Imperial Mafia - Page 94

On January 02 2015 15:39 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I'm inclined to agree with his first point so idk. SL has said some shit that i didn't like and some stuff i did like. i'll check his filter too.

I kinda have you leaning scummy rn eden, we might as well talk now since this my only day off work this week. I will have to be much less active for the next 4 days or so.

On January 02 2015 16:01 Eden1892 wrote:

What's up? I don't feel like messing with vote count analysis any more right now.

What do you think about geript? I feel like his explanation is obviously BS and yet at the same time it's hard to understand why he wouldn't just put the nail in town!batsnacks coffin if he were mafia.

On January 02 2015 15:58 Eden1892 wrote:
Alright, here's some vote count analysis. First, the count, hidden behind double quotes for readability. Added green for batsnacks' flip.


First thing I want to look at is outliers, because I think they tend to be easier to figure out. The three wagons at end of day were Chyz, geript and batsnacks, so all other voters are defined as outliers here. They are:

Superbia
ritoky
Koshi
geript

Additionally the nonvoting RebirthOfLegend can go here.

Superbia:
Has all of two posts in the game, neither of any substance. Says ritoky claimed mafia with their big reads post without explaining why, votes ritoky and then bails for the rest of the day, not bothering to convince anyone to vote for ritoky. Ignores JAT asking for an explanation, no one else really seems to care either way.

I don't like this. For all I can derive from Superbia's thought process from this vote, this might as well be a dice roll vote. There's nothing here for me to make any sense of. If Superbia is town and believes ritoky is mafia then why not try to convince anyone to kill ritoky? And if Superbia doesn't then why completely abandon the thread and not bother to try to figure out who is mafia?

ritoky:
After the vote (which came between his big reads list post and his next post itt), ritoky only brings up the case on sicklucker once... when sicklucker questions him on it. Spends most of the day being engaged in other discussions and feeling out other players for their direction, but doesn't push the case on sicklucker. And it's not even not pushing it because of a change of heart or anything, as far as I can see. The case is just dropped altogether without any mention, like it never existed. After talking to sicklucker there's only one passing reference to the suspicion at all (responding to GlowingBear and saying they were "on the same page" concerning, among others, sicklucker).

This is really suspicious considering how aggressively ritoky pushed early in the game. Even allowing for a change in posting style due to time constraints resulting from ER work, you figure that if ritoky is still sure about the read on sicklucker that there'd be some effort to push it. And ritoky can't even claim to have had a change of heart, because sometime during ritoky's last burst of activity, (s)he posted an updated vote count including the vote for sicklucker. I feel like if I were a townie here and I had posted that vote count update after suspecting sicklucker, and I had internally changed my mind about sicklucker being mafia, posting that I was voting for sicklucker would be a wakeup call. Like "whoa, wait, I'm still on that guy? I need to move my vote."

Koshi:
Arrived at suspicion of Vivax about an hour before posting a vote, pressed Vivax on a few key questions during that hour, pushed the hell out of a Vivax lynch before going to bed at a time which 100% syncs up with his irl location.

Sorry that was short but this looks clean as can be. Only reason Koshi was on an outlier was because of a lack of time to push the case once it formulated. Koshi is probably town.

geript:

This is garbage.

Vivax wasn't a viable wagon at all when geript posted and geript had enough time to see that. It was 20 minutes before the lynch. The switch wasn't even last-second, it was last-hour. At the time he voted Chyz was in no danger of being voted off. How do you check in to a voting thread and vote for someone who isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed? And especially if you "get why Bat was sketch," how in the world do you have a hangup about voting for him and instead park on an outlier?

And then there's this gem shortly before:



So now it's checking into a voting thread, voting for someone you're not even sure is mafia who also isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed.

geript has a lot of explaining to do. Doc asks a good question about why mafia!geript does this in light of batsnacks flipping town; I feel like the answer that came to mind for me (not wanting to be a town wagon) isn't a very good one, and it's still the best one I have. But I don't get the townie mindset that leads to ^^^that.


TL;DR
ritoky, Superbia mafia
geript wtf

On January 02 2015 16:00 IAmRobik wrote:

You shouldn't do such baller analysis -- you might die in the night.

P.S. I came to the same conclusion as your regarding your scum reads. Excellent work