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On December 17 2014 06:14 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2014 06:11 froggynoddy wrote:
I see. But if HF is town then it makes little sense for rit to go on Kelsier (I know I'm slow to the party...). Is rit+GB+HF scum team viable? Seems like super risky scum play to me. -shrugs- It's a good question. I've already explained how it's possible, but it assumes both GB and rit are scum. If GB doesn't want HF to flip, and GB and rit are working together, then it's not a stretch that rit doesn't want HF to flip either. It is possible that they're all scum, anything's possible...but fighting like this seems like it would be hard to sustain this long.
I don't likt this logic. I think it would be quite easy to sustain a concerted argument as scum, you can pretty much rehearse it in QT no? If you can consider it possible for GB and rit working together then you to also have to consider GB and HF working together.
I personally think GB slightly more likley than HF if rit flips. But I think there might be others I want to look to first (like SL + Oats). I still think Templar looks bad.
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On December 17 2014 06:17 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2014 06:14 froggynoddy wrote:
Well come to think of it. If Rit jumps on HF and HF flips town. Then Kelsier + Rit team is pretty much confirmed. Whilst if he goes on to Kelsier, then only Kelsier (who he knew would flip) is confirmed and Rit has time to make more moves.
Does that make sense? I have posted this several times yes.
OK sorry. Am struggling to absorb everything in 1 + 2 bouts of reading per day.
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Hang on. Rit has to have opened the present as scum. If he passed it on and guessed then he had a 50% chance of being wrong right?? (that seems an incredibly risky play as scum does it not?).
No one had claimed getting the seer present at that time or am I being thick?
If he is scum and he opened the present then he would almost certainly have shot someone that night. 2 people died N2 so he was RB'ed by medic or he shot into a vet (or scum KP-ed into a vet).
I feel that the above scenario is the only one that makes sense if rit is scum. And I feel like there are too many iffs... why do I doubt like everything...
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On December 17 2014 06:45 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2014 06:19 froggynoddy wrote:
I personally think GB slightly more likley than HF if rit flips. But I think there might be others I want to look to first (like SL + Oats). I still think Templar looks bad. What in particular reinforced your read of him? (since you said you still think...) Also wrapped up your case Rasputin on GB....looking good. Couldn't find any issues. At this point, let's just see what happens with Ritoky and take things from there.
I don't think its reinforced. I just think he has done nothing to dispell my earlier impression of appearing to help and being present in town discussions, without actually putting much content that genuinely helps town.
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Yeah, my reasoning on templar can pretty much be applied to slam. I just have no idea whether he is just insane...
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I'm pretty sure slam is testing waters for an easy lurker lynch on me to divert the wagon. Possibly GB also as he has mentioned multiple times that he thinks I am scum.
That being said I have been pretty shit so I can understand why a townie would want to lynch me. You'd just think they'd do a better job of it if they were town i.e. not float a read and not actually vote/ try convinving people.
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On December 17 2014 06:46 froggynoddy wrote:
Hang on. Rit has to have opened the present as scum. If he passed it on and guessed then he had a 50% chance of being wrong right?? (that seems an incredibly risky play as scum does it not?).
No one had claimed getting the seer present at that time or am I being thick?
If he is scum and he opened the present then he would almost certainly have shot someone that night. 2 people died N2 so he was RB'ed by medic or he shot into a vet (or scum KP-ed into a vet).
I feel that the above scenario is the only one that makes sense if rit is scum. And I feel like there are too many iffs... why do I doubt like everything...
BTW does anyone have thoughts on this? I'm just starting to feel that rit might just be stupid rather than scum. I think its too late to do anything about it but thoughts?
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On December 17 2014 06:52 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2014 06:52 froggynoddy wrote:
Yeah, my reasoning on templar can pretty much be applied to slam. I just have no idea whether he is just insane... I am insane actually, sup?
I was talking about slam.
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I guess. As mentioned previously I suppose Rit has to die as otherwise our D4 will be so screwed.
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No forget my stupid doubts. I think a last minute switch would damage town regardless of Rit's alignment at this stage..
As for better lynches:
I don't like SL or GB but part of me thinks that's partially OMGUSING on my part cuz from what I have read they just say really dumb/unnecessarily aggresive stuff. GB scummier than SL as per your case and my thoughts on it but not enough to go off rit.
Templar, slam and perhaps Oats are scummy lurkers rather than simply AFK/ town lurkers for reasons previously disclosed.
Vivax I am a little worried about. Says some reasonable stuff but doesn't... actually ... do anything as far as I can tell.
So the answer in short is no. No better reads.
Squeaky bum time it is.
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On December 17 2014 12:23 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2014 12:01 Holyflare wrote:On December 17 2014 11:52 GlowingBear wrote:On December 17 2014 11:42 rsoultin wrote:Lol I guess we're all mafia then, according to GB logic  How do you know the person who gave it to him is even still alive, GB? We've got a lot of dead right now ^^ If he has got the present day3, the person was still alive day2. I the person was still alive day2, if it wasn't Kelsier who gave the present to HF, it was either obi or Trfel. Considering Trfel ended up voting HF and obi wasn't sure about HF, they probably didn't send him the present. My question continues: who sent the present to holyflare? I didn't send the present to fecal you tool i got the present n1 and sent it on day 2. That person then sent it to fecal day 3 and here we are with fecal receiving it n3. And that person is...? Rsoultin, it's pretty clear who I'm scumreading right now and you can take froggynoddy out of that list. I may be wrong on SL because he claimed that he sent a present to damdred and maybe, MAYBE mafia preferred to kill damdy instead of roleblocking him night2. I don't really know. Really, you should read what I wrote. There are some mistypings but you can clearly see my stream of thought. You've been hard defending HF and ignoring my points and trying to discredit me for a long time. I'm ignoring you because you're either scum or donkey town for now. I think I have just one more post left now. Gonna really try to sleep.
As flattered as I am you've called me scum most of the game. Why are you flip-flopping on every single read?
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On December 17 2014 22:27 rsoultin wrote:
My issue with froggy is he very suddenly became active Day 3. Most active I've seen him. Could easily interpret that to have some sort of special significance...but regardless I doubt he's a good Day 4 lynch unless we just like to gamble lol.
(Also, not really sure that we should be lynching anyone at this point based solely on filter length. Filter length+content I'm good with.)
That's a fair criticism. The answer is rather banal. GF is on the night shift (as is the case tonight) so have more time to read/post. I also felt rather guilty for potentially getting myself mis-lynched due to my inactivity.
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So I have been thinking. I think Mafia had to have the remaining presents as it makes no sense for Rit to guess with a 50% chance of being wrong and leavig yourself vulnerable to a counterclaim. I feel like the only logical play for Ritovky was to claim vig-present to hide a mass-murderer shot and confuse town.
This must (you'd think) have been vetted by his scum-buddies. This means that scum should have had both presents as otherwise the risk would be too great.
So I guess my question is... how does FF have a present as town?
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Guys you are completely missunderstanding what I am saying. It makes very little sense for this present to be a bomb. It makes no sense for Ritovky to even have a present as scum (as he has a shot and cannot use two actions I think - need to check the set-up rules).
But what does make sense is that they can safely fake claim opening a vigi present. This must mean (unless they play some sort of risky play as described by HF) that they had control or knowledge of all the presents.
Unless they only have 1 present left and that they knew that it was a bomb would they pass that present to a town FF. That situation just does not make sense as I don't think that the vig presnet has been opened (unless scum worked out from their KP that one of the N1 shots must have been a present?? UNlikely).
Again I think either FF is scum or they are making a really weird attempt of framing FF...
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EPT
