EPTHearthstone Mafia - Page 3
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 01 2014 09:23 Blazinghand wrote: This is a fair question. The fact of the matter is, every rng lynch discussion that doesn't roll the dice goes like this. People basically vaguely talk about how rng is not great, or talk about stats about historical rng, or whatever. Nobody gets invested, nobody cares, nobody gives away reads, nobody is under pressure, and nobody gets lynched. Take a look at the low tier policy talk in ANY game. What makes me, and my RNG, different, is that it selects a target before people discuss whether it's good or not. Now scum are on the line. Now they suddenly feel a need to justify or NOT justify voting for or not voting for GB, who is probably their scumbuddy. They're in a tough spot and it absolutely wrecks scumteams. I'm different than most people, jrkirby. Most people don't policy. Most people don't have the rock-hard, cast-iron BALLS to push policy like I do. Policy isn't REAL unless you're willing to go balls to the wall to lynch your policy target. And by jove, I WILL lynch GB, just as I've lynched so many others with the power of RNG. It is inevitable. I guess this is fair enough to me. I have a slight town-lean read on GB, but I think RNG can be very powerful day 1. If anyone trys RNG after day one, I will want to lynch you though. So I'm going to drop my slight town read on GB and my vote on the unproductive LT in favor of the power of RNG. This is a hearthstone flavored game here. Just so everyone knows, this is a vote for RNG, not for GB in particular. BY FIRE BE PURGED. + Show Spoiler + Cause Ragnaros has a random target, yeah? ##Unvote: Lord Tolkein ##Vote: GlowingBear | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 01 2014 09:35 Alakaslam wrote: Except hitting scum more than day1 analysts This is why I'm following the RNG. Sure it might disagree with my reads, but what real use are day 1 reads anyway? They've been shown historically to almost never lynch scum. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/390080-tl-mafia-database?page=10#185 > The day one lynch percentage is still slightly below random, but not if you exclude newbie games. And I guess this isn't a newbie game. So perhaps I was wrong. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 01 2014 10:26 ritoky wrote: what strikes me as odd is that wasn't it circ who came in to hard defend jrkirby early on when he was being pressured? then once again jrkirby starts to take interest in a gb lynch and now circ is suddenly around and interested? there's something funky goin on between these two. No. GB lynch was not what I was interested in. Random lynch was. But after searching for the source on why RNG lynch is good, I'm actually rethinking whether it's a good idea. I'm going to put my vote back on LT so hopefully he becomes more serious and actually plays the game in a useful way. Or gets lynched as scum. ##Unvote: GlowingBear Vote: Lord Tolkein | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 01 2014 10:31 GlowingBear wrote: Ritoky, Kirby thought I was suspicious because I quickly jumped into conclusions, and that circumstance was town because he was thinking logically and wasn't jumping into conclusions. Now he thinks I'm town mean but he is okay with RNGing me? When did I get townie to his eyes? But this is unflipped association. Not good yet. I just don't think he would instantly call his scum partner town that early. But his is WIFOM. I never called you suspicious or scummy. I just thought the conclusions you jumped to were unfounded. Townies make unfounded conclusions all the time. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 01 2014 12:43 liancourt wrote: really? ur going to vote RNG, the person who has been driving convo along? For real? For some reason I recalled reading that RNG had a better chance or lynching scum day 1 than the average game. When challenged to find a source for this, I found something that said it's true, but only for newbie games. Check my filter for the link. I changed my opinion on RNG after that. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 01 2014 09:35 Alakaslam wrote: Except hitting scum more than day1 analysts He says that RNG is better than town at lynching scum d1. I thought I'd read this elsewhere, so I immediately took it at face value. After looking for my original source, and getting something that contradicted it, I looked in further to what Alakaslam said about RNG in previous games. I found this from a couple months ago: On July 11 2014 11:27 Alakaslam wrote: Actually RNG has a higher chance of hitting scum than TL's recent met- (Looks at recent game scum d1 lynch statistics) Foget RNG what we gonna do He knows RNG is not the best option. He's looked it up before. But he's pushing it anyway? And making claims about it that are false? My scum-sense is on tingling. And since LT has posted good content now, this is a perfect time to move my vote over to him. ##Unvote: Lord Tolkein ##Vote: Alakaslam Also, the way that he pushed the jay analysis is kinda weird. But that might just be how he plays. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 01 2014 21:26 Alakaslam wrote: There is no tongue-in-cheek Ok Slam. So if I was a dumb idiot and that post I quoted was sarcasm, then back it up. What's your evidence that RNG is more likely to hit scum than day 1 non-RNG lynch? I'll happily follow any strategy that has the best chance of hitting scum. Give me evidence that RNG is the best, and I'll resume that strategy. Also, if you believe in RNG, why the hell isn't your vote on GlowingBear. Just saying "Oh, it was all a joke" isn't going to cut it. You need to back up your claims on one side or the other. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 02 2014 00:01 Seuss wrote: I just realized jrkirby is casing Alakaslam because of a misunderstood joke. /boggle Am I a complete buffoon here? What is alakaslam's real opinion on RNG? | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 02 2014 01:17 Alakaslam wrote: You still don't get it. However, Kita once came into the thread and pointed out that one time he claimed this it was actually untrue; town had done exceptionally well for d1 analysis for a bit and beat RNG entirely. So, since it landed on GlowingBear (lol) then I think levity is an understandable response. However GB's response wasn't the best XD Anyway, you somehow think I honestly advocated what I did not follow up with my vote or push with any sort of strength. In fact all I have pushed for at this point You must not know BH. BH has no qualms with making blatantly false claims to line up with his policies. Notice I did not vote GlowingBear despite  BlazingHand Many times it has been claimed by He That Is Great that RNG is better than analysis day 1. However, Kita once came into the thread and pointed out that one time he claimed this it was actually untrue; town had done exceptionally well for d1 analysis for a bit and beat RNG entirely. So, since it landed on GlowingBear (lol) then I think levity is an understandable response. However GB's response wasn't the best XD Anyway, you somehow think I honestly advocated what I did not follow up with my vote or push with any sort of strength. In fact all I have pushed for at this point really is JayBrundage analyze by the cat, And I have even joked about that. (Puts on a bowler hat And gets in a Cadillac) Well I guess either I suck at reading or slam sucks at posting. Maybe both. Anyway, ##Unvote: Alakaslam ##Vote: Misder | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 02 2014 02:11 GlowingBear wrote: Why are you ignoring the ongoing discussion? Sorry I was getting caught up a page. Alakaslam warranted a response. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
On November 02 2014 02:21 Damdred wrote: I'll take bad town, not any different from most of the thread. And look at jrkirby he once again changed vote when it wasn't going in the way that he wanted I changed vote when I realized I was completely misreading what alakaslam meant. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
It just doesn't smell like a towny BH. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
To me, damdred reads like bad town, cracking under pressure. You shouldn't care that he claims blue though, because it looks like all the reds are going to have random powers too. But overall, it doesn't read like scum, more like clueless town to me. + Show Spoiler [Crazy Theory, not important] + Although I did for a second entertain a crazy theory - GlowingBear and Damdred are scumbuddies. GB pushes the Damd lynch day one, if it flips mafia he gets an easy rest of game. He's been on Damd's case since the beginning of the game literally. | ||
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