsequent points, like the vote, lack of pushes, etc) on Toad.

Maybe it's your style I don't know. I triple checked your filter, and I see posts like what you have on page 1-2 of your filter:

On January 26 2015 22:54 IAmRobik wrote:

Show nested quote +

He's voting me because he's mafia

You don't appear to be explaining why he's mafia. I made a case based on stuff GB said, but I am trying to see your reasoning for voting him. How do I know you aren't potential scum trying to take advantage of a town-driven case? I have to question that.

On January 27 2015 01:59 IAmRobik wrote:
Dude look at fantasy football mafia 2 and to mafia lxviii. And compare GB's posts in those games he's town.

you're fuckign wrong. Look at the formatting of his posts. It's all disjointed, like a bunch of separate sentences even though they're about the same thing.[/QUOTE]

I mean I think you need stronger points than this.

On January 27 2015 02:14 IAmRobik wrote:
GB: I metaread Robik as mafia because he isn't posting.

Robik starts posting

GB: Robik is scum because: meta

Why isn't this day over yet with mafia!GB lynched?

I see this quote and my first reaction is to say....uh, counterargument, please?

Then I see stuff from you like "free town reads" for people voting GB.

I feel the difference between Palmar and you is that at least Palmar has shown at least a shred of critical thinking. He has explained his pushes and his justifications for doing things.

I don't think you have. Not yet. Some general points about being AFK, etc, but I mean, I've been doing that a lot too, and so have some others.

Am I making sense now?

And to be fair, I am keeping an eye on GB, given my latest post. I still didn't like his notes, and he's definitely not as towny to me as say Eden.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 16:52 GMT

#1212

On January 29 2015 01:41 IAmRobik wrote:
You have enough time to follow vote counts and make posts like that, but you don't have time to reply to something that's actually important and meaningful and pertinent to finding mafia?

Multiple tabs, Robik, and yes, now I have just finished my long post in response to you.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 16:57 GMT

#1220

On January 29 2015 01:53 IAmRobik wrote:
Stupidity is a poor excuse for not understanding the logic I laid out. It's REALLY fucking simple.

I may be the least experienced player in this game's lineup, but I am trying. And I'm looking at GB from multiple angles.
I want to hear his responses on why he's tunnelling you this late in the day....looks like we have less time to EoD than expected.

GB isn't pulling a DoctorHelvetica where he has 15 pages on his target D1 (reference Imperial), so....I'd like to know what is going on there.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 17:18 GMT

#1228

Liancourt:

On January 29 2015 01:45 liancourt wrote:
Before I sleep a few of my thoughts.

1. Onegu not hammering GB when he had 4 votes.

This does not make him confirmed town. The argument that mafia "would have" hammered gb under the assumption that gb is town is invalid because mafia could have just as well not hammered to make themselves townie. Thus the argument is very much wifom. There are several premises for this argument.

GB is town. (assumption) The basis for this argument/hypothesis
Mafia hammers on town. (assumption) The general logic held by the players that mafia would definitely hammer town when given the chance.
Onegu did not hammer on GB. (fact)
ergo
Onegu is town. (assumption) conclusion

The conclusion is a fallacy because it's based on 2 assumptions. 2 dangerous assumptions.

I have a criticism here. You are paying attention to the fact THAT Onegu did not vote GB and NOT WHY Onegu didn't vote GB. He made a point (the martyr incident) as to why he didn't and why he thought GB was doing the same thing.

On January 29 2015 01:45 liancourt wrote:
2. GB self voting making him town

This also does not make him confirmed town. Mafia can just as well self vote. Self voting is not a town trait. The argument is wifom since both allignments can do it.

The premise that:

Self voting is town. (assumption/hypo)
GB self voted. (fact/truth)
ergo
GB is town (assumption)

The conclusion here is also a fallacy because the premise is an assumption.

Socrates is a man. (fact)
Men are mortal. (fact)
ergo
Socrates is mortal. (fact)

For something to be confirmed the premises all need to be facts, but every argument has been based on "assumptions" of mafia would do this and that. I will not let town have confirmed townies based on assumption and an argument that is a fallacy. I've seen it in carol and I've seen it on nye. Both times were on vote analysis and they were all absolutely wrong. In carol it was the 2 wagons on d2. Town assumed that the 2 wagons couldn't possibly be 2 mafia which they were. In nye scum changed his vote off of a townie to vote an outlier when the 2 wagons were town & scum. The votes were close iirc it was a 1 vote difference and scum instead of insuring the town ml took off his vote and voted for an outlier...The conclusion that followed was that the other wagon was not mafia because scum would have kept his vote on the townie. Well it was wrong totally. Other wagon was scum. These were all because of town's ASSUMPTIONS. Don't make assumptions. Make reads based on content please. Making assumption is the sure fire way of losing this game.

GB and Onegu are not confirmed town.

Town needs to read GB and Onegu w/o factoring in the self vote incident and how onegu didn't hammer. Examine them by content please. Don't make the mistake again I beg you. I have them as my scum, so please read into them. Also toad hasn't done anything distinctive and seems content doing nothing.

I will like to lynch into these 3 ppl.

Onegu >gb > toad

I will hopefully wake up before deadline unless someone else gets hammered first. Imma sleep now. See you tomorrow early and i can interact live with the thread.

We examined Onegu by content. So why aren't you?

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 17:19 GMT

#1229

Lian, I realise you are posting in the middle of the night, but again, I am trying to illustrate, as you have, time and again, lacked critical thinking with respect to most of the material in this game.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

January 28 2015 17:22 GMT

#1232

On January 29 2015 02:20 Eden1892 wrote:
Palmar stop. You're pushing all my fuck you alarms

Palmar is really starting to piss me off as well.
I don't like voting people out of spite, because I'm more interested in actually playing this game, but he is really beginning to piss me off.

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