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sicklucker
Canada16986 Posts
On January 10 2015 08:21 sicklucker wrote: Two or three scum in the first 4 votes on Va if im right about hts. We had 3 votes on hts and I think mafia paniced I think bats is too wild to be mafia | ||
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mderg
Germany1739 Posts
I could see 2 scum between lian, HTS and oats. Has oats even posted a single read so far? I basically can't remember anything he did this game. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
On January 10 2015 08:32 mderg wrote: I could see 2 scum between lian, HTS and oats. Has oats even posted a single read so far? I basically can't remember anything he did this game. He meta scum read VA and calling SL just bad and calling Lian town. That's all he done this game. | ||
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liancourt
1563 Posts
Same goes for obi put me and bats as scum now i dont know if he s even pushing that read or if it was just for show. He clearly isnt trying to figure out the game | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
yay bunnies is dead. Many <3<3<3 but you cant lynch me no more. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
Is my reasoning wrong? | ||
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sicklucker
Canada16986 Posts
On January 10 2015 11:51 liancourt wrote: We should turn our attention to how ls has no original thought or read but is borrowing sheeping others reads. Sure u can play by being a good sheeper but its wat mafia generally tend to do to look like they are scum hunting. There has been no direct attacks only soft claims as to who has done what not. Same goes for obi put me and bats as scum now i dont know if he s even pushing that read or if it was just for show. He clearly isnt trying to figure out the game This is ls's meta tho he rarely brings anything new to the table its not a reason to lynch him. At this point killing Ls is an rng lynch. If I had no scum I would lynch him day 1. | ||
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sicklucker
Canada16986 Posts
On January 10 2015 12:33 Oatsmaster wrote: I dont see how pushing a mislynch makes me scummier LS. Is my reasoning wrong? It makes you scummier if hts is scum agreed? | ||
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sicklucker
Canada16986 Posts
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
Dropped in to say my gg and seeyas. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
On January 10 2015 12:41 sicklucker wrote: It makes you scummier if hts is scum agreed? no? there was no proper case on HTS which is why it never got traction. | ||
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ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
Couple of thoughts: Eden is posting the absolute bare minimum to get by and really shouldn't be allowed to do so, especially when he's so hyperactive and headstrong as town. I'm not sure how I feel about batsnacks and lian atm. I'm sure personal preference might have colored my reads so I'm going to let those thoughts do their own thing for a little while. I might come back with more reads tonight but I probably won't. I'll be around intermittently until tomorrow night when I can sit down and do things. | ||
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ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
Disheartening. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 10 2015 14:58 ObiWanShinobi wrote: I'm off work but I've got stuff to do tomorrow. Couple of thoughts: Eden is posting the absolute bare minimum to get by and really shouldn't be allowed to do so, especially when he's so hyperactive and headstrong as town. I'm not sure how I feel about batsnacks and lian atm. I'm sure personal preference might have colored my reads so I'm going to let those thoughts do their own thing for a little while. I might come back with more reads tonight but I probably won't. I'll be around intermittently until tomorrow night when I can sit down and do things. baw hush i am literally typing a post rn :D | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 09 2015 08:04 Trfel wrote: Final Vote Count Day 1 LightningStrike (0): sicklucker (0): liancourt (0): VayneAuthority (8): liancourt, Half the Sky, Oatsmaster, LightningStrike, batsnacks, ObiWanShinobi, Breshke, Oatsmaster (1): 27ninjabunnies Half the Sky (3): mderg, sicklucker, 27ninjabunnies (0): Currently, VayneAuthority is set to be lynched with 5 votes. until deadline. First thought is LOL at trying to do vca on this. Two wagons, one town, the other unknown, clear majority, only outlier vote is confirmed town b/c she was shot right afterward. No layups  In situations like these where the main wagon is town and we don't know the other wagon, we first want to look at the rationale people gave for their votes. The first person I notice is myself, because I didn't give any, because I'm a donkey and I slept through EOD and only managed to slap a fast vote down to avoid mod sanction. No johns, I suck, sorry guys. Instead I'm going to look at the other people who coasted on the lead wagon. First is liancourt. Most of his d1 posting by far is pushing LightningStrike, then ObiWanShinobi. Then he ends up voting with both on VayneAuthority, because VA wasn't trying d1. This is an odd sequence of events to me because (1) I don't think that's the strongest case to be made on VA and (2) liancourt claims to have only given up on pushing LS and Obi because the pushes weren't getting traction, which should mean he didn't stop suspecting them, and yet he ends up voting for the same guy as them. I know that even if I had failed to convince people to kill my suspects, two of them voting together on someone would have given me a great deal of pause. liancourt just lets the kill happen. Second is Oatsmaster, his case on Vayne is also not the correct case IMO. It's weird that it's the opposite of liancourt's, and that in the course of discussing this read neither one of them ended up arguing with the other about it. I guess maybe he didn't have to push as hard because Vayne became the lynch fairly quick, but it seems like he pretty much parked his vote and left. === Other notes: - sicklucker and LightningStrike are probably town, they've both been pretty active and have pushed their lynch hard. I don't think either of the cases they made on their targets d1 were actually good, but I think they were genuine, which is all I need to see to make a read. - Half the Sky looks reasonably good to me as well. The one thing irking me a bit is that she read me as town for making a "detailed case" on Vayne when I don't remember ever doing so, but it's obvious she cares about the direction of the game. Her interaction with sicklucker about the past game seems sincere enough - I know it's not directly relevant to this game, but I think the entire conversation reads town, go open her filter and find that bit and read for yourselves so you can see what I mean - and she's been rather open with her thoughts. - batsnacks is sorta vulnerable to the same logic that implicates liancourt, but batsnacks still pushed reasonably hard on Obi while voting Vayne and tried to get a last-minute vote on Obi instead of Vayne. This strikes me as more of what I'd expect a townie to do if his primary suspect were off the table: go after a secondary one while taking his chances at getting the primary suspect killed instead. I also think he's been a lot more forthright and sincere than liancourt, so I find myself okay with batsnacks, even though to some extent he does the same thing that liancourt does. - Obi already called out liancourt for the big thing I noticed earlier, so he's town in my mind for now. Obi does end up criticizing the VA lynch while staying on it, but if you read his filter it seems fairly clear that he got caught with insufficient time to figure out anything else to do due to out-of-game constraints. It's not like he peaced out from the thread and coasted. I can give him a pass on that. === That's all I feel like doing right now, I'll do more later on but this seems good enough to start with. Town: me, Obi, HTS, SL, LS, bats Mafia: Oats, lian TBD: Breshke, lollipop, derg, Doc | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
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liancourt
1563 Posts
Eden is prolly town for trying to at least figure out the game when the thread was in stalemate. Although I don't think oats is playing greatly like the aggressive town player he is there are others who are very unmemorable for example, drparnassus and breshke or even lala. Town Bats Me eden ls obi oats hts sl mderg scum drparnassus lala breshke i'll look into one of these 3 later | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Additionally, if I'm right and HTS and VA were both town, mafia has no reason to push any particular lynch. They just want to cook up something plausible-sounding to get on the board and get a vote down. If their reasoning is contradictory, so much the better, it's harder to trace them to each other. And finally, even if the objection made sense and you couldn't be liancourt's partner, I don't really care. I analyzed you both as individuals and found you suspicious. The observation that neither of you argued with one another despite having contradictory reasoning doesn't tie you two together as partners, but it is suspicious of both of you individually. I'm going to kill individuals on their own demerits and not care about partners unless I see something more compelling, because "X and Y can't be partners because of ABC" is so easy to game in my experience (and one of my main weaknesses in my analyses as town) that it's not worth considering on its own. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:16 liancourt wrote: The amount of defense on LS and obi is overwhelming. Even if it's mafia defending town it'll mean they're town and mafia wouldn't defend their own this hard so I'll reluctantly ignore them for now. Eden is prolly town for trying to at least figure out the game when the thread was in stalemate. Although I don't think oats is playing greatly like the aggressive town player he is there are others who are very unmemorable for example, drparnassus and breshke or even lala. i'll look into one of these 3 later How's the defending of LS/obi "overwhelming" if the thread is "in stalemate"...? Seems like a stalled out thread would be more receptive to a push on your suspects, not less. And what's with the soft defense of Oats? You appear to use meta as a primary tool of evaluating people, yet you're disregarding what your analysis of the meta is apparently telling you. Instead you're scumreading my nulls for being unmemorable. Do you have any actual reason why they're mafia? | ||
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