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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On December 14 2014 04:07 GlowingBear wrote: Lonemeow: killed by mafia Kush: visited by Marley Koshi: killed by mafia Kita: killed by mafia (3kp already) Damdred: ? Do you think there are 4 mafia kp dude? Seriously? I think our Arnold killed Kush. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On December 14 2014 04:11 batsnacks wrote: I'm trying to understand what you're saying. SL thought that only joyful children got presents. He spent a -long- time not understanding that presents were random. I think he actually thought he had a special role... he even said that he didn't understand named VTs. What I am saying is that by accepting that explanation, you are saying he is stupid. Are you saying he's stupid? Tell me how that is anything but amazingly stupid play? And that you actually think he is that stupid? We spend all this effort finding the BEST lynch and it's always the one we think is the best PLAYER because we think they are the ones that contribute to mafia the most. IT's not, it's the ones who survives. He is going to outlive us all. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On December 14 2014 04:14 Half the Sky wrote: I'm back. Full schedule plus the bikram yoga class from hell. Never again. Anyhow... I read the thread - couple points I want to bring up from these last few pages: Tube, this quote I do not understand. In what universe as town would you not want to take out a scum (be it FF or whoever) or someone you have tapped for doing "scum things"? I know Rasputin has pointed out association reads already, but Tube, if you think someone's going to flip mafia, you should always want to take them out and push them. The information gathering part makes no sense. Xatalos, I'm not sure I agree. I actually want to say this is WIFOM. It is possible that because the mistake is or may be so obvious, that Froggy (or any other scum) might also try to bus instead. Not sure if this is sure POE. Reviewing the cases against Holyflare and GB atm. Rasputin, I also questioned the logic behind role claiming largely because of the scum KP and couldn't work out a situation in favour of town. GB cited another example where it worked, but was KP/mechanics the same? *shrug* Honestly, at the time I wasn't sold on FecalFeast. When I thought GlowingBear was mafia, I thought he was there to protect Sicklucker. The reality I think, and I have a huge post that storylines that I will paste in a couple hours, is that Sicklucker is the one who is protecting the mafia. FecalFeast I was unsure of. I saw KeslierSC and FecalFeast going back and forth. I was thinking it's a distraction, while we centered on what you thought of NinjaBunny and actually hang her. At the time, I thought it was very smart. Kelsier is involved with the beginning of NinjaBunny's downfall and then can "slip" away and find someone else to target for a mlynch. (Assuming he's mafia). Their back and forths were pretty clumsy and half assed I felt. So, I thought Fecal was mafia, the real action was on Ninja. If any attention went towards Kel or Fecal then their other mafia buddies would lend a hand and deflect back if needed. This is also when Sick came along. And LightningStrike with his irrelevant meta "reads". Notice you haven't seen LS all day? Why, when we are doing most the work. Kels made his obligatory 1 post for the day and claimed he's ill. Now, read page 102. pay attention to who SICK is "defending". Imagine Glow is town. I hope you see the one I did. He jumped out at me and then with that in mind, he tied 6 mafia together for me. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On December 14 2014 04:23 batsnacks wrote: I am not saying SL is stupid. I'm saying he misunderstood something... and there is plenty of evidence that suggests he did. SL also over thinks stuff a lot. I can easily see SL taking one basic misunderstanding way too far. That's what I think looks like happened. You're basing your strongest scum read on something that can be explained easily by one simple misunderstanding. You're pretty much betting your life in the game on that. AND EVEN IF SL IS SCUM he isn't going to get lynched today. Find a better place for your vote. Yes, I am shooting the moon if you didn't notice. I AM RIGHT. Lynch me, I flip town, take heed maybe you will lynch your favorite from my 6. which i will publish soon. He will flip mafia. Keep going till I'm wrong. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
You are right, but SIcklucker is WAY MORE DANGEROUS. Did you reread page 102? It's but one page. See how he is setting you up? See how he is protecting your target? | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
It's just a little step. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
I do absolutely think I can be wrong. This is why I'm hoping and asking for help, if people don't see what I see and have asked many times, then it's not right. But, my reads have slightly changed. I'm replacing GB, in my published 4 (temp, kel, sick and GB) and my 5th changed and found my 6th. But before I say, I think I need people to try more to see from my eyes. When they do, they will understand more. It's just like my interaction with Slam. He had no interest in me. I showed him I had something he wanted. Unfortunately, he (and the rest of you) thought I personally attacked him. I did not. I was seeing if we saw eye to eye. Now, I think he sees that I wasn't at all insulting him. Not one bit. Specifically, aviation isn't like professional sports, the best pilots are not necessarily the best pilots. Amateurs and professionals are equal. We are all pilots. I think Slam would agree. So, I need to figure out how to convey my thoughts on who I think are mafia. Unless I do that, then no matter what I say will be useless. Absolutely useless. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On December 14 2014 04:36 Trfel wrote: I agree, I don't really want to lynch Tubesock here. And yes, I realize that makes me a potential #2 in line. I think that we can find something better before the deadline. I saw your question, rsoultin. I'm reading over Holyflare's filter again, then I'll get to ritoky's filter. I'll post conclusions when I am finished. HF is scum, but his play is flawless and absolutely brilliant. You can only catch him if you see the big picture. Or at least a part of it. Read my last page or two of filter. Read the longer posts that only have normal tone in them. If it's cryptic or whatever it's not very useful, I try to explain most things. Look for what I think about temp's RNG play and Kelsier's role in it. Then read pages 14- 18. IF you look at it and think that everypost is perfectly played by Temp, Kel, Froggy, and Sick can you see any pattern? What do you think Sick gains from his entrance? What did he gain? Total and complete irrelavance. He's not anyone's target. Tell me a better mafia strategy. Think about how well it's working. Think about how well it's manipulating things. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
LoneWolf a carol singer is DEAD now. His first few pages, had 3 of my list on them. Damdred is a PERFECT example to cast even MORE doubt on GlowingBear who has been protecting Sicklucker the poor little confused JOYFUL CHILD. Why kill Damdred? Well, he and I are the only ones to point out that the RNG can be rigged. HF, Froggy, and KELS all downplayed fixing RNG. I got Templar to admit that yes, yes in fact it can be fixed. Has he really posted since? Has he attacked me or someone else? Koshi and Kita. Who did they spare with? Did you think they were our best players? I did. Kita was just smart, and he was a big threat for skill reasons. What was Koshi up to? Who did he suspect? | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
##Vote KElsier | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
Sicklucker – HolyFlare – Froggy - The_Templar – KelsierSC – LightningStrike Mafia is a game where the Town hunts the Mafia and the Mafia hunt for Scapegoats. My assumptions. 1) Everyone plays optimally. Day[9] advises low level players on this when they ask “But everyone in bronze does such WEIRD stuff? How do you read that??” – just go kill them. 2) It’s about finding motivations and big picture. You can’t find 1 at a time. It’s about relationships and the patterns you can find that shows malicious intent. Sicklucker is playing a phenomenal game. It’s in fact SUPERB. He’s not noobing anything. He’s got us so confused. I’m sorry GlowingBear you are the Scapegoat. I thought Sicklucker was being protected by GlowingBear. Oh no I was so wrong. Sicklucker is the protector. Why doesn’t anyone want to kill Sick? Well, he’s just noob, he’s no threat. He had ALL of us fooled. I realized this on D2 when he kept coming at me. Obviously nitpicking me, obviously DEFENDING GlowingBear. On page 102 Sicklucker “defends GlowingBear by saying rsoultin is too good rsoultin is obviously mafia. Sicklucker said he “sent” his gift to HolyFlare. Sick is playing PERFECTLY. We all discarded him. He’s ridiculous and no threat. GlowingBear AND rsoultin will flip town. HolyFlare tells Sick to stop with this, stop with that, all the while it reinforces Sickluckers non threat to us. He’s too obvious. But what we didn’t understand is HE IS THE PROTECTOR. My D1 play was atrocious. Who here can say they listened to ANYTHING I said? D2 I exploded. Who paid attention to me? Templar came at me. HolyFlare tried but I didn’t bite. I didn’t realize at the time he should have been my target and not GlowingBear. It’s a good thing too. I think I would have lost. I had nothing on him really, not until I realized Sick was the protector and then read page 102. No post of GlowingBear is helpful to town except for his long part 1 post. Why was he the only one to respond to me like that? No one on this kill list has. It’s because GlowingBear didn’t think Sicklucker was a threat. Sicklucker attached himself somewhat subtlety. GlowingBear didn’t think I was a threat either. Not until he was getting run over by HolyFlare and “defended” by Sicklucker. Then he had motivation because there were real teeth on him. Sicklucker tried to nitpick me and put in more effort to trap me than he has for anyone in the game. I ignored him. Who comes to help him out? Templar. Then I respond and answer the questions. As I notice that more and more people are seeing me, noticing me, and being threatened by me, I knew I was on the right path. I disrupted Mafia. I brought their game to them. Mafia is supposed to disrupt town. Not today. I bet not 1 single town here thought I made any sense. HolyFlare was trying to get me to respond to him so he could engage. But I was focused. I only saw my scum and Alakaslam. Seriously, all of you thought my posts were too cryptic/annoying/confusing or insulting. Alakaslam noticed I was only talking to him. Did you notice how all of a sudden HolyFlare and others became convinced GlowingBear was mafia? Why was HolyFlare attacking GlowingBear? It’s a safe bet. It’s just like how he killed NinjaBunny. Don’t let him kill GlowingBear. Back to Templar. He opened the game with RNG that he admits he could do. Lands on Kelsier. The two of them go hunting for a scapegoat. We think this is just pushing the thread and hunting mafia. They find Ninjabunny. Now, if they trap her it’s too obvious but they can lead. Next we have Froggy enter and offer another thread driving play with his plynch non comment. Do you remember this exchange? It’s pages 14-18ish. Ninja gets asked to comment and then suddenly HolyFlare appears and offers up the first legit feeling ##Vote: NinjaBunny. This seals her fate. We all now have a target. Froggy can leave with only 1 post. Did he even come back? HolyFlare watches but mostly lets us hang her, he hunts for a scapegoat. I can see why LeonMeow was so paranoid of your play. You, HolyFlare, are brilliant. KelsierSC also leaves Ninja be and finds his scapegoat. And now we still have FecalFeast in our sights. They went back and forth all D1, but it’s past ¾ of the way through D2 and nothing from Kel yet?? I call him out, and GO HARD on my listed 4. He knows, mafia KNOWS that if he shows, I will run him over. He was the 3rd scummiest play D1. He would get crushed. Mafia must keep the focus on GlowingBear. Course, GlowingBear gets drunk and basically ensures that he has to die now to confirm his innocence. Remember Sicklucker’s entrance? BRILLIANT. He comes in with the DUMBEST thing ever. He REPEATS his first line and STILL we don’t give him any attention. Can ANY of you think of a more brilliant play to stay under the radar? He was right in our face. This enabled him to hunt for his Scapegoat, and found GlowingBear. LightningStrike enters. His D1 contributions were entirely meta reads from random games. D2 there is basically nothing. I see 3 wagons developing GlowingBear, FecalFeast, and I. When I flip, it confirms my motivation. I think GlowingBear’s flip will tell us more than a FecalFeast. FecalFeast could be replaced with LightningStrike just as easily so isn’t as strong a confirmation as GlowingBears. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
vote HF | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On December 14 2014 05:17 liancourt wrote: The fact that tube is spewing out scum reads should mean something. Totally bleeding town putting way too much effort to be mafia. Get on the kel wagon There is an HolyFlare wagon now. This will go. Both will flip mafia. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
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