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On January 20 2015 14:44 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2015 14:37 Breshke wrote:
@ Jarjar who is your top 3 lynches other than trefel. I'll rank them. 1. LM- The lurky mafia of the group. Was scumming me after I felt mafia knew I was blue. A lot of people had talked about them. I voted for LM before forced to leave and I'll stick to it for now. The Trfel vote on LM worries me, but I could see him doing that to throw people like me off. 2. Breshke- GB was suspicious of you, I'm suspicious of you. You were on me after I felt mafia knew I was tracker. 3. Geript- I could see Geript pulling off killing Waffle as mafia and thinking he could get away with it. Plus GB didn't like him. 4. DP- This is more based on what other people have said about DP being the #3 if LM and Trfel are Scum.
Who did you track? I know you got RBd, but who were you going to track?
^That mirrors my PoE, too, though I don't see why geript would move a train off a town onto another town. Can you explain why you think he could still be scum? To me that seems too risky unless he's super confident he'll get townread for it even though he was saying he didn't like WW as the lynch earlier.
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On January 20 2015 14:45 rsoultin wrote:
Hrum...so, all things remaining equal and assuming the dead townie N2 is universally townread already...likely...
Where are you standing? I know this is preemptive, but if I were scum and Trfel had a red check, I wouldn't fight this lynch. Personally. So I'm not expecting much new knowledge to come from Day 2.
Your paragraph was pretty convoluted and I'm not sure I fully understand it.
EBWOP:
This was @geript
Sorry, JarJar. Yes, convoluted means confusing. I couldn't follow his train of thought well.
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On January 20 2015 14:51 geript wrote:
On the face LM looks the worst to me, but I need to actually read and think. Like, supportive shit from Trfel's filter assuming mafia is nice, but we should easily be able to find arguments that stand on their own.
Yeah, a reread is in order. I'm seeing LM at the top of everyone's lynch list, though I guess we haven't all posted yet. Still, makes me wonder if maybe I'm missing something again. Nite geript.
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On January 20 2015 15:27 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2015 14:49 rsoultin wrote:On January 20 2015 14:44 jarjarbinks wrote:On January 20 2015 14:37 Breshke wrote:
@ Jarjar who is your top 3 lynches other than trefel. I'll rank them. 1. LM- The lurky mafia of the group. Was scumming me after I felt mafia knew I was blue. A lot of people had talked about them. I voted for LM before forced to leave and I'll stick to it for now. The Trfel vote on LM worries me, but I could see him doing that to throw people like me off. 2. Breshke- GB was suspicious of you, I'm suspicious of you. You were on me after I felt mafia knew I was tracker. 3. Geript- I could see Geript pulling off killing Waffle as mafia and thinking he could get away with it. Plus GB didn't like him. 4. DP- This is more based on what other people have said about DP being the #3 if LM and Trfel are Scum. Who did you track? I know you got RBd, but who were you going to track? ^That mirrors my PoE, too, though I don't see why geript would move a train off a town onto another town. Can you explain why you think he could still be scum? To me that seems too risky unless he's super confident he'll get townread for it even though he was saying he didn't like WW as the lynch earlier. Ugh sorry sis. Laptop issues xD keyboard need to come in soon xD I tracked Breske, first thought about LM but seeing how the thread was going I figured Breshke would be a better choice. I was looking for the suspicious quiet types. Only reasons I could see why Geript would make the vote go to Waffle: 1. Waffle was getting towned by most despite limited posts. Could be a hard sell to lynch (although I guess not due to geripts influence) 2. Bragging rights. Got us all to vote him based on "not the best" logic. 3. He started the GB train. GB was on to him. Could look bad. I feel like this isn't the vet play though. 4. Shifts the lynch on to me without voting for me. Causes me to either die or claim blue. If he was mafia he would probably know I was blue by that point. I'd have to admit I didn't do the best job of hiding it. If I was cop, they might have tried to kill me N1 instead of someone else. They would know for sure if I claimed.5. He looks a little bad, but do you notice how many people think he's still town? He probably wouldn't see it as that much of a risk. Obviously these are all hypotheticals. I don't know if he is town or mafia. But its not like he had 0 reasons to switch right?
...This one. The others don't make sense...but 4 is worth investigating. I think they could RB you regardless, cop or tracker, but this one...
I have to remember this when I'm going back through the votes. GB, right, was the train? You were the other. He tried to get people off of GB onto WW. It's untraceable to him if he doesn't get enough people to actually lynch WW and therefore lynches you by default, and he probably wouldn't have gotten enough if you didn't claim. And he didn't want to lynch WW before, on top of that.
It verifies you as blue if they're suspecting that you are, or gets you lynched. Damn, bro. There is a possible scum motive for that wagon switch after all.
...okay. Gonna have to think on this one ><. The town to town switch was my main reason for townreading him with some of the other things he's done. Tomorrow I'll look at it more in depth to see if it actually jives with the EoD voting.
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On January 21 2015 08:18 jarjarbinks wrote:
@Rsoultin
I looked at the votes. Definitely doesn't conclusively show that Geript switched to screw me.
Right before he switched I had 4 and GB had 6. His switch made it GB-5 me-4. LS switched to me about 10 seconds later. THEN others followed. I mean it is possible that he did switch to screw me, but he would have had to figure people would get off the GB train if he switched and/or saw that the GB train was losing traction.
Damdred was hard bussing me. It is possible he saw it coming, but he was definitely not the only factor in putting me on the chopblock.
And thanks again for defending me at EOD! You get some more bro brownie points lolz
I still haven't had a chance to look closely. Just got home from work. But I will say that it is a bit of an out there sort of play unless scum was all nicely settled on GB.
It's a cool theory though lol. I kinda like the outlandish ones just to have a different viewpoint to approach things from. I'll still look but it seems like there would be too many unknowns to pull it off effectively.
Geript is questioning you about bussing because bussing means mafia pushing or voting their own mafia teammate. Assuming you're town, it's okay lol. I did it my first game, too, calling it bussing when it was just a push.
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On January 21 2015 08:53 geript wrote:
I will say that Damdred's filter looks exceptionally worse in skimming it. Shining is town; then mafia then town then mafia. LS is in the same boat. Las is mafia for trying to get a meta read on Damdred. Then it's the reason he's obviously town. I really don't get it.
The LS thing bugged me cause Damdred has played with LS. The trfel thing bugged me cause Damdred has played with trfel. These two players he should know well enough to have an idea of what is normal and what isn't, probably moreso than I do. The GB thing bugged me because GB was townread, townread, townread then considered as a possible lynch.
There's another thing bugging me, too. WIFOM, so don't jump down my throat for it, but considering who was townread for the EoD antics, you and Damdred benefitted the most from a flipped GB confirmed town.
When you take into account that (assuming no false claims, which I am at this point) and if you take it on faith I'm town (something considerably more easy for me to do than the rest of y'all xP) Damdred literally had no scum on his wagon at all. If scum, that would make it perfectly safe for him not to hammer GB to save himself and get townread in the process.
Trfel was still on LM...and possibly he third scum could have been waiting in the wings...LM or Shining. I know no one has flipped yet, but I don't think it's accurate to say Damdred is confirmed town after all.
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On January 21 2015 09:25 geript wrote:
You really have to take the wifom out. GB flipping town doesn't give credibility to anyone. It doesn't really lessen credibility either. It's a NK. Like we're the people pushing him pushing him for good reasons? Does GB have any valuable reads we've missed out on now knowing he's town. That's what matters.
Regarding the Damdred wagon, that's a quite interesting point. Just like mafia tend to not lynch claimed blues or in the least tend to move off their wagon. Mafia tend to not help lynch vets. So if Damdred is town it makes sense for him. Like if you assume for a second that DP and I am town. That same vote count makes GB look awfully scummy.
I need to reread you both, but I think my first instinct on you was right, and you're probably town based on EoD. Paranoia is normal for me -_- that and an argumentative soul lol.
So you're saying that mafia wouldn't be on Damdred if he is town? If DP and you are town...how does that make GB look scummy? o.0 I think I'm missing your point, lol. I thought the only "vets" in this game were you and DP. Everyone's a vet compared to me but y'all have a different line.
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Unless your point geript is that mafia does tend to pick on the fumbling newbies in this game as the easy mislynches xP Which I would have to agree with from personal experience, limited though that is.
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On January 21 2015 09:41 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 09:14 rsoultin wrote:On January 21 2015 08:53 geript wrote:
I will say that Damdred's filter looks exceptionally worse in skimming it. Shining is town; then mafia then town then mafia. LS is in the same boat. Las is mafia for trying to get a meta read on Damdred. Then it's the reason he's obviously town. I really don't get it. The LS thing bugged me cause Damdred has played with LS. The trfel thing bugged me cause Damdred has played with trfel. These two players he should know well enough to have an idea of what is normal and what isn't, probably moreso than I do. The GB thing bugged me because GB was townread, townread, townread then considered as a possible lynch. There's another thing bugging me, too. WIFOM, so don't jump down my throat for it, but considering who was townread for the EoD antics, you and Damdred benefitted the most from a flipped GB confirmed town. When you take into account that (assuming no false claims, which I am at this point) and if you take it on faith I'm town (something considerably more easy for me to do than the rest of y'all xP) Damdred literally had no scum on his wagon at all. If scum, that would make it perfectly safe for him not to hammer GB to save himself and get townread in the process. Trfel was still on LM...and possibly he third scum could have been waiting in the wings...LM or Shining. I know no one has flipped yet, but I don't think it's accurate to say Damdred is confirmed town after all. This is dumb the bolded especially. LS asked for a meta on me early in the game which caused me to doubt him and put him in mafia pile as evidenced in my filter if you looked. I put him down in the reaction test to see how people reacted and then I said that he was town and haven't moved from that since then. I've played like one decent game with trfel and I town read and then later in the game it became a scum read before they were checked not sure. That's just how me and GB are, gb goes damdred is town, scum, town, town town town. Just how we are when we play. I'm just going to ignore the stupid going on though its ok
LS always hyperfocuses on meta. -_- I find it hard to believe you've failed to notice that. Just like I find it hard to believe you missed Trfel's EXTREME play change.
It's not stupid. Just as it isn't stupid that you townread GB all through the game, then with apparently no explanation said maybe he could be a good lynch? How does that make sense? It certainly doesn't to me. Where did you first start thinking GB was boring, may I ask? Maybe I just missed that part when I went back into your filter before EoD.
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On January 21 2015 09:53 Trfel wrote:
Sorry, I thought that we were supposed to post at least once every phase, not once every 48 hours. I had a bunch of work to do, I finished some of it, I will be be back and post more tonight.
Sorry, I didn't realize that I would be so busy.
This lynch wagon is completely ridiculous. I can't believe that everyone is voting to lynch me. Just because I am trying to change my play and figure out how the game works? That doesn't make any sense at all. I care enough to try different things and see what works. Evidently this didn't work.
You guys are seriously believing the guy who claimed cop? First of all, he started the game completely nonsensical, and somehow got townread, and then changed his behavior completely. Why would town do anything different after they get townread? I can't decide if he is simply a town liar or if he is a mafia trying to get a townie lynched, but I'm inclined to think the latter. If you don't listen to me know, hopefully you will at least lynch him next after I flip. A one to one change with a mafia is a pretty good result for a townie.
I'll look into some other scum options, but this wagon on me is really giving a lot away. I'm pretty sure that the mafia team is leading it.
Lol xP Gotta give you props for the attempt truffle <3
I will say this, though. If LS is lying, you can rest easy in that you'll be avenged.
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On January 21 2015 09:50 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 09:48 rsoultin wrote:On January 21 2015 09:41 Damdred wrote:On January 21 2015 09:14 rsoultin wrote:On January 21 2015 08:53 geript wrote:
I will say that Damdred's filter looks exceptionally worse in skimming it. Shining is town; then mafia then town then mafia. LS is in the same boat. Las is mafia for trying to get a meta read on Damdred. Then it's the reason he's obviously town. I really don't get it. The LS thing bugged me cause Damdred has played with LS. The trfel thing bugged me cause Damdred has played with trfel. These two players he should know well enough to have an idea of what is normal and what isn't, probably moreso than I do. The GB thing bugged me because GB was townread, townread, townread then considered as a possible lynch. There's another thing bugging me, too. WIFOM, so don't jump down my throat for it, but considering who was townread for the EoD antics, you and Damdred benefitted the most from a flipped GB confirmed town. When you take into account that (assuming no false claims, which I am at this point) and if you take it on faith I'm town (something considerably more easy for me to do than the rest of y'all xP) Damdred literally had no scum on his wagon at all. If scum, that would make it perfectly safe for him not to hammer GB to save himself and get townread in the process. Trfel was still on LM...and possibly he third scum could have been waiting in the wings...LM or Shining. I know no one has flipped yet, but I don't think it's accurate to say Damdred is confirmed town after all. This is dumb the bolded especially. LS asked for a meta on me early in the game which caused me to doubt him and put him in mafia pile as evidenced in my filter if you looked. I put him down in the reaction test to see how people reacted and then I said that he was town and haven't moved from that since then. I've played like one decent game with trfel and I town read and then later in the game it became a scum read before they were checked not sure. That's just how me and GB are, gb goes damdred is town, scum, town, town town town. Just how we are when we play. I'm just going to ignore the stupid going on though its ok LS always hyperfocuses on meta. -_- I find it hard to believe you've failed to notice that. Just like I find it hard to believe you missed Trfel's EXTREME play change. It's not stupid. Just as it isn't stupid that you townread GB all through the game, then with apparently no explanation said maybe he could be a good lynch? How does that make sense? It certainly doesn't to me. Where did you first start thinking GB was boring, may I ask? Maybe I just missed that part when I went back into your filter before EoD. LS focusing on meta is good, LS ASKING someone else my meta isn't good. There is a distinct difference between the two. GB was boring before he pushed me, a boring GB is scum. When GB barely does anything hes boring, he didn't really do anything until he pushed me.
Hmmm I may be overreading the GB part, a skim didn't show me what I thought I read earlier o.0 which is weird. I could be wrong on that. Anyway, I think since we have this much time I'm gonna go solo on the analysis for a bit cause I get easily distracted in-thread.
If anyone has questions for me, I'll be around to answer, though.
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On January 21 2015 10:06 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 09:37 rsoultin wrote:
Unless your point geript is that mafia does tend to pick on the fumbling newbies in this game as the easy mislynches xP Which I would have to agree with from personal experience, limited though that is. No. My point is that what you're reading me town for makes me nothing. Like if I'm mafia I could be trying to get a blue lynched. Like that's such a god awful reason to read me as town. Like read me town for what I've done in the game that matters. Leading or not leading a vote on town/mafia isn't alignment indicative. Last minute shenannies or no do not make me or anyone else anything.
Your analysis was too good as a scum coach who already knew the scum team for me to say definitively that those two posts alone make you town, geript. But I will look closer at you, too. No worries. I'm usually better at identifying town than I am at identifying scum >< usually.
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You really think that's likely on Day 2, geript? I'd think it would be more likely in lylo.
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On January 21 2015 10:14 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 10:11 rsoultin wrote:
You really think that's likely on Day 2, geript? I'd think it would be more likely in lylo. No. Not really. But it's not bad play. Like if you can get town to waste two days discussion it's quite good play in fact. Doesn't really make sense from LS point in the game but not unreasonable.
Hm. Maybe. I'd expect something that bold with scum's back against the wall, though, rather than just sacrificing a scummate out of the blue. Was anyone really in so much danger that a Day 2 lynch would be inevitable?
Maybe it's just how I play scum, but I'd rather not lose members unless I have to. Makes it harder to win.
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On January 21 2015 10:22 Breshke wrote:
The only problem is if LS is fake and red checked a partner then we lynch trfel. A doc claims D3 and we only have 2 mislynches until we lose so we could theoretically lynch jarjar and the doc incorrectly. But that seems like a very thought out play and im not sure if mafia goes for it.
It's possible, I suppose. Ballsy but possible.
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On January 21 2015 13:40 DarthPunk wrote:
Even if by some miracle Trfel is town. Then we just lynch LS tomorrow.
I think it is correct to lynch trefle no matter what his defense is like.
Agreed. I'm not sure what this is from him, anyway. Trfel, if I were you and town I'd get out my case-making mojo, comb the thread and the filters, and give us something awesome to work with if you flip town. LS is a given with a green (or blue) flip.
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On January 21 2015 13:54 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 13:47 rsoultin wrote:On January 21 2015 13:40 DarthPunk wrote:
Even if by some miracle Trfel is town. Then we just lynch LS tomorrow.
I think it is correct to lynch trefle no matter what his defense is like.
Agreed. I'm not sure what this is from him, anyway. Trfel, if I were you and town I'd get out my case-making mojo, comb the thread and the filters, and give us something awesome to work with if you flip town. LS is a given with a green (or blue) flip. Why should I bother if you guys are just going to lynch me anyway? I have other things to do, you guys won't listen to my logic. The game is lost, I should give it up. If you guys don't lynch me maybe I will build some cases for you, since you seem to be too lazy to do it yourself. Rsoultin could very well be mafia as well.
Well there you go, finally pointing a finger at the player who has been saying this isn't your town game the entire game. Was wondering how long it would take.
What logic, exactly? You're saying we should believe you when you say LS is scum...that it's a logical move for town to ignore a claimed cop with a red check just because you say he's lying?
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rofl at this point I think he's just having fun with it
gg trfel ^^
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On January 21 2015 22:40 LoneMeow wrote:Breshke is scum. There's a clear avoidance of committing to any reads, and it's quite scummy how he wants to lynch me without considering other options. Show nested quote +On January 20 2015 08:53 Breshke wrote:
So GB flipping town makes damdred fairly townie for what was going on with the wagons between the two.
Also rsoultin is also fairly townie for how hard she was going against trfel especially at times when she seemed to be the only one doing it.
For me that leaves two mafia within the following players given no cc's occur and trfel actually flips mafia
5) DarthPunk (filter)
6) The Shining (filter)
8) LoneMeow (filter)
10) geript (filter)
So for auto i only need one more town read and that would probably be geript for a couple reasons the biggest one being that I don't really see the scum motivation to lead the wagon off of GB (a town) onto warwaffle (another town).
So for next day phase i want to lynch one of the three remaining players and if i was to choose it would probably be LM.
I realize i could easily be wrong on any of my town reads as some of it is fairly weak reasoning so that makes this type of analysis maybe not the best but for now it is the world im living in. Out of this list of 4 people, I can understand why he would not consider geript or DarthPunk at the time of this post, but he makes no explanation of why he picked me over The Shining. In fact, nowhere in his filter does he take any kind of stance on The Shining or analyze him.The only reason he gives for wanting to lynch me is where my vote ended up - he does not analyze why it ended up there, nor try to use the rest of my posting to validate his read in the slightest. There's also a certain lack of going anywhere with his posts, he's content to discuss whether LightningStrike might have fake claimed (as if) and ask questions that don't really go anywhere instead of posting his own analysis. Currently he's by far my best lynch after Trfel.
This is actually true...he asked Damdred and agreed with Damdred on something townie that Shining had done, but I'm pretty sure that was after this list. Otherwise I'm not seeing anything original about Shining's alignment at all o.0. Interesting point, LM.
The next question is if Shining is unique in Breshke's filter, or Breshke just isn't giving analysis on most of the players in this game. Got work, but I'll check back later.
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And the wicked old witch at last is dead! lol
Nice job, LS.
Seriously, though, I'm always happier to see players playing poorly flip scum. Would've been sad to lynch Trfel if he really was town trying to change his play-style.
Geript, Alan is lonemeow? <- The newbies will have no clue who you're talking about if you refer to people by name.
I'll be in-thread for questions or if anyone has any ideas they want to bounce around.
(Can already say that there are at least 4-5 posts of geript's that I'll need clarification on. Not sure why, geript, but sometimes I can't follow your train of thought when you post. Something to do with the writing style.)
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EPT
