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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On January 06 2015 13:16 Tubesock wrote: I did like Celestial's last post. I was hoping he'd come back though and talk more. Sorry, I had to sleep it was like 3am. Let me read the last couple of pages and I'll post my updated reads. | ||
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-Celestial-
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ExO_ still posting good analysis. Even though jumping from person to person the analysis is solid and seems to wait for an actual reason to post on someone else before doing it. I said town at the start and I'm still saying it now. Half the Sky I'd say is probably town at this point. Posted some nice discussion and I really like her last post. Not posting masses but its hard to criticise that when the thread is moving so slowly. Trfel has very little to go on but I'd probably say null leaning town. The little bit posted so far implies to me town but its a tiny, tiny amount to go off. Gumdrop null slightly leaning town. Even less to go on than Trfel but the single analysis post so far was ok and was some decent effort, even if I drastically disagree with the analysis of ExO_ who I'm pretty much certain is town right now. The comments about not being sure what to post I somewhat sympathise with (although I'm evidently far more gabby X-D ). Silverarte I just can't get a good reading on. Null. Only just started making any posts of real substance. I'd hesitate to call a D1 lynch here when there are better potential targets but one to keep an eye on. Tubesock explicitly asked me for my read of him past couple of posts. Hi. *waves* Not reading as strongly scum anymore so I'm not sure what to do with him. Back to null I guess. Last couple of posts were good. I still severely dislike his opening but has been getting involved recently and although not posting masses the motivation I'm getting is somewhat townie, but playing his cards quite close to his chest. I like that he's trying to force people to say more so we have more to go on. rsoultin I distrust somewhat but am more or less back to null now. Her early activity was very suspicious in my eyes which pushed torwards town but the more recent stuff like the assessment of The Shining was very convincing. A little more scummy activity would push me back towards scum though. TheWarWaffle hasn't changed since my last assessment. Leaning scum very strongly for me now. I didn't like his last post, as I stated last time, and literally nothing posted since then. So the grand total of contribution here is accusing HtS on the basis of her opening...which was exactly the same as she opened in a previous game when she was town...and then disappearing. Really, really not looking good in my eyes. The Shining started off null leaning town for me just because of limited amounts of information and the fact Shine was one of the few who posted some analysis, I didn't read too much into it until rsoultin pointed it out to be honest since it was just one post. Since rsoultin assessed that post I'm now leaning scum. The worst part for me is the whole "they read me as scum so I read THEM as scum" thing. It looks like just trying to deflect people's attention onto other people. Is also laying it on ExO_ who has been, all along, my strongest town read. Could definitely be convinced for a D2 lynch here. jarjarbinks I've got a very strong feeling is scum based off the posts made. First couple were a bunch of nothing. Then comes in and posts what I assessed the other page as incredibly scummy to me. Next up is a piggyback read that just reinforces someone else's view. Only real thing of substance has been that most recent post to ask what people think about me and has made no real attempt to answer my analysis of the earlier post or indeed change approach at all. Isn't making an attempt to scumhunt, isn't really contributing beyond echoing other people. If jarjar is town its the scummiest acting townie I've seen in any of the games I've looked at. LightningStrike is still my number one D1 lynch. Sorry.  I still feel bad about it because <3 LS. But still...ExO_'s analysis there was pretty damning in my eyes and the last few pages, although they've been increasingly implicating The Shining as well, hasn't really convinced me that LS is town. The early stuff was scummy, saying nothing and dancing around a "be nice to everyone and forget about me" thing. When called out on it posted a big analysis post that said very little of substance and lacked firmness. Contributing analysis for the sake of contributing analysis whilst trying to keep most of the other players happy and looking in another direction. Making excuses about "my scum hunting is bad day 1" (doesn't mean you shouldn't try, even if its difficult) and is now starting towards the Shining bandwagon that rsoultin is starting on. Not that I think its wrong but frankly its very easy to put in a "maybe you're right" to set up to bus The Shining if it looks like that actually gets started. Scum. Still <3 though.There we go. So...I guess for now... ##Vote: LightningStrike | ||
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-Celestial-
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##Vote: LightningStrike | ||
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-Celestial-
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On January 06 2015 23:19 rsoultin wrote: Okay. Parking my vote on the waffle or now. It took prodding to get him to post in the first place...after boldly proclaiming he was getting a ton out of people's wording without any follow-through as ExO pointed out...and then his post was on just one of HTS'. Since then (and that was early in the day) he's done diddly. I tend to agree with this assessment to be honest. I had WW down as leaning scum right from his early attempt at analysis but its just gotten drastically worse since then. | ||
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-Celestial-
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Also the quality of metareads is something of an unknown quantity anyway. But I'm willing to take a look a little later I guess (busy right now, that last post took ages). | ||
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-Celestial-
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I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore. I'm going to take a chance and remove my vote from there and put it on someone else. Its between WW, Shining and jarjar for me, as per my reads earlier. I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best candidate. His opening post was weak and he's said nothing since then but that isn't enough for me to lynch him at this early stage. I'd like to see more from Shining before I could put a vote down there. So I guess I'm going with jarjar for now since I have to vote for SOMEONE and frankly I really don't like his posting at all, it looks really scummy; was also the second highest read on my list so... ##Unvote ##Vote: jarjarbinks On January 07 2015 01:18 Tubesock wrote: -Celestial- Why is Rsoultin more scummy than Gumdrops, Trfel, Silver, and me? I get why you town ExO so hard, and HTS but not the next 3 on your list? I think I'm still somewhat tainted by rsoultin's original impression on me. I really, really didn't like what appeared to be bluehunting (the reasoning for which I posted a little while back, I can quote it if you like). Though she has improved somewhat since that I'm still wary. Gumdrops I've just flat out not seen enough from to make much of a judgement call. Same with Trfel. But both of them posted something that appeared to be reasonably thought out so slight leanings towards town. Trfel also stated in advance he wouldn't be around for a bit and Gumdrops just seems awkward about posting. I can't condemn either of them to scum for that. Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix. You didn't start great which is why I leaned you towards scum, but I didn't find your opening to be as scummy as rsoultins was and you've both improved in my eyes to the point where you're both back to neutral. But since rsoultin started off with slightly more damning posts you're slightly more in the townie direction than she is. | ||
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-Celestial-
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On January 07 2015 01:35 LightningStrike wrote: -Celestial- I noticed you ninja'd voting for JarJar can you explain why you voting for him? I just wondering that's all. I changed my vote as I was writing that last post so I wouldn't forget to change it. Please read.  | ||
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On January 07 2015 01:51 Tubesock wrote: Ah, I see our differences. I tend to disregard to some extent a person's first few posts. You appear to keep an even weighting on all of them. I do want to point out that you had 3-4 posts that were just about rsoultin's gender, or SC2 mafia or whatever. If I said them I think you would have scummed me even worse. Yet, I really only had the 1 post you didn't like, and it still pertained to the current game. But anyway, I do think you're town even if we don't agree on your town reads so much although we do agree on the scums. You make a fair point; but in defence of my reads I'm trying to disregard anything that doesn't actually pertain to the game itself (so off topic stuff I don't really look at unless its ALL there is). In your case I posted earlier why I didn't like your opening post and then you disappeared kinda so I didn't have a lot to go on and at that very early point it was very suspicious to me. Since then, of course, you've posted a lot more on-topic stuff which has helped a lot. | ||
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-Celestial-
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On January 07 2015 01:44 -Celestial- wrote: I changed my vote as I was writing that last post so I wouldn't forget to change it. Please read. EBWOP: Er...by that I mean "Please read above for my reasoning" not "Please learn to read, fool". Sorry, I didn't realise it could be interpreted that way until I looked just now. X-D | ||
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On January 07 2015 02:14 Tubesock wrote: I said, I want to know what she is GOING to vote. My point about -Celestial- is I think it's hypocritical to scum me for 1 post where I talk about policy or whatever and then he has 3 or 4 which have nothing to do with the game. I refuse to believe I wouldn't be scummed for that shit, but it's ok for him and the ones he was talking to. I already said I town read him so far, so clearly that means I'm not placing much weight on it in my read of him. Ah, now I see where the thing is coming from. I wasn't scumming you for just the policy comment. I was scumming you for that AND this: Looks like everyone is already gone asleep. I like that rsoultin is already building cases. I think JarJar is pretty funny. Maybe case building also runs in the family? To me at that point rsoultin looked to me like she was bluehunting. And jarjar had solely posted a post saying "I AM TOWN" several times, with some excuses about why he wasn't going to be about. In short, you'd posted positive comments on two people I had already developed a negative view over. Then you'd made an empty comment about how we need to lynch but it shouldn't be a policy lynch. And then you disappeared entirely. It was very early in the game by that point though, so I just had to go with what I had to work with but you hadn't left me with a good first impression. Since then you've done a lot better. Hence my change in read. | ||
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-Celestial-
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On January 07 2015 02:24 Tubesock wrote: I'm not sure. The WarWaffle wagon started from what I think is a pressure vote. I'm undecided if she's just piling on the most popular wagon early or not. She did say she would come back before the lynch, and I inferred she would reevaluate and go from there. warwaffle is a really safe vote for her if she's scum. Pretty sure it was a pressure vote by rsoultin wasn't it? Because of WW's claim that he had loads of stuff and then just going silent? Everyone seems to be running away with it for some reason and I just don't know why to be honest. I don't think WW is in the clear but I really don't think its our best lynch either. I agree with the assessment that its a safe vote if she's scum. But in and of itself I don't think it says she's scum. | ||
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On January 07 2015 04:28 Tubesock wrote: HTS, I know you're waiting on some responses to your questions from others, but do you have a D1 lynch list? I'm starting to get worried that with such little activity, and so many who still need to vote, that people are going to be doing bullshit shenanies at EoD. Do you have lynch targets outside of Shining, JarJar, and Warwaffle? I don't think so. I think that's basically the list at this point. Personally I think its a pretty reasonable list for the stage we're at too. @ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it. | ||
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On January 07 2015 04:49 Tubesock wrote: I don't know the proper way to deal with claims. To me, LS's "I'll claim if I have to" is a fucking claim. And it really irritates me, along with the meta stuff. The only towny thing I get from him is that he appears to be unafraid to post, and answer questions (aside from the little bit of heat to make him claim threaten). So, we vote him, he's going to claim. Now we will all panic and shenany on some shitty target that isn't vetted much. That's a lot to go wrong. I'd rather vote The Shining or jarjar. JarJar isn't following through really. He show's up, and leaves while I'm still here waiting on a question I've asked 4 times. I'm his #2 scum and his ideal scum play so why isn't he attacking me? I'm here to dance. I'll even wear a dress and you can call me pretty, but he just leaves. Warwaffle is the leading wagon at the moment I think. While it is for sure a pressure/policy vote we have to lynch him if he doesn't show up right? Honestly I really don't like the WW lynch. It just seems...well kinda silly honestly. | ||
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-Celestial-
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On January 07 2015 04:59 Trfel wrote: Wait, the voting deadline is tonight? I thought it was tomorrow night.... BTW I am here and am doing a careful rereading of the thread. I will post my thoughts and my vote when I am done, with explanations of course. Its in about four hours so we're running out of time a bit to settle on a first lynch. It'd be really nice to pick off a mafia right away but at the moment all we really have is a pressure wagon on WW. I guess its not the most terrible thing in the world (I've been suspicious of him for a while after all) but it still comes across as suboptimal. Not quite a "lynching for information" but pretty close. | ||
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I'm away for a while now anyway, got stuff to do and got to have dinner. I'll be back a little before the deadline to see where we stand. | ||
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But a softclaim like that just a few hours before the deadline when nobody is actually pushing you makes it look as if you're panicking honestly. And that makes me incredibly suspicious once more. | ||
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